Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[madmaxmedia]

US mortality rate is currently at 1.5% in total. Still heavily skewed towards old & underlying conditions, WA state care facility. If the top level rate drops to 0.5%, what is the plan then? Full panic still?

Yes, because if 75% of America gets infected (current curve if not stopped in a worst case), that's still a lot. Also you can't just look at deaths man. Look at people with permanently damaged lungs that live. Look at those that will get divorce papers, lose their homes, lose their jobs. I hate when people minimize this kind of stuff.

Some people will come out of this alive WISHING they died.

The big issue is that if 75% of the US population gets infected, the mortality rate will be FAR higher than 1.5% because so many will die because they're won't have access to ICU, ventilators, etc. Doctors will be forced to choose who to try to save, and who to just pray for. This is Italy right now.

Yes, it will be confined mostly to older and those with underlying conditions. But if 75% of our population gets infected, we will be close to a situation like Iran where they're digging mass burial sites.

[Johnny Bball]

Me too.

But it really isn't something to be totally stressed about. Here's why:

America has a population of 327 million. That means for it to even reach 1% of the population, it would have to spread to 32.7 million people. So far in Wuhan the total cases are under 100 thousand. I feel like even if it were to hit 32.7 million people across the US they would have a vaccine by then. And lets say 5% are fatal, that would be a total of 1.6 million deaths. Which is A LOT. Crazy a lot.

But is only 0.004% of the total population.

And that would be the worst case in my opinion because I don't see it reaching 32.7 million people, that's a ridiculously high number. And even if it were to approach numbers that high, I think vaccines will be created by then because it will take a long time to get there.

Bad math bruh!

It's only 0.004 because they aren't testing.

Put on your reading glasses fam. 1.6 MILLION out of 327 million is 0.004%. Do you think 1.6 Million people are going to be dead in the US anytime soon? Also testing has nothing to do with my equation. I'm saying hypothetically even if the virus reaches 32.7 MILLION people, that's still only 1% of the population. And 5% fatalities of that would be 1.6 million which = 0.004%.

Of course I still think that would be a huge number of deaths and it's not like rainbows and butterflies, but for it to even get to 0.004% fatalities / total US population, 32.7 million people would need to catch it.

32.7 mil is 10% of the population bud. My reading glasses are on.

As for testing, well, maybe it was unrelated...their numbers are way off and artificially low is all I mean. You will see a real rise more than doubling numbers in the coming week when they start testing properly. If they ever start testing people properly, instead of just quarantining anyone with symptoms without testing.

[SF_Warriors]

US mortality rate is currently at 1.5% in total. Still heavily skewed towards old & underlying conditions, WA state care facility. If the top level rate drops to 0.5%, what is the plan then? Full panic still?

Yes, because if 75% of America gets infected (current curve if not stopped in a worst case), that's still a lot. Also you can't just look at deaths man. Look at people with permanently damaged lungs that live. Look at those that will get divorce papers, lose their homes, lose their jobs. I hate when people minimize this kind of stuff.

Some people will come out of this alive WISHING they died.

Death rate is just one factor, which is higher than the flu. The main issue with this virus is that it is much more contagious than a flu, and also people can spread the disease without even showing any kind of symptoms.

Hospitalization rate is high, which leads to overwhelmed healthcare systems. This is causing deaths and issues for people of other ailments who may otherwise need the care of doctors and nurses who are stretched very thin. With such a high hospitalization rate, if concerts, events, schools, etc were still allowed to happen (people will still go, many need to be protected from themselves) the economy would eventually collapse completely. Hell, even with lockdown, we are basically in a recession.

This is something to take seriously.

[Sisqo]

Disagree and think it needs to be said. Are there really Chinese being attacked now over here?

Our media is much more worried about politics and putting the blame on Trump then the original problem.

not interested in getting into it on Trump other than to say as the leader of the country and one who was actively working against taking measures early, he absolutely deserves a ton of criticism.

That said, it's clear that someone was able to get through to him and the US Govt seems to be all-in on trying to deal with this now so I'm not going to waste time or energy playing the blame game. There will be time enough once we are through the crisis to identify some issues that contributed to making the issue worse.

And no it doesn't need to be said over and over. Everyone knows where the virus first started spreading. And yes Asians are getting harassed by ignorant people being led by Trump and others continuing with that labeling.

And sorry but that sucks and is needless.

And im sure to you it was also racist and fear mongering early when he put in the china travel ban.

That's a poor assumption because they are two different things.

No one is debating where it came from, the point is Trump has a lot of people who hang on his every word who might not be the most intelligent and get that he's referring to where it came from. They are going to treat Chinese people differently. S regardless of it being true that it came from China, he could reduce some of that hate by just calling it Covid-19. It's his arrogance that will stop him from doing it.

[MotownMadness]

There is few more Russians scientist claim it's man made. Bat and snake don't go along.

Man made as in butchering up exotic animals together caged on top of each other with human contact?

They ate them for generations. Their people went through a lot of starving throughout their history, some human cannibalism been reported as well.
Also it's not like other nations don't eat exotic and dirty animals.

So your telling me nothing happens if you cut up a virus filled bat with your bare hands and get it in a cut or wipe its blood on your mouth as a daily job in a market.

Not to mention every other exotic animal thats never been around each other suddenly caged together sharing urine, **** and blood

[JHTruth]

US mortality rate is currently at 1.5% in total. Still heavily skewed towards old & underlying conditions, WA state care facility. If the top level rate drops to 0.5%, what is the plan then? Full panic still?

Yes, because if 75% of America gets infected (current curve if not stopped in a worst case), that's still a lot. Also you can't just look at deaths man. Look at people with permanently damaged lungs that live. Look at those that will get divorce papers, lose their homes, lose their jobs. I hate when people minimize this kind of stuff.

Some people will come out of this alive WISHING they died.

Death rate is just one factor, which is higher than the flu. The main issue with this virus is that it is much more contagious than a flu, and also people can spread the disease without even showing any kind of symptoms.

Hospitalization rate is high, which leads to overwhelmed healthcare systems. This is causing deaths and issues for people of other ailments who may otherwise need the care of doctors and nurses who are stretched very thin. With such a high hospitalization rate, if concerts, events, schools, etc were still allowed to happen (people will still go, many need to be protected from themselves) the economy would eventually collapse completely. Hell, even with lockdown, we are basically in a recession.

This is something to take seriously.

There is no "high hospitalization rate". That is abject nonsense. Most carriers either show no or only very mild symptoms.

[Texas Chuck]

Disagree and think it needs to be said. Are there really Chinese being attacked now over here?

Our media is much more worried about politics and putting the blame on Trump then the original problem.

not interested in getting into it on Trump other than to say as the leader of the country and one who was actively working against taking measures early, he absolutely deserves a ton of criticism.

That said, it's clear that someone was able to get through to him and the US Govt seems to be all-in on trying to deal with this now so I'm not going to waste time or energy playing the blame game. There will be time enough once we are through the crisis to identify some issues that contributed to making the issue worse.

And no it doesn't need to be said over and over. Everyone knows where the virus first started spreading. And yes Asians are getting harassed by ignorant people being led by Trump and others continuing with that labeling.

And sorry but that sucks and is needless.

And im sure to you it was also racist and fear mongering early when he put in the china travel ban.

We are done here. I'm right here. You could, IDK, ask me instead of assigning me random views to play some partisan bickering game interests me not at all.

I told you what my issue was. There are consequences to his citizens for his choice in spamming that phrase(and that his PR firm Fox repeats on a loop). He doesn't know better imo and isn't motivated by racism but rather self-preservation, but he has people around him who know better who have a duty to tell him to be better as his wife would put it.

That's all. Nothing about the travel ban which was definitely one of the only things he got right initially.

[SOdisciple]

To the people blasting Trump for calling it the "Chinese Virus", I don't ever want to hear you say "Spanish Flu" ever again. Don't be a hypocrite.

[Bullflip]

not interested in getting into it on Trump other than to say as the leader of the country and one who was actively working against taking measures early, he absolutely deserves a ton of criticism.

That said, it's clear that someone was able to get through to him and the US Govt seems to be all-in on trying to deal with this now so I'm not going to waste time or energy playing the blame game. There will be time enough once we are through the crisis to identify some issues that contributed to making the issue worse.

And no it doesn't need to be said over and over. Everyone knows where the virus first started spreading. And yes Asians are getting harassed by ignorant people being led by Trump and others continuing with that labeling.

And sorry but that sucks and is needless.

And im sure to you it was also racist and fear mongering early when he put in the china travel ban.

That's a poor assumption because they are two different things.

No one is debating where it came from, the point is Trump has a lot of people who hang on his every word who might not be the most intelligent and get that he's referring to where it came from. They are going to treat Chinese people differently. S regardless of it being true that it came from China, he could reduce some of that hate by just calling it Covid-19. It's his arrogance that will stop him from doing it.

The Chinese would have no problem calling it the American flu if it originated from here. I don’t have a problem calling it a Chinese flu. This PC correctness is so stupid. It originated from China like almost all the modern previous pandemics. Maybe if the Chinese people would stop eating food they are not supposed to eat this wouldn’t happen.

[ItsDanger]

My point is, the way people are overreacting, is going to cause a massive shutdown for way too long. Realistically if you shutdown for 2 weeks, not long enough, got to be longer and some damage will be permanent. I still view H1N1 pandemic as more serious (given current conditions) and people were not behaving like this. AS far as shutting down economy, you got a major problem if mortality rate is 0.5% of confirmed cases (big chunk of cases will never be confirmed) 2-3 weeks from now. The closer you get to average flu rate will cause a lot of disagreement on the tactics employed.

[OkcSinceSGA]

US mortality rate is currently at 1.5% in total. Still heavily skewed towards old & underlying conditions, WA state care facility. If the top level rate drops to 0.5%, what is the plan then? Full panic still?

Yes, because if 75% of America gets infected (current curve if not stopped in a worst case), that's still a lot. Also you can't just look at deaths man. Look at people with permanently damaged lungs that live. Look at those that will get divorce papers, lose their homes, lose their jobs. I hate when people minimize this kind of stuff.

Some people will come out of this alive WISHING they died.

The big issue is that if 75% of the US population gets infected, the mortality rate will be FAR higher than 1.5% because so many will die because they're won't have access to ICU, ventilators, etc. Doctors will be forced to choose who to try to save, and who to just pray for. This is Italy right now.

Yes, it will be confined mostly to older and those with underlying conditions. But if 75% of our population gets infected, we will be close to a situation like Iran where they're digging mass burial sites.

I agree completely.

[OkcSinceSGA]

In my opinion Trump should be calling it Wuhan flu, if he is going to name it after a region like they did with Ebola, Zika, MERS, and the Spanish Flu. we all know that he is saying China specifically to hit them back for the recent conspiracy that the United States planted the virus.

I do think that at this point he needs to bring all Americans together and not alienate Chinese Americans. you can still hold China accountable by calling it Wuhan flu and stressing that it came from China.

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM mobile app

I like WuFlu. Simple and has a ring to it.

Not Kung Flu like the journalist supposed overheard ?

[OkcSinceSGA]

My point is, the way people are overreacting, is going to cause a massive shutdown for way too long. Realistically if you shutdown for 2 weeks, not long enough, got to be longer and some damage will be permanent. I still view H1N1 pandemic as more serious (given current conditions) and people were not behaving like this. AS far as shutting down economy, you got a major problem if mortality rate is 0.5% of confirmed cases (big chunk of cases will never be confirmed) 2-3 weeks from now. The closer you get to average flu rate will cause a lot of disagreement on the tactics employed.

Believe me, countries wouldn't be jeopardizing all business and economy if they didn't KNOW more than you or I did about the severity of this dude.

[MotownMadness]

My point is, the way people are overreacting, is going to cause a massive shutdown for way too long. Realistically if you shutdown for 2 weeks, not long enough, got to be longer and some damage will be permanent. I still view H1N1 pandemic as more serious (given current conditions) and people were not behaving like this. AS far as shutting down economy, you got a major problem if mortality rate is 0.5% of confirmed cases (big chunk of cases will never be confirmed) 2-3 weeks from now. The closer you get to average flu rate will cause a lot of disagreement on the tactics employed.

Eventually were gonna have to just move forward. Try the couple week quarantine (if idiots listen) to kill off as much of it as possible but we cant just let our country rot over it.

[JHTruth]

My point is, the way people are overreacting, is going to cause a massive shutdown for way too long. Realistically if you shutdown for 2 weeks, not long enough, got to be longer and some damage will be permanent. I still view H1N1 pandemic as more serious (given current conditions) and people were not behaving like this. AS far as shutting down economy, you got a major problem if mortality rate is 0.5% of confirmed cases (big chunk of cases will never be confirmed) 2-3 weeks from now. The closer you get to average flu rate will cause a lot of disagreement on the tactics employed.

All these businesses that were forced to shut down are going to be hella PO'd when this scam ends. Look for local and state governments to get their pants sued off..

[madmaxmedia]

Yes, because if 75% of America gets infected (current curve if not stopped in a worst case), that's still a lot. Also you can't just look at deaths man. Look at people with permanently damaged lungs that live. Look at those that will get divorce papers, lose their homes, lose their jobs. I hate when people minimize this kind of stuff.

Some people will come out of this alive WISHING they died.

Death rate is just one factor, which is higher than the flu. The main issue with this virus is that it is much more contagious than a flu, and also people can spread the disease without even showing any kind of symptoms.

Hospitalization rate is high, which leads to overwhelmed healthcare systems. This is causing deaths and issues for people of other ailments who may otherwise need the care of doctors and nurses who are stretched very thin. With such a high hospitalization rate, if concerts, events, schools, etc were still allowed to happen (people will still go, many need to be protected from themselves) the economy would eventually collapse completely. Hell, even with lockdown, we are basically in a recession.

This is something to take seriously.

There is no "high hospitalization rate". That is abject nonsense. Most carriers either show no or only very mild symptoms.

You realize that those 2 statements are not mutually exclusive?

COVID-19 is more severe than flu, and the hospitalization rate is certainly higher than flu (I understand 'high' is a very relative term though which can make for misunderstandings.) It is certainly high enough to cause a devastating emergency situation in Italy, where hospitals are overloaded with very sick patients and many are dying because there's not enough medical care to go around.

At the same time, most carriers show no or mild symptoms.

[SF_Warriors]

Yes, because if 75% of America gets infected (current curve if not stopped in a worst case), that's still a lot. Also you can't just look at deaths man. Look at people with permanently damaged lungs that live. Look at those that will get divorce papers, lose their homes, lose their jobs. I hate when people minimize this kind of stuff.

Some people will come out of this alive WISHING they died.

Death rate is just one factor, which is higher than the flu. The main issue with this virus is that it is much more contagious than a flu, and also people can spread the disease without even showing any kind of symptoms.

Hospitalization rate is high, which leads to overwhelmed healthcare systems. This is causing deaths and issues for people of other ailments who may otherwise need the care of doctors and nurses who are stretched very thin. With such a high hospitalization rate, if concerts, events, schools, etc were still allowed to happen (people will still go, many need to be protected from themselves) the economy would eventually collapse completely. Hell, even with lockdown, we are basically in a recession.

This is something to take seriously.

There is no "high hospitalization rate". That is abject nonsense. Most carriers either show no or only very mild symptoms.

Every hospital in the bay area most likely has a dozen inpatients at a minimum with or suspected of covid19. Hospitalization rate in Italy is 15-20% (19 last I checked). Look at how badly healthcare systems in multiple countries are being overwhelmed and you are telling me it is not a high hospitalization rate? Wake up.

[Catchall]

I agree with Bill Ackman or whatever his name is. Trump needs to come out ASAP and put this country under quarantine for a month. Have food & supplies delivered to everyone's houses

I disagree. States have already taken measures to create social distancing (closing schools and businesses and telling people to stay home). Now we need to keep ramping up testing and look at some data. The only areas that should consider hard quarantines are hot spots with community spread.

New York has a real problem, imo, because there's really no such thing as social distancing there. If this virus is airborne, then all of these apartment complexes with hundreds of units and central air could become like the Princess cruise ships. If it were up to me, I would have all buildings--apartments and offices--turn off their central air circulation, even if it means reducing work hours or telling people to open windows.

[azcatz11]

I agree with Bill Ackman or whatever his name is. Trump needs to come out ASAP and put this country under quarantine for a month. Have food & supplies delivered to everyone's houses

I disagree. States have already taken measures to create social distancing (closing schools and businesses and telling people to stay home). Now we need to keep ramping up testing and look at some data. The only areas that should consider hard quarantines are hot spots with community spread.

New York has a real problem, imo, because there's really no such thing as social distancing there. If this virus is airborne, then all of these apartment complexes with hundreds of units and central air could become like the Princess cruise ships. If it were up to me, I would have all buildings--apartments and offices--turn off their central air circulation, even if it means reducing work hours or telling people to open windows.

I sure hope you're right...

[OkcSinceSGA]

Death rate is just one factor, which is higher than the flu. The main issue with this virus is that it is much more contagious than a flu, and also people can spread the disease without even showing any kind of symptoms.

Hospitalization rate is high, which leads to overwhelmed healthcare systems. This is causing deaths and issues for people of other ailments who may otherwise need the care of doctors and nurses who are stretched very thin. With such a high hospitalization rate, if concerts, events, schools, etc were still allowed to happen (people will still go, many need to be protected from themselves) the economy would eventually collapse completely. Hell, even with lockdown, we are basically in a recession.

This is something to take seriously.

There is no "high hospitalization rate". That is abject nonsense. Most carriers either show no or only very mild symptoms.

Every hospital in the bay area most likely has a dozen patients at a minimum with covid19. Hospitalization rate in Italy is 15-20% (19 last I checked). Look at how badly healthcare systems in multiple countries are being overwhelmed and you are telling me it is not a high hospitalization rate? Wake up.

You guys are in full blown stay in the house lockdown right? From the order I read, it seems the SF order was to stay home period.