DaeDae wrote:MarcusBrody wrote:Antinomy wrote:
This conversation is silly because you guys don’t know the difference between a rate & a percentage.
Kinda sad actually.
I have a PhD in quantitative sociology and am currently a data science professor. I understand the difference between a rate and a percentage.
My link didn't work before, but here's one from the Census that might help you understand: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/12/united-states-marriage-and-divorce-rates-declined-last-10-years.html
Now, comparing marriage and divorce rates straight up doesn't fully make sense as they are calculated per 1000 women, so divorce rates will look lower if you have fewer married people (as only married people are eligible for divorce). But we can look at the change in percentages. Marriage rates drop slightly, but divorce rates drop even more. That provides no evidence that divorce is becoming more common (to the contrary, the number of married people is going to be: Number married at T1 + number married - number divorced - number dead - number widowed. Now, things do change a little bit with cohort size, as it's calculated for people over 15, and young people aren't a super large cohort compared to historical numbers (due to the low birth rate) and the group that is now moving into their major mortality risk era is very large, so we're seeing lower proportion of married people in the population as a large, more often married generation is dying/being widowed.
So to make the best comparison, you have to take all that into account, but it's really hard to be in a situation where divorce is increasing while the divorce rate is dropping faster than the marriage rate. You need some very specific demographic shifts, which we're not seeing at the moment.
Now, I'm open to a counterargument, but you're going to need to show me some math to show that it's happening.
You have much more resilience than I do. Respect. When i suggested he Google the data 3 times and he still opted out, I knew there was nothing left to discuss.
But I salute you.
Worry about your marriage dude, not me




















