DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 (FINAL poll reset)

[Klomp]

Anyone see who's been guarding Kevin Durant in the first half?

[floppymoose]

I'm curious who you'd knock off in favor of Draymond.

Sorry for taking so long to respond. I havent fully investigated the entire list, but for starters definitely Jarrett Allen.

GSW opponents offensive rating drops -7.4 when Dray steps on the court. Allen's on/off there is much more neutral.

[Klomp]

Anyone see who's been guarding Kevin Durant in the first half?

I mean, come on...

Read on Twitter

[cupcakesnake]

[


I don't understand what happened ...



O.G. wins your first two polls, maintains his lead in steals per game

... and somehow drops completely out of your top ten ... and then doesn't even get an honourable mention.



By the sudden soaring of the "other" option ... looks like O.G. could be even third or fourth in this latest poll



A-N-U-N-O-B-Y

this is a joke right? who made this poll, scott foster? for crissakes how do you leave Anunoby out? dude has not only continued to play monster D but has also averaged 20 ppg in the last third of the season and the raps are finally actually winning games too. garbage poll.

So anyone who has been participating in this thread all year knows how much of an Anunoby stan this year. He's one of my 5 favorite players in the NBA so I'm not going to entertain "anti-OG bias" accusations with much seriousness. I explained him getting dropped from the poll a while back but I'll re-explain it.

Basically, if I put OG in the poll... he'll win. Because there's a disproportionate amount of Raps fans on the GB.

OG started the season as a favorite or co-favorite for this award. I waxed poetic about OG's upgraded help defense keeping Nurse's ambitious scheme afloat without a backline defender. But as you well know the Raps defense fell apart and OG stopped getting DPOY mentions. But OG kept winning the polls in here. So while I definitely think OG never stopped being a top 9 defender in the NBA, I do think his presence kind of de-legitimized the entire poll. No one would have taken it seriously with OG winning again and again, even when the Raps had dropped to a #18 defensive ranking and OG was going through an injury stretch.

So does OG deserve to be listed on this poll? Yes. He's no longer a serious DPOY candidate but I think he could see him getting 3rd place votes. I'm higher on OG than I am on McDaniels or Caruso (and I'm really high on both of them).

I don't see any need for Raps fans to feel inscure about OG's defensive rep. Everyone knows he's one of the best non-big defenders in the NBA. If the Raps had been a top 10 defense for more of the year, OG would be a serious contender for this award. But there's just too many Raps fans so it feels dumb to have him win the poll every time when it doesn't represent the broader NBA fan thinking.

There are only 9 spots on the poll. OG is in good company with Draymond and AD (other anchors of non-top 10 defenses that got left off the poll), and Embiid (anchoring a top 10 defense but more inconsistent than the other guys). Nic Claxton is the only guy on here who doesn't have a top 10 defense. I'd easily swap him out for any of the other guys I've mentioned.

Yeah, I thought about my post afterwards in the car and realized that it was probably excessively harsh. I know you have done a good job managing this thread this year and also recall that you are like me an OG OG stan, yet while I get that the number of Raps fans on this board is disproportionate and that you don't want a skewed poll that favors Raps fans, it seems that your solution skews it excessively the other way, since it is by no means only raps fans that have voted for OG this year as their DPOY choice. He leads the leagues in steals, leads the league in defensive versatility and is the only player in the league who guards the best player on the other team every single night, whether its a big C, a powerful wing or a crafty guard. And his record against them is ridiculously good. I don't see why he isn't a legit candidate. He doesn't offer rim protection but I would argue what he offers is at least as valuable because he consistently (not always of course, but consistently) prevents the #1 superstar option on the other team from leading his team to a win, be it Luka or Jokic or Butler or Harden or Trae or Mitchell or whoever. In a league so dominated by those #1 options the ability to significantly reduce their impact night after night makes a huge impact. Of course our team has sucked offensively so we have't taken advantage of it, but that's not OGs fault.

Yeah I don't disagree with any of this. It just skews negatively either way. If OG kept winning the poll all year, it would have devolved the quality of this thread into the typical GB Raps fan hate. I sacrificed OG for the quality of the thread even though it hurt me to do so. I thought listed the previous poll results (which show OG won) was the best compromise I could think of. If OG was still getting any DPOY hype in the media, I wouldn't hold him out of the poll. The Raps are slowly crawling back into the top 10 defense picture since they acquired an actual center, so it wouldn't be silly to put OG in the 3rd spot on a DPOY ballot.

As much as OG's on-ball defense is undeniable, I think his help at the nail really leveled up this year and that's where a big portion of those steals come from (though he gets on ball steals as well). Whenever he's weakside and the Raps are doing their usual overload strong thing that Nurse loves so much, OG was making it impossible to skip pass. Early in the year I thought this was going to work but I felt like the Raps players kind of stopped believing in it after a couple bad games of breakdowns and after that the defense didn't have the same bite. I talk about OG's help defense because I think people put him in a box as an on-ball stopper and ignore some of the extra value he's bringing that I don't see from other ball hawks like Mikal Bridges or even my new boyfriend Jalen McDaniels. I'm hopeful the Raps improve on this year's roster next year and build a more consistent defense so OG can get the DPOY love he deserves. This year just ain't it for him.

[Hoop Heavy]

Yeah I don't disagree with any of this. It just skews negatively either way. If OG kept winning the poll all year, it would have devolved the quality of this thread into the typical GB Raps fan hate. I sacrificed OG for the quality of the thread even though it hurt me to do so. I thought listed the previous poll results (which show OG won) was the best compromise I could think of. If OG was still getting any DPOY hype in the media, I wouldn't hold him out of the poll. The Raps are slowly crawling back into the top 10 defense picture since they acquired an actual center, so it wouldn't be silly to put OG in the 3rd spot on a DPOY ballot.

As much as OG's on-ball defense is undeniable, I think his help at the nail really leveled up this year and that's where a big portion of those steals come from (though he gets on ball steals as well). Whenever he's weakside and the Raps are doing their usual overload strong thing that Nurse loves so much, OG was making it impossible to skip pass. Early in the year I thought this was going to work but I felt like the Raps players kind of stopped believing in it after a couple bad games of breakdowns and after that the defense didn't have the same bite. I talk about OG's help defense because I think people put him in a box as an on-ball stopper and ignore some of the extra value he's bringing that I don't see from other ball hawks like Mikal Bridges or even my new boyfriend Jalen McDaniels. I'm hopeful the Raps improve on this year's roster next year and build a more consistent defense so OG can get the DPOY love he deserves. This year just ain't it for him.

Actually, just a little sentence or two at the start would have clarified what was going on for me. I agree - whether O.G. is DPOY this year out there ... in here O.G. is going to win. If I was writing a formula for the situation, I would apply a factor of the increase in "team identified fan support" as a multiplier that would adjust the score of a player like that down somewhat - like *0.66. Still, it would require a program tracking voters etc - I understand your low tech solution. Indeed, it is an honouring.



I only have so much opinion about where Anunoby stands among the very best defenders. I don't find I watch nearly enough games of all the players involved. Moreover, I don't find that basketball currently has in place a reasonable way to measure how an exceptional individual effects team defense.

O.G. was a precise of this example - I think it was the Minnesota game recently - it was the Raptors first defensive play of the game. Maybe it was Kyle Anderson who had blown by an initial defender on the perimeter, but O.G. rotated quickly ... and then left his feet with a vertical challenge about 12 feet out ... the shot went from open to completely unavailable immediately ... and the shooter altered midair and passed out to the three point line ... the shot clock went off before they got the shot off.

Still, what stat measures O.G.'s individual rotation that saves a layup - none. I doubt it even counts as a shot challenge because the ball was passed ... but that obviously wasn't the initial thought with 2 seconds left on the clock - so O.G. blows the play up so completely he doesn't even get credit for anything.



Sure there is plus/minus and on/off - still team based stats don't show the point I'm making. It reminds me of a thread six months ago ... where people were talking about was Danny Ainge one of the top 100 players ever. I said he might not be in the top 2000. They pointed out he was an all-star once and all the team awards he was involved in. I pointed out he found a niche where he was surrounded by some of the world's greatest teammates ever ... Bird, McHale, Parish, D.J. .... come on I could look good playing with those guys. The team based stats don't have a factor that can be applied to compensate for having Bird, McHale and Parish on your side.

Maybe, I'm going to crack this sort of offense/defense mathematical relationship at some point. I did it with baseball 30 years ago. I created a way to show the comparative value of each action (regardless of which statistic was assigned to it) in relation to winning. So it worked for both offense and defense simultaneously. Baseball is easy though - it's all stop time ... and you have to be in only one of four places (the bases) ... so it is easy to determine if an action has made a difference and even how much of one.



Anyway, Jalen McDaniels looked really good tonight.

[toooskies]

I wonder if the new CBA's 65 game awards rule moving forward will alter voters' consideration of JJJ for DPOY given that he can only play in 64 games this year.

[INKtastic]

Cavs have the #1 defense. How are Lopez AND Giannis both way ahead of Mobley in the voting here?

There's not another defender in the league like Mobley.

[binjumper]

Cavs have the #1 defense. How are Lopez AND Giannis both way ahead of Mobley in the voting here?

There's not another defender in the league like Mobley.

Because Allen

[INKtastic]

Cavs have the #1 defense. How are Lopez AND Giannis both way ahead of Mobley in the voting here?

There's not another defender in the league like Mobley.

Because Allen

Still doesn't make any sense to have both of them ahead of Mobley because of Allen, when Allen isn't ahead of anyone.

Again, the Cavs, not the bucks, have the number 1 defense. Mobley is absolutely insane on defense. He can guard anyone on the court.

[VanWest82]

Cavs have the #1 defense. How are Lopez AND Giannis both way ahead of Mobley in the voting here?

There's not another defender in the league like Mobley.

Because Allen

Still doesn't make any sense to have both of them ahead of Mobley because of Allen, when Allen isn't ahead of anyone.

Again, the Cavs, not the bucks, have the number 1 defense. Mobley is absolutely insane on defense. He can guard anyone on the court.

Cavs are a tricky one as they have lots of good defenders. Did you know that the player with the lowest OFF court DRTG is Mobley? In other words, Cavs play their best defense when he isn't in the game.

[INKtastic]

Because Allen

Still doesn't make any sense to have both of them ahead of Mobley because of Allen, when Allen isn't ahead of anyone.

Again, the Cavs, not the bucks, have the number 1 defense. Mobley is absolutely insane on defense. He can guard anyone on the court.

Cavs are a tricky one as they have lots of good defenders. Did you know that the player with the lowest OFF court DRTG is Mobley? In other words, Cavs play their best defense when he isn't in the game.

Simply not true. Mobly is 5th in the league in DRTG and leads the league in defensive win share, 10% ahead of #2.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_leaders.html

[VanWest82]

Still doesn't make any sense to have both of them ahead of Mobley because of Allen, when Allen isn't ahead of anyone.

Again, the Cavs, not the bucks, have the number 1 defense. Mobley is absolutely insane on defense. He can guard anyone on the court.

Cavs are a tricky one as they have lots of good defenders. Did you know that the player with the lowest OFF court DRTG is Mobley? In other words, Cavs play their best defense when he isn't in the game.

Simply not true. Mobly is 5th in the league in DRTG and leads the league in defensive win share, 10% ahead of #2.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_leaders.html

But it is true.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612739/onoffcourt-advanced?dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING

Also, iDRTG is a terrible stat. So is DWS. Try DEPM if you're looking for a good all-in-one defensive measure. And to clarify, I'm not referencing some bogus defensive advanced stat, just what the team's DRTG per 100 is when Mobley is on the bench.

[yoyoboy]

Mobley has been just incredible on defense man. It’s so clear that people are not watching games or dissecting the advanced metrics they’re blindly regurgitating. To lead a Cavs team with such lacking perimeter defense and a general lack of size outside of him and Allen to the #1 defense is so impressive. Watch a game and pay attention to the sheer amount of space he covers and threatens each possession.

[JimmyFromNz]

This may have been addressed through much of this thread, its pretty long thread so forgive me if its repetition.

Brook Lopez - the best defensive player in the league this year, are we sure we want to do this? Are we completely certain he's not the 3rd best overall defender on his team? I'll certainly acknowledge many of the podcast favourites are singing praises...I listen to Nate and Ben Taylor as much as the next person.

Firstly, full credit to Brook, he's had a great year his defense has improved as his mobility following surgery has allowed, he contests incredibly well and is disciplined in doing so. Bud also deserves credit in putting Brook in places hes comfortable via the drop defense. However, I simply can't escape the fact he's surrounded by a former DPOY and perhaps the best/2nd best guard/wing defender in the league.

Advanced analytics also give us a little direction as to how important Brook is, his size, his length and the ability to anchor the paint. That shows in on/off figures I'm sure many have crunched to support where they want to go with their argument. Which essentially boils down to 'well the bucks are slightly less worse with Brook on and the others off', therefore there's your evidence he should be the DPOY.

When we consider them in their context, that difference in a couple of numbers/decimals reflects that having a defensive big as your pivot is essential to your defensive effectiveness as a team. We know for a fact that defensive advanced analytics favour big men and are notorious for reliability in comparisons - we do this dance every year, so we need to look at what is happening in front of us.

Much has been made of Brook's ability to creep further out now, yes there's evidence of that. I've never however seen the real analysis of what effect that actually has. This is not a Bam situation, guards continues to attack him off the dribble. The difference here is that the recovery (or safety net) is the length of having Giannis weak side/roaming, Jrue or someone else hedging down after every pnr screen action - we saw that for example today with Jrue monstering the Harden/Embiid actions. In more simplistic terms, having elite long/physical defenders like Jrue or Giannis forcing the ball onto the floor, funelling attacking wings into the paint makes life just as easy on Brook as it does the other way round.

I get it, Brook is very important to this system, the Bucks deserve a lot of credit for how they've adjusted on that side of the ball in a way that complements all of their pieces maximally, but are we going to look back in 5 years and truly hand on heart say - Brook Lopez was the best defensive player in the league in 2023 knowing what we know?

I'm sure everyone here that has played competitive basketball to some basic level understands the defensive string you're all attached to is only as strong as the amount of slack each player allows. My overarching point here would be that Brook has some very strong, hands helping keep that slack tight and vice versa - unlike some of the other candidates in a relatively weak class.

[jasonxxx102]

Cavs have the #1 defense. How are Lopez AND Giannis both way ahead of Mobley in the voting here?

There's not another defender in the league like Mobley.

Because Allen

It’s weird people keep saying this because it’s easily disprovable.

Mobley on Allen off and the Cavs still have the best defense in the league.

You didn’t even have to watch the Cavs to see this you could have just taken 30 seconds and looked at the WOWY data

[jasonxxx102]

I think the lack of Mobley votes is simply because he’s in Cleveland. Nobody is watching the Cavs, even at a national level and it shows.

The comments in here are so bizarre and just regurgitated with no effort to individually verify.

Just watch Mobley for a single half of basketball and you’ll see. Not saying he’s DPOY but he’s an elite defensive talent

[BostonCouchGM]

Mobley has been just incredible on defense man. It’s so clear that people are not watching games or dissecting the advanced metrics they’re blindly regurgitating. To lead a Cavs team with such lacking perimeter defense and a general lack of size outside of him and Allen to the #1 defense is so impressive. Watch a game and pay attention to the sheer amount of space he covers and threatens each possession.

every game I watch guards and wings that initiate the offense and run PnR salivate at the prospect of Mobley (or Allen) getting switched on them. Mobley gets cooked on the perimeter. It's not to say that he isn't talented. He clearly is. He's long and athletic. But like most every 4/5 he's got slower feet in space and gets cooked. Where he excels seems to be his ability to sometimes make up for getting cooked by blocking a few shots from behind and when he's parked down low and gets blocks in help defense or while guarding other 4s (the shallowest position in the NBA btw).

[toooskies]

Mobley has been just incredible on defense man. It’s so clear that people are not watching games or dissecting the advanced metrics they’re blindly regurgitating. To lead a Cavs team with such lacking perimeter defense and a general lack of size outside of him and Allen to the #1 defense is so impressive. Watch a game and pay attention to the sheer amount of space he covers and threatens each possession.

every game I watch guards and wings that initiate the offense and run PnR salivate at the prospect of Mobley (or Allen) getting switched on them. Mobley gets cooked on the perimeter. It's not to say that he isn't talented. He clearly is. He's long and athletic. But like most every 4/5 he's got slower feet in space and gets cooked. Where he excels seems to be his ability to sometimes make up for getting cooked by blocking a few shots from behind and when he's parked down low and gets blocks in help defense or while guarding other 4s (the shallowest position in the NBA btw).

So when you say "cooked" you don't mean he's actually giving up a good shot. Got it. What I see is guys thinking they have a step, not actually having an advantage, putting up an altered shot or getting it blocked, or bailing out and looking for an open shooter that doesn't often exist.

I can't find the stats on this but I bet the Cavs lead the league in forced shot clock violations. Certainly isn't Milwaukee, who's 30th in the league in defensive turnovers.

[INKtastic]

Mobley has been just incredible on defense man. It’s so clear that people are not watching games or dissecting the advanced metrics they’re blindly regurgitating. To lead a Cavs team with such lacking perimeter defense and a general lack of size outside of him and Allen to the #1 defense is so impressive. Watch a game and pay attention to the sheer amount of space he covers and threatens each possession.

every game I watch guards and wings that initiate the offense and run PnR salivate at the prospect of Mobley (or Allen) getting switched on them. Mobley gets cooked on the perimeter. It's not to say that he isn't talented. He clearly is. He's long and athletic. But like most every 4/5 he's got slower feet in space and gets cooked. Where he excels seems to be his ability to sometimes make up for getting cooked by blocking a few shots from behind and when he's parked down low and gets blocks in help defense or while guarding other 4s (the shallowest position in the NBA btw).

I see the opposite, Mobley is absolutely elite on defense after the switch

[INKtastic]

Mobley has been just incredible on defense man. It’s so clear that people are not watching games or dissecting the advanced metrics they’re blindly regurgitating. To lead a Cavs team with such lacking perimeter defense and a general lack of size outside of him and Allen to the #1 defense is so impressive. Watch a game and pay attention to the sheer amount of space he covers and threatens each possession.

every game I watch guards and wings that initiate the offense and run PnR salivate at the prospect of Mobley (or Allen) getting switched on them. Mobley gets cooked on the perimeter. It's not to say that he isn't talented. He clearly is. He's long and athletic. But like most every 4/5 he's got slower feet in space and gets cooked. Where he excels seems to be his ability to sometimes make up for getting cooked by blocking a few shots from behind and when he's parked down low and gets blocks in help defense or while guarding other 4s (the shallowest position in the NBA btw).

From a few pages ago in this thread

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