eyeatoma wrote:SpreeS wrote:from Reddit developer of BPM
Resurrecting a dead thread... but as creator of BPM, I just wanted to say that I agree.
When a player posts box scores that have never been seen before, it really tests how the calculations handle outliers. Westbrook did it, and now Jokic is doing it. Westbrook exposed a significant flaw in the calculations, which was subsequently corrected (BTW--I'm a Thunder fan and Westbrook was one of my favorite players. So no bias). Jokic is now doing it on the calculation of defense for big men.
There are very few box score stats to work with measuring defense. Blocks, Steals, Defensive Rebounds, and overall team defense (and position that the player plays). Assists have shown to be a very strong indicator of a player's awareness on the court, and very significant for measuring big man defense.
However....When setting up the calculations, I did not adequately account for offensive role when incorporating the benefits of assists for big men. There are so few big man offensive passing hubs in the 20+ years of data I'm working with! So the effect of Jokic's passing on the defensive BPM numbers is incorrectly high.
I plan to correct that soon.
As other commenters have noted, there are better overall metrics for current NBA seasons; BPM is more useful for looking at very small sample sizes or at leagues or eras for which the more advanced statistics are not available.
This is great thanks for sharing. Around these parts those, people will choose to ignore what you just wrote though. I've mentioned similar things in the past.
B-ball reference in general talks about how we should take DBPM with a grain of salt. It's not really accurate to tell you what the defensive impact a player is. It isn't useless, but it's not the best for sure. Jokic is still not bad on defense. He isn't good with literal quickness and gets blown by with quickness with speed. And he isn't a rim protector, but he does make swipes at the ball and change some shots. He isn't bad. He isn't a negative. And his offense is so otherworldly.
