WOJ: Spurs draft Rob Dillingham 8th, then trade him to the TWolves for an unprotected 2031 first

[CBS7]

Points/Game

Luka 1st (33.9) on .617 TS% (38th)
SGA 3rd (30.1) on .636 TS% (15th)
Ant 11th (25.9) on .575 TS% (113th)

Assists/game

Luka 2nd (9.8) with 4.0 TO/game (2.45 ratio)
SGA 18th (6.2) with 2.2 TO/game (2.81 ratio)
Ant 35th (5.1) with 3.1 TO/game (1.64 ratio)

PER
SGA 3rd (29.3)
Luka 4th (28.1)
Ant 36th (19.7)

WS/48
SGA 2nd (.275)
Luka 5th (.220)
Ant 63rd (.130)

BPM
Luka 2nd (9.9)
SGA 4th (9.0)
Ant 32nd (3.3)

VORP
Luka 2nd (8.0)
SGA 4th (7.1)
Ant 18th (3.7)

"may already be better than shai"

[dhsilv2]

Stop spouting your opinion as if it's fact. It is far from it. Right now I would say Luka is better, but 3 years from now I'm confident Ant will be.

I'm not stating my opinion. All objective data we have puts Luka has better but better by more than can be reasonably pushed aside as error in the stats.

Meanwhile you're either misquoting people or flat out lying about all these analysts who expect ANT to be the best player.

I've seen and heard many with that opinion. Not lying or misquoting. From what I've seen he's the favorite to be the best player in the NBA in the not too distant future.

And yet you can't produce a single actual quote from someone who's got even a hint of respect? You cited SAS...which is great since nobody could ever fact check something on a guy who's spouting off jibberish and conflicting statements 12 hours a day (seriously with his radio show the man may actually never stop talking).

[Klomp]

Based on what?

You know what else matters? Efficiency, shot creation, and taking care of the ball. Ant trails SGA/Luka by a lot in those aspects, and isn't anywhere close to far enough ahead as a defender to even beginning filling in that gap.

You're caught up in the hype, my man. ESPN desperately wants another American superstar so they're pumping him up. I like ANT a lot, even collect some of his rookie cards, but assuming he'll reach MVP level is still a stretch.

You're a fan, you're rooting for your guy, you want him to become the best and think he has a chance, fine, go for it.
"its obviously the most likely outcome" "its the majority opinion", that's where the line is drawn lol

Exactly...

And my issue is OP claiming this is the worst trade he's ever seen (really?) and that our GM is a moron for making it, not taking into account how the 8th picks salary would have impacted our roster this upcoming season (wouldn't have been able to sign CP3, wouldn't have been able to absorb Barnes into space), and how stacking additional assets in the form of other teams' picks will eventually allow SA to package them together for a star player, as if the only option is waiting til 2031 to use the pick like Dillingham is some can't miss prospect with surefire All-Star written all over him

Wright traded THIS YEAR'S #8 OVERALL for assets that have virtually no value. If whoever replaces him as your GM holds those assets for 5 years yes they may have some value then, but nobody wants to delay gratification for 6 or 7 years. Nobody had a gun to his head forcing him to make that horrible deal so I stand by it being the worst trade I've ever seen other than a deal a team was forced into. I like Dilly, but who the player in the deal was has no bearing in my despising the trade. It was Pick 8 now for random swap and pick 6 and 7 years away.

If Wright is smart, he will use the pick and the swap as trade assets rather than waiting for them to convey. That waiting game and the perception of value is likely to outweigh what the actual value will turn out to be.

That perception is based on "Minnesota being Minnesota" rather than any on-court proof at the moment. The perception is based on the foundation that's built in Minnesota imploding, because it always has before. It's based on the belief that Minnesota does not have any way to improve, and so everyone is going to walk out the door in the next 5-7 years. That's what the Spurs are hoping for. That's where this trade could turn valuable for them.

However, Minnesota sees this as a chance to add another young building block to its core. Minnesota had two significant needs: "PG of the future" and "on-ball creation". Minnesota sees this as a chance to hopefully fill both of those needs with one pick. Even if he doesn't realize his full potential, I think they see Dillingham as a bench scoring option, which is also an immediate need for them and especially if Reid is no longer on the team in 2025-26. Even if that's the role Dillingham settles in for his career, I think the trade is a win for Minnesota.

[KGdaBom]

Here's Anthony Edwards on the Subject in an SI interview.

https://www.si.com/nba/2024/04/18/timberwolves-anthony-edwards-best-player-claim-two-three-years

[KGdaBom]

I'm not stating my opinion. All objective data we have puts Luka has better but better by more than can be reasonably pushed aside as error in the stats.

Meanwhile you're either misquoting people or flat out lying about all these analysts who expect ANT to be the best player.

I've seen and heard many with that opinion. Not lying or misquoting. From what I've seen he's the favorite to be the best player in the NBA in the not too distant future.

And yet you can't produce a single actual quote from someone who's got even a hint of respect? You cited SAS...which is great since nobody could ever fact check something on a guy who's spouting off jibberish and conflicting statements 12 hours a day (seriously with his radio show the man may actually never stop talking).

It's many. I didn't want to single anybody else out. Stephen A is probably the most famous so I just threw his name out there. Ant himself believes it also. I could Google it and find a bunch, but just because you are so snarky I'm not going to bother. Google it for yourself if you want to know who.

[Klomp]

In the end, I've never been a big fan of drafting any player in the top 10 by fit.

Absolutely.

And I don't even necessarily see it as Minnesota choosing fit over need. I think that they see him as a top talent who also can fill some of their biggest needs for the future.

But when you look at the Top 7.

1. Atlanta: Even if they had Dillingham rated highly, they weren't going to draft a small guard with Trae Young already locked in.
2. Washington: Hard to know what they want.
3. Houston: I think it's fair that they valued Shepherd over Dillingham. I think his higher floor was likely appealing to them.
4. San Antonio: Pop usually prefers bigger guards who can defend.
5. Detroit: I think Dillingham would have been an interesting fit with Cunningham, actually.
6. Charlotte: Doubt they considered Dillingham with Ball on the roster.
7. Portland: After drafting Scoot last year and having Simons too, Dillingham wouldn't make sense.

I do think Dillingham will be a Top 5 player in this draft class when all is said and done. Heck, since this draft class has been compared to 2000, look at the No. 8 pick that year.....if he has a Jamal Crawford career, that's a big win in my opinion.

[Quentin]

Points/Game

Luka 1st (33.9) on .617 TS% (38th)
SGA 3rd (30.1) on .636 TS% (15th)
Ant 11th (25.9) on .575 TS% (113th)

Assists/game

Luka 2nd (9.8) with 4.0 TO/game (2.45 ratio)
SGA 18th (6.2) with 2.2 TO/game (2.81 ratio)
Ant 35th (5.1) with 3.1 TO/game (1.64 ratio)

PER
SGA 3rd (29.3)
Luka 4th (28.1)
Ant 36th (19.7)

WS/48
SGA 2nd (.275)
Luka 5th (.220)
Ant 63rd (.130)

BPM
Luka 2nd (9.9)
SGA 4th (9.0)
Ant 32nd (3.3)

VORP
Luka 2nd (8.0)
SGA 4th (7.1)
Ant 18th (3.7)

"may already be better than shai"

Neat. Now compare their 4th years in the league.

[Bobbymcgee]

Why are there 27 pages of posts on this player?

[KGdaBom]

This is getting way, way, way too contentious regarding Ant becoming the best. He may and he may not. People won't agree anyway. To act like he doesn't have a shot pisses me off though. Here's a good YouTube with Michael Jordan lavishing praise on Ant and others like Charles Barkley who will be declared an idiot by the haters.

Watch on YouTube

[CBS7]

Points/Game

Luka 1st (33.9) on .617 TS% (38th)
SGA 3rd (30.1) on .636 TS% (15th)
Ant 11th (25.9) on .575 TS% (113th)

Assists/game

Luka 2nd (9.8) with 4.0 TO/game (2.45 ratio)
SGA 18th (6.2) with 2.2 TO/game (2.81 ratio)
Ant 35th (5.1) with 3.1 TO/game (1.64 ratio)

PER
SGA 3rd (29.3)
Luka 4th (28.1)
Ant 36th (19.7)

WS/48
SGA 2nd (.275)
Luka 5th (.220)
Ant 63rd (.130)

BPM
Luka 2nd (9.9)
SGA 4th (9.0)
Ant 32nd (3.3)

VORP
Luka 2nd (8.0)
SGA 4th (7.1)
Ant 18th (3.7)

"may already be better than shai"

Neat. Now compare their 4th years in the league.

No. Close to Luka and better than Shai right now was the statement.

Also without looking it up he won't be close to Luka but would be close to Shai.

[KGdaBom]

In the end, I've never been a big fan of drafting any player in the top 10 by fit.

Absolutely.

And I don't even necessarily see it as Minnesota choosing fit over need. I think that they see him as a top talent who also can fill some of their biggest needs for the future.

But when you look at the Top 7.

1. Atlanta: Even if they had Dillingham rated highly, they weren't going to draft a small guard with Trae Young already locked in.
2. Washington: Hard to know what they want.
3. Houston: I think it's fair that they valued Shepherd over Dillingham. I think his higher floor was likely appealing to them.
4. San Antonio: Pop usually prefers bigger guards who can defend.
5. Detroit: I think Dillingham would have been an interesting fit with Cunningham, actually.
6. Charlotte: Doubt they considered Dillingham with Ball on the roster.
7. Portland: After drafting Scoot last year and having Simons too, Dillingham wouldn't make sense.

I do think Dillingham will be a Top 5 player in this draft class when all is said and done. Heck, since this draft class has been compared to 2000, look at the No. 8 pick that year.....if he has a Jamal Crawford career, that's a big win in my opinion.

Jamaal with much better facilitating. I really like Lou Williams.

[KGdaBom]

Points/Game

Luka 1st (33.9) on .617 TS% (38th)
SGA 3rd (30.1) on .636 TS% (15th)
Ant 11th (25.9) on .575 TS% (113th)

Assists/game

Luka 2nd (9.8) with 4.0 TO/game (2.45 ratio)
SGA 18th (6.2) with 2.2 TO/game (2.81 ratio)
Ant 35th (5.1) with 3.1 TO/game (1.64 ratio)

PER
SGA 3rd (29.3)
Luka 4th (28.1)
Ant 36th (19.7)

WS/48
SGA 2nd (.275)
Luka 5th (.220)
Ant 63rd (.130)

BPM
Luka 2nd (9.9)
SGA 4th (9.0)
Ant 32nd (3.3)

VORP
Luka 2nd (8.0)
SGA 4th (7.1)
Ant 18th (3.7)

"may already be better than shai"

Neat. Now compare their 4th years in the league.

No. Close to Luka and better than Shai right now was the statement.

Also without looking it up he won't be close to Luka but would be close to Shai.

The statement was possibly better than Shai. Shai was without question better on the season as a whole, but Ant came on late. I predict Ant will be as good or better this coming season. Shai is amazing. If he's better than Ant this year I won't be disappointed, but Ant is younger and improving faster. He will catch and pass Shai. You're trying to compare Ant to older players. He has youth in his favor. Age 26-27 are usually when players are at their very best.

[shotsquatch]

In 2031 Wemby will be 27, theoretically entering his prime. The pick could end up being top 5 in a loaded draft class.

[KGdaBom]

In 2031 Wemby will be 27, theoretically entering his prime. The pick could end up being top 5 in a loaded draft class.

Yep Wemby could be the best player in the NBA. Wolves pick could be top 5. Most likely in the 20s. Are you going to wait 7 years to eat that Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream in your freezer?

[tmorgan]

In 2031 Wemby will be 27, theoretically entering his prime. The pick could end up being top 5 in a loaded draft class.

Yep Wemby could be the best player in the NBA. Wolves pick could be top 5. Most likely in the 20s. Are you going to wait 7 years to eat that Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream in your freezer?

San Antonio didn’t want to eat ice cream at all because there wasn’t any flavor available on the shelf at that time that they actually wanted. They were offered a free ice cream (and another swap of flavors) in the distant future instead and took it. Why is this so difficult for you to accept as rational?

Sure, what’s available via the pick and swap might be even less appealing than Dillingham (or guys that went later). There’s obviously risk involved. But they clearly didn’t think particularly highly of anyone on the board, even if Minnesota did.

You can bask in the glory of what you perceive as a steal of a trade, that’s cool. But you don’t know any more than anyone else how this is going to turn out. Summer League is and has always been a guard showcase, and it wouldn’t matter much to me how great or awful RD was in projecting his future. I see a skilled but undersized guard that’s a defensive sieve. His 95th percentile upside is Trae Young, who has trouble being a winning player. His floor is a turnover prone chucker that doesn’t get a second contract. In this draft, he was solid value for the 8th pick, but in many he wouldn’t be lottery at all.

[Klomp]

You can bask in the glory of what you perceive as a steal of a trade, that’s cool. But you don’t know any more than anyone else how this is going to turn out. Summer League is and has always been a guard showcase, and it wouldn’t matter much to me how great or awful RD was in projecting his future. I see a skilled but undersized guard that’s a defensive sieve. His 95th percentile upside is Trae Young, who has trouble being a winning player. His floor is a turnover prone chucker that doesn’t get a second contract. In this draft, he was solid value for the 8th pick, but in many he wouldn’t be lottery at all.

When has Trae Young been on a team with the reigning DPOY plus three additional all-defense caliber players, with one of those being a possible future face of the league? Context is everything.

[Klomp]

Why are there 27 pages of posts on this player?

Probably because the thread's back-and forth is more about the reasoning behind the trade from both sides as opposed to the player himself.

[Dan Z]

In the end, I've never been a big fan of drafting any player in the top 10 by fit.

Absolutely.

And I don't even necessarily see it as Minnesota choosing fit over need. I think that they see him as a top talent who also can fill some of their biggest needs for the future.

But when you look at the Top 7.

1. Atlanta: Even if they had Dillingham rated highly, they weren't going to draft a small guard with Trae Young already locked in.
2. Washington: Hard to know what they want.
3. Houston: I think it's fair that they valued Shepherd over Dillingham. I think his higher floor was likely appealing to them.
4. San Antonio: Pop usually prefers bigger guards who can defend.
5. Detroit: I think Dillingham would have been an interesting fit with Cunningham, actually.
6. Charlotte: Doubt they considered Dillingham with Ball on the roster.
7. Portland: After drafting Scoot last year and having Simons too, Dillingham wouldn't make sense.

I do think Dillingham will be a Top 5 player in this draft class when all is said and done. Heck, since this draft class has been compared to 2000, look at the No. 8 pick that year.....if he has a Jamal Crawford career, that's a big win in my opinion.

I think drafting BPA is generally a good idea, but it's overstated and should be done at a case-by-case basis.

Maybe Dillingham ends up having a career like you mention above (Jamal Crawford) and someone like Sarr ends up having a Wiseman type career...? It remains to be scene, but I don't think the top prospects in this draft really stood out in a way that you can definitely say one has a lot more potential than another.

My concern with Dillingham is his size, but in the right situation it can work.

[shotsquatch]

In 2031 Wemby will be 27, theoretically entering his prime. The pick could end up being top 5 in a loaded draft class.

Yep Wemby could be the best player in the NBA. Wolves pick could be top 5. Most likely in the 20s. Are you going to wait 7 years to eat that Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream in your freezer?

You would have eaten the marshmallow.

The Spurs had the 8th pick in a shallow draft with a dozen under-25 players on their roster already. They got who they wanted at number 4, then decided to roll the dice on an unprotected first down the road.

I'm sure San Antonio shopped their pick around before settling on the Wolves deal. Market probably wasn't great. The pick just wasn't worth a high caliber player.

The Spurs are betting that within the next 7 years Ant decides he's sick of the frozen north and the Wolves organization regresses to their norm (abject failure, laughingstock of the league). Nobody can predict the future, but frankly the Timberwolves sinking back to bottom-feeder status seems more likely than not. Suddenly an unprotected first from Minny starts looking a lot tastier.

Think of it this way: would you trade the 8th pick in a terrible draft for an unprotected pick from a random team in an average draft?

[Klomp]

In 2031 Wemby will be 27, theoretically entering his prime. The pick could end up being top 5 in a loaded draft class.

Yep Wemby could be the best player in the NBA. Wolves pick could be top 5. Most likely in the 20s. Are you going to wait 7 years to eat that Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream in your freezer?

You would have eaten the marshmallow.

The Spurs had the 8th pick in a shallow draft with a dozen under-25 players on their roster already. They got who they wanted at number 4, then decided to roll the dice on an unprotected first down the road.

I'm sure San Antonio shopped their pick around before settling on the Wolves deal. Market probably wasn't great. The pick just wasn't worth a high caliber player.

The Spurs are betting that within the next 7 years Ant decides he's sick of the frozen north and the Wolves organization regresses to their norm (abject failure, laughingstock of the league). Nobody can predict the future, but frankly the Timberwolves sinking back to bottom-feeder status seems more likely than not. Suddenly an unprotected first from Minny starts looking a lot tastier.

Think of it this way: would you trade the 8th pick in a terrible draft for an unprotected pick from a random team in an average draft?

I think this trade will be a very interesting case study.

What a lot of people nationally don't realize is that Minnesota actually has 8 players under 25, as well. Conley, Ingles and Gobert skew the team's average age, but overall it's a relatively young roster.

However, I think the key difference is the cap situations. While a lot of people focus on the fact Dillingham adds another $8 million over the second apron for Minnesota, I don't think people realized that Minnesota would have lost the ability to trade the 2031 pick once free agency began. So draft night was the last chance to use that asset, at least until they drop back below the second apron. I think that's another reason the trade was a sneaky brilliant idea for Minnesota. Right now, having cost-controlled assets is huge when you're above the second apron!