2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[Special_Puppy]

Thunder fans are gonna keep harping on bad games for Jokic if people keep insisting Jokic has been "much better" than SGA this year when nothing supports that. IDK why SGA is so underrated, we're witnessing one of the best guard seasons ever.

Can you be underrated when you are the favorite to win MVP? I do why the Jokic glazing can be grating for fans of other top players though

[Special_Puppy]

Updated MVP odds
SGA -325
Jokic +220
Giannis +10000
Tatum +15000
Wemby +25000

[sikma42]

Thunder fans are gonna keep harping on bad games for Jokic if people keep insisting Jokic has been "much better" than SGA this year when nothing supports that. IDK why SGA is so underrated, we're witnessing one of the best guard seasons ever.

Hold up..doesn’t almost everything point to Jokic having a much better season?


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[Special_Puppy]

Thunder fans are gonna keep harping on bad games for Jokic if people keep insisting Jokic has been "much better" than SGA this year when nothing supports that. IDK why SGA is so underrated, we're witnessing one of the best guard seasons ever.

Hold up..doesn’t almost everything point to Jokic having a much better season?


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DPM: Jokic but its close
Expected EPM: Jokic but its close
Actual EPM: SGA but its close
LEBRON: Jokic but its very close
BPM: Jokic but its close
XRAPM: Jokic but its close
3-Year RAPM: Jokic but its very close

[RRR3]

Thunder fans are gonna keep harping on bad games for Jokic if people keep insisting Jokic has been "much better" than SGA this year when nothing supports that. IDK why SGA is so underrated, we're witnessing one of the best guard seasons ever.

Hold up..doesn’t almost everything point to Jokic having a much better season?


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No they're pretty close in impact data and have been all year.

[brackdan70]

Thunder fans are gonna keep harping on bad games for Jokic if people keep insisting Jokic has been "much better" than SGA this year when nothing supports that. IDK why SGA is so underrated, we're witnessing one of the best guard seasons ever.

Hold up..doesn’t almost everything point to Jokic having a much better season?


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DPM: Jokic but its close
Expected EPM: Jokic but its close
Actual EPM: SGA but its close
LEBRON: Jokic but its very close
BPM: Jokic but its close
XRAPM: Jokic but its close
3-Year RAPM: Jokic but its very close

DPM and Projected EPM are both predictive and really have no relevance for an MVP discussion. Same as 3 year RPM.
They may be relevant to a who is the better player discussion, but MVP is about who has the best season.
For Actual EPM and LEBRON it makes more sense to look at the wins added column for MVP…EW for EPM and WAR for LEBRON.

SGA is comfortably ahead in both.
Edit: actually they are tied in LEBRON WAR. Jokic has closed the gap.

[Special_Puppy]

Hold up..doesn’t almost everything point to Jokic having a much better season?


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DPM: Jokic but its close
Expected EPM: Jokic but its close
Actual EPM: SGA but its close
LEBRON: Jokic but its very close
BPM: Jokic but its close
XRAPM: Jokic but its close
3-Year RAPM: Jokic but its very close

DPM and Projected EPM are both predictive and really have no relevance for an MVP discussion. Same as 3 year RPM.
They may be relevant to a who is the better player discussion, but MVP is about who has the best season.
For Actual EPM and LEBRON it makes more sense to look at the wins added column for MVP…EW for EPM and WAR for LEBRON.

SGA is comfortably ahead in both.
Edit: actually they are tied in LEBRON WAR. Jokic has closed the gap.

Is 0.9 EW in Actual EPM “comfortably ahead”

[RRR3]

Neither of them are really ahead of the other, they're as close to even as you can get, but personally I'd prefer SGA's archetype (6'6 do-it-all two-way guy) IF he can continue this level of play the rest of the season+the playoffs. I do not like centers who aren't rim protectors or switchable. I know Jokic is 10/10 on offense but it's just not an archetype I like.

[Special_Puppy]

Neither of them are really ahead of the other, they're as close to even as you can get, but personally I'd prefer SGA's archetype (6'6 do-it-all two-way guy) IF he can continue this level of play the rest of the season+the playoffs. I do not like centers who aren't rim protectors or switchable. I know Jokic is 10/10 on offense but it's just not an archetype I like.

What other players in NBA history are even in Jokic's archetype?

[RRR3]

Neither of them are really ahead of the other, they're as close to even as you can get, but personally I'd prefer SGA's archetype (6'6 do-it-all two-way guy) IF he can continue this level of play the rest of the season+the playoffs. I do not like centers who aren't rim protectors or switchable. I know Jokic is 10/10 on offense but it's just not an archetype I like.

What other players in NBA history are even in Jokic's archetype?

Domantas Sabonis right now, some have said Sengun in prior seasons but this year he's more weighted towards defense and less towards offense than the other two. If you go back further it's harder to find because they wouldn't let centers have that much ballhandling duty. I mostly meant centers who can't switch or protect the rim though, not centers who can be a primary playmaking option and have great low post skills.


Obviously Jokic **** on Sabonis and Sengun before anyone claims I'm saying they're comparable in anything other than aesthetic playstyle

[zike_42]

It's insane how good Jokic/SGA are playing when someone averaging 31/12/6 on 60% shooting isn't even on the same planet (Giannis).

[Packbuckman]

It's insane how good Jokic/SGA are playing when someone averaging 31/12/6 on 60% shooting isn't even on the same planet (Giannis).

He is except his struggles from the ft line which drops his TS% and the bucks 2-8 start even if they have had the 3rd best record since. He had to fight his way to being 3rd right now from blowing it up lol
Right now it’s a two man race with SGA in lead Giannis and bucks would need to go on a tear and finish top 2 in east for him to have any chance that and both SGA/Jokic and their teams to fall off a bit.

[Doctor MJ]

What other players in NBA history are even in Jokic's archetype?

I would always point to Bill Walton there as the prior NBA standard, and I'd point to Dutch Dehnert or the Original Celtics in the 1920s as the original pivot. The term "pivot" became synonymous with "center" relatively quickly because height was advantageous for the passing, but Dehnert wasn't a center, and Mikan wasn't a pivot in the original sense.

Jokic's an absolute outlier in so many ways, but I've been hoping - and I'd say we're starting to see - a re-birth of more traditional pivot play in the wake of Jokic.

[Doctor MJ]

SGA is comfortably ahead in both.
Edit: actually they are tied in LEBRON WAR. Jokic has closed the gap.

Is 0.9 EW in Actual EPM “comfortably ahead”

So just for reference here, here's the current Estimated Wins (EW) leaderboard:

1. SGA 12.2
2. Jokic 10.9
3. Tatum 8.3
4. Sabonis 7.9
5. JJJ 7.1
6. Wemby 7.0
7. Garland 6.8
8. KAT 6.7
9. Giannis 6.7
10. Mitchell 6.6

So I'd say SGA is pretty clearly ahead of Jokic by the metric, though I don't have a good, objective definition for what "comfortably" means here. It's certainly not an insurmountable lead, but it's definitely a lead.

The gap though between the top 2 and everyone else is the freaking huge one though. The way these two guys have separated themselves from the field is pretty jaw-dropping and it's why I just don't want to really argue against either one.

Jokic is my favorite player and almost certainly the most influential player we've seen for the long-term of basketball since Steph...but what Shai's doing from a pure competitive impact perspective really does harken back to the best guards in history - with the ever-present caveat that he's got to keep it up through June to really gain entry into that club.

[Ssj16]

It's insane how good Jokic/SGA are playing when someone averaging 31/12/6 on 60% shooting isn't even on the same planet (Giannis).

I personally think Giannis is on the same planet and I'd probably rank him ahead of SGA in a player ranking just because Giannis is a proven winner and balls out in the playoffs as well.

That being said, SGA and Jokic are having incredible seasons in their own respective way that's slightly more impressive than Giannis but I think the Greek Freak is still looming.

[Special_Puppy]

SGA is comfortably ahead in both.
Edit: actually they are tied in LEBRON WAR. Jokic has closed the gap.

Is 0.9 EW in Actual EPM “comfortably ahead”

So just for reference here, here's the current Estimated Wins (EW) leaderboard:

1. SGA 12.2
2. Jokic 10.9
3. Tatum 8.3
4. Sabonis 7.9
5. JJJ 7.1
6. Wemby 7.0
7. Garland 6.8
8. KAT 6.7
9. Giannis 6.7
10. Mitchell 6.6

So I'd say SGA is pretty clearly ahead of Jokic by the metric, though I don't have a good, objective definition for what "comfortably" means here. It's certainly not an insurmountable lead, but it's definitely a lead.

The gap though between the top 2 and everyone else is the freaking huge one though. The way these two guys have separated themselves from the field is pretty jaw-dropping and it's why I just don't want to really argue against either one.

Jokic is my favorite player and almost certainly the most influential player we've seen for the long-term of basketball since Steph...but what Shai's doing from a pure competitive impact perspective really does harken back to the best guards in history - with the ever-present caveat that he's got to keep it up through June to really gain entry into that club.

It got bigger after the Trailblazers tbf

[Special_Puppy]

It's insane how good Jokic/SGA are playing when someone averaging 31/12/6 on 60% shooting isn't even on the same planet (Giannis).

I personally think Giannis is on the same planet and I'd probably rank him ahead of SGA in a player ranking just because Giannis is a proven winner and balls out in the playoffs as well.

That being said, SGA and Jokic are having incredible seasons in their own respective way that's slightly more impressive than Giannis but I think the Greek Freak is still looming.

Want to see if SGA can keep playing like this before I put him definitely over Giannis. He's only really been playing better than Giannis for like half a season (although you could arguably put him over Giannis last season too but it was close)

[sikma42]

Can someone explain to me offensively what SGA does better than Jokic? I really don’t see it.


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[Special_Puppy]

Can someone explain to me offensively what SGA does better than Jokic? I really don’t see it.


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Minimizing turnovers

[bstein14]

Jokic is having his best statistical season, and is at the end of a GOAT 5 year stretch. He's got the best peak/prime of anyone since at least 88-93 Jordan. He amazingly has had a massive increase in his three point shooting this year. SGA's numbers actually look worse this season than last year he's doing less RPG, less APG, and shooting worse from 3 point land and turning it over more.

Yes, his team is stacked and elite defensively but its hard to look at a scenario where this year isn't quite as good for SGA and its the best ever statistical year for Jokic and SGA is the clear favorite. Voter fatigue for sure.