bb22 wrote:Serbia won’t get away with playing their bench heavy minutes against the states. They will be particularly vulnerable on the defensive end, and will have to be extremely efficient offensively. Just like every year, I assume the US will look much better by the knock out stage. If they do meet, I think it will be a closer game than in the past. IMO Serbia has a chance to win if they play their game perfectly. This is different from the past, when even a perfect game wouldn’t be enough (group stage rio olympics).
Away with? The only reason Serbia is playing twelve deep right now is because they're blowing severely under-matched teams out in the 1st quarter. Going deep is not their calling card, they just have a solid bench where players know how to play within the system they got. Once the elimination rounds start, the coach will shore up the rotations and their best players will get to play most of the matches. And this means Jokic, Bogdanovic, Bjelica, Jovic will be playing over 30 minutes, which is not good news at all if you're the opposition.
I don't think this US team has the proverbial 'switch' they could turn to take their game up a couple of gears when needed. What you saw in the opening game and pre-tournament exhibition games is what you get. This isn't LeBron, CP3, Wade, Kobe surrounded by all-stars... not even the likes of Curry, KD, AD in recent years, we're talking about a team that will heavily rely upon the offensive (and defensive) output of guys like Tatum, Mitchell, Brown, Barnes, Smart with Joe Harris, Derrick White, Brook Lopez, Plump Lee as the backup substitutions... Really? Is anyone scared of these guys? And that's like 3/4 of the team i just mentioned.
I think it's easier for Serbia to be efficient offensively than it is for this US team. Serbia has a clear system with Jokic as the focal point and Bogdanovic as the primary scorer and the rest of the squad knows how to complement each other. There's no such structure with the US. There never is, because it's always an assortment of different players coming together for a basketball Summer camp. The thing is that it never matters because when you bring the absolute best players in the World they're talent is enough to mask other deficiencies in terms of fit/chemistry. But the talent needs to be upper echelon, which guys on this US roster DEFINITELY aren't. Tatum and Mitchell are suppose to be the 2nd and 3rd options on this team behind Kemba but these dudes can't even perform admirably on their own NBA teams. Their impact isn't even close to all-star level.
If Pop had more time to coach this team, i could envision him coming up with some sort of system that makes the most out of the players, but from the games i watched so far, it's just a lot of players being left to their own devices, which in the case of guys like Tatum, Mitchell, Brown, Barnes etc. will inevitably mean a lot of 1v5 basketball. These players all have very poor reputations of moving the ball and the other guys who understand this concept like Smart, Middleton, White are just not good enough individually to impose themselves on the game to the degree needed, not to mention they off-ball options they have are bad as well.
Defensively, i don't see the lockdown potential either. Who is really a good defender on this roster in the first place? Turner, Smart, Middleton and that's about it. Maybe Tatum can be above average. Brown is average at best, probably will get exploited by savvy ball movement. Kemba is pretty bad on that end and he'll play heavy minutes. Lopez, Plump Lee, Harris, Barnes, Mitchell, White... nah, they ain't stopping nobody.