Wembanyama. I'm concerned

[lebootz21]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

The facts (metrics) don't support that.

So far, the metrics are pointing to a subpar offensive KD with a better defensive game but worst overall player due to net rating.

Argue on objectivity, not hype.

[BetterCallSaul]

in a different era his height would mean something and he wouldn't develop chucking 3s, and he'd be a force as a rookie. but it's a new era and they all grow up practicing 3s. he one of the worst on his team in 3% but he's #3 in attempts. there's NO rationale for it

The rationale is that some time soon, within a year or two, he will be automatic on open/semi open threes and completely unguardable and opponents will have to completely change the way they play in order to defend that.
Putting him in the post will only wear down his body and for very little gain as he's not actually a good post player either.

He is Giannis with a jump shot - the thing Giannis is famous for missing in order to be able to average like 40ppg. He's a taller AD. He will create his own path. That's what superstars and generational players do. You can't predict exactly what it will look like when he's dominating in 3-5 years but you know he will definitely be dominant.

he's 7'5. he's already unguardable. he's a 7'5 player who makes things difficult on himself by playing like he's 6'4. he doesn't need moves, he can just stand straight and tall and shoot from anywhere whenever he feels like it. no moves no nuttin' necessary. he's puts on a move, puts the ball on the floor,,,THEN he becomes guardable

he has height.....he doesn't use it

It's the NBA, being 7'5 doesn't make you unguardable at all. He's getting ready to go face to face with guys like Giannis and Embiid in the playoffs. He wants to take them out of the paint into where he's more comfortable. If he has to take contact and bang around in the paint with them he's playing to their game. He's trying to develop something that will make him unguardable at the highest level, not at LA Fitness. In case you haven't noticed, he's extremely skinny. I don't see the value in putting him at risk of injury by forcing him to be more "efficient" on a team that has 5 wins. Maybe they'd have 7 if he did. If Pop wanted, I'm sure he could find many ways to squeeze out another 5 wins from this team. What's the point?
I think the vision will always be to see if this guy can hit 3+ threes a game and then start driving into open lanes after a pump fake.

[BrianFitz]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

The facts (metrics) don't support that.

Thanks for coming to the conclusion, and admitting that you have no idea what you're talking about.

[lebootz21]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

The facts (metrics) don't support that.

Thanks for coming to the conclusion, and admitting that you have no idea what you're talking about.

I'm speaking from an objective standpoint. What metrics are you using? How can you even argue against net rating?

Please explain.

Maybe I'm an idiot. Please educate me.

[The Servant]

Wemby is currently missing 10ppg at about 75% efficiency by NOT playing with a PG who is looking for a 7'5 lob threat that can cut or pnr, simply because Pop wants to tank and develop Wemby's other skills.

[tsherkin]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

Why are you making it your mission to crap on him based on some overaggressive comment from someone months and months ago?

[Chanel Bomber]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

The facts (metrics) don't support that.

Thanks for coming to the conclusion, and admitting that you have no idea what you're talking about.

I'm speaking from an objective standpoint. What metrics are you using? How can you even argue against net rating?

Please explain.

Maybe I'm an idiot. Please educate me.

Net rating is a lineup stat, not an individual impact metric. You can sometimes see trends on who drives those ratings by comparing individual ratings of players who share a lot of their minutes on the court, and great players on good teams tend to drive strong net ratings, but otherwise this stat is often times too noisy to draw any conclusions on individual play because it doesn't filter out context.

[Madhouse]

He just turned 20 years old and is improving each game. There is nothing surprising or disappointing about him.

[lebootz21]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

Why are you making it your mission to crap on him based on some overaggressive comment from someone months and months ago?

I just don't buy the hype machine. I am looking at the metrics and net rating.

If you have a better argument than using net rating as a metric, then please enlighten me.

As of right now, all you have is hype and the eye test, which are both subjective.

[HotelVitale]

I'm not sure what your point is honestly. That a 19 year old will never improve his efficiency?

My point is if he wants to be a KD type player, I just don't see it. I can see him being better on defense, but KD is better than him in every advance metrics on the offensive end even in his rookie year if you take net rating as a factor.

I don't see how you can say he is better when his team net rating is absymal.

I can easily argue he's stat padding.

KD is a pretty steep comparison--he's one of the best offensive players ever--but net rating is a goofy thing to include in this argument. Too hard to make any case for it, too much else contributing to noise there.

Also 'stat padding' isn't going to be a helpful framework. What both KD and Wemby are doing is taking more shots than they should/would in a normal disciplined offense. They don't really know what the best shots are, or even what a good shot is for them, so they're just taking a lot of shots. Anything they can get off they're firing up. Coaches are certainly encouraging them to do this, and the point is to mess around some, especially since their teams are clearly not trying to win at all costs atm.

[lebootz21]

Thanks for coming to the conclusion, and admitting that you have no idea what you're talking about.

I'm speaking from an objective standpoint. What metrics are you using? How can you even argue against net rating?

Please explain.

Maybe I'm an idiot. Please educate me.

Net rating is a lineup stat, not an individual impact metric. You can sometimes see trends on who drives those ratings by comparing individual ratings of players who share a lot of their minutes on the court, and great players on good teams tend to drive strong net ratings, but otherwise this stat is often times too noisy to draw any conclusions on individual play because it doesn't filter out context.

Net rating has nothing to do with impact?

How can you say that with a straight face? It has everything to do with impact. It does not matter if it's individual or team net rating, it is the most important metric.

If you disagree, what other metric is better? Why do we only care about stats and highlights and not win%? It's all backwards to me.

Maybe I'm really an idiot and missing something.

Please educate me.

[tsherkin]

As of right now, all you have is hype and the eye test, which are both subjective.

And all you have is an argument no one is really making, which you are using to advance a campaign of negativity.

Wemby is 7th in the entire league in defensive EPM and has a -5.7 on/off defensively, which is outstanding.

You're looking at his O, and accurately noting that it isn't an ATG rookie season on offense, and using that to blather on about his impact in a broad (and inaccurate) sense.

[Slim Charlez]

Why are we comparing him to KD when he should be Lebron/Jordan tier level?

That's my point all along.

Look I think he'll be a solid player but all this hype of him being the second coming ... it's just that ... all hype.

The facts (metrics) don't support that.

So far, the metrics are pointing to a subpar offensive KD with a better defensive game but worst overall player due to net rating.

Argue on objectivity, not hype.

"Solid player" already looks crazy, in about a year or less it's going to look downright insane.

[Lalouie]

The rationale is that some time soon, within a year or two, he will be automatic on open/semi open threes and completely unguardable and opponents will have to completely change the way they play in order to defend that.
Putting him in the post will only wear down his body and for very little gain as he's not actually a good post player either.

He is Giannis with a jump shot - the thing Giannis is famous for missing in order to be able to average like 40ppg. He's a taller AD. He will create his own path. That's what superstars and generational players do. You can't predict exactly what it will look like when he's dominating in 3-5 years but you know he will definitely be dominant.

he's 7'5. he's already unguardable. he's a 7'5 player who makes things difficult on himself by playing like he's 6'4. he doesn't need moves, he can just stand straight and tall and shoot from anywhere whenever he feels like it. no moves no nuttin' necessary. he's puts on a move, puts the ball on the floor,,,THEN he becomes guardable

he has height.....he doesn't use it

It's the NBA, being 7'5 doesn't make you unguardable at all. He's getting ready to go face to face with guys like Giannis and Embiid in the playoffs. He wants to take them out of the paint into where he's more comfortable. If he has to take contact and bang around in the paint with them he's playing to their game. He's trying to develop something that will make him unguardable at the highest level, not at LA Fitness. In case you haven't noticed, he's extremely skinny. I don't see the value in putting him at risk of injury by forcing him to be more "efficient" on a team that has 5 wins. Maybe they'd have 7 if he did. If Pop wanted, I'm sure he could find many ways to squeeze out another 5 wins from this team. What's the point?
I think the vision will always be to see if this guy can hit 3+ threes a game and then start driving into open lanes after a pump fake.

so you're saying sas wants to cultivate a 7'5 wing
okay, we'll revisit this in 3yrs

like, you know why kd and kat and lauri are unguardable. not only are they 7' but they shoot 3s with the best of them. lauri and kd both were shooting 3s off the dribble since college at least - and both near 40%

so here's my math. by my reckoning wemby MUST shoot 3s at a similar ELITE clip or,,,what's the point. that is, what is the point of a 7'5 player shooting 3s at an average % - he has to be at least as good as kd/lauri/kat. anything less is not worth it because of the very fact that he's 7'5. 7'5 makes you untouchable. are you taking advantage of being untoucahable if you can only be average when 7'5 inherently makes you well above average in almost anything you do, and fully capable of MUCH MORE. does shooting 3s mean they have to "respect your outside game?" WHY?,,,you're 7'5.

what i'm saying is,,,7'5 changes everything. it's NOT being only 7'. it's not like giannis facing a wall so he had to expand his game(which btw i still think he would be better served to develop an 12foot game). as far as i can see. wemby shooting a 3 is a turnover

[lebootz21]

I'm not sure what your point is honestly. That a 19 year old will never improve his efficiency?

My point is if he wants to be a KD type player, I just don't see it. I can see him being better on defense, but KD is better than him in every advance metrics on the offensive end even in his rookie year if you take net rating as a factor.

I don't see how you can say he is better when his team net rating is absymal.

I can easily argue he's stat padding.

KD is a pretty steep comparison--he's one of the best offensive players ever--but net rating is a goofy thing to include in this argument. Too hard to make any case for it, too much else contributing to noise there.

Also 'stat padding' isn't going to be a helpful framework. What both KD and Wemby are doing is taking more shots than they should/would in a normal disciplined offense. They don't really know what the best shots are, or even what a good shot is for them, so they're just taking a lot of shots. Anything they can get off they're firing up. Coaches are certainly encouraging them to do this, and the point is to mess around some, especially since their teams are clearly not trying to win at all costs atm.

With all due respect, I am not impressed with his stats if his team is losing. At what point is it better for him to pass that 3 point shot to an open guard who shoots better than him?

If he's losing, he's contributing to a loss.

This is why net rating (team and individual) is so important. It's the only metric that matters.

[bledredwine]

Stating that Wemby is only shooting 44% as a center is surface level analysis. His volume and efficiency combo are on the list of all time greatest rookie seasons, from a purely scoring/efficiency perspective. How did other 19 year olds stack up?

Kevin Durant PER 15.8, .430 from the field

Lebron PER 18.3, .418 from the field

Wemby PER 20.4, .450 from the field

.... all at age 19 rookie season

Rookie efficiency is all in context, especially considering most rookies are inefficient in the first place.


Take Deandre Jordan for example; he was one of the league's most efficient players.
Was he an elite scorer? Obviously not. He got his shots assisted and off of dunks.

Now let's state Wemby's efficiency with context.

Victor is shooting 44% on high volume..... while making impressive moves, plays and creating his own shot in ways that almost all centers cannot. Plenty of these shots are challenging.

He's doing this with a terrible supporting squad who doesn't feed him near the rim as often as they should.
He's also doing it at the age of 19. His PER 20.... how many 19 year olds can you name in NBA history with a 20 PER or higher?

Jordan hit 28 PPG rookie season with .515 FG% at age 21, for perspective.

This is indication that Wemby is on the trajectory not only to becoming an elite scorer, but an elite volume scorer who can create at will. Aside from all this, he's also showing that he can be the best player in the league someday on the defensive end.

So if you've read and thought about this, please tell me if you genuinely should be concerned about his talent and effectiveness, given what he's doing at age 19.

No, you're wrong because he doesn't hit threes consistently therefore all of your factual analysis and great points are invalid

Well, dammit then

[Slim Charlez]

My point is if he wants to be a KD type player, I just don't see it. I can see him being better on defense, but KD is better than him in every advance metrics on the offensive end even in his rookie year if you take net rating as a factor.

I don't see how you can say he is better when his team net rating is absymal.

I can easily argue he's stat padding.

KD is a pretty steep comparison--he's one of the best offensive players ever--but net rating is a goofy thing to include in this argument. Too hard to make any case for it, too much else contributing to noise there.

Also 'stat padding' isn't going to be a helpful framework. What both KD and Wemby are doing is taking more shots than they should/would in a normal disciplined offense. They don't really know what the best shots are, or even what a good shot is for them, so they're just taking a lot of shots. Anything they can get off they're firing up. Coaches are certainly encouraging them to do this, and the point is to mess around some, especially since their teams are clearly not trying to win at all costs atm.

With all due respect, I am not impressed with his stats if his team is losing. At what point is it better for him to pass that 3 point shot to an open guard who shoots better than him?

If he's losing, he's contributing to a loss.

This is why net rating is so important. It's the only metric that matters.

You mean like last night when he got Jones a wide open 3 to tie and he missed it?

Have you even watched the Spurs this year by any chance or are you just talking for the sake of talking? Because not very many guys can make an open 3 on that garbage roster.

[lebootz21]

KD is a pretty steep comparison--he's one of the best offensive players ever--but net rating is a goofy thing to include in this argument. Too hard to make any case for it, too much else contributing to noise there.

Also 'stat padding' isn't going to be a helpful framework. What both KD and Wemby are doing is taking more shots than they should/would in a normal disciplined offense. They don't really know what the best shots are, or even what a good shot is for them, so they're just taking a lot of shots. Anything they can get off they're firing up. Coaches are certainly encouraging them to do this, and the point is to mess around some, especially since their teams are clearly not trying to win at all costs atm.

With all due respect, I am not impressed with his stats if his team is losing. At what point is it better for him to pass that 3 point shot to an open guard who shoots better than him?

If he's losing, he's contributing to a loss.

This is why net rating is so important. It's the only metric that matters.

You mean like last night when he got Jones a wide open 3 to tie and he missed it?

Have you even watched the Spurs this year by any chance or are you just talking for the sake of talking? Because not very many guys can make an open 3 on that garbage roster.

If he's making the team better, why are they just as bad (if not worse) than last year's? The lineup is pretty much the same except the addition of him.

If winning is not the end goal, then what is it?

P.S. Please don't use the conspiracy tanking argument.

[Lalouie]

My point is if he wants to be a KD type player, I just don't see it. I can see him being better on defense, but KD is better than him in every advance metrics on the offensive end even in his rookie year if you take net rating as a factor.

I don't see how you can say he is better when his team net rating is absymal.

I can easily argue he's stat padding.

KD is a pretty steep comparison--he's one of the best offensive players ever--but net rating is a goofy thing to include in this argument. Too hard to make any case for it, too much else contributing to noise there.

Also 'stat padding' isn't going to be a helpful framework. What both KD and Wemby are doing is taking more shots than they should/would in a normal disciplined offense. They don't really know what the best shots are, or even what a good shot is for them, so they're just taking a lot of shots. Anything they can get off they're firing up. Coaches are certainly encouraging them to do this, and the point is to mess around some, especially since their teams are clearly not trying to win at all costs atm.

With all due respect, I am not impressed with his stats if his team is losing. At what point is it better for him to pass that 3 point shot to an open guard who shoots better than him?

If he's losing, he's contributing to a loss.

This is why net rating (team and individual) is so important. It's the only metric that matters.

yes. wemby shooting 3s is stat padding. you are correct. if we think stat padding is numbers that do not lead to wins, then wemby is stat padding when he is the 10th worst player on his own team in 3% and 3rd in attempts

[Bornstellar]

KD is a pretty steep comparison--he's one of the best offensive players ever--but net rating is a goofy thing to include in this argument. Too hard to make any case for it, too much else contributing to noise there.

Also 'stat padding' isn't going to be a helpful framework. What both KD and Wemby are doing is taking more shots than they should/would in a normal disciplined offense. They don't really know what the best shots are, or even what a good shot is for them, so they're just taking a lot of shots. Anything they can get off they're firing up. Coaches are certainly encouraging them to do this, and the point is to mess around some, especially since their teams are clearly not trying to win at all costs atm.

With all due respect, I am not impressed with his stats if his team is losing. At what point is it better for him to pass that 3 point shot to an open guard who shoots better than him?

If he's losing, he's contributing to a loss.

This is why net rating is so important. It's the only metric that matters.

You mean like last night when he got Jones a wide open 3 to tie and he missed it?

Have you even watched the Spurs this year by any chance or are you just talking for the sake of talking? Because not very many guys can make an open 3 on that garbage roster.

We both know the answer to this question