The 'Jokic has no help' narrative sure came and went

[BelgradeNugget]

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Read on Twitter

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Jokic is even getting help from scorekeepers.

In Indiana

Anyway NBA has a strange way of counting assists. Nothing new

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[AleksandarN]

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Read on Twitter

[/x]

Jokic is even getting help from scorekeepers.

In Indiana

Anyway NBA has a strange way of counting assists. Nothing new

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Not only that look in the 90s with Stockton and how some of his assists were counted which were worse than LeBron’s. Stockton would pass it to Malone in the post and Malone would iso for like 5 seconds and John would get The assist.

[yellowknifer]

No, that’s what RAPM has taught you. A metric that has Caruso as the third most impactful defender in the last 29 years and Lamar Odom as a top 50 defender.

Again, how is this metric that usurps seemingly our eye test and every other metric calculated?

It doesn't show that. Though Caruso being a top 10 defender doesn't seem surprising at all.

But RAPM usurps our eye test because it work better than our or anyone's eye test. It's 2025, the debates over if RAPM works or if NBA team's use it is over. It's our most powerful tool to judge what's happening that our eyes aren't seeing.

You’re using it, how is it calculated? Imagine it has Draymond Green as a top ten player in the last 29 years and has Mike Conley and Lilliard having an equal impact. I’d throw that **** away in the trash where it belongs

Caruso is truly an amazing defender. Also all the talk about rim protection and ignoring that OKC is playing some all time level defense and hasn’t needed much at all because they are so effective horizontally. Having Chet back will help, but they don’t need it since most teams struggle to get in the paint against them in the first place.

Also Jokic is a good defender. Watch him in their title run. Guy was hustling like crazy and constantly in good position. He definitely bothers people he is near too.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

No, that’s what RAPM has taught you. A metric that has Caruso as the third most impactful defender in the last 29 years and Lamar Odom as a top 50 defender.

Again, how is this metric that usurps seemingly our eye test and every other metric calculated?

It doesn't show that. Though Caruso being a top 10 defender doesn't seem surprising at all.

But RAPM usurps our eye test because it work better than our or anyone's eye test. It's 2025, the debates over if RAPM works or if NBA team's use it is over. It's our most powerful tool to judge what's happening that our eyes aren't seeing.

You’re using it, how is it calculated? Imagine it has Draymond Green as a top ten player in the last 29 years and has Mike Conley and Lilliard having an equal impact. I’d throw that **** away in the trash where it belongs

not really, it's saying that Dray was top ten in value created in the role he was in.
It's not the same thing.

[hardenASG13]

It doesn't show that. Though Caruso being a top 10 defender doesn't seem surprising at all.

But RAPM usurps our eye test because it work better than our or anyone's eye test. It's 2025, the debates over if RAPM works or if NBA team's use it is over. It's our most powerful tool to judge what's happening that our eyes aren't seeing.

Ho
You’re using it, how is it calculated? Imagine it has Draymond Green as a top ten player in the last 29 years and has Mike Conley and Lilliard having an equal impact. I’d throw that **** away in the trash where it belongs

not really, it's saying that Dray was top ten in value created in the role he was in.
It's not the same thing.

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

[DimesandKnicks]

Ho
You’re using it, how is it calculated? Imagine it has Draymond Green as a top ten player in the last 29 years and has Mike Conley and Lilliard having an equal impact. I’d throw that **** away in the trash where it belongs

not really, it's saying that Dray was top ten in value created in the role he was in.
It's not the same thing.

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

This seems like a value for the metric you’re creating yourself. It says that RAPm measures players overall impact on team performance, not in their role.

[dhsilv2]

Ho
You’re using it, how is it calculated? Imagine it has Draymond Green as a top ten player in the last 29 years and has Mike Conley and Lilliard having an equal impact. I’d throw that **** away in the trash where it belongs

not really, it's saying that Dray was top ten in value created in the role he was in.
It's not the same thing.

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

1. Have you not read how it's calculated or are you just wanting to annoy people with the fact that nobody is going to write out the 60,000+ equations that have to be solved simultaneously which this forum couldn't even support someone posting? Cause you can google how is RAPM calculated and it'll explain the type of regression model it's using.

2. The goal of any metric like this is that one can use it to predict future events. RAPM based metrics have had the most success vs vegas and in challenges by people trying to find models to figure out value on the court. Or if you want to just take the NBA's word for it...go look at how many websites end up going down because the people who run them get hired by NBA teams to work for them. These teams aren't paying millions of dollars to math nerds because it doesn't improve things like scouting and player evaluations. And they sure as heck aren't paying them to tell them that 3>2.

[dhsilv2]

not really, it's saying that Dray was top ten in value created in the role he was in.
It's not the same thing.

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

This seems like a value for the metric you’re creating yourself. It says that RAPm measures players overall impact on team performance, not in their role.

How can a metric leave role out? Of course their role is part of it.

[hardenASG13]

not really, it's saying that Dray was top ten in value created in the role he was in.
It's not the same thing.

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

1. Have you not read how it's calculated or are you just wanting to annoy people with the fact that nobody is going to write out the 60,000+ equations that have to be solved simultaneously which this forum couldn't even support someone posting? Cause you can google how is RAPM calculated and it'll explain the type of regression model it's using.

2. The goal of any metric like this is that one can use it to predict future events. RAPM based metrics have had the most success vs vegas and in challenges by people trying to find models to figure out value on the court. Or if you want to just take the NBA's word for it...go look at how many websites end up going down because the people who run them get hired by NBA teams to work for them. These teams aren't paying millions of dollars to math nerds because it doesn't improve things like scouting and player evaluations. And they sure as heck aren't paying them to tell them that 3>2.

I've googled it and found no explanation, which is why I ask. Especially as it and stats like it are used a major arguing points here routinely, yet nobody can explain how it's calculated or why it's an effective argument point. NBA scouts and GMs make massive mistakes all the time, despite using it.

[dhsilv2]

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

1. Have you not read how it's calculated or are you just wanting to annoy people with the fact that nobody is going to write out the 60,000+ equations that have to be solved simultaneously which this forum couldn't even support someone posting? Cause you can google how is RAPM calculated and it'll explain the type of regression model it's using.

2. The goal of any metric like this is that one can use it to predict future events. RAPM based metrics have had the most success vs vegas and in challenges by people trying to find models to figure out value on the court. Or if you want to just take the NBA's word for it...go look at how many websites end up going down because the people who run them get hired by NBA teams to work for them. These teams aren't paying millions of dollars to math nerds because it doesn't improve things like scouting and player evaluations. And they sure as heck aren't paying them to tell them that 3>2.

I've googled it and found no explanation, which is why I ask. Especially as it and stats like it are used a major arguing points here routinely, yet nobody can explain how it's calculated or why it's an effective argument point. NBA scouts and GMs make massive mistakes all the time, despite using it.

First, of course people are wrong...math or not. You can't predict if a player might not like working for your team. Won't like your coach. Gets hurt. Gets lazy. And sometimes...things just don't work in the real world like on paper. But if you've got something predictive. It's going to obviously be more accurate looking backwards. But that's not a good test if it works. If it has predictive value then we can feel safe it has strong backwards power. This is the opposite of what Hollinger did with PER where he made sure MJ was the best all time when he built it. A sort of backwards looking solution (not that it's a bad assumption either).

People explain RAPM all the time. Most people just don't understand the explanation because the answer is really kinda simple while being also really complicated.

β = ( XTX + ƛI )-1XTY

This is the formula.

Here's a write up that's decent enough for someone without linear algebra or just being nerdy enough to learn this stuff for fun.

https://basketballstat.home.blog/2019/08/14/regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-rapm/

Here's the earliest paper I'm aware of on this topic, of course from the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

https://supermariogiacomazzo.github.io/STOR538_WEBSITE/Articles/Basketball/Basketball_Sill.pdf

Here's a lecture on it by a guy...who last I looked is free, but he was working for the Mavs after ESPN. And of course one of the most public figures in this field.

Watch on YouTube

[DimesandKnicks]

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

This seems like a value for the metric you’re creating yourself. It says that RAPm measures players overall impact on team performance, not in their role.

How can a metric leave role out? Of course their role is part of it.

Maybe you can explain that to us and explain why with that in mind how high Jokic ranks defensive in this metric holds so much value if it’s reflective of his role

[dhsilv2]

This seems like a value for the metric you’re creating yourself. It says that RAPm measures players overall impact on team performance, not in their role.

How can a metric leave role out? Of course their role is part of it.

Maybe you can explain that to us and explain why with that in mind how high Jokic ranks defensive in this metric holds so much value if it’s reflective of his role

How can we judge a player outside of the role they play on the court? Remember how I keep going back to drop centers?

I mean Gobert is a great defender. But he'd be terrible if he was your POA wing. But no coach would use him like that.

Now a different look would be say peak Danny Green vs I dunno Zach LaVine. Zach is on paper likely a better basketball player. But on most teams, Green would improve your win total more (again at his peak). So which player would you expect to have a higher RAPM? I sure as hell would expect Green to. Because in his role he adds more value to his team.

[DimesandKnicks]

How can a metric leave role out? Of course their role is part of it.

Maybe you can explain that to us and explain why with that in mind how high Jokic ranks defensive in this metric holds so much value if it’s reflective of his role

How can we judge a player outside of the role they play on the court? Remember how I keep going back to drop centers?

I mean Gobert is a great defender. But he'd be terrible if he was your POA wing. But no coach would use him like that.

Now a different look would be say peak Danny Green vs I dunno Zach LaVine. Zach is on paper likely a better basketball player. But on most teams, Green would improve your win total more (again at his peak). So which player would you expect to have a higher RAPM? I sure as hell would expect Green to. Because in his role he adds more value to his team.

I mean explain how the metric controls for player role.

[dhsilv2]

Maybe you can explain that to us and explain why with that in mind how high Jokic ranks defensive in this metric holds so much value if it’s reflective of his role

How can we judge a player outside of the role they play on the court? Remember how I keep going back to drop centers?

I mean Gobert is a great defender. But he'd be terrible if he was your POA wing. But no coach would use him like that.

Now a different look would be say peak Danny Green vs I dunno Zach LaVine. Zach is on paper likely a better basketball player. But on most teams, Green would improve your win total more (again at his peak). So which player would you expect to have a higher RAPM? I sure as hell would expect Green to. Because in his role he adds more value to his team.

I mean explain how the metric controls for player role.

How could it not? It can't NOT look at role as that's what they're doing on the court.

[DimesandKnicks]

How can we judge a player outside of the role they play on the court? Remember how I keep going back to drop centers?

I mean Gobert is a great defender. But he'd be terrible if he was your POA wing. But no coach would use him like that.

Now a different look would be say peak Danny Green vs I dunno Zach LaVine. Zach is on paper likely a better basketball player. But on most teams, Green would improve your win total more (again at his peak). So which player would you expect to have a higher RAPM? I sure as hell would expect Green to. Because in his role he adds more value to his team.

I mean explain how the metric controls for player role.

How could it not? It can't NOT look at role as that's what they're doing on the court.

You’re saying it does, I’m asking you how. FYI I watched that video like a year ago when you all first started talking about RAPM

[Ryoga Hibiki]

How is it calculated though and why is it the best way to judge basketball players?

1. Have you not read how it's calculated or are you just wanting to annoy people with the fact that nobody is going to write out the 60,000+ equations that have to be solved simultaneously which this forum couldn't even support someone posting? Cause you can google how is RAPM calculated and it'll explain the type of regression model it's using.

2. The goal of any metric like this is that one can use it to predict future events. RAPM based metrics have had the most success vs vegas and in challenges by people trying to find models to figure out value on the court. Or if you want to just take the NBA's word for it...go look at how many websites end up going down because the people who run them get hired by NBA teams to work for them. These teams aren't paying millions of dollars to math nerds because it doesn't improve things like scouting and player evaluations. And they sure as heck aren't paying them to tell them that 3>2.

I've googled it and found no explanation, which is why I ask. Especially as it and stats like it are used a major arguing points here routinely, yet nobody can explain how it's calculated or why it's an effective argument point. NBA scouts and GMs make massive mistakes all the time, despite using it.

basically you start with the pbp data, and you look at the +/- of every combination of 10 players on the court.
Then you run a regression analysis to estimate what players are more often in good lineups vs bad lineups, who they are against, and this way estimating the contribution, positive or negative, of each player.
This can be very noisy, but the larger the sample the better.

Very important: pure RAPM doesn't use other info, no boxscore, nothing. Just looks at how the team performs with different lineups.
So, when you see the 90% of the players in the positive the most are the ones you expect, I recommend to question your biases for the other 10%. What are uou missing?
Moreover, it's not perfect, it's not meant to rank, there's an error there. But not big enough to throw.everythinh away.

[dhsilv2]

I mean explain how the metric controls for player role.

How could it not? It can't NOT look at role as that's what they're doing on the court.

You’re saying it does, I’m asking you how. FYI I watched that video like a year ago when you all first started talking about RAPM

Because the player is playing in their role when on the court. I'm not sure what else I can say to that. It can only show what is happening on the court. But we as humans know that one on one Dray isn't beating a lot of players, but in his role he's far more valuable to his team than those guys. But I can't swap Lebron and Green and expect Green to have the same impact in Lebron's role.

[TMac Culloch]

Not retaining key pieces of a championship team to dodge the luxury tax should be universally disparaged. Do you have a personal relationship with Calvin Boothe?

Nuggets have no depth except for Westbrook and he asked to go there

[Exp0sed]

Not retaining key pieces of a championship team to dodge the luxury tax should be universally disparaged. Do you have a personal relationship with Calvin Boothe?

Nuggets have no depth except for Westbrook and he asked to go there

in truth, no1 wanted WB at all. it was Jokic who asked to sign him, it wasn't WB who asked to go there. once he learned that Jokic speifically asked for the FO to sign him - he was on board

as for the Nuggets cap situation - it's pretty bleak. it isn't like it used to be, 2nd apron has real implications on team building and flexibility. not being able to sign guys over a certain wage, not being able to aggragate contracts in a trade etc.

KCP is a good player, a winner and a proven playoff player you can count on for leadership, defense and hitting the open 3's but he's def replacable. Nuggets next season are going to be paying 55m to Jokic, 50m to Murray (!) and 38m to MPJ, that's crazy...

AG is 23M more so that's 166M for just these four starters, thus you kinda have to go with a guy on a controlled rookie contract (preferably more than one). CB will only be making 5M next season, paying 20m to KCP simply wasn't feasible as they're also stuck with NNaji's 8M

Nuggets are 7M below the 2nd apron rn, they'd be well over it with KCP

[TMac Culloch]

I'm actually alright with them not retaining KCP more than Bruce Brown and Jeff Green

Celtics are my least favorite team and I admire what they did in the offseason. I hated Mavs for letting Chandler go after the championship..

If you can get another chip you maximize the window no matter the cost

Not retaining key pieces of a championship team to dodge the luxury tax should be universally disparaged. Do you have a personal relationship with Calvin Boothe?

Nuggets have no depth except for Westbrook and he asked to go there

in truth, no1 wanted WB at all. it was Jokic who asked to sign him, it wasn't WB who asked to go there. once he learned that Jokic speifically asked for the FO to sign him - he was on board

as for the Nuggets cap situation - it's pretty bleak. it isn't like it used to be, 2nd apron has real implications on team building and flexibility. not being able to sign guys over a certain wage, not being able to aggragate contracts in a trade etc.

KCP is a good player, a winner and a proven playoff player you can count on for leadership, defense and hitting the open 3's but he's def replacable. Nuggets next season are going to be paying 55m to Jokic, 50m to Murray (!) and 38m to MPJ, that's crazy...

AG is 23M more so that's 166M for just these four starters, thus you kinda have to go with a guy on a controlled rookie contract (preferably more than one). CB will only be making 5M next season, paying 20m to KCP simply wasn't feasible as they're also stuck with NNaji's 8M

Nuggets are 7M below the 2nd apron rn, they'd be well over it with KCP