Derrick Rose should've never gotten a 3 point shot

[alucryts]

You both have the same idea, just disagreeing on the numbers.

Rose should return to his ridiculously good midrange game, and continue drawing fouls at the rim like he did last year. He should still shoot the 3, but when it comes in the flow of the offense.

Horrible start for Rose this year. Hope he figures out that he can't play this passively for the Bulls to win.

well yeah, because when most point out derrick rose being efficient last year, they point to his 3 point shot and said it helped him be more efficient.

you look at his efg mvp season it was 48.5 and it took account the 3 pt shot is worth more than 2 pts and his 2 point shots

u look at his 2010 season his efg is 49.5

yo look at his rookie season his efg is 48.2

so basically when taking into account his rookie season and his mvp season, efficiency was exactly the same.

and TS flawed when looking at Drose and efficiency because DWADE had the exact same TS last year.


And look at D Wade second season in the NBA he was more efficient than Rose with a TS of 560 while Rose has a better 3 point percentage and FT percentage, only thing that was better than Rose was his FG.


So why DWADE was more efficient his second year than 2011, was because he got to the line and didn't take 3s and had a high FG.

My argument is that his threes correlate with his increased FTA drawn. If he went back to exactly his sophomore percentages and volume from mid range and kept the FTA up, yes it would be an increase. The biggest increase to me would be the same as last year, a little less 3PA, and be better with the mid range shots he did attempt. His drop in eFG% last year was because he was bad from the mid range compared to his 2nd year.

[Balls Mahoney]

But there are negatives from 3's that you don't always get from 2's, such as long rebounds which lead to opponent fastbreaks

There is also a much greater chance at an offensive rebound on a missed three though, for two reasons:

Longer rebounds are more likely to fly over the heads of defenders into the hands of offensive players, who are generally closer to the basket than offensive players.

It is less predictable where a missed three will bounce to, making it harder for defenders to just "box out" effectively.

[CablexDeadpool]

You both have the same idea, just disagreeing on the numbers.

Rose should return to his ridiculously good midrange game, and continue drawing fouls at the rim like he did last year. He should still shoot the 3, but when it comes in the flow of the offense.

Horrible start for Rose this year. Hope he figures out that he can't play this passively for the Bulls to win.

well yeah, because when most point out derrick rose being efficient last year, they point to his 3 point shot and said it helped him be more efficient.

you look at his efg mvp season it was 48.5 and it took account the 3 pt shot is worth more than 2 pts and his 2 point shots

u look at his 2010 season his efg is 49.5

yo look at his rookie season his efg is 48.2

so basically when taking into account his rookie season and his mvp season, efficiency was exactly the same.

and TS flawed when looking at Drose and efficiency because DWADE had the exact same TS last year.


And look at D Wade second season in the NBA he was more efficient than Rose with a TS of 560 while Rose has a better 3 point percentage and FT percentage, only thing that was better than Rose was his FG.


So why DWADE was more efficient his second year than 2011, was because he got to the line and didn't take 3s and had a high FG.

My argument is that his threes correlate with his increased FTA drawn. If he went back to exactly his sophomore percentages and volume from mid range and kept the FTA up, yes it would be an increase. The biggest increase to me would be the same as last year, a little less 3PA, and be better with the mid range shots he did attempt. His drop in eFG% last year was because he was bad from the mid range compared to his 2nd year.

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

The reason why he don't get to the line because he doesn't take contact. He twists and contorts his body. He doesn't take hits. He was manning up and taking more hits last year.

Dwade doesn't have a 3 ball either and he gets to the line and more efficient than Rose because he takes contact.

[alucryts]

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

The reason why he don't get to the line because he doesn't take contact. He twists and contorts his body. He doesn't take hits. He was manning up and taking more hits last year.

Dwade doesn't have a 3 ball either and he gets to the line and more efficient than Rose because he takes contact.

That's true. This point doesn't have much beyond opinion to back it up at all. It's just my opinion that Rose's 3 point shot opens up the floor for him to drive the lane easier.

[bullsnewdynasty]

No disrespect to you or your shot chart but I've watched every game of Rose's career (probably just like you) and I don't care what that thing shows. Call me a caveman or whatever for not welcoming those advanced metrics, but watching Rose play is becoming more and more puzzling with each passing game. Yeah, he might of been more efficient last year, but I liked his second year better. I know his FT's were down, but he didn't chuck three's and his midrange shot was deadly and he stayed with it. There was a point last season where he was averaging 7's three's a game! I hate watching him play like this and don't care if it did raise his efficiency. He needs to go back to the midrange game, attack the lane and STOP launching three's

In his 2nd year Rose barely got to the line and shot lots of long 2 point jumpers, the most inefficient shot in the game. I liked his shot selection more than last year, but his play as a whole was better last year.

[CablexDeadpool]

No disrespect to you or your shot chart but I've watched every game of Rose's career (probably just like you) and I don't care what that thing shows. Call me a caveman or whatever for not welcoming those advanced metrics, but watching Rose play is becoming more and more puzzling with each passing game. Yeah, he might of been more efficient last year, but I liked his second year better. I know his FT's were down, but he didn't chuck three's and his midrange shot was deadly and he stayed with it. There was a point last season where he was averaging 7's three's a game! I hate watching him play like this and don't care if it did raise his efficiency. He needs to go back to the midrange game, attack the lane and STOP launching three's

In his 2nd year Rose barely got to the line and shot lots of long 2 point jumpers, the most inefficient shot in the game. I liked his shot selection more than last year, but his play as a whole was better last year.

he was making 44 percent and made 3 a game.

[alucryts]

No disrespect to you or your shot chart but I've watched every game of Rose's career (probably just like you) and I don't care what that thing shows. Call me a caveman or whatever for not welcoming those advanced metrics, but watching Rose play is becoming more and more puzzling with each passing game. Yeah, he might of been more efficient last year, but I liked his second year better. I know his FT's were down, but he didn't chuck three's and his midrange shot was deadly and he stayed with it. There was a point last season where he was averaging 7's three's a game! I hate watching him play like this and don't care if it did raise his efficiency. He needs to go back to the midrange game, attack the lane and STOP launching three's

In his 2nd year Rose barely got to the line and shot lots of long 2 point jumpers, the most inefficient shot in the game. I liked his shot selection more than last year, but his play as a whole was better last year.

he was making 44 percent and made 3 a game.

44% on any two point shot, ignoring everything but that, is horrible efficiency. That is solidly worse efficiency than Brandon Jennings rookie year actually. Even the game's best two point jump shooters are inefficient when shooting them.

[Johnny Firpo]

In order to have a long career, he needs that 3 point shot, the beating he's taking is too much as it is. And i'm not necessarily talking about fouls, the thing that kills knees is mostly the landing, and especially landing in awkward positions. And on top of it all, the 3 point shot is the most efficient shot in basketball if you can make them around 40%, or better, and then we didn't even count the effects of spacing. It's invaluable.

[CablexDeadpool]

"44% on any two point shot, ignoring everything but that, is horrible efficiency. That is solidly worse efficiency than Brandon Jennings rookie year actually. Even the game's best two point jump shooters are inefficient when shooting them."

alucrypts

44 percent on midrange shots is amazing.


Derrick Rose was worse last year, his overall game was off besides getting the line and converting and getting to the rim and hitting that 1.5 three a game.


everything inbetween was bad.

1st 2 years in the league Derrick Rose was one of the best midrange shooters in the game. He added the 3 point shot and became average.

[alucryts]

"44% on any two point shot, ignoring everything but that, is horrible efficiency. That is solidly worse efficiency than Brandon Jennings rookie year actually. Even the game's best two point jump shooters are inefficient when shooting them."

alucrypts

44 percent on midrange shots is amazing.


Derrick Rose was worse last year, his overall game was off besides getting the line and converting and getting to the rim and hitting that 1.5 three a game.


everything inbetween was bad.

1st 2 years in the league Derrick Rose was one of the best midrange shooters in the game. He added the 3 point shot and became average.

I agree that mid range became terrible.

44% on mid range shots is amazing for mid range shots. Unfortunately, 44% on a 2 point field goal in the context of scoring overall is pathetic/bad. Brandon Jennings gets flogged for his efficiency and he beat that out. It does provide spacing for drives as a side benefit, but 33% from deep on the same volume will beat it every time and provide even better spacing. What Rose should focus on is maintaining between 4-5 threes a night while improving the mid range shots he does take. Converting 33% 3 point shots back into 44% 2 point shots is a step backward overall.

[CablexDeadpool]

In order to have a long career, he needs that 3 point shot, the beating he's taking is too much as it is. And i'm not necessarily talking about fouls, the thing that kills knees is mostly the landing, and especially landing in awkward positions. And on top of it all, the 3 point shot is the most efficient shot in basketball if you can make them around 40%, or better, and then we didn't even count the effects of spacing. It's invaluable.

Most Scorers are not 3 point shooters, look at every scorer in the game they all go through that 3 point chucker phase.


The best scorers, in the game are money from rim to 20 feet or they are money from the 3.

3 point shot from your best 2 point player is bad.

Vince Carter added the 3 point shot and never wanted to go back in the paint again because it's easier. It is easy to just launch a 3 and run back down the court than to go in the trenches and take a beating and get fouled.

3 point shot is a cop out, MJ didn't get a 3 point shot, he got a post game. Kobe starting to slow down on the 3 point shot and get a post game. Lebron stopped relying on the 3 point shot.

Unless you 38 percent and up, it's a bad shot for you to take especially when you probably only gonna get 19 to 21 shots a game and 5 of your shots are 3 pointers and you hitting 33 to 35 percent.

Billups can take 3s all day long because he a 40 percent 3 point shooter and he gets to the line.

Kevin Durant is as hooter, the 3 point shot and the midrange shot is his game.

Not everybody needs a 3 point shot.

[Ax2SG]

Rose should never have a possession where he dribbles around the 3-point line, doesn't pass, and then shoots a 3. That happened a few times last night, and that's something a guy like Baron Davis does. Its just not a good habit.

I completely agree with this.

The 3's he drained against the Lakers, 3 were from getting a pass, a little jump and then shoot. Most of the time he shoot it like that, it's effective, or at least it seems effective as he releases it. Shooting it in his comfort zone. The other one was from getting a pick and roll with Boozer, again, without rushing it.

Last night he chucked some 3's and they seemed to be desperate ones, trying to cut the lead as the game was already reaching its end. As a Bulls fan, I hate it when he do that, even tho it's a beauty when they fall and cut the lead or gets you ahead. But I remember, near the end of the game when the Bulls made the run and got within 8, Korver had made 2 3's, his catch and shoot style, then Rose gets the ball, runs across the court and chucks a 3. He got pissed at himself because he knows he didn't do it a better way, and he also killed the momentum.

[alucryts]

Most Scorers are not 3 point shooters, look at every scorer in the game they all go through that 3 point chucker phase.


The best scorers, in the game are money from rim to 20 feet or they are money from the 3.

3 point shot from your best 2 point player is bad.

Vince Carter added the 3 point shot and never wanted to go back in the paint again because it's easier. It is easy to just launch a 3 and run back down the court than to go in the trenches and take a beating and get fouled.

3 point shot is a cop out, MJ didn't get a 3 point shot, he got a post game. Kobe starting to slow down on the 3 point shot and get a post game. Lebron stopped relying on the 3 point shot.

Unless you 38 percent and up, it's a bad shot for you to take especially when you probably only gonna get 19 to 21 shots a game and 5 of your shots are 3 pointers and you hitting 33 to 35 percent.

Billups can take 3s all day long because he a 40 percent 3 point shooter and he gets to the line.

Kevin Durant is as hooter, the 3 point shot and the midrange shot is his game.

Not everybody needs a 3 point shot.

For any dominant scorer like Rose, Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Jordan etc. their main efficiency is founded in drawing free throws. The post game, mid range shot, and 3 point shot are all there to force the defense not to pack the paint and sag off; sagging off hurts their chances at drawing free throws. Every shot outside of a layup or a shooting foul is bad for efficiency unless you can (like you said) hit like 38% of three point shots. The only purpose of these shots is to space the defense and keep them honest.

If Wade could shoot 33% from beyond the arc, he should most definitely convert some mid range shots into three point shots. At NO point should it become a focus of his game like what Rose is trying, but it would boost his efficiency if he did so. The same goes for Lebron. In some of Lebron's most dominating statistical seasons with the Cavs, he was at 5 threes a game at 33%. The only thing Rose needs to do is take a three or two less a game and start driving more for fouls just like he did last year for the last 22 games.

[CablexDeadpool]

"44% on any two point shot, ignoring everything but that, is horrible efficiency. That is solidly worse efficiency than Brandon Jennings rookie year actually. Even the game's best two point jump shooters are inefficient when shooting them."

alucrypts

44 percent on midrange shots is amazing.


Derrick Rose was worse last year, his overall game was off besides getting the line and converting and getting to the rim and hitting that 1.5 three a game.


everything inbetween was bad.

1st 2 years in the league Derrick Rose was one of the best midrange shooters in the game. He added the 3 point shot and became average.

I agree that mid range became terrible.

44% on mid range shots is amazing for mid range shots. Unfortunately, 44% on a 2 point field goal in the context of scoring overall is pathetic/bad. Brandon Jennings gets flogged for his efficiency and he beat that out. It does provide spacing for drives as a side benefit, but 33% from deep on the same volume will beat it every time and provide even better spacing. What Rose should focus on is maintaining between 4-5 threes a night while improving the mid range shots he does take. Converting 33% 3 point shots back into 44% 2 point shots is a step backward overall.

no it's not because he wasn't making any in the first place. He only got 1.5 per game. that's only 4.5 points.

He was making 3 midrange shots and had 6 points a game with the midrange.

Only reason it is considered efficient, is because you are making 1 more point with one shot.

so it takes derrick rose 5 shots to make 4.5, or it takes him 7 shots to make 6 points...you think about it.

you want him to keep bricking 3.5 shots just to get 4.5 points or he gets 6 points while missing 4 shots

he's not efficient shooting the 3.

and rose was 48 percent efficient on 2s MVP year. and 33 percent on 3s. 8.4/16.7 from 2

rose was 50 percent efficient on 2s 2010 year and 26 percent on 3s. 7.2/14.9 from 2

so lets take his fts from mvp year and add them to his 2010 year.

he makes an estimated 26 points while making 8.4/16.7 from 2s and shooting 5.9/6.9 and 85 percent from the ft line and while making .2/.8 from 3 with 26 efficiency.

so lets say rose abandons the 3 game in his mvp season, no 3s. we also take away his dismal midrange shooting and add the good midrange shooting he didn the previous year. So I only changed the 16 - 23 shooting, everything else is the same.

8.5/17.4 from 2point, 5.9/6.9 from ft line with 85 percent. he averages an estimated 23 points per game with 48.8 efficiency.

Derrick Rose 3 point shooting only adds 2 extra points.

Case closed, shooting the 3 ball at the volume he does doesn't add any efficiency to his game.

[SheSaidSheWas18]

Rose is easily the worst 3-point shooting player in the NBA. He should either work on the shot or take it out for good.

[Tave]

One thing you have to consider is that missed shots result in more fast break opportunities for the other teams, so it isn't as simple as points per possession.

Additionally, the lower percentage the shot, the more likely it is to result in streak patterns, which means you're screwed should it fail you at the wrong moment. Even the best 3-point shooters in the game are going to have a lot of nights when they can't hit anything. That isn't as big of a problem with inside scorers.

[alucryts]

no it's not because he wasn't making any in the first place. He only got 1.5 per game. that's only 4.5 points.

He was making 3 midrange shots and had 6 points a game with the midrange.

Only reason it is considered efficient, is because you are making 1 more point with one shot.

so it takes derrick rose 5 shots to make 4.5, or it takes him 7 shots to make 6 points...you think about it.

you want him to keep bricking 3.5 shots just to get 4.5 points or he gets 6 points while missing 4 shots

he's not efficient shooting the 3.

and rose was 48 percent efficient on 2s MVP year. and 33 percent on 3s. 8.4/16.7 from 2

rose was 50 percent efficient on 2s 2010 year and 26 percent on 3s. 7.2/14.9 from 2

so lets take his fts from mvp year and add them to his 2010 year.

he makes an estimated 26 points while making 8.4/16.7 from 2s and shooting 5.9/6.9 and 85 percent from the ft line and while making .2/.8 from 3 with 26 efficiency.

so lets say rose abandons the 3 game in his mvp season, no 3s. we also take away his dismal midrange shooting and add the good midrange shooting he didn the previous year. So I only changed the 16 - 23 shooting, everything else is the same.

8.5/17.4 from 2point, 5.9/6.9 from ft line with 85 percent. he averages an estimated 23 points per game with 48.8 efficiency.

Derrick Rose 3 point shooting only adds 2 extra points.

Case closed, shooting the 3 ball at the volume he does doesn't add any efficiency to his game.

You have a massive hole in your math in the form of normalization of shot attempts for 2's and 3's. On top of that, you are including layups into your analysis of jump shots. I'm not really sure how else I can possibly explain TS% to you at this point. You are literally trying to derive TS% with your method except that you are completely ignoring the normalization of shot attempts to point value of the shot. Until you realize this, there really isn't much else to discuss here.

[CablexDeadpool]

Rose is easily the worst 3-point shooting player in the NBA. He should either work on the shot or take it out for good.

The thing is, he just becoming a rim or 3 guy.

either he getting to the paint or he's shooting the 3.


that's no good.


he's 6'3 he should use the post more than the 3 point arc.

if he took 3 three's a game, he would be fine.

[CablexDeadpool]

no it's not because he wasn't making any in the first place. He only got 1.5 per game. that's only 4.5 points.

He was making 3 midrange shots and had 6 points a game with the midrange.

Only reason it is considered efficient, is because you are making 1 more point with one shot.

so it takes derrick rose 5 shots to make 4.5, or it takes him 7 shots to make 6 points...you think about it.

you want him to keep bricking 3.5 shots just to get 4.5 points or he gets 6 points while missing 4 shots

he's not efficient shooting the 3.

and rose was 48 percent efficient on 2s MVP year. and 33 percent on 3s. 8.4/16.7 from 2

rose was 50 percent efficient on 2s 2010 year and 26 percent on 3s. 7.2/14.9 from 2

so lets take his fts from mvp year and add them to his 2010 year.

he makes an estimated 26 points while making 8.4/16.7 from 2s and shooting 5.9/6.9 and 85 percent from the ft line and while making .2/.8 from 3 with 26 efficiency.

so lets say rose abandons the 3 game in his mvp season, no 3s. we also take away his dismal midrange shooting and add the good midrange shooting he didn the previous year. So I only changed the 16 - 23 shooting, everything else is the same.

8.5/17.4 from 2point, 5.9/6.9 from ft line with 85 percent. he averages an estimated 23 points per game with 48.8 efficiency.

Derrick Rose 3 point shooting only adds 2 extra points.

Case closed, shooting the 3 ball at the volume he does doesn't add any efficiency to his game.

You have a massive hole in your math in the form of normalization of shot attempts for 2's and 3's. On top of that, you are including layups into your analysis of jump shots. I'm not really sure how else I can possibly explain TS% to you at this point. You are literally trying to derive TS% with your method except that you are completely ignoring the normalization of shot attempts to point value of the shot. Until you realize this, there really isn't much else to discuss here.

no I did not.

i used hoopdata

i subtracted the 3s out. and used strictly 2 point data.

and for the mvp season, i subtracted out his dismal midrange shooting and inserted his shooting from 16 to 23 from the 2010 season.

it was a simple thing, when it is all said and done, he gets 23 points a game if he doesn't shoots 3s and converted 6 fts he did MVP season.


It has nothing to do with TS percentage.

And I already proven TS is flawed when you wanna compare how well a player shoots from the field, you use eFG. TS puts in Free Throws. Derrick Rose got the line more, he gonna have a higher TS than last year period.

Dwade and Rose had the same TS last year, and Derrick Rose was the better 3 point shooter and the better FT percentage.

Stop using TS for Drose it doesn't apply.

TS percentage is for a player like Chauncey Billups, who gets to the line and shoots mainly 3 pointers and has a dismal FG percentage.

[Sebastian]

As alucryts said, there is a massive hole in your math, so it's hard to continue trying to argue this.

Stop using TS for Drose it doesn't apply.

Someone really ought to sig this.