2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt II

[Klomp]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Twolves_PR/status/418801120530538497[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Twolves_PR/status/418801636341850113[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Twolves_PR/status/418801880148369408[/tweet]

[therealbig3]

Here's how they stack up statistically so far:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nute::none

On a per 36 basis (to adjust for the small difference in minutes):

LeBron: 25.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, 3.4 TOpg, 67.4% TS, 123 ORating

Durant: 27.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 TOpg, 62.8% TS, 121 ORating

Extremely close, but not only is LeBron's TS% higher, his ORating is as well, which imo shows that his offensive production has been superior to KD's. Now, I haven't watched either of them on defense as closely as I've liked this season, so I can't really make a decision based on who has been the better defender. I know that LeBron likes to coast, and I know that Durant has had some seriously impressive defensive performances this year, so Durant might very well have played superior defense so far this season.

I feel like this is going to be one of the closest MVP races we've seen in a long time.

[rcontador]

LeBron: 25.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, 3.4 TOpg, 67.4% TS, 123 ORating

Durant: 27.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 TOpg, 62.8% TS, 121 ORating

Lebron: 103 drtg, .290 WS/48

Durant: 98 drtg, .302 WS/48

But honestly I think individual stats are beside the point, kind of. The Miami Heat is a 5.7 SRS team. The OKC Thunder is a 9.1 SRS team. And Lebron's supporting cast through the season has been at least as good as Durant's.

For me this is very open and shut. Durant is doing far more with less help. He is the MVP so far and it is not close.

If, like last season, Lebron gets better and Durant gets worse after the all-star break, then we can reevaluate -- and honestly I think Lebron will probably be the stronger candidate of the two by season's end.

But right now I just don't see the argument for Lebron, at all. He can get his FG% all the way to 100 for all I care, as long as his team is doing worse than Durant's he is not the Most Valuable Player.

[bondom34]

Here's how they stack up statistically so far:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nute::none

On a per 36 basis (to adjust for the small difference in minutes):

LeBron: 25.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, 3.4 TOpg, 67.4% TS, 123 ORating

Durant: 27.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 TOpg, 62.8% TS, 121 ORating

Extremely close, but not only is LeBron's TS% higher, his ORating is as well, which imo shows that his offensive production has been superior to KD's. Now, I haven't watched either of them on defense as closely as I've liked this season, so I can't really make a decision based on who has been the better defender. I know that LeBron likes to coast, and I know that Durant has had some seriously impressive defensive performances this year, so Durant might very well have played superior defense so far this season.

I feel like this is going to be one of the closest MVP races we've seen in a long time.

True, its really close, but why per 36 when you're not really comparing players with vastly different minutes? Generally if guys are playing a lot, per game is fine, and you're also omitting anything w/ Durant having an advantage. For example, Durant leads Lebron in WS, Defensive WS, WS/48, Blocks, D Rating, and Steals.
I would agree though, its close, but I'd put Durant in a slight lead at the moment.

[Doctor MJ]

Love tweets

Yeah, so I'll go out on the limb with you. There's very little keeping me from outright proclaiming that Love is a serious MVP candidate for me.

Here we are two months into the season, and Love's on court data still looks on par with LeBron's while continuing to put up his own form of outlier box score stats. That's insane given the difference in team record, and it's not logical to use the team record simply as a reason to anoint LeBron, given that it's far more difficult to do this with weaker teammates.

There remains no serious question to me as to whether LeBron is the most capable player in the league, but that's not what MVP is.

We're two months into the year, and while that doesn't mean there's no luck in the data, it does mean we need to start seriously considering what it will mean if the data continues as it is the rest of the way.

If it does, well not only does Durant have a good case over LeBron for me, and not only does Paul George, but Love has one as well. Love has no shot at actually winning the thing, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't.

[bondom34]

^^^
As for Love, and his case, a part of me wants to see what that team would do if he were out for a few weeks, just to see the true impact.

[Doctor MJ]

^^^
As for Love, and his case, a part of me wants to see what that team would do if he were out for a few weeks, just to see the true impact.

This is always good to see, and when you see an on/off differential as huge as Love's, it's safe to assume it wouldn't be quite so dramatic with more sample size.

But that's why a guy isn't an MVP candidate simply because his off-court numbers are way low. The thing about Love is that his ON-court numbers are extremely high. I'm not aware of any site that has this currently tallied for the current season, but Love is certainly among the league leaders in raw +/-. For a player to do that on a team still trying to get cleanly above .500 is crazy.

[Klomp]

^^^
As for Love, and his case, a part of me wants to see what that team would do if he were out for a few weeks, just to see the true impact.

Well, the team is 0-1 without him, losing 103-82

(yes I know, bigger sample size needed)

[bondom34]

^^^
As for Love, and his case, a part of me wants to see what that team would do if he were out for a few weeks, just to see the true impact.

Well, the team is 0-1 without him, losing 103-82

(yes I know, bigger sample size needed)

I know, more sample size, but TBH, I think it would be a lot of the same. Noone else is a real scoring threat besides K Mart, who can't defend. You'd have a passing PG that can't score, one perimeter gunner that can't defend, a solid but not overwhelming big man in Pek, and no bench.

[xStanton27]

LeBron: 25.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, 3.4 TOpg, 67.4% TS, 123 ORating

Durant: 27.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 TOpg, 62.8% TS, 121 ORating

But right now I just don't see the argument for Lebron, at all. He can get his FG% all the way to 100 for all I care, as long as his team is doing worse than Durant's he is not the Most Valuable Player.

Lol it's nonsense like this that makes me enjoy Realgm.

[rcontador]

LeBron: 25.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, 3.4 TOpg, 67.4% TS, 123 ORating

Durant: 27.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 TOpg, 62.8% TS, 121 ORating

But right now I just don't see the argument for Lebron, at all. He can get his FG% all the way to 100 for all I care, as long as his team is doing worse than Durant's he is not the Most Valuable Player.

Lol it's nonsense like this that makes me enjoy Realgm.

Surely you agree that high FG% is only desirable if it makes a player's team better?

[xStanton27]

But right now I just don't see the argument for Lebron, at all. He can get his FG% all the way to 100 for all I care, as long as his team is doing worse than Durant's he is not the Most Valuable Player.

Lol it's nonsense like this that makes me enjoy Realgm.

Surely you agree that high FG% is only desirable if it makes a player's team better?

Please give me a plausible scenario where shooting a worse fg% is more desirable. Of course, you can argue increases or decreases in volume, but fg%? Cmon man... the statement I highlighted in bold is just absurd. First off, the fg% Lebron is currently putting up is extremely remarkable and will be remembered in the statistical pages of nba history.

To say that you don't care about how high that percentage is or can become, is ridiculous. It is a key determinant in efficiency. As I said, surely you must agree that there is no argument in support of decreasing efficiency.

[rcontador]

I don't think you understood my argument, so I'll make it again.

So far this season, the Thunder have been a much stronger team than the Heat.

And yet the supporting cast around Durant has been significantly weaker than the cast around Lebron. (~12 games of awful Westbrook, ~12 games of good Westbrook, 5 games of no Westbrook, + Thunder roleplayers, vs healthy Wade + Bosh + Heat roleplayers.)

Therefore, Durant has added more to his team this season than Lebron has.

End of argument.

When I said it wouldn't matter if Lebron's FG% got to 100, what I meant was, if the Heat were still weaker than the Thunder then Lebron still wouldn't be MVP even if his FG% were 100. His impact would still necessarily be less than Durant's. I was being hyperbolic to make this point: box score stats don't matter if we can directly see that one player is having less impact than another player.

[xStanton27]

Still think the argument is weak.

Westbrook has missed 5 games, Wade has missed 8 and a half, 4 of which were losses. You can't tell me stuff about "awful" games either, as both Bosh and Wade have had some bad games. and the Heat are only behind 1 game to the Thunder.

[Rasho_libre]

What a stupid game by both MVP candidates. Kd could have built a decent lead tonight but decided to lay an egg in the fourth.

[kingkirk]

What is the point about arguing about supporting casts between OKC & Miami?

Both Durant and Lebron have great teams and systems in place. Arguing which one is worse to prop up your desired MVP is nonsense.

Guess what, if Lebron or Durant lose valuable teammates for extended periods, their teams will be worse off. That doesn't make either more or less valuable.

Both teams will be 1st or 2nd in their respective conference. It will come down to the numbers between these two.

[Keller61]

I think you have to put Curry in the mix after tonight's game. The Warriors are on a roll and he has MVP-worthy numbers.

[PaulieWal]

I think you have to put Curry in the mix after tonight's game. The Warriors are on a roll and he has MVP-worthy numbers.

Curry is playing superbly but unless GSW finishes with a top 4 seed I don't think he is going to be given any real MVP consideration. Sure, the way he is playing right now he deserves "MVP recognition". The Warriors are right now tied 6th seed with the same number of losses as 5th seed Houston. There is a chance if GSW keeps this play up they can finish with a top 3-4 record with Westbrook out. I still feel ultimately it is between LeBron and KD. All the others will have their name thrown up or discussed but the first place votes are only going to these two.

[DHodgkins]

I think you have to put Curry in the mix after tonight's game. The Warriors are on a roll and he has MVP-worthy numbers.

Agreed. The Warriors will continue to move up the standings with everyone healthy.

Also, no one in the history of the league has put up his numbers.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=22.9&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=9.5&c3stat=trb_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=4.7&c4stat=stl_per_g&c4comp=gt&c4val=1.8&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

[Woodsanity]

I think you have to put Curry in the mix after tonight's game. The Warriors are on a roll and he has MVP-worthy numbers.

Agreed. The Warriors will continue to move up the standings with everyone healthy.

Also, no one in the history of the league has put up his numbers.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=22.9&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=9.5&c3stat=trb_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=4.7&c4stat=stl_per_g&c4comp=gt&c4val=1.8&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

Such arbitrary stats.
Chris Paul was .1 ppg off with his 22.8/11/5.5/2.8 season.