Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Hornets

[SmoothKobra]

I think you guys should give up on these before it gets out of hand. Jazz is offering some decent insight but the projections flat out suck and are somewhat offensive to fans of those teams. Either fix your methodology and come up with projections that are going to be more accurate or just give up. Hell I think most posters on here can do better without using any fancy analytical tools.

All those that are claiming its possible if Jefferson is injured are kind of silly. Projections are based on optimal conditions accounting for all players being healthy. You can say any team will be terrible if their best player gets hurt, but you can't just project they'll be terrible because there's a chance he gets hurt. Sounds asinine.

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I enjoy the predictions, and I think it's bold to make prediction that not everyone is going to stand behind. Obviously, there are surprise teams that rise and fall every year. Most didn't have the Knicks out of the playoffs last year, and most didn't have Portland or Phoenix playing so well. You will never please everybody with predictions like these, and I'm glad they are making bold predictions instead of the cookie-cutter "they'll be about the same as last season" picks.

[naabzor]

They went 43 - 39 last year. Now they have a better player in Stephenson and they gonna regress? I don't think so, i still think they are a .500 team or slightly better.

[jowglenn]

They're my dark horse Eastern Conference champion possibility. I think they have a very good chance of being the #2 team in the East, shocking the world as the Bulls take longer to gel and Rose never returns to his former self. Wizards slightly regress after losing Ariza and Gortat got paid. Raptors still very young and have some holes.

Al Jefferson = BEAST
Lance = will play with FIRE
Kemba = will benefit greatly from Lance taking over a lot of play making
MKG = will rise to DPOY level skills
Remainder = will see one or two surprises. Maybe Hairston is better than expected, maybe Marvin Williams finally has his late-career renaissance.

[LofJ]

I think Marvin Williams is on the best fitting roster for his abilities that he's ever been a part of. He was an awful fit between JSmith and Horford and he battled injuries while with the Jazz but played well for them when he was healthy. We're going to use him as a stretch 4 almost exclusively and I expect he is going to play well in that role. I have a lot of doubts about his ability to defend down low and help out on the weakside, but having MKG next to him will mitigate a lof of those problems. I expect we'll struggle to defend teams with two guys that can post up and pass like the Bulls, Grizzlies, Spurs, etc. but I like our chances defensively against teams that feature perimeter scorers or have only one guy that can score in the paint.

[suntzuballin]

when is your next 1 of these?

[floppymoose]

Not sure. Jazzfan had to take a break for a bit but I think he plans to continue these when he can.

[jazzfan1971]

Yeah, I just haven't had time lately. I'll post one up now.

[hands11]

This is my first post in one of these threads.

Let me start with this. I think you would get more participation simply by changing the title which projects something very centric to the two original posters vs being more inviting as a board member project. Sorry. I'm a sales and marketing VP. Hard to seperate the Wheat from the Chaff. Just trying to help though.

Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Hornets

vs

RealGM Members 2014 Hornets Season Preview Project
or
RealGM Members 2014 Hornets Season Preview Debate

Then make your first posts more about basic facts to help fuel the debate. You personal analysis would just be like anyone every other members post.

This would also allow new thread to get created more quickly because they would need to wait on either of your summaries. You can post them when you get a chance or not at all.

You can also add a poll for projected wins.

[hands11]

As for CHA. I'm leaning toward Floppy and a few other posts I have read here. A 2nd year PF with a rookie backing him up is not a recipe for playoffs. They do have decent depth at PG and SG but they smell of a team at least a year away with Zeller, Vonleh, MKG and Bismo

I have them as a Tier 3 team in my 6 Tiers. That puts them fighting for the last 1-2 slots against IND, ATL, DET, and long shot NY if lighten strikes and things come together quicker then some might expect under their new coach and GM. Hell, Boston might even be a team like that with Rondo returning healthy finally.

CHA is a MEH team. Not terrible nor good. Its going to take this year just to see how Zeller and Vonleh project. If Al Jeff can stay healthy, they might be a bigger threat the following year but more likely they are 2 years away.

I could see how they could regress and end up 37 or 38 wins and missing the playoffs.

This year, I think its going to take 41 or 42 wins to get the 8th seed.

[hands11]

This prediction is laughable, absolutely laughable.

Insightful breakdown.

[Boarder Patrol]

This prediction is laughable, absolutely laughable.

Insightful breakdown.

A prediction like this doesn't warrant one.

[hands11]

I think you guys should give up on these before it gets out of hand. Jazz is offering some decent insight but the projections flat out suck and are somewhat offensive to fans of those teams. Either fix your methodology and come up with projections that are going to be more accurate or just give up. Hell I think most posters on here can do better without using any fancy analytical tools.

All those that are claiming its possible if Jefferson is injured are kind of silly. Projections are based on optimal conditions accounting for all players being healthy. You can say any team will be terrible if their best player gets hurt, but you can't just project they'll be terrible because there's a chance he gets hurt. Sounds asinine.

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It depends on the kinds of injuries a player has and the medical staff and training programs.

Some injuries happen, heal and they are over with.

Some players are injury prone in the feet, ankles, back, ham strings, etc. Stuff you can count on like clock work. Look at Webster. 3 back surgeries. Look at Okafor. The way you project players like that is something like..80 games last year and two years since the last surgery... they are due for another injury. Their problems are chronic. Thats also how you can pick them up cheap after they miss most of a season and get good value for them for a year, maybe two.

So no. You should actually predict injuries. And in doing so, I would also factor in playing style. i.e. Bledsoe. His style is not conducive to staying healthy.

[littlerock2277]

I believe the jazz fans made charlotte surprising low on the rankings due to Charlotte's management overpaying for Hayward and forcing the jazz to match that massive contract which would leave a lot of jazz fans very frustrated on how that situation played out. Its the Only reason i could think of for putting Charlotte so low their definitely better than a lot teams you guys have yet to even mention in your power rankings.

[NashtyNas]

I think you guys should give up on these before it gets out of hand. Jazz is offering some decent insight but the projections flat out suck and are somewhat offensive to fans of those teams. Either fix your methodology and come up with projections that are going to be more accurate or just give up. Hell I think most posters on here can do better without using any fancy analytical tools.

All those that are claiming its possible if Jefferson is injured are kind of silly. Projections are based on optimal conditions accounting for all players being healthy. You can say any team will be terrible if their best player gets hurt, but you can't just project they'll be terrible because there's a chance he gets hurt. Sounds asinine.

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It depends on the kinds of injuries a player has and the medical staff and training programs.

Some injuries happen, heal and they are over with.

Some players are injury prone in the feet, ankles, back, ham strings, etc. Stuff you can count on like clock work. Look at Webster. 3 back surgeries. Look at Okafor. The way you project players like that is something like..80 games last year and two years since the last surgery... they are due for another injury. Their problems are chronic. Thats also how you can pick them up cheap after they miss most of a season and get good value for them for a year, maybe two.

So no. You should actually predict injuries. And in doing so, I would also factor in playing style. i.e. Bledsoe. His style is not conducive to staying healthy.

Alright, if you're so certain, why don't you put your money where your mouth is?
Go bet a few grand on the Hornets to be as bad as has been projected here considering you think Jefferson is injury prone and what not. Let's see how that one works out for you.

I'll gladly put at least $1000 on Hornets winning more games than these guys projected.

[hands11]

I think you guys should give up on these before it gets out of hand. Jazz is offering some decent insight but the projections flat out suck and are somewhat offensive to fans of those teams. Either fix your methodology and come up with projections that are going to be more accurate or just give up. Hell I think most posters on here can do better without using any fancy analytical tools.

All those that are claiming its possible if Jefferson is injured are kind of silly. Projections are based on optimal conditions accounting for all players being healthy. You can say any team will be terrible if their best player gets hurt, but you can't just project they'll be terrible because there's a chance he gets hurt. Sounds asinine.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

It depends on the kinds of injuries a player has and the medical staff and training programs.

Some injuries happen, heal and they are over with.

Some players are injury prone in the feet, ankles, back, ham strings, etc. Stuff you can count on like clock work. Look at Webster. 3 back surgeries. Look at Okafor. The way you project players like that is something like..80 games last year and two years since the last surgery... they are due for another injury. Their problems are chronic. Thats also how you can pick them up cheap after they miss most of a season and get good value for them for a year, maybe two.

So no. You should actually predict injuries. And in doing so, I would also factor in playing style. i.e. Bledsoe. His style is not conducive to staying healthy.

Alright, if you're so certain, why don't you put your money where your mouth is?
Go bet a few grand on the Hornets to be as bad as has been projected here considering you think Jefferson is injury prone and what not. Let's see how that one works out for you.

I'll gladly put at least $1000 on Hornets winning more games than these guys projected.

Try reading and not freaking out this time.

I never even mentioned Jefferson. I was addressing the topic in general of factoring in injuries and used two Wizards players as examples.

Two, I never said I agreed with their record projection. I said they could be battling for the last two playoff spots. If I had to guess right now, I put them in the 37-41 win range.

[Hero]

Projected Record - 29/53 (I'm guessing 45/37 - Jazz)

Might want to reconsider this.

[Liver_Pooty]

It depends on the kinds of injuries a player has and the medical staff and training programs.

Some injuries happen, heal and they are over with.

Some players are injury prone in the feet, ankles, back, ham strings, etc. Stuff you can count on like clock work. Look at Webster. 3 back surgeries. Look at Okafor. The way you project players like that is something like..80 games last year and two years since the last surgery... they are due for another injury. Their problems are chronic. Thats also how you can pick them up cheap after they miss most of a season and get good value for them for a year, maybe two.

So no. You should actually predict injuries. And in doing so, I would also factor in playing style. i.e. Bledsoe. His style is not conducive to staying healthy.

Alright, if you're so certain, why don't you put your money where your mouth is?
Go bet a few grand on the Hornets to be as bad as has been projected here considering you think Jefferson is injury prone and what not. Let's see how that one works out for you.

I'll gladly put at least $1000 on Hornets winning more games than these guys projected.

Try reading and not freaking out this time.

I never even mentioned Jefferson. I was addressing the topic in general of factoring in injuries and used two Wizards players as examples.

Two, I never said I agreed with their record projection. I said they could be battling for the last two playoff spots. If I had to guess right now, I put them in the 37-41 win range.

37-41 wins would be a very, very disappointing year.

[StitchJones]

This prediction is WAY off base. I'll just give some facts.

20-9 after the allstar break. One of the better records in the league.
Wins over Washington x3 during that stretch along with Indiana, Portland, and Chicago.
Key players in Kemba, Stevenson, MKG, Zeller all 24 or younger and expected to improve
A healthy Al Jefferson to start the season (He was not healthy for the Bobcats last year until December)
Another year in Clifford's system


I could say more, but this is enough. Barring injury this will be one of those threads someone brings back to life in December to show you just how wrong you were.

[BeesWax]

This was a very bad run down. Some people question starting Zeller at PF. Well if we were doing that then you would have a question. We are starting Williams there not Zeller. Williams is not the playmaker McRoberts was but is a better defender and just as good a shooter to spread the floor around Al. The question of the bench has been taken care of by adding Roberts, Henderson and Neal to go with Zeller and Biz. Add to it any contributions by the rookies and our bench is completely changed. People love to down Charlotte but this team will fight with Washington for the top of the division and will easily make the playoffs.

The fact that floppymoose claims his methods are statistical and hedges his bet with "outliers" comment is insane. I wonder if this means he flips a coin 82 times and goes with heads wins and tails loses like a beginner stats course. You would think someone who claims to analyze fails to even look at projected rosters and changes.

[Eoghan]

Floppymusings:
This will be controversial... the Hornets are not going to win many games. There isn't one simple reason. It's a lot of reasons glued together. First, they overachieved last season (by 3 wins - expected pythagorean W/L was 40-42).

I agree with this. The injury bug was overall kind to them and the East was absolutely pitiful.

Next, several teams in the east are improved (CLE, CHI, WAS, ATL) and the teams that got worse are mostly still better than the Hornets (MIA, IND, BKN). Finally, if the wheels do come off as I think they will, the Hornets won't have a lot of incentive to try to win games late in the season.

I don't think Washington and Atlanta are clearly more improved than Charlotte and I definitely don't think MIA, IND, and BKN are better than Charlotte (BKN could maybe put it together if Lopez finds a fountain of health).

29 wins is quite a bit low but as a Hornets fan I wouldn't be surprised with the general theme of Charlotte having a worse than expected season this year. I think that something that hurts your preview is that coach Clifford greatly spackles over the lack of shooting and depth problem by manipulating pace and defensive schemes. On paper Charlotte doesn't look very good in a lot of areas but Clifford really does a bang-up job of maximizing strengths (Big Al's low-post scoring) and minimizing weaknesses (Big Al's P&R defense).

I think what will determine whether Charlotte has the year most of these posters predict (decidedly in the playoffs) vs the FloppyMoose major regression prediction is up to Clifford and his ability to improve upon his in-game adaptability and flesh out the playbook better than the "basketball for dummies" schemes he ran last year. If he's as rigid and predictable as he was last year he could get exposed. He seems like a clever boy though, I wouldn't bet on it.