Bhut Jolokia wrote:Edrees wrote:Bhut Jolokia wrote:
If # of games played during the season matters so much, then why is Kawhi #1? I voted for Kawhi by the way, so I don’t have a problem with missing 20-30 games (or even the whole season).
It's one thing to miss a few games, but not to play a single game is a different thing entirely. And Kawhi only missed 22 games last year coming off an entire season off, so 22 should be the highest amount of games one might expect him to miss this year. If you're to take an optimistic health estimate for Kawhi the way we're doing with Durant, you might assume he plays 75 games. I'd say the chances Durant recovers in less than 9-10 months (no setbacks, perfect recovery) are about the chances Kawhi plays 75-80 games.
I honestly, don’t think it will look that bad when we look back on Durant making this list. That is the case as long as he plays at a very high level when he returns. There is some risk to that, so I can see why you wouldn’t want to vote for Durant. I personally think he will play at a top 10 level when he returns. Looking back at last years list, we can see that the lists are going to be totally off anyways so one player isn’t going to make that big of a difference, especially a player as good as Durant.
Here’s how some players played last season, basically fully healthy:
Paul George: 7.63 RPM, 23.3 PER
Nikola Jokic: 6.48 RPM, 26.3 PER
Joel Embiid: 6.40 RPM, 26.1 PER
Anthony Davis: 5.74 RPM, 30.3 PER
Kevin Durant: 4.96 RPM, 24.2 PER
Given that Durant had the weakest numbers and was also by far the oldest, you could make a strong argument that he should be behind all of those players
even if fully healthy. I would have had Davis clearly ahead of him and then the other 3 players roughly on the same tier. With no injury I would have ranked Durant somewhere in the 5-10 range.
However, Durant is not fully healthy. Instead he suffered one of the most devastating injuries a player can possibly suffer. Typically a player will miss 9-12 months, then play at a
much lower level for the following 9-12 months, then when they finally get back to their “new peak level”, it will still be far below where they were previously. Most recently, Demarcus Cousins was in the running for best center prior to his Achilles injury. He had more time to get healthy than KD, but without any more information on how he would recover, he was given a 1 year $5MM deal, valuing him as no longer a top 100 player in the league. It was no guarantee he’d get better either as after actually watching him for a year, he was rated even lower for the following season, signing a 1 year $3MM deal in a market where decent starters were making $15MM/year.
I’d say it’s very unrealistic to expect him to play at a top 10 level in the 2020/2021 season. In the 2019/2020 season, it’s downright nonsensical. Only one player in the entire history of the NBA has ever returned at close to their previous level, and even if that were to happen, KD would still miss pretty much the entire regular season and have at least a little bit of rust when he gets back. If I were to break down the possibilities, I’d put them something like this:
40%: Misses most of season, comes back at a much lower level when he does return, maybe somewhere in the 30-60 range for the remainder of the season, giving him a borderline Top 100 impact for the season.
40%: Misses entire season, does not play whatsoever
10%: Misses most of season, plays at a higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10-30 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline Top 40 impact for the season.
8%: Misses most of season, plays at a lower than expected level when he returns. Is a borderline top-100 player when he returns, giving him a borderline top-200 impact for the season.
2%: Misses most of the season, plays at a much, much higher than expected level when he returns. Is a Top 10 player for the rest of the season giving him a borderline top 20 impact for the season.
Given all these factors, I think it’s fair to rank him somewhere in the 50-60 range for 2019/20 I think this is a much more reasonable and fair estimate than your guess that one of the most devastating injuries in the NBA will not affect him at all once he returns and that he’ll be even better than he was prior to injury.
