RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#8 2019-20

[iggymcfrack]

Gasol is still a much better defender than LMA (a powerforward) lmao.

also:

Joel Embiid - Gastroenteritis
Nikola Jokic - Healthy

and also, Embiid's overall impact is still greater due to being a DPOY caliber talent. His on/off splits vs. Toronto were otherworldly.

Actually no. Jokic's advanced stats literally dwarf Embiid's
BPM: 11.8 - 4.6
VORP: 1.9 - 0.6
WS: .263 - .149
TS%: .596 - .559

Their regular season advanced stats are in Jokic's favor too. I mean, there's a reason he had a ton more votes for MVP and was comfortably all nba first team.
BPM: 9.5 - 4.1
VORP: 7.3 - 3.3
WS: .226 - .194
TS%: .589 - .593

You’re using the wrong advanced stats hombre. Embiid dwarfs Jokic in RAPM for example, and impact metrics > box score metrics. His effect on team success was much greater than Jokic in terms of on/off. BPM/VORP are per possession and per minute iterations of the same stat- a lesser stat.

I also agree with stormi that it can’t be understated how much playing in a seamless system can affect some of these stats. Embiid was trying to make it work with other high volume/high usage players who forced him to the perimeter, whereas Denver’s roster and game plan both revolved around Jokic.

Jokic finished higher than Embiid in RPM every year since they entered the league and he’s also played nearly twice as many games. Impact stats clearly favor Jokic.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Actually no. Jokic's advanced stats literally dwarf Embiid's
BPM: 11.8 - 4.6
VORP: 1.9 - 0.6
WS: .263 - .149
TS%: .596 - .559

Their regular season advanced stats are in Jokic's favor too. I mean, there's a reason he had a ton more votes for MVP and was comfortably all nba first team.
BPM: 9.5 - 4.1
VORP: 7.3 - 3.3
WS: .226 - .194
TS%: .589 - .593

You’re using the wrong advanced stats hombre. Embiid dwarfs Jokic in RAPM for example, and impact metrics > box score metrics. His effect on team success was much greater than Jokic in terms of on/off. BPM/VORP are per possession and per minute iterations of the same stat- a lesser stat.

I also agree with stormi that it can’t be understated how much playing in a seamless system can affect some of these stats. Embiid was trying to make it work with other high volume/high usage players who forced him to the perimeter, whereas Denver’s roster and game plan both revolved around Jokic.

Jokic finished higher than Embiid in RPM every year since they entered the league and he’s also played nearly twice as many games. Impact stats clearly favor Jokic.

6.48 vs 6.40 RPM Watch what happens if/when Jokic has to coexist with other high usage players. Embiid is simply the better player and that will become more clear next season.

[GeorgeMarcus]

.

Embiid:
2019 RS RAPM - 3.81 (#8)
2019 PS RAPM - 3.58 (#1)
2018 RS RAPM - 5.13 (#4)
2018 PS RAPM - 1.13 (#17)

Jokic:
2019 RS RAPM - 2.39 #43)
2019 PS RAPM - 1.44 (#17)
2018 RS RAPM - 3.79 (#12)
2018 PS RAPM - X

See the pattern? RAPM is the god of impact metrics

[Patches Perry]

Vote Paul George
Nominate Kemba Walker

[iggymcfrack]

.

Embiid:
2019 RS RAPM - 3.81 (#8)
2019 PS RAPM - 3.58 (#1)
2018 RS RAPM - 5.13 (#4)
2018 PS RAPM - 1.13 (#17)

Jokic:
2019 RS RAPM - 2.39 #43)
2019 PS RAPM - 1.44 (#17)
2018 RS RAPM - 3.79 (#12)
2018 PS RAPM - X

See the pattern? RAPM is the god of impact metrics

I haven’t found a current RAPM I like. Separating the regular season and postseason is dumb because it reduces the sample too much and the gitlab dataset (if that’s where you got those) has certain players that are clearly just mistakes (i.e. extremely high on/off players ranking down near the bottom for no reason). I’d trust RPM much more for anything recent.

[GeorgeMarcus]

.

Embiid:
2019 RS RAPM - 3.81 (#8)
2019 PS RAPM - 3.58 (#1)
2018 RS RAPM - 5.13 (#4)
2018 PS RAPM - 1.13 (#17)

Jokic:
2019 RS RAPM - 2.39 #43)
2019 PS RAPM - 1.44 (#17)
2018 RS RAPM - 3.79 (#12)
2018 PS RAPM - X

See the pattern? RAPM is the god of impact metrics

I haven’t found a current RAPM I like. Separating the regular season and postseason is dumb because it reduces the sample too much and the gitlab dataset (if that’s where you got those) has certain players that are clearly just mistakes (i.e. extremely high on/off players ranking down near the bottom for no reason). I’d trust RPM much more for anything recent.

In this case Embiid > Jokic in every dataset so the playoff samples won't have much of an effect. If you want to talk on/off, that's another area where Embiid beats Jokic soundly in every dataset:

Embiid:
2019 RS on/off: +10.0
2019 PS on/off: +41.3
2018 RS on/off: +12.7
2018 PS on/off: +6.3

Jokic:
2019 RS on/off: +2.9
2019 PS on/off: +23.2
2018 RS on/off: +10.2
2018 PS on/off: X

[Sgt Major]

Embiid is simply the better player and that will become more clear next season.

[iggymcfrack]

Embiid:
2019 RS RAPM - 3.81 (#8)
2019 PS RAPM - 3.58 (#1)
2018 RS RAPM - 5.13 (#4)
2018 PS RAPM - 1.13 (#17)

Jokic:
2019 RS RAPM - 2.39 #43)
2019 PS RAPM - 1.44 (#17)
2018 RS RAPM - 3.79 (#12)
2018 PS RAPM - X

See the pattern? RAPM is the god of impact metrics

I haven’t found a current RAPM I like. Separating the regular season and postseason is dumb because it reduces the sample too much and the gitlab dataset (if that’s where you got those) has certain players that are clearly just mistakes (i.e. extremely high on/off players ranking down near the bottom for no reason). I’d trust RPM much more for anything recent.

In this case Embiid > Jokic in every dataset so the playoff samples won't have much of an effect. If you want to talk on/off, that's another area where Embiid beats Jokic soundly in every dataset:

Embiid:
2019 RS on/off: +10.0
2019 PS on/off: +41.3
2018 RS on/off: +12.7
2018 PS on/off: +6.3

Jokic:
2019 RS on/off: +2.9
2019 PS on/off: +23.2
2018 RS on/off: +10.2
2018 PS on/off: X

I know what else I don’t like about that RAPM set. It’s not prior informed. You need some kind of priors be they box score or previous season or else you get too many wacky results like Danny Green #2 overall, Derrick White #6, and Danuel House #15 ahead of Giannis. There’s just not enough of a sample in a single season’s dataset of on/off to come up with a real ranking, especially when you don’t even combine RS and PS.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Embiid is simply the better player and that will become more clear next season.

It is what it is

[Sharkboy242]

Lol at jokic over embiid, alot of dumb ppl out there

Jokic in PO: 25/13/8.5
Embiid in PO: 20/10.5/3.5

That's really all that needs to be said. Better look next year Embiid but this year Jokic>>>

[GeorgeMarcus]

Lol at jokic over embiid, alot of dumb ppl out there

Jokic in PO: 25/13/8.5
Embiid in PO: 20/10.5/3.5

That's really all that needs to be said. Better look next year Embiid but this year Jokic>>>

Embiid averaged more points, rebounds, blocks and steals per minute, but Jokic averaged almost 10mpg more with that 63 min 4OT game. Either way that's not really a smart way to compare impact. Jokic wouldn't score as much if he was competing with Simmons, Butler and Tobias for touches.

[Hroz]

Nomimate

All NBA Blake Griffin

[Harry Garris]

If the top 25 players is our prediction for how these guys will do this coming season then why not just remove KD from the list?

[mtron929]

I kind of feel like Kevin Durant should be either top 5 or outside of the ranking altogether. Anything in-between seems to the most disrespectable position for him.

[Tim Kempton]

Vote: Lillard

Nominate: Kemba

[FinnTheHuman]

Jokic is better mostly because my eye test says so. Embiid can’t carry the offense in the 4th, he’s already gassed at that stage, isn’t creative and just looks awkward out there, we all saw that, Jimmy Butler had to take over, while Jokic carries the offense throughout the whole game. Embiid’s superior defense isn’t enough to bring it back to even, which will become obvious when Philly starts struggling in the 4th in the PO next season without Jimmy.

[rzzzzz]

Embiid can’t carry the offense in the 4th, he’s already gassed at that stage

well, for better or worse, Elton is gambling that Horford picking up a chunk of the load will make a difference. Brett needs to scheme Biid much closer to the rim to take advantage of his length and strength. Biid says he'll work harder on conditioning this off season, and he already looks a lot more chiseled. (for all his bluster, he tends to stay true to his word.)

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

Gasol is still a much better defender than LMA (a powerforward) lmao.

also:

Joel Embiid - Gastroenteritis
Nikola Jokic - Healthy

and also, Embiid's overall impact is still greater due to being a DPOY caliber talent. His on/off splits vs. Toronto were otherworldly.

Actually no. Jokic's advanced stats literally dwarf Embiid's
BPM: 11.8 - 4.6
VORP: 1.9 - 0.6
WS: .263 - .149
TS%: .596 - .559

Their regular season advanced stats are in Jokic's favor too. I mean, there's a reason he had a ton more votes for MVP and was comfortably all nba first team.
BPM: 9.5 - 4.1
VORP: 7.3 - 3.3
WS: .226 - .194
TS%: .589 - .593

You’re using the wrong advanced stats hombre. Embiid dwarfs Jokic in RAPM for example, and impact metrics > box score metrics. His effect on team success was much greater than Jokic in terms of on/off. BPM/VORP are per possession and per minute iterations of the same stat- a lesser stat.

I also agree with stormi that it can’t be understated how much playing in a seamless system can affect some of these stats. Embiid was trying to make it work with other high volume/high usage players who forced him to the perimeter, whereas Denver’s roster and game plan both revolved around Jokic.

+/- isn't just an impact stat. That stat needs way more context than a lot of others. Denver doesn't have THAT much of a difference between their bench and starters. Jokic's best RAPM season was 2 years ago. So does that mean he was better then than now? No.
You won't find many Denver players ranking high for the '18/19 season.

Embiid's subs were Amir Johnson, Boban, Bolden or Muscala. You'll see how this season Embiid won't rank that high cause he'll finally have good support under the basket. Does that mean that Embiid's impact will be lower? No, it does not. He'll still have a superstar production and impact

[FinnTheHuman]

Embiid can’t carry the offense in the 4th, he’s already gassed at that stage

well, for better or worse, Elton is gambling that Horford picking up a chunk of the load will make a difference. Brett needs to scheme Biid much closer to the rim to take advantage of his length and strength. Biid says he'll work harder on conditioning this off season, and he already looks a lot more chiseled. (for all his bluster, he tends to stay true to his word.)

I don’t see how Horford takes away any more load off of Embiid than Butler did.

The reality is, Embiid will have to make a big leap conditioning-wise if he’s gonna start being the 1st option in the 4th and not just a bystander, and we can’t know if that’s gonna happen no matter how much he works on it. From the standpoint of what we know now and what is likely, it is insane to me that people are arguing that Embiid>Jokic. The only question is if Jokic>Embiid or Jokic>>Embiid right now.

[wade44]

Someone should start a top 25 all time poll!