A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet)

[FelixD]

Read on Twitter

I wonder who is the player who play the most with Porzingis...

[GreatWhiteStiff]

GeorgeMarcus, just to clear up any confusion again, is this thread about players who's impact doesn't match their reputation in general...or specificly the player (luka doncic) who's impact is so far away from his reputation it could be considered an outlier? Or is this thread about both of these things?

There is apparently only 1 player like that.

According to certain advanced stats, sure. I mean it's been argued derozan has somewhat negligible impact despite providing allstar level volume scoring, because of his liabilities and the fact his teams usually have better plus/minus when he's on the bench.

[scrabbarista]

Try this formula in every game instead of on off.

OffRtg - Drtg = x (not net rating)

This formula penalizes you for turnovers. Learned this from AirP. Been mindblowingly awesome to watch games and then the next day on bbref, watch that calculation agree with my eye test.

Yeah, at one point I was doing a single-season peak formula and went through tons of examples of this little equation. Since then it's one I often glance at on bbref. The GOATs are like +20-25, and the serious contributors are usually around +10-12, if I'm not mistaken.

Here are four random selections:

2016 Curry = +22
2020 Gordon Hayward = +16
2020 Doncic = +11
2019 Doncic = -2

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

I don't think +/- as a stat should be used t evaluate individual players/player comparison. It should be used by teams to evaluate and analyse which lineups work and which don't. It shows the cohesiveness of units and what they specialize in. Of-course, you can use it in conjunction with other stats and perform a detailed analysis to gauge the player better, but it's a poor stat to adjudge an individual.

[Wagonband]

It's amazing what can be read at this forum lately.

- Luka is actually bad because of his +/-, the coaches, opposing players and fans are just running a propaganda machine
- Steph was always overrated, and he is now delaying his return because obviously a broken hand is not a big deal since Hayward can come back sooner
- Draymond is the most overrated guy in history, every coach and media member that kept voting him all-nba and all-star was clearly part of a conspiracy
- Kawhii sucks because he is load managing himself, he was never that good in the first place, again propaganda.

On the other hand we have
- Pacers are title contenders
- The Bucks didn't beat anyone last year in the playoffs since Pistons/Celtics don't count
- LeBron sucks cause he is getting blocked more.

It seems the only important thing is to have a hot take that riles people up for debate. I'm actually starting to doubt people watch more than highlights and go further than ESPN titles to have what is supposed to be an informed opinion about basketball.

[MemphisX]

All the guys who love Luka BLINDLY know every advanced stat until it shows Luka in a bad light. Then it is his teammates fault. Luka is a very good player. Proabably the best player still on a rookie deal but people trying to annoint him into a top 10 player this early are jumping the gun. He has a ways to go.

[Bob8]

GeorgeMarcus, just to clear up any confusion again, is this thread about players who's impact doesn't match their reputation in general...or specificly the player (luka doncic) who's impact is so far away from his reputation it could be considered an outlier? Or is this thread about both of these things?

There is apparently only 1 player like that.

According to certain advanced stats, sure. I mean it's been argued derozan has somewhat negligible impact despite providing allstar level volume scoring, because of his liabilities and the fact his teams usually have better plus/minus when he's on the bench.

Take a look who’s in SI top 60 and then tell me that Luka has the worst impact on his team of them all.

Derozan’s average in his best seasons was around 23/5/4 with 55 TS%. Luka has 28/10/9 with 62 TS%. I can agree that Luka is very bad in D. worse than last year. But in offensive is elite, what will RPM and similar stats show without the doubt.

With +/- you can compare only different team lineups, and even there you have some problems, nothing else.

[Bob8]

All the guys who love Luka BLINDLY know every advanced stat until it shows Luka in a bad light. Then it is his teammates fault. Luka is a very good player. Proabably the best player still on a rookie deal but people trying to annoint him into a top 10 player this early are jumping the gun. He has a ways to go.

Which advanced stats? +/- doesn’t measure performance of single players.

Who says that he’s top10 player? He might be offensive top10 player, but his D. is really bad. It looks to me like RC somewhat encourages Luka not playing max. in D, because he sometimes really doesn’t try at all.

[User_friendly]

I have simple question. Do +/- and on/off numbers measure players impact?

I have another simple question. Let's say you replace him with a double Positive player, (like I bet Simmons is), or just take him out of the team to reduce Doncic's negative impact.
What would Mavs then be, contenders?.

[scrabbarista]

Regarding RPM: you know what that stat is designed to do? It's designed to approximate RAPM, so it can be used in smaller sample sizes. If we direct our attention to the number it's trying to emulate, Luka's RAPM last season was -0.3068. Even if we took RPM as scripture, Luka ranked 86th last season at +1.29. Significantly worse than any other player regarded as a star. I repeat: I'm not saying Luka is a negative impact player. I'm saying he doesn't provide star impact (yet).

Hey GeorgeMarcus, great OP and great thread.

I agree with you 100% about last season. As I stated in the first week of this season, I didn't/don't believe Doncic was a top 30 player last season.

The fatal flaw in your idea, in my opinion, is that you're putting last season's sample size of 2,318 minutes and this season's sample size of 348 minutes on apparently equal footing. Certainly, this season hasn't contradicted the idea that he's not yet a superstar, but I think you're jumping the gun.

This season, I think that over time you'll find he's made a huge leap. (I'm assuming you haven't watched more than one or two of his games this season?) The tweet posted about Porzingis' minutes and +/- is relevant, no? Assuming that KP and Doncic have been sharing the floor a lot? And given that this time with Porzingis is already weighing down this season, it may take a little longer for Doncic to dig out of this +/- hole.

For sure, many are overrating him this season as they did last season (Bill Simmons having him as a top 2 MVP candidate is laughable), but I think he's much closer to superstar impact than this single, small-sample-sized metric implies, and I think that by the All-Star break, even this metric will make that clear.

EDIT: I'm reminded of Westbrook being -46 against Miami and +40 against Golden State this season. Imagine if he'd rested one of those games. In short, it's just too early to use +/- for this season.

[Bob8]

I have simple question. Do +/- and on/off numbers measure players impact?

I have another simple question. Let's say you replace him with a double Positive player, (like I bet Simmons is), or just take him out of the team to reduce Doncic's negative impact.
What would Mavs then be, contenders?.

Yes, I would like to know too, how you replace 28/10/9 player, who has 62 TS%, and you’re better in the process? They will be better in D, but who will efficiently replace 28/10/9?

[scrabbarista]

All the guys who love Luka BLINDLY know every advanced stat until it shows Luka in a bad light. Then it is his teammates fault. Luka is a very good player. Proabably the best player still on a rookie deal but people trying to annoint him into a top 10 player this early are jumping the gun. He has a ways to go.

I think he could finish this season as a top ten player, but we're definitely jumping the gun to say he's already earned it. He has not. Ten games don't make you a superstar. And neither do raw numbers. And neither do highlights. So I'm right there with you.

But I think he could get there (top ten) in the next eight months. Which is pretty crazy for a kid who isn't yet old enough to drink in the US.

[Chandan]

[Lalouie]

Porzingis has been so bad that he has skewed all the +/- of the starters tbf.

I mean Doncic is top10/5 in most advanced metrics.VORP,PER,BPM,...
Comparing him to Ingram who never had good ones, its not fair.

You cant blame Doncic for his team being this bad.

arranged by ppg. luka is the next great. nonetheless, the two newest ( one rookie and one 3yrs under his belt) IMMEDIATELY become the team's scoring leaders as soon as they set foot on the mavs' court. that's what luka had waiting for him

[Bob8]

Anybody who is watching Mavs constantly will tell you that Luka is playing like elite offensive player at the moment. I honestly don’t believe he can play like that the whole season. On the other hand, everyone objective Mavs supporter will tell you that he’s very bad in D. So if we have to talk about his deficiencies, we should talk about his D.

[Buzzard]

Try this formula in every game instead of on off.

OffRtg - Drtg = x (not net rating)

This formula penalizes you for turnovers. Learned this from AirP. Been mindblowingly awesome to watch games and then the next day on bbref, watch that calculation agree with my eye test.

Yeah, at one point I was doing a single-season peak formula and went through tons of examples of this little equation. Since then it's one I often glance at on bbref. The GOATs are like +20-25, and the serious contributors are usually around +10-12, if I'm not mistaken.

Here are four random selections:

2016 Curry = +22
2020 Gordon Hayward = +16
2020 Doncic = +11
2019 Doncic = -2

Since this thread is about Luka and I find it really strange that he could be a minus anything on the Mavs, I checked the game logs for the simple formula Ortg - Drtg. Mind blowing as KingDavid states.

Luka had a minus in two wins using that simple formula.
Dallas at Denver 10-29, -33 by that formula.
Orlando vs Dallas 11-06, -5 by that formula.
The only other minus is a game in which the Mavs lost and he had a -1 on 10-27 against Portland.

I am guessing that -33 is a huge outlier just by me never being able to see Luka that bad a negative; and maybe could explain a lot about the stats of on/off having him in a negative for 2019. I do not go through stats, so its just a guess on my part; but -33 seems huge.

[Archx]

I have simple question. Do +/- and on/off numbers measure players impact?

I have another simple question. Let's say you replace him with a double Positive player, (like I bet Simmons is), or just take him out of the team to reduce Doncic's negative impact.
What would Mavs then be, contenders?.

Ben wouldn't do anything for the Mavs because he can't shoot. And they would have 2 wins so far probably, because that's how many times bench played amazingly.

And a fun thought to think about. If you replace Ben with him on the Philly roster, i bet he will become double positive with the guys that they have. I am also willing to say that Philly would get into the finals with him. Ben is simply terrible for them, apart from his defense here and there.

[Richard Miller]

Trying not to be triggered for using who's instead of whose

[Showdown]

The most common explanation I've heard from Mavs fans is that they have a strong bench that skews their starter's on/off numbers.

That certainly has to play a part, but even among Mavs starters he was 2nd worst last season and is 2nd worst this season. And it’s not like Carlisle uses 5 man substitutions to completely pit the starters against the bench.

So far this season the issue seems to be KP. Zach Lowe addressed this briefly in his ten things column on Friday: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28021786/ten-nba-things-like-including-luka-doncic-trickery

The thing to consider is the Mavs roster has been a dumpster fire since Doncic got there with the exception of their bench. When you look at the players Luka has most commonly played with it becomes a lot easier to see why his on/off has been so bad.

Why is he dumpster fire, i thought Lucca was great at p'n'r and p'n'p' ?

[Bob8]

Trying not to be triggered for using who's instead of whose

He used that by purpose, because he knows that many of his supporters are from Slovenia, English being 3rd or 4th language.