Michael Jordan's Three-Point Shot Selection

[zimpy27]

Jordan shot 28.8% from 3pt line during his career (excluding 94-97 when it was brought in a foot).

League average from 3pt line during those exact same years was 33.2%

Current league average is 35.8%

So Jordan in this era would be shooting 31.1% from 3pt line equivalently.

[twyzted]

Oh okay so now we're only talking about those three years. That's fine. I'm still asking a question that no one has answered. I'll give you your chance to respond.

My Claim: The Chicago Bulls had the best #2 and # 3 option in the NBA in the 90s

91 lakers. Worthy&scott
91&93 jazz. Stockton&malone
91&92 warriors. Hardaway&Richmond
94 sonics.
94&95 magic.
96 sonics.

Oh, you're going that route? This should be easy then. Which 90s team had a better #2 and #3 option than MJ's Pippen and Grant? Let's hear it.

Well you did ask who had better #2&#3 then grant and pippen.

Worthy, Scott. No
Malone was the #1 option so that was a weird submission. What are you doing? lol I'm talking about #2 and #3 option (help).
Hardaway and Richmond maybe. So that's it. Good to know that maybe one team in the whole league didn't have more help. Of course when you factor in defense from Grant and Pippen it becomes a no brainer to keep them over Richmond and Hardaway.

Worthy was all nba 3rd&all star.
Scott, perkins or divac could be argued over grant.
Porter and duckworth/kersey.
And jazz had malone stockton and malone

But the thing is your question only answers that Pippen infact was likely the best #2 in the league.
But at the same time the other teams were deeper.
Trailblazers, suns, sonics, heat, magic, pacers, jazz and more had at times a great #1 and great deep teams
But bulls had Jordan and pippen.
Barkley&Kj
Stockton&malone
Mullins&Hardaway
Morning&LJ
Penny&Shaq
Drexler&porter
Were no trash duos.
Some had 5 other players scoring over 10ppg
Grant had 1 all defense with Jordan. Kukoc only other scorer in 2nd threepeat or creator.
He gave you 10-14ppg with 7-10rpg good defense.
Rodman great 1 year, good next, the parties and wwe the last.
Then role players.

[twyzted]

Jordan shot 28.8% from 3pt line during his career (excluding 94-97 when it was brought in a foot).

League average from 3pt line during those exact same years was 33.2%

Current league average is 35.8%

So Jordan in this era would be shooting 31.1% from 3pt line equivalently.

That is not what has been debated in this thread.
Its about how many of his tries were heaves or end of clock.
Not how he would shot to day.
People are speculating if he was a better 3pt shooter then the numbers indicate.

[loveandbeer]

I think I need to clear some stuff up about All NBA and All Defensive selections. MJ played with far more talent and I'm not sure where people are getting their info from but here are the cold, hard, facts.


MJ's teammates (All NBA and All Defensive)
All NBA Selections
92: Pippen (2nd team)
93: Pippen (3rd team)
94: Pippen (1st team) *MJ vacation
95: Pippen (1st team)
96: Pippen (1st team)
97: Pippen (2nd team)
98: Pippen (3rd team)
Pippen = 6x
TOTAL = 6

All Defensive Selections
91: Pippen (2nd team)
92: Pippen (1st team)
93: Pippen (1st team) and Grant (2nd team)
94: Pippen (1st team) and Grant (2nd team) *MJ vacation
95: Pippen (1st team)
96: Pippen (1st team) and Rodman (1st team)
97: Pippen (1st team)
98: Pippen (1st team)
Pippen = 7x, Grant = 1x, Rodman, 1x
TOTAL = 9

GRAND TOTAL
6x All NBA, 9x All Defensive = 15 total selections

___________________________________________________________________________

LBJ's teammates (All NBA and All Defensive)
All NBA Selections
11: Wade (2nd team)
12: Wade (3rd team)
13: Wade (3rd team)
15: Kyrie (3rd team)
20: Davis (1st team)
Wade = 3x, Kyrie 1x, Davis 1x
TOTAL = 5

All Defensive Selections
10: Varejao (2nd team)
20: Davis (1st team)
Varejao = 1x, Davis = 1x
TOTAL = 2

GRAND TOTAL
5x All NBA, 2x All Defensive = 7 total selections

Recap:
MJ had teammates make All NBA or All Defensive team 15x
LBJ had teammates make All NBA or All Defensive team 7x
This isn't debatable. MJ played with much, much more talent for their respective eras,15 to 7.

Yup this is largely ignored. It's always BUT WADE AND BOSH AND KYRIE AND LOVE WERE SUPERSTARS.

What has ANY of them done since Lebron left?

Wade / Bosh = missed the playoffs / bounced early in two years even despite adding solid guys like Dragic / Deng / Joe Johnson. Is that two superstars?

Kyrie = had a good season in Boston but struggled mightily as the first option, did nothing of note in the playoffs on a high seeded team

Love = ... Is his career over at this point?

[FreeThrowLine]

Toni Kukoc and Dennis Rodman and Ron Harper are "low level role players" now? Sounds like you need to turn in our Basketball Discussion card until further notice.

I think you should turn yours in, if you think they were on the roster the same time as Pippen and GRANT since that was the specific example given

Oh okay so now we're only talking about those three years. That's fine. I'm still asking a question that no one has answered. I'll give you your chance to respond.

My Claim: The Chicago Bulls had the best #2 and # 3 option in the NBA in the 90s

If you disagree,
My Question: Which team would MJ swap #2 and #3 options with? Which opponent's #2 and #3 would MJ give up Pippen and Grant for?

How about instead of limiting it to Pippen and Grant we just take the best player off the team and ask which team would MJ swap rosters with? That's much more telling unless you think the NBA was a 3 on 3 tournament in the 90's?

Or what player could you swap MJ with and still win a championship for the Bulls let alone 3 peat twice?

Who do you consider the number 2 and 3 options? Are we going by who put up more points per game? Everyone values players differently, for e.g. on th 90-91 Nets the leading scorer was Theus, if you swap him out with Jordan and give them a chance to gel, that team with Coleman, Blaylock, Petrovic & following year added Kenny Anderson.

That team with Jordan and a good coach (Chuck Daley was hired to replace Fitch) is a really interesting team, maybe MJ pushes Coleman to fulfill his potential like he did with Pippen

Again just removing the teams leading scorer, take the 96/97 Heat and swap Tim Hardaway with MJ alongside Mourning, Mashburn, Lenard and Majerle, with Pat Riley coaching and guys like PJ Brown and Kurt Thomas that's better than the Bulls

How about the 99 Knicks with Houston, Sprewell, Ewing, Larry Johnson and Camby

The 93 Hawks coached by Lenny Wilkins if you swap Nique with MJ and give him prime Kevin Willis, Danny Manning, Augmon, Blaylock

Replace Reggie with MJ on a bunch of those Pacers teams and they're winning the championship with a coach like Larry Brown and some tough hard working players like the Davis duo and Smits in a time when the ball was going inside. Or the Pacers team coached by Bird that had those same previously mentioned guys plus Mullin, Mark Jackson and Jalen Rose if you swap MJ with Reggie that's an easy 3 peat

MJ on the Hornets with either Mourning or Johnson, Curry & Gill

The Rockets swap MJ for Hakeem and give him past prime Barkley and Drexler with Elie, Johnson and Willis and they're winning

Take Gugliotta (top scorer) off the 96/97 Wolves and give MJ, Garnett & Marbury

Late 90's Spurs swap for either Duncan or Robinson and leave him with the other guy + guys like Elliot, Porter, Elie and Johnson and Pop as coach

Swap Jordan for Drexler and the Blazers are winning more rings or the Suns for Barkley and they're getting one or later on with McDyess, uncle Cliffy, Kevin Johnson, Jason Kidd, Nash (not yet known how good he would be) and Ceballos

Take out one of Run TMC and sub MJ in or later on swap out Sprewell with MJ and give him Webber and Mullin + Owens

The Sonics alongside McDaniel, Pierce, Kemp or Payton, Eddie Johnson, McKey and Ellis or later with Payton, Schrempf, Pierce and Gill

Late 90's Lakers you get rid of either Shaq or Kobe and leave MJ with that guy + Jones, NVE, Horry and Fox and that's a ring

I bet MJ swaps Pippen and Grant for Wade and Bosh too...

The point is solid depth is just as valuable/important as 1 great sidekick

[elchengue20]

The LBJ playing in stacked teams myth should be over by now.

MJ played with better teams against weaker competition. They never had to face an really all time great team. The only one he faced were the Celtics and Pistons and they beat him until they got washed up.

With that being sayed, i agree MJ was a great shooter and would have been a better 3point shooter in this era. Prime MJ probably averages 40 playing today.

[Wallace_Wallace]

Ultra-competitive, if he wanted he would break Curry 3pt record.

Jordan receiving credit for something he didn’t do, but could’ve if he really wanted to?

Sent from my SM-G950F using RealGM mobile app

He could’ve broke the rebounding record too but he chose not to.

On that basis, he should be considered one of the best rebounders of all time.

If Michael really wanted to, he could have been a better swimmer than Michael Phelps. Looking at his height, wingspan and his hands, there's no doubt in my mind he could do a handstand on top of the water......if he wanted to

[alebaba]

The LBJ playing in stacked teams myth should be over by now.

MJ played with better teams against weaker competition. They never had to face an really all time great team. The only one he faced were the Celtics and Pistons and they beat him until they got washed up.

With that being sayed, i agree MJ was a great shooter and would have been a better 3point shooter in this era. Prime MJ probably averages 40 playing today.

What does this have to do anything about the topic? you Lebron fans are getting on my nerve, like forreal. We get it, Lebron is great but he will never surpass Jordan as the Goat.

Remember this, Jordan stuck with his team even when they were bad.

[Pelly24]

To me, it's always been a bad faith argument to suggest that MJ would be an awful three-point shooter today.

Given his mechanics, his efficiency from midrange and his FT percentage he is a great natural shooter. If he didn't throw up a bunch of heaves and shot off the catch more I'd estimate he's at minimal a 36% shooter on four attempts. And he could've been a 40% shooter sometimes.

[Baski]

Anthony Davis rebounding stats dropped too. Has he gone away from the basket too, does he avoid contact?

Yes he does. It's why the Lakers play him at PF even in the POs.

Lebrons' presence doesnt affect the defensive play in particular, rather it makes it necessary that he is surrounded by mostly great offensive players who are less likely to be good defenders, with the very rare exception of a mega star like Anthony Davis.

You said Draymond himself wouldn't win DPOY on a team with Lebron. What you're saying here doesn't support that. Your own words are that Lebron doesn't affect defensive play (which is wrong anyway) so how does he keep Green from winning DPOY?

Draymond would never start for a Lebron team, because he cant score big and his shooting isnt dependable.
If people take a look at Dwight Howards' resume and compare it to Dennis Rodmans', they'll see they're as identical as two NBA veterans ever had. Of course Dwight was once a franchise player and Dennis never was, and Dwight was a better scorer too, but thats besides the point. Rondo is an all time great defender too and an all time great playmaker. Neither is starting for the Lakers.

Varejao, Thompson, Javale Mcgee, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony and Markieff Morris have all started for Lebron led teams, but Draymond wouldn't start. Sure.

[cupcakesnake]

In the modern era, we've pretty much seen the entire league (minus Demar Derozan, sorry), put more emphasis on shooting the 3-pointer. Offseason after offseason, we see guys come out, they've clearly decided to take an extra step back for that extra point, and then they see their efficiency sky-rocket in most cases.

I think it's obvious that MJ was shooting a larger percentage of his 3-pointers as a last resort. The entire league was. There were still announcers as recently as 2012(!) who were talking casually about how they hated to see guys taking the 3 rather than trying to find "something better".

But I don't see why Jordan should get any credit for this. Everyone would be better at shooting threes today. Not Jordan. He also shouldn't be overly punished for not emphasizing the 3. I don't think there is any needle to be moved in this discussion for Jordan's benefit or detriment.

[scrabbarista]

To me, it's always been a bad faith argument to suggest that MJ would be an awful three-point shooter today.

Given his mechanics, his efficiency from midrange and his FT percentage he is a great natural shooter. If he didn't throw up a bunch of heaves and shot off the catch more I'd estimate he's at minimal a 36% shooter on four attempts. And he could've been a 40% shooter sometimes.

Appreciate the common sense.

[Shanghai Kid]

Its not like a John Wall or Westbrook scenario.

MJ may literally be the best midrange shooter and a great FT shooter.

In the 80s/90s he was already dominating without the 3-point shot and probably didn't emphasize it in offseason training.

Imagine MJ today seeing his peers making 3s and realgm posters saying "Ya just can't do it MJ'.

It seems wayyy more reasonable that given an offseason or two to focus on it with todays shooting coaches and todays emphasis on 3-point shooting that he makes it a bigger part of his game.

[scrabbarista]

In the modern era, we've pretty much seen the entire league (minus Demar Derozan, sorry), put more emphasis on shooting the 3-pointer. Offseason after offseason, we see guys come out, they've clearly decided to take an extra step back for that extra point, and then they see their efficiency sky-rocket in most cases.

I think it's obvious that MJ was shooting a larger percentage of his 3-pointers as a last resort. The entire league was. There were still announcers as recently as 2012(!) who were talking casually about how they hated to see guys taking the 3 rather than trying to find "something better".

But I don't see why Jordan should get any credit for this. Everyone would be better at shooting threes today. Not Jordan. He also shouldn't be overly punished for not emphasizing the 3. I don't think there is any needle to be moved in this discussion for Jordan's benefit or detriment.

I see your point (no doubt: this line of argument applies to many/all players from that era), but mine (which I made in the original thread, not in this one) is that he may have shot a larger percentage of his attempts as a last resort than nearly anyone in league history. The combination of his high usage, high minutes, and being a perimeter player would mean that those shots would have fallen to him more than anyone else. Not to mention the fact that he sought out those attempts. Then, because of his era and his other strengths, he had (relatively) fewer quality 3PA's to counterbalance the poor attempts.

From 1984 to 1993, here are his three-point attempts per game and his percentages:

REGULAR SEASON:

1.4 - .301

PLAYOFFS:

2.2 - .352

The essence of my whole argument is captured in these numbers. It's that he took so few threes that his numbers were dragged way down by the (relatively) huge percentage of them that must have been desperation shots. When those attempts were counterbalanced by an extra 0.8 attempts per game in the playoffs (a giant jump, actually), his overall percentage jumped by 5 points. The beauty of this argument is that it doesn't have to rely on looking at numbers across different seasons. All you have to do is look at the exact same nine seasons from '85 to '93 - all of which happened before the line was shortened. And if he was really a .352 shooter (not saying that question is settled, but if he was) in that era ('85-'93), then he was above average for the time. [My contention in the original thread was that he may have been closer to 38% than 35%. The only thing missing to make this actual fact - as seen in the stats in bold above - was more attempts. Then, further extrapolating this line of thought, if he only needed more attempts to increase to 38% in his time, then there's no telling what % he might have reached in the current time, when his practice time over the course of his entire life would have been much more heavily directed toward long range shooting. But I digress.] The whole question is meaningful, because in the most popular GOAT video on YouTube, the analyst says that three-point shooting was the only area in which Jordan was (slightly) below average. (He names four areas of weakness for James.) If Jordan was actually above average as a three-point shooter - and my argument is that when understood within the context of his attempts, he probably was - then he was at least above average in literally every aspect of the game.

[prophet_of_rage]

The LBJ playing in stacked teams myth should be over by now.

MJ played with better teams against weaker competition. They never had to face an really all time great team. The only one he faced were the Celtics and Pistons and they beat him until they got washed up.

With that being sayed, i agree MJ was a great shooter and would have been a better 3point shooter in this era. Prime MJ probably averages 40 playing today.

What does this have to do anything about the topic? you Lebron fans are getting on my nerve, like forreal. We get it, Lebron is great but he will never surpass Jordan as the Goat.

Remember this, Jordan stuck with his team even when they were bad.

You mean MJ honored his contract? When did Lebron ever ask to be traded?

Sent from my SM-N970W using Tapatalk

[WillyJakkz]

Nah MJ just always threatened to quit when the management would state they would trade Scottie or fire Phil (whom Mike was dependent of both in order to win)... That's all he did....

[ellobo]

Just for historical context from someone who grew up before the three point era:

The three point line was adopted by the NBA in 1979, universally by the NCAA in 1986, and by high school in 1987.

If you grew up and learned to play in the 60's, 70's, or 80's, you grew up playing on courts that didn't have a three point line. Believe me, this made a huge difference in approach to the game. Even if you saw the three pointer in the ABA or early on in the NBA, when you learned and played the game it wasn't even an option. People didn't avoid taking threes because they thought it was a bad shot -- There was NO LINE!. The three point shot just didn't exist. Even after the NCAA and HS adopted the line around '86-87, a lot of public courts did not get lines painted for several years after that.

Sure, there were always long-range shooters, and early adopters who were ahead of the curve in making it part of their games. But I don't think a lot of younger people understand the impact of growing up and playing without a line your whole basketball life before getting to the NBA. It's not just that people back then were too stupid to realize that 3>2.

[madmaxmedia]

Jordan receiving credit for something he didn’t do, but could’ve if he really wanted to?

Michael Jordan not only *could have been* an all-time Top 10 NFL QB, he *was* an all-time Top 10 NFL QB.

(but as far as basketball goes I think OP makes some good observations but IMO it doesn't even really matter, MJ played in a different time as far as the 3-pointer goes. He is the GOAT regardless.)

[madmaxmedia]

Its not like a John Wall or Westbrook scenario.

MJ may literally be the best midrange shooter and a great FT shooter.

In the 80s/90s he was already dominating without the 3-point shot and probably didn't emphasize it in offseason training.

Imagine MJ today seeing his peers making 3s and realgm posters saying "Ya just can't do it MJ'.

It seems wayyy more reasonable that given an offseason or two to focus on it with todays shooting coaches and todays emphasis on 3-point shooting that he makes it a bigger part of his game.

In the alternate timeline where MJ plays today, James Harden rolls his eyes when asked about Michael's 3 point shooting, next time they face each other Michael shoots only 3-pointers on him and goes 16 for 19 for exactly 48 points in the win (he misses all his FT on purpose.)

[og15]

Ultra-competitive, if he wanted he would break Curry 3pt record.

Jordan receiving credit for something he didn’t do, but could’ve if he really wanted to?

Sent from my SM-G950F using RealGM mobile app

He could’ve broke the rebounding record too but he chose not to.

On that basis, he should be considered one of the best rebounders of all time.

Lol, yea, people can get very mythical about players.

I don't think this is a situation to dismiss, though, my observation has been that he was a better 3PT shooter than his percentages, and he would be at the least good in his prime as a 3PT shooter. Certainly nothing close to what some people who basically should loose all rights to have their comments taken seriously and with a straight face compare him to DeRozan for example.

It is a point I have made in the past. Statistics always need to be analyzed, they don't happen in a vacuum, and 3PT% doesn't happen in a vacuum. A players 3PT% doesn't always represent their 3PT shooting ability, we all know this, the amount of attempts, the quality of attempts, the role on the team, these are all factors.

That's why none of us look at Bird's 3PT% from 80-81 to 83-84 which was 25.7% on 0.9 3PA/G and think it was representative of his 3PT shooting ability even at that time. If we look at his first 6 seasons of his career, the more 3PA he took, the higher his percentage. This is very logical when we are talking about low 3PA from a first option. When the attempts are around 1 or fewer, then many more attempts are late clock, desperation, and heaves. The more you take, the more are good shots, and the higher your percentage.

Look at Bird's first 6 seasons and compare 3PA and 3PT% and rank in order:
0.7 3PA / 21.2% 3PT (Year 3)
0.9 3PA / 24.7% 3PT (Year 5)
0.9 3PA / 27.0% 3PT (Year 2)
1.0 3PA / 28.6% 3PT (Year 4)
1.6 3PA / 42.7% 3PT (Year 6)
1.7 3PA / 40.6% 3PT (Year 1)

If we take only the seasons where Bird shot 2+ 3PA, he was a 39.4% 3PT shooter on 2.8 3PA for his career. For first option players who will be the ones taking the late clock, desperation and heave shots, we generally won't be able to gauge true 3PT shooting ability with few attempts. The median 3PT% for very late clock 3PT shots this past season was around 26%, and that includes the late shots that might not necessarily have been bad, such as a late open catch and shoot, but the other shots drag that percentage down. The primary ball handlers / first options are going to be the ones that end up taking more of those types of shots, in a league where players/teams are barely shooting the three, a primary option is going to have a lot of the few three's they are taking be those kinds of shots. Obviously if you are a secondary scorer or role player, and you are catching and shooting very late clock after someone else has broken down the defense and created an open look, that's a different shot.

Here are some examples of player's percentages in very late clock this season:
Devonte Graham 1.5 3PA / 29.3%
Donovan Mitchell 1.3 3PA / 19.1%
James Harden 1.3 3PA / 27.6%
Chris Paul 1.1 3PA / 24.0%
Reggie Jackson 1.1 3PA / 33.3%
Luke Doncic 1.0 3PA / 6.9%
-----
Jamal Murray 0.8 3PA / 29.2%
Lebron James 0.8 3PA / 24.0%
Jimmy Butler 0.7 3PA / 21.1%
Stephen Curry (18-19) 0.6 3PA / 20.5%

We see that even a guy like Butler who only took 2.1 3PA this season, he still had 0.7 3PA late in the clock, that's almost half of his three point attempts, though he was still not good otherwise. Wade's best 3PT% seasons also correlated with his highest 3PA seasons, and his lowest 3PT% with his lowest attempts. We see a guy like DeRozan who all the combined seasons he took 1.5+ 3PA he shot 30% 3PT on average, but the last two seasons when he took the bare minimum, he's shot 20%, and that's simply because the relationship between 3PA and 3PT% is not linear. Role plays a factor, we have to separate catch and shoot guys and role players from primary ball handlers and scorers, then there's a threshold for primary scorers around the 2-3 3PA mark before their desperation shots start to get cancelled out in terms of how much they impact their percentage. Then of course depending on the player and their ability, there's also another upper limit where they start taking bad shots and their 3PT% could suffer, that one is harder to figure out.

Of course we want to differentiate pure speculation, from supported reasoning. So if a player NEVER actually takes more three's and never shoots well, all we have is speculation. In Jordan's case, his two highest 3PA seasons before the short line were his best 3PT shooting seasons, (2.9 3PA / 230 3PA / 35.2%) and (3.0 3PA / 245 3PA / 37.6%), then we have the sample of 5 playoff seasons, and 91 games where he shot 2.5 3PA / 35.7% 3PT (227 3PA), so we're not simply speculating, we're just projecting from ACTUAL happenings.

In terms of projecting him into a great 3PT shooter, or something, I don't care for that, he played in a different time where the 3PT shot was simply utilized differently and not a main focus. What I do think is important, especially since there's a lot of "how would this guy play now", and what are this players weaknesses, etc discussion going on, is to have a balanced and nuanced take that isn't simply looking at a stat and not doing any analysis.