_AIJ_ wrote:Mike87 wrote:Great post and appreciate the effort put in. I don't think he's quite there yet but slowing creeping to top 25 status. If he can up his free throw attempts and push to 27ish ppg range (which I think he will do in the next few years) he'll be there and continue climbing higher. Very impressive what he's doing at just 20 years old.
He IS attacking the basket at all time but the referees just hate our team so thats why the low FTA
Interestingly enough I think it's a little bit more than that:
I found really interesting data that backs the idea that there is a reason behind Edwards driving tendencies and lack of foul calls. I found a stat called drives per game. Edwards is ranked 39th at 11 drives per game well below the sample that I was comparing him to. The lowest group of players was grouped in the 15-16 range and then there was another large group in the 17-18 range and outliers in the 19-20 range. It's really interesting that Edwards ranks higher than all of these players in attempts at the rim but has significantly fewer drives per game (4-9).
The next question I had is Edwards drives number lower because he chooses to stay out at the perimeter or another reason? Part of the reason is that Edwards is not also the primary playmaker for the Wolves. Guys who are the primary playmaker will get a lot more touches. Edwards touches are in the high 60 range which is within the middle of a range of where other "wings" are positioned from the mid 60's to the mid 70's. His touches aren't the problem at least not all of it (it may be relevant for comparing to players like Harden).
I'm going to stop digging for now. I think it's clear that part of the reason that he doesn't get more free throws is because he doesn't drive to the rim much. I should say that he doesn't drive to the rim much either to try to score or get fouled or pass to teammates.His usage is also 4-7% lower than most other 'wing' stars and his assist numbers are slightly lower as well. This then leads into Ant's limitations as a ball-handler and decision-maker that at this point limit him largely to a scorer/finisher role. He gets possessions run through him where he's asked to finish and he does it at the level of other elite stars, but he can't quite run enough diverse actions to have more of a playmaker role--either by design in creating a role that allows him to succeed or because right now he doesn't look to do those things even if the Wolves coaches are designing offenses that want him to try to do that (I think it's the former).
The reason Ant averages 3-4 free throws per game instead of 6-7 like other wing stars is because his usage is lower than other stars and thus he doesn't have as many possessions per game as other players that end in an outcome (one of those being a free throw). If he was being used more and thus had the opportunity for additional drives (as well as other outcomes like shots or passes or free throws) he would average 5-7 FTs per game low end/high end based on his .33 FTs per drive attempt (3.7/11) which is pretty much actually in-line with other guys that aren't complete outliers like say Harden/Giannis/Lebron.
let me know what you want me to predict next.