Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals

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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#61 » by MindState » Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:42 am

Beethoven wrote:Betting over for gsw looks to be a sure win wager I mean cmon 52 games??


Its a development year for GS. They have 3 lottery picks who are all going to be playing big roles this season and be integrated into the main rotation. Its going to be a rocky year for the team, and Kerr has shown he prioritizes health and rest over regular season wins. They should still be a top 4 seed, and thats all that matters.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#62 » by GiannisAnte34 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:47 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
Floody100 wrote:
Care to explain or are you just a petty Bucks fans who doesn’t like that the Celtics are predicted to win more games ?


The Celtics won 51 games, care to explain how they've improved 5 wins?

1) Adding Brogdon who has missed on average nearly 33 games per season the last 3 years (100 games missed the last 3 years if you want to get technical) doesn't strike as a rock solid improvement. He has a degenerative foot injury that won't ever get better

2) Udoka was a 1st year coach, a lot of 1st year coaches historically do better than 2nd year coaches because the league doesn't have film to study their tendencies yet.

3) Al Horford isn't getting younger, last year he had the benefit of being completely fresh thanks to OKC benching him in the 2020-2021 season.

4) Timelord played through his recovery of a torn meniscus because the Celtics went deep in the playoffs.

5) Last season the Celtics pushed all of their starters to play much higher average minutes per game because their backs were up against the wall before the All-Star break. Once the Finals came around, it was clear that the toll taken on their stars from the regular season and deep playoff run was a factor. If the Celtics are wise and in the position where they don't need to play tight rotations and playoff intensity starting in January, they'll load manage their stars more (particularly Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Timelord)


2nd year coaches do worse than rookie coaches? Got any evidence to back that up? I’d bet the opposite.

I think the Vegas line is right for the Celtics. I also think the Bucks is too low as I mentioned earlier but your reasoning is ridiculous.


I know that you won't put any money down on the Celtics winning 56 or more games so why are you even upset?

I'll bet the rights to change your signature to whatever I see fit if the Celtics win less than 56 games, if they win 56 games or more you can change my signature to whatever your liking. Confirming this bet will be binding and no retractions will be available, let me know
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#63 » by Floody100 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:55 am

GiannisAnte34 wrote:
Floody100 wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
The Celtics won 51 games, care to explain how they've improved 5 wins?

1) Adding Brogdon who has missed on average nearly 33 games per season the last 3 years (100 games missed the last 3 years if you want to get technical) doesn't strike as a rock solid improvement. He has a degenerative foot injury that won't ever get better

2) Udoka was a 1st year coach, a lot of 1st year coaches historically do better than 2nd year coaches because the league doesn't have film to study their tendencies yet.

3) Al Horford isn't getting younger, last year he had the benefit of being completely fresh thanks to OKC benching him in the 2020-2021 season.

4) Timelord played through his recovery of a torn meniscus because the Celtics went deep in the playoffs.

5) Last season the Celtics pushed all of their starters to play much higher average minutes per game because their backs were up against the wall before the All-Star break. Once the Finals came around, it was clear that the toll taken on their stars from the regular season and deep playoff run was a factor. If the Celtics are wise and in the position where they don't need to play tight rotations and playoff intensity starting in January, they'll load manage their stars more (particularly Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Timelord)


We started the season inconsistency with a record of 18-21 largely due to getting used to a new coach & new system. As soon as everything came together we ended up going 33-10 in our next 43. We’ve added much needed talent & depth which will help too.


What new system? The Celtics spammed switch everything defense all year long and they stuck to a tightened rotation giving heavy minutes to their top 7 guys. Good luck with two injury prone "talent & depth" guys


Ummm the new system that was different from the previous one under Brad Stevens ….
God read things properly so you don’t make yourself look like a complete fool.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#64 » by AussieCeltic » Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:58 am

GiannisAnte34 wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
The Celtics won 51 games, care to explain how they've improved 5 wins?

1) Adding Brogdon who has missed on average nearly 33 games per season the last 3 years (100 games missed the last 3 years if you want to get technical) doesn't strike as a rock solid improvement. He has a degenerative foot injury that won't ever get better

2) Udoka was a 1st year coach, a lot of 1st year coaches historically do better than 2nd year coaches because the league doesn't have film to study their tendencies yet.

3) Al Horford isn't getting younger, last year he had the benefit of being completely fresh thanks to OKC benching him in the 2020-2021 season.

4) Timelord played through his recovery of a torn meniscus because the Celtics went deep in the playoffs.

5) Last season the Celtics pushed all of their starters to play much higher average minutes per game because their backs were up against the wall before the All-Star break. Once the Finals came around, it was clear that the toll taken on their stars from the regular season and deep playoff run was a factor. If the Celtics are wise and in the position where they don't need to play tight rotations and playoff intensity starting in January, they'll load manage their stars more (particularly Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Timelord)


2nd year coaches do worse than rookie coaches? Got any evidence to back that up? I’d bet the opposite.

I think the Vegas line is right for the Celtics. I also think the Bucks is too low as I mentioned earlier but your reasoning is ridiculous.


I know that you won't put any money down on the Celtics winning 56 or more games so why are you even upset?

I'll bet the rights to change your signature to whatever I see fit if the Celtics win less than 56 games, if they win 56 games or more you can change my signature to whatever your liking. Confirming this bet will be binding and no retractions will be available, let me know


I said the line is right which means it’s a no play for me (I put my 3 favs earlier in the thread). I actually do bet and make money betting so I look for edges. I think Vegas nailed the bet and Celtics will be in that range so it would be dumb throwing money on that.

I’ll take your bet if we agree bets off if Tatum or Brown miss 20+ games.
LaLover11 wrote:I bet you $100 Mavs beat the Celtics
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#65 » by AussieCeltic » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:02 am

Floody100 wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
Floody100 wrote:
We started the season inconsistency with a record of 18-21 largely due to getting used to a new coach & new system. As soon as everything came together we ended up going 33-10 in our next 43. We’ve added much needed talent & depth which will help too.


What new system? The Celtics spammed switch everything defense all year long and they stuck to a tightened rotation giving heavy minutes to their top 7 guys. Good luck with two injury prone "talent & depth" guys


Ummm the new system that was different from the previous one under Brad Stevens ….
God read things properly so you don’t make yourself look like a complete fool.


Don’t worry about him, he’s been a Celtic troll since the playoffs.

It’s not just “spam” switching as well. It was putting Horford on the main scoring big and TimeLord as the help defender and keeping him in the corner. Plus a completely new offensive scheme.

Also the rotation went to 8 guys so adding 2 extra players to that rotation no matter how injury prone they are is a bonus.

I’m expecting Tatum to leap into the MVP conversation next season as well.
LaLover11 wrote:I bet you $100 Mavs beat the Celtics
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#66 » by GiannisAnte34 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:14 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
2nd year coaches do worse than rookie coaches? Got any evidence to back that up? I’d bet the opposite.

I think the Vegas line is right for the Celtics. I also think the Bucks is too low as I mentioned earlier but your reasoning is ridiculous.


I know that you won't put any money down on the Celtics winning 56 or more games so why are you even upset?

I'll bet the rights to change your signature to whatever I see fit if the Celtics win less than 56 games, if they win 56 games or more you can change my signature to whatever your liking. Confirming this bet will be binding and no retractions will be available, let me know


I said the line is right which means it’s a no play for me (I put my 3 favs earlier in the thread). I actually do bet and make money betting so I look for edges. I think Vegas nailed the bet and Celtics will be in that range so it would be dumb throwing money on that.

I’ll take your bet if we agree bets off if Tatum or Brown miss 20+ games.


no restrictions or contingincies, Celtics win less than 56 games. take it or leave it.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#67 » by GiannisAnte34 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 am

Floody100 wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
Floody100 wrote:
We started the season inconsistency with a record of 18-21 largely due to getting used to a new coach & new system. As soon as everything came together we ended up going 33-10 in our next 43. We’ve added much needed talent & depth which will help too.


What new system? The Celtics spammed switch everything defense all year long and they stuck to a tightened rotation giving heavy minutes to their top 7 guys. Good luck with two injury prone "talent & depth" guys


Ummm the new system that was different from the previous one under Brad Stevens ….
God read things properly so you don’t make yourself look like a complete fool.


the new system that was different from the previous one :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

AMAZING explanation there, now I definitely feel foolish. not like Stevens couldn't pick someone to adopt his system or anything, it would be absurd to suggest that the Celtics run the same plays and schemes that they did under Stevens.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#68 » by GiannisAnte34 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:19 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
Floody100 wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
What new system? The Celtics spammed switch everything defense all year long and they stuck to a tightened rotation giving heavy minutes to their top 7 guys. Good luck with two injury prone "talent & depth" guys


Ummm the new system that was different from the previous one under Brad Stevens ….
God read things properly so you don’t make yourself look like a complete fool.


Don’t worry about him, he’s been a Celtic troll since the playoffs.

It’s not just “spam” switching as well. It was putting Horford on the main scoring big and TimeLord as the help defender and keeping him in the corner. Plus a completely new offensive scheme.

Also the rotation went to 8 guys so adding 2 extra players to that rotation no matter how injury prone they are is a bonus.

I’m expecting Tatum to leap into the MVP conversation next season as well.


the "completely new offensive scheme" was moving away from a ball dominant guard in Kemba where more screening was necessary and Tatum/Brown moving away from hero ball. the hero ball was still a thing in the first half of the season, which has little to do with scheme and more to do with the Jays ego being in check or not.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#69 » by Floody100 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 11:47 am

GiannisAnte34 wrote:
Floody100 wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:
What new system? The Celtics spammed switch everything defense all year long and they stuck to a tightened rotation giving heavy minutes to their top 7 guys. Good luck with two injury prone "talent & depth" guys


Ummm the new system that was different from the previous one under Brad Stevens ….
God read things properly so you don’t make yourself look like a complete fool.


the new system that was different from the previous one :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

AMAZING explanation there, now I definitely feel foolish. not like Stevens couldn't pick someone to adopt his system or anything, it would be absurd to suggest that the Celtics run the same plays and schemes that they did under Stevens.


What are you talking about ?
I clearly explained it took a while for the players to gel under a new system that was put forward by a new coach which is why we started the season 18-21. Once the players got used to the system is when we went on our run.

Read it twice so you actually understand what I’m talking about …
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#70 » by Roger Murdock » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:57 pm

Raptors over is far from a lock. They were one of the luckiest teams in the NBA last year with injuries and missed games and have little depth. Almost all of their starters were towards league lead in MPG.

If Toronto had the injury luck of Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, etc last year they would have comfortably missed the playoffs.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#71 » by CP War Hawks » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:02 pm

Teams that run it back may finish higher but it's unlikely. The Hawks were an example of that last season. What is the deadline to place bets, it's way too early with KD holding up transactions.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#72 » by QingJames » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:19 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:Raptors over is far from a lock. They were one of the luckiest teams in the NBA last year with injuries and missed games and have little depth. Almost all of their starters were towards league lead in MPG.

If Toronto had the injury luck of Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, etc last year they would have comfortably missed the playoffs.


Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.
eyeatoma wrote:You guys still dont' get it. Playoff accomplishment don't matter when you're up for your 1st MVP. When you're up for your 3rd in a row, damn straight it matters, as the only ones who done it are top 15 players of all time who have won rings.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#73 » by Roddy B for 3 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:30 pm

Sacramento over seems the easiest on the board
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#74 » by FluLikeSymptoms » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:43 pm

Man these lines are a bit sloppy to me. Lots of money to be made.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#75 » by FluLikeSymptoms » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:44 pm

QingJames wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:Raptors over is far from a lock. They were one of the luckiest teams in the NBA last year with injuries and missed games and have little depth. Almost all of their starters were towards league lead in MPG.

If Toronto had the injury luck of Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, etc last year they would have comfortably missed the playoffs.


Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.

That was an idiotic post. Roger Murdock is too good of a name for that quality of post.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#76 » by jpengland » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:44 pm

advent11 wrote:Mavs being disrespected.


Disagree. 48 is where I'd put them


Defense will normalise. Offense will improve a little with Wood.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#77 » by bisme37 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:46 pm

I don't know how anyone is comfortable betting on any of this lol. An injury happens and the whole thing is immediately wrong.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#78 » by Johnny Bball » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:53 pm

CLE and Raptors look like free money if they are taking bets. Where can I bet this?
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#79 » by Scalabrine » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:57 pm

whitehops wrote:i'd be tempted to take the under on all the bottom 6 teams because there could be some tanking mayhem towards the end of the season, especially if wembanyama has a season deserving of the hype.

this might sound weird but i think the most comfortable over i'd be taking is on sacramento.


I like the Kings team. One or two more depth signings and they're in good shape to be fighting for a play-in spot. I honestly think, barring injuries though, the top of the West is pretty much set with Clippers, Warriors, Suns, Wolves, Grizzlies, Nuggets. Mavs are probably in that conversation too, they are just so much more heavily reliant on Luka that I have them a tier below.

But you are correct that the under should be lower. With the quality of the draft and the quality of the top teams, there are gonna be way more teams below 25 wins. Last year there were 5 teams that won 25 or less. These odds only have one team with 25 or fewer wins.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#80 » by Roger Murdock » Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:07 pm

QingJames wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:Raptors over is far from a lock. They were one of the luckiest teams in the NBA last year with injuries and missed games and have little depth. Almost all of their starters were towards league lead in MPG.

If Toronto had the injury luck of Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, etc last year they would have comfortably missed the playoffs.


Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.


Did you follow last season? Thats barely anything. Most starters missed 15 games last year. The only rotation player who missed an unusual amount of time last year for the Raptors was Anunoby and hes the 4th best guy on the team.

Heat: Butler missed 25. Adebayo 26. Lowry 19. Herro 16.
Bulls: LaVine missed 15. Ball missed 47. Caruso missed 41. PWill missed 60.
Cavs: Garland missed 14. Allen missed 26. Mobley missed 13. Lauri missed 21. Sexton missed 71.
76ers: Missed 61 games out of Harden/Simmons, Embiid missed 14, Green missed 21
Bucks: Giannis missed 15 games, Jrue missed 15, Middleton 16, Portis 10, Allen 16, Pat 17, Lopez 69

You get it. A starter missing 10-15 games last year was par for the course. Raptors had it easy, sans a bit longer hold out from OG.

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