Which teams will regress / under perform 2023

[G R E Y]

One time all star who last played on a winning team in 2017-18.

2018-19.

2018-19 22 Did Not Play (injury—torn right anterior cruciate ligament)

That's... all you got from the response? (Not the best look that stars around him were needed for a winning team or stars without him for that matter).

[HotelVitale]

Atlanta is a very odd inclusion. they already regressed quite a bit last year and made the play in. You think there’s a chance they don’t even make the play in this year? Keep in mind they just added a certified all star guard in the off season. Yea very odd to even suggest there’s a chance they would regress this year.

They lost two shooters in Gallo and Huerter. Plus, we have yet to see how Trae/Murray is going to work.

their biggest weakness was defense and they greatly improved on that front. They have plenty of shooting already. Getting rid of Gallo and Huerter is a massive plus for this team.

I think it's very unlikely since the bar was low from last year (barely over .500), but it's possible they'll disappoint relative to expectations. Murray is a nice player without a doubt but his best quality recently was ball dominance and volume creation and Trae's maybe the worst possible partner for that. And Murray could be really shaky as a cog next to Trae, not just the 3pt shooting (which could easily be rough) but also the spacing for Trae. And I never loved Huerter but having a reliable volume shooter who can handle some shouldn't be taken for granted.

I think it'll be fine and the team will improve, but if people are thinking 'they added a 21/8/9 all-star and only lost Huerter' there could be some disappointment.

[durden_tyler]

Suns and Heat. Previously West and East contenders (maybe title contenders), they will be replaced by the Mavericks/Clippers and Hawks/Sixers in those top spots.

[skones]

Utah will find out that Gobert is a much larger part of their success than they realize. They will miss the playoffs altogether.

Ainge knew that. They're totally punting the present & stockpiling picks. If they wanted to compete yet, Beverly wouldn't have just been sent to LALA land.

+ Mitchell is being shopped til someone budges on more draft capital.

Yeah, if anything Utah is the one team who *did* realize how big Gobert was to their success. A crash back to Earth may be surprising to some other teams (or more likely some other teams' fans) but Utah is well aware that replacing Gobert with Walker Kessler isn't going to be meaningless.

I'm not convinced Mitchell ACTUALLY ends up elsewhere.

[shakes0]

They lost two shooters in Gallo and Huerter. Plus, we have yet to see how Trae/Murray is going to work.

their biggest weakness was defense and they greatly improved on that front. They have plenty of shooting already. Getting rid of Gallo and Huerter is a massive plus for this team.

I think it's very unlikely since the bar was low from last year (barely over .500), but it's possible they'll disappoint relative to expectations. Murray is a nice player without a doubt but his best quality recently was ball dominance and volume creation and Trae's maybe the worst possible partner for that. And Murray could be really shaky as a cog next to Trae, not just the 3pt shooting (which could easily be rough) but also the spacing for Trae. And I never loved Huerter but having a reliable volume shooter who can handle some shouldn't be taken for granted.

I think it'll be fine and the team will improve, but if people are thinking 'they added a 21/8/9 all-star and only lost Huerter' there could be some disappointment.

The Trae/Murray pairing works best when Trae is moving off the ball. He vowed to work on that this summer so we'll see. In his career he has so far added something to his game every off season so I expect him to be a much better off the ball player this year.

As for having a reliable volume shooter who can handle the ball we already have that in Bogi. seems like people are forgetting he exists.

[TravisScott55]

Heat

[zeebneeb]

Injuries are such a huge factor. Gallinari just limped off the court in Italy with what could be a serious knee injury. That's one rotation player less for the Celtics.

There will be other injuries to other teams. If Embiid misses serious time, you can forget about the Sixers' season. Same with Luka in Dallas or Giannis in Milwaukee.

On the other hand, you never know what unheralded player will step up and help his team win 5-6 games more than the predictions, like Jordan Poole for the Warriors. The line between stars and journeymen isn't that great in the NBA. A young player who puts in some hard work in the offseason and gets some swagger from early successes can make a big difference. For example, no one picks the Pistons to do anything but if some of their talented young players show up they could win 45 games.

I've found that the older I get, the more patient I become with players, and teams. Looking back at some of my predictions from when I was younger, its obvious how many little things I missed, but would not get by me so easily today.

There is indeed a very thin line between the stars, and the others in the NBA, and I've often wondered if some players were given the keys, how they would perform, instead of just being a "rotation piece".

I appreciate your vote of confidence in my hometown team,(Pistons) and I myself could see it finally starting to come together, but they are an exceedingly young group of players, and that usually does not denote success in the NBA. The bright spot is that they have some really good vets(Olynyk, Noel, Burks, Cojo, McGruder)to help them figure it out, and Cade looks really special.

As for injuries, there are a few teams that rely so heavily on one player (Dallas) that if that player goes down for even a moderate amount of time, they are cooked. The NBA has really high parity at the moment, and losing games this year is going to be very easy. Super competitive season coming up, everyone fighting for scraps.

[dhsilv2]

Obviously lots of teams are looking to improve in the win column this season. For that to happen, those wins need to come from elsewhere. So which teams do you think will regress or underperform this season compared to last?

The most obvious ones are the Utah Jazz as they’re selling off for a rebuild and Pacers for similar reasons. But beyond that, if you look around the league, most of the playoff teams and non playoff teams from last year are hoping for a step forward this year.

Let’s look at the good teams that should be obviously better in regular season wins:
LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Atlanta Hawks
Brooklyn Nets
Orlando Magic

These teams all got all-star level players via trade, draft or back from injury, so that will have a major impact in the wins column.

So which teams will actually regress compared to last year? Who didn’t do enough this off season to even maintain their status quo?

Heat? Lost tucker? But still have good young talent.
Mavericks lost their top 2 scorer, but added a center and Luka looks in shape.
Memphis? Did they over perform? But they’re team is so young and talented.

Hard to see where the wins come from, which playoff teams will regress?

Lakers imo are the most likely to be worse pending a westbrook deal that really makes an impact.