NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (part 4 - The Final MVP Countdown!)

[moderndarwin]

Should be:

Giannis
Steph
Embiid
Joker
AD

[Wolfgang630]

Steph’s MVP days are most likely over

[eyeatoma]

The entire premise of that "advanced stats" argument is flawed.

Here's the top 20 VORP

1. Nikola Jokić • DEN 7.5
2. Luka Dončić • DAL 6.0
3. Joel Embiid • PHI 4.9
4. Jimmy Butler • MIA 4.6
5. Damian Lillard • POR 4.6
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 4.6
7. Jayson Tatum • BOS 4.3
8. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 4.3
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 4.3
10. Tyrese Haliburton • IND 4.2
11. Domantas Sabonis • SAC 4.2
12. Julius Randle • NYK 3.9
13. James Harden • PHI 3.7
14. Stephen Curry • GSW 3.7
15. Ja Morant • MEM 3.6
16. Kevin Durant • TOT 3.5
17. LeBron James • LAL 3.5
18. Jalen Brunson • NYK 3.3
19. Lauri Markkanen • UTA 3.1
20. Anthony Davis • LAL 3.0

Here's the top 20 PER

1. Nikola Jokić • DEN 31.4
2. Joel Embiid • PHI 30.9
3. Luka Dončić • DAL 29.6
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 28.4
5. Anthony Davis • LAL 28.1
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 27.3
7. Damian Lillard • POR 27.3
8. Jimmy Butler • MIA 26.8
9. Kevin Durant • TOT 26.6
10. Stephen Curry • GSW 24.8
11. LeBron James • LAL 24.2
12. Kawhi Leonard • LAC 24.0
13. Ja Morant • MEM 23.8
14. Tyrese Haliburton • IND 23.8
15. Jayson Tatum • BOS 23.7
16. Domantas Sabonis • SAC 23.2
17. Kristaps Porziņģis • WAS 22.9
18. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 22.8
19. Devin Booker • PHO 22.7
20. James Harden • PHI 22.7

Here's the top 20 scoring (which everyone is building embiid's case on)

1. Joel Embiid • PHI 33.4
2. Luka Dončić • DAL 33.0
3. Damian Lillard • POR 32.1
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 31.2
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 31.2
6. Jayson Tatum • BOS 30.3
7. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 27.7
8. Kyrie Irving • TOT 27.2
9. Ja Morant • MEM 27.1
10. Trae Young • ATL 26.7
11. Jaylen Brown • BOS 26.4
12. De'Aaron Fox • SAC 25.5
13. Lauri Markkanen • UTA 25.4
14. Julius Randle • NYK 25.2
15. DeMar DeRozan • CHI 24.9
16. Anthony Edwards • MIN 24.8
17. Zach LaVine • CHI 24.7
18. Nikola Jokić • DEN 24.5
19. Pascal Siakam • TOR 24.4
20. Jalen Brunson • NYK 23.8

Where are all these scrubs that advanced stats are propping up?

The scrubs are on RAPTOR.

The last one you listed is scoring, not an advanced stat.

[eyeatoma]

Lol

Read on Twitter

?t=RBrERl-Jev0bp_sDv3m5ug&s=19

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

[cupcakesnake]

Just wanted to give a brief toast to the most toxic MVP discourse that I can ever remember as a fan.

I totally get that people feel resistant to awarding 3 straight MVPs to someone who has not yet proven they are Michael Jordan. I also get that there are 2-5 other guys having MVP-level seasons. But the mental gymnastics people have gone through all year long has been exhausting.
- The racism thing sucked. It is important to examine racial bias in NBA media. A player averaging a triple-double and never missing shots on a 1 seed... probably isn't the best platform to do that on.
- Questioning what goes into advanced stats and what they tell us about players is a good thing. However, when a player is averaging a triple-double and not missing shots on a 1 ssed... it's probably not the best time to quibble over VORP.
- It's good to shine a light on other players. Embiid and Giannis are definite MVP-level players. Luka, Tatum, and Lillard are doing MVP-level things this year. Jokic fans did not need to spend the past year yelling at anyone who brought them. Your guy is averaging a triple-double and not missing shots on a 1 seed. There's no need to be insecure. Enjoy this moment and ignore the haters.
- On the flip side: people trying to poke holes in Jokic's MVP case... just stop. The man is averaging a triple-double and not missing shots on a 1 seed. You look absolutely silly trying to convince people that someone having a season like that shouldn't be the MVP.

The whole MVP discourse has been like that parable about the blind mice trying to figure out what an elephant is. People post single points on twitter and realgm and ignore the big picture. There's an NBA basketball player averaging a triple-double, hitting every shot, on a 1 seed. There's no conspiracy, agenda, or sneaky clever way to reframe the discussion or move the goal posts around. Jokic checks every single MVP box that has ever been invented.

It's wild that we have a season like that and at the same time, we have Giannis being one of the greatest 2-way performers ever, and Embiid putting up one of the most efficient volume-scoring seasons ever while also being an elite rim protector. This season is awesome! Instead we get armies of online reactionaries trying to tear down Jokic or Embiid (why not both? maybe they're both literal trash? Why not? Maybe you're all both right!)

It's wild to me that we spent a whole season spewing venom at each other over a guy averaging a triple-double and hitting every shot on a 1 seed. This is a season we're probably going to look at decades later and be like wtf was that?

[Sharkboy242]

This tirade that philly fans are going on to try and devalue advanced stats is just pathetic. It’s literally anti-science. Anti-science folk love to point out an anecdote and run with it as factual, which is why their having a field day with this Spurs game. If there’s noise in the data (e.g. bad player representation in RAPTOR) that doesn’t mean the data is junk. And besides, who is staking all their claim on just one catch-all metric? Those things are being looked at in totality and being interpreted through context.

If robots—independent of any human input—anonymously picked the past 20 MVPs based on the average of a dozen or so catch-all metrics, do people think these would all be bad choices with a significant amount of divergence from the real winners? Let me give you a hint: they wouldn’t. They would come close to picking as humans do. Mathematical models drive our world. Physics and engineering weren’t developed through feelings and eye tests, believe it or not. Its so sad seeing analytically illiterate people having such loud voices. But its not surprising. Their trying to scream their way into MVP like babies.

If Embiid wants to win MVP, then earn it. Thats all im saying. You can make an unequivocal argument when the numbers back up your case. Stop with the victimhood and disingenuous framing of everything. A lot of players play well enough to earn an MVP, but its not a participation trophy.

[Sixerscan]

Lol

Read on Twitter

?t=RBrERl-Jev0bp_sDv3m5ug&s=19

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

There’s a weird thing going on where everyone acknowledged that DBPM was a flawed stat for a long time (see Duncan and KG being the examples there), but then when people realized RPM wasn’t very good people just went back to using BPM as opposed to just acknowledging we don’t have good public-facing all-in-one defensive metrics at this time. Not sure how that happened. Nor how Nate Silver became an authority on the NBA.

[antonac]

The entire premise of that "advanced stats" argument is flawed.

Here's the top 20 VORP

1. Nikola Jokić • DEN 7.5
2. Luka Dončić • DAL 6.0
3. Joel Embiid • PHI 4.9
4. Jimmy Butler • MIA 4.6
5. Damian Lillard • POR 4.6
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 4.6
7. Jayson Tatum • BOS 4.3
8. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 4.3
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 4.3
10. Tyrese Haliburton • IND 4.2
11. Domantas Sabonis • SAC 4.2
12. Julius Randle • NYK 3.9
13. James Harden • PHI 3.7
14. Stephen Curry • GSW 3.7
15. Ja Morant • MEM 3.6
16. Kevin Durant • TOT 3.5
17. LeBron James • LAL 3.5
18. Jalen Brunson • NYK 3.3
19. Lauri Markkanen • UTA 3.1
20. Anthony Davis • LAL 3.0

Here's the top 20 PER

1. Nikola Jokić • DEN 31.4
2. Joel Embiid • PHI 30.9
3. Luka Dončić • DAL 29.6
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 28.4
5. Anthony Davis • LAL 28.1
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 27.3
7. Damian Lillard • POR 27.3
8. Jimmy Butler • MIA 26.8
9. Kevin Durant • TOT 26.6
10. Stephen Curry • GSW 24.8
11. LeBron James • LAL 24.2
12. Kawhi Leonard • LAC 24.0
13. Ja Morant • MEM 23.8
14. Tyrese Haliburton • IND 23.8
15. Jayson Tatum • BOS 23.7
16. Domantas Sabonis • SAC 23.2
17. Kristaps Porziņģis • WAS 22.9
18. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 22.8
19. Devin Booker • PHO 22.7
20. James Harden • PHI 22.7

Here's the top 20 scoring (which everyone is building embiid's case on)

1. Joel Embiid • PHI 33.4
2. Luka Dončić • DAL 33.0
3. Damian Lillard • POR 32.1
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 31.2
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 31.2
6. Jayson Tatum • BOS 30.3
7. Donovan Mitchell • CLE 27.7
8. Kyrie Irving • TOT 27.2
9. Ja Morant • MEM 27.1
10. Trae Young • ATL 26.7
11. Jaylen Brown • BOS 26.4
12. De'Aaron Fox • SAC 25.5
13. Lauri Markkanen • UTA 25.4
14. Julius Randle • NYK 25.2
15. DeMar DeRozan • CHI 24.9
16. Anthony Edwards • MIN 24.8
17. Zach LaVine • CHI 24.7
18. Nikola Jokić • DEN 24.5
19. Pascal Siakam • TOR 24.4
20. Jalen Brunson • NYK 23.8

Where are all these scrubs that advanced stats are propping up?

The scrubs are on RAPTOR.

The last one you listed is scoring, not an advanced stat.

Cool, so what's the excuse for the actual advanced stats the NBA use?

Yeah I would have thought "here's the scoring top 20" would have been the clue there. It was given because it's basically the same players.

That article was basically an ode to ignorance.

[eyeatoma]

Just wanted to give a brief toast to the most toxic MVP discourse that I can ever remember as a fan.

I totally get that people feel resistant to awarding 3 straight MVPs to someone who has not yet proven they are Michael Jordan. I also get that there are 2-5 other guys having MVP-level seasons. But the mental gymnastics people have gone through all year long has been exhausting.
- The racism thing sucked. It is important to examine racial bias in NBA media. A player averaging a triple-double and never missing shots on a 1 seed... probably isn't the best platform to do that on.
- Questioning what goes into advanced stats and what they tell us about players is a good thing. However, when a player is averaging a triple-double and not missing shots on a 1 ssed... it's probably not the best time to quibble over VORP.
- It's good to shine a light on other players. Embiid and Giannis are definite MVP-level players. Luka, Tatum, and Lillard are doing MVP-level things this year. Jokic fans did not need to spend the past year yelling at anyone who brought them. Your guy is averaging a triple-double and not missing shots on a 1 seed. There's no need to be insecure. Enjoy this moment and ignore the haters.
- On the flip side: people trying to poke holes in Jokic's MVP case... just stop. The man is averaging a triple-double and not missing shots on a 1 seed. You look absolutely silly trying to convince people that someone having a season like that shouldn't be the MVP.

The whole MVP discourse has been like that parable about the blind mice trying to figure out what an elephant is. People post single points on twitter and realgm and ignore the big picture. There's an NBA basketball player averaging a triple-double, hitting every shot, on a 1 seed. There's no conspiracy, agenda, or sneaky clever way to reframe the discussion or move the goal posts around. Jokic checks every single MVP box that has ever been invented.

It's wild that we have a season like that and at the same time, we have Giannis being one of the greatest 2-way performers ever, and Embiid putting up one of the most efficient volume-scoring seasons ever while also being an elite rim protector. This season is awesome! Instead we get armies of online reactionaries trying to tear down Jokic or Embiid (why not both? maybe they're both literal trash? Why not? Maybe you're all both right!)

It's wild to me that we spent a whole season spewing venom at each other over a guy averaging a triple-double and hitting every shot on a 1 seed. This is a season we're probably going to look at decades later and be like wtf was that?

In defense, the Nuggets have been underwhelming for the last few weeks. Also I'm not all that impressed by the #1 seed in a terrible conference. The West pales in comparison to the East and it's not very close.

Jokic will still probably win, but aren't you bored with that? We going to look bsck on the 2020s and is it really going to be 6 or 7 MVPs for Jokic in a decade? He's not that much better to get that level of recognition. Giannis is widely considered the best player in the league and hell only have 2 MVPs.

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[eyeatoma]

The entire premise of that "advanced stats" argument is flawed.

Here's the top 20 VORP


Here's the top 20 PER



Here's the top 20 scoring (which everyone is building embiid's case on)



Where are all these scrubs that advanced stats are propping up?

The scrubs are on RAPTOR.

The last one you listed is scoring, not an advanced stat.

Cool, so what's the excuse for the actual advanced stats the NBA use?

Yeah I would have thought "here's the scoring top 20" would have been the clue there. It was given because it's basically the same players.

That article was basically an ode to ignorance.

Morey has said the actual advanced stats that the public doesn't have access to says things are a little different.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

[eyeatoma]

Lol

Read on Twitter

?t=RBrERl-Jev0bp_sDv3m5ug&s=19

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

There’s a weird thing going on where everyone acknowledged that DBPM was a flawed stat for a long time (see Duncan and KG being the examples there), but then when people realized RPM wasn’t very good people just went back to using BPM as opposed to just acknowledging we don’t have good public-facing all-in-one defensive metrics at this time. Not sure how that happened. Nor how Nate Silver became an authority on the NBA.

The reason advanced stats are held in such high regards is because a lot of the media have made their careers on analyzing this. For them to come to grips that their life's work is a bit of a sham is why they can't let go of the reigns.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

[eyeatoma]

This tirade that philly fans are going on to try and devalue advanced stats is just pathetic. It’s literally anti-science. Anti-science folk love to point out an anecdote and run with it as factual, which is why their having a field day with this Spurs game. If there’s noise in the data (e.g. bad player representation in RAPTOR) that doesn’t mean the data is junk. And besides, who is staking all their claim on just one catch-all metric? Those things are being looked at in totality and being interpreted through context.

If robots—independent of any human input—anonymously picked the past 20 MVPs based on the average of a dozen or so catch-all metrics, do people think these would all be bad choices with a significant amount of divergence from the real winners? Let me give you a hint: they wouldn’t. They would come close to picking as humans do. Mathematical models drive our world. Physics and engineering weren’t developed through feelings and eye tests, believe it or not. Its so sad seeing analytically illiterate people having such loud voices. But its not surprising. Their trying to scream their way into MVP like babies.

If Embiid wants to win MVP, then earn it. Thats all im saying. You can make an unequivocal argument when the numbers back up your case. Stop with the victimhood and disingenuous framing of everything. A lot of players play well enough to earn an MVP, but its not a participation trophy.

Lol this is not science, please. Stop trying to make this an argument like actual scientific issues like climate change.

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[Cubbies2120]

Lol

Read on Twitter

?t=RBrERl-Jev0bp_sDv3m5ug&s=19

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

There’s a weird thing going on where everyone acknowledged that DBPM was a flawed stat for a long time (see Duncan and KG being the examples there), but then when people realized RPM wasn’t very good people just went back to using BPM as opposed to just acknowledging we don’t have good public-facing all-in-one defensive metrics at this time. Not sure how that happened. Nor how Nate Silver became an authority on the NBA.

The reason advanced stats are held in such high regards is because a lot of the media have made their careers on analyzing this. For them to come to grips that their life's work is a bit of a sham is why they can't let go of the reigns.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

The reason advanced stats / analytics are a big part of all sports is because...they help teams win. Look at the most recent dynasty, for example...

https://the-cauldron.com/understanding-the-data-the-golden-state-warriors-and-the-role-of-analytics-37c1b387c7b1

https://www.sfexaminer.com/archives/how-the-warriors-use-data-analytics-to-engineer-more-wins/article_c2565040-6887-5f50-a6f4-47ec0efc4758.html

Nobody is saying that ONE advanced stat is perfect. But when you look across a large # of them, and they're telling you the same thing...it's difficult to discount it. Add onto it the traditional stats as well and Jokic is in a league of his own.

Go tell any GM in the league "Advanced stats are worthless" and they'll laugh in your face. But what do they know

[Exp0sed]

Watch on YouTube

funny how Portis sees Lopez as the DPOY
and not Giannis, hmm

[Sharkboy242]

This tirade that philly fans are going on to try and devalue advanced stats is just pathetic. It’s literally anti-science. Anti-science folk love to point out an anecdote and run with it as factual, which is why their having a field day with this Spurs game. If there’s noise in the data (e.g. bad player representation in RAPTOR) that doesn’t mean the data is junk. And besides, who is staking all their claim on just one catch-all metric? Those things are being looked at in totality and being interpreted through context.

If robots—independent of any human input—anonymously picked the past 20 MVPs based on the average of a dozen or so catch-all metrics, do people think these would all be bad choices with a significant amount of divergence from the real winners? Let me give you a hint: they wouldn’t. They would come close to picking as humans do. Mathematical models drive our world. Physics and engineering weren’t developed through feelings and eye tests, believe it or not. Its so sad seeing analytically illiterate people having such loud voices. But its not surprising. Their trying to scream their way into MVP like babies.

If Embiid wants to win MVP, then earn it. Thats all im saying. You can make an unequivocal argument when the numbers back up your case. Stop with the victimhood and disingenuous framing of everything. A lot of players play well enough to earn an MVP, but its not a participation trophy.

Lol this is not science, please. Stop trying to make this an argument like actual scientific issues like climate change.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

Not what i said.

[Sixerscan]

There’s a weird thing going on where everyone acknowledged that DBPM was a flawed stat for a long time (see Duncan and KG being the examples there), but then when people realized RPM wasn’t very good people just went back to using BPM as opposed to just acknowledging we don’t have good public-facing all-in-one defensive metrics at this time. Not sure how that happened. Nor how Nate Silver became an authority on the NBA.

The reason advanced stats are held in such high regards is because a lot of the media have made their careers on analyzing this. For them to come to grips that their life's work is a bit of a sham is why they can't let go of the reigns.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

The reason advanced stats / analytics are a big part of all sports is because...they help teams win. Look at the most recent dynasty, for example...

https://the-cauldron.com/understanding-the-data-the-golden-state-warriors-and-the-role-of-analytics-37c1b387c7b1

https://www.sfexaminer.com/archives/how-the-warriors-use-data-analytics-to-engineer-more-wins/article_c2565040-6887-5f50-a6f4-47ec0efc4758.html

Nobody is saying that ONE advanced stat is perfect. But when you look across a large # of them, and they're telling you the same thing...it's difficult to discount it. Add onto it the traditional stats as well and Jokic is in a league of his own.

Go tell any GM in the league "Advanced stats are worthless" and they'll laugh in your face. But what do they know

Notice there’s nothing in these articles about evaluating individual players using all in one stats. Teams absolutely use analytics to build strategies, lineups, find the right players the right roles etc. They don’t use these stats that we are talking about in the way they are used in the MVP debate. If they do it’s probably mostly a fun side project.

Citing advanced stats is great, as long as the stat is solid. These all in one metrics, especially the defensive metrics, aren’t. That article that was linked to last page explains the limits of them fairly well. The people that have built their career on this sort of stuff should be leading the charge against them because letting flawed stats like them hang around in the popular discourse makes them look bad. I have a hard time believing anyone with league pass actually thinks Jokic is one of the best defensive players on the sport. Part of making and valuing a good stat is a good smell test.

[Sharkboy242]

The reason advanced stats are held in such high regards is because a lot of the media have made their careers on analyzing this. For them to come to grips that their life's work is a bit of a sham is why they can't let go of the reigns.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

The reason advanced stats / analytics are a big part of all sports is because...they help teams win. Look at the most recent dynasty, for example...

https://the-cauldron.com/understanding-the-data-the-golden-state-warriors-and-the-role-of-analytics-37c1b387c7b1

https://www.sfexaminer.com/archives/how-the-warriors-use-data-analytics-to-engineer-more-wins/article_c2565040-6887-5f50-a6f4-47ec0efc4758.html

Nobody is saying that ONE advanced stat is perfect. But when you look across a large # of them, and they're telling you the same thing...it's difficult to discount it. Add onto it the traditional stats as well and Jokic is in a league of his own.

Go tell any GM in the league "Advanced stats are worthless" and they'll laugh in your face. But what do they know

Notice there’s nothing in these articles about evaluating individual players using all in one stats. Teams absolutely use analytics to build strategies, lineups, find the right players the right roles etc. They don’t use these stats that we are talking about in the way they are used in the MVP debate. If they do it’s probably mostly a fun side project.

Citing advanced stats is great, as long as the stat is solid. These all in one metrics, especially the defensive metrics, aren’t. That article that was linked to last page explains the limits of them fairly well. The people that have built their career on this sort of stuff should be leading the charge against them because letting flawed stats like them hang around in the popular discourse makes them look bad. I have a hard time believing anyone with league pass actually thinks Jokic is one of the best defensive players on the sport. Part of making and valuing a good stat is a good smell test.

The reason those stats paint Jokic as a good defender is because good offense is conducive to good defense. Basketball is not football. We dont pause the game after a make or miss to let the defense set, its a fluid game.

Its not just a magical coincidence. These metrics have a hard time decoupling the two and if you watch the game its easy to understand why thats the case.

[Sixerscan]

The reason advanced stats / analytics are a big part of all sports is because...they help teams win. Look at the most recent dynasty, for example...

https://the-cauldron.com/understanding-the-data-the-golden-state-warriors-and-the-role-of-analytics-37c1b387c7b1

https://www.sfexaminer.com/archives/how-the-warriors-use-data-analytics-to-engineer-more-wins/article_c2565040-6887-5f50-a6f4-47ec0efc4758.html

Nobody is saying that ONE advanced stat is perfect. But when you look across a large # of them, and they're telling you the same thing...it's difficult to discount it. Add onto it the traditional stats as well and Jokic is in a league of his own.

Go tell any GM in the league "Advanced stats are worthless" and they'll laugh in your face. But what do they know

Notice there’s nothing in these articles about evaluating individual players using all in one stats. Teams absolutely use analytics to build strategies, lineups, find the right players the right roles etc. They don’t use these stats that we are talking about in the way they are used in the MVP debate. If they do it’s probably mostly a fun side project.

Citing advanced stats is great, as long as the stat is solid. These all in one metrics, especially the defensive metrics, aren’t. That article that was linked to last page explains the limits of them fairly well. The people that have built their career on this sort of stuff should be leading the charge against them because letting flawed stats like them hang around in the popular discourse makes them look bad. I have a hard time believing anyone with league pass actually thinks Jokic is one of the best defensive players on the sport. Part of making and valuing a good stat is a good smell test.

The reason those stats paint Jokic as a good defender is because good offense is conducive to good defense. Basketball is not football. We dont pause the game after a make or miss to let the defense set, its a fluid game.

Its not just a magical coincidence. These metrics have a hard time decoupling the two and if you watch the game its easy to understand why thats the case.

I don’t know specifically what you are talking about, but the all in one metrics have a hard time accounting for like 100 different variables which is why they shouldn’t be taken so seriously, at least to the point where people are acting like one person being first in a metric and another person being 4th or whatever means the first person is better and on on.

I also don’t get why people cite a bunch of different metrics like they aren’t all having trouble with addressing the same problems.

[Exp0sed]

The reason advanced stats are held in such high regards is because a lot of the media have made their careers on analyzing this. For them to come to grips that their life's work is a bit of a sham is why they can't let go of the reigns.

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

I have a hard time believing anyone with league pass actually thinks Jokic is one of the best defensive players on the sport. Part of making and valuing a good stat is a good smell test.

that's not what his DBPM tells us
it does not tell us he is "one of the best defensive players on the sport"
it tells us his team is conceding dramatically less points when he's on the court, at least in the rs - there's a difference!

that could be (and is) the cummlative effect of many things discussed ad nauseum itt:
you can play great defense but fail to box out \ rebound - resulting in the opponent gaining an exra possesion
so, i would imagine being one of the premier defensive rebounder in the league can help in that regard, right?

how about leading all centers in steals and defelections year after year? does that help?
Jokic probbaly has more kickballs a season than some team rosters have combined
might not seem like much, but it all adds up. offenses with 14 seconds on the clock score less than offenses with the full 24

offensive possession starting after a made basket are much less efficient than those that start after a miss and\or a turnover
Jokic "makes" a lot of baskets for himself and his teammates - it all adds up

there are a 100 indirect some such ways, in which the Nuggets concede less point because of the Joker - and the data shows that clearly year after year

I think it's time to accept that it's just the way it is and stop conflating "defensive impact" with "best defeneder"
the two are usually pretty highly correlated but not in Jokic's case (and no1 is claiming otherwise)

being that good offensively also has immense defensive value, it's no that hard to fathom imo :p

btw Jokic is also calling out opponents plays and directing traffic (correctly) when he's engaged defensively - he can use his vision on that end, to anticipate certin plays and send a teammave over to the right spot - all those things are encapuslated in these advanced stats, it's real it's not coming out of thin air

Jokic is also elite as mentioned at some "typical" defensive aspects
not just rebounding or deflections, he is also a very good post defender and very good at denying his opponent from getting position in the post etc.

yes, he's severely lacking in a few specific (and important) aspects of defense (duh)
in the rs it doesn't matter, teams aren't trying hard to exploit that and MVP is rs season award

if teams will be able to exploit it in the playoffs it will be reflected in those same numbers you guys are brushing away
how were these same defensive impact metrics for the GS series last year?

they were bad..confirming the eye test
then how come they come out very different in the regular season? be honest and answer that Q to urselves

if that same story repeats itself this post-season, it will surely hurt his "legacy" and overall stock \ atg ranking but it has no bearing on the MVP race!

teams are NOT exploiting him in the rs, maybe it's by choice (fair enough and a valid argument against him) but by choice or not - the end result is Jokic dominating in the rs, consistely, durably and is doing more with his PT to help his teammates win games when he's on the floor than any other competitor - in my world when you couple that type of producion and a high seed - you got urself an MVP

[Doctor MJ]

Notice there’s nothing in these articles about evaluating individual players using all in one stats. Teams absolutely use analytics to build strategies, lineups, find the right players the right roles etc. They don’t use these stats that we are talking about in the way they are used in the MVP debate. If they do it’s probably mostly a fun side project.

Citing advanced stats is great, as long as the stat is solid. These all in one metrics, especially the defensive metrics, aren’t. That article that was linked to last page explains the limits of them fairly well. The people that have built their career on this sort of stuff should be leading the charge against them because letting flawed stats like them hang around in the popular discourse makes them look bad. I have a hard time believing anyone with league pass actually thinks Jokic is one of the best defensive players on the sport. Part of making and valuing a good stat is a good smell test.

The reason those stats paint Jokic as a good defender is because good offense is conducive to good defense. Basketball is not football. We dont pause the game after a make or miss to let the defense set, its a fluid game.

Its not just a magical coincidence. These metrics have a hard time decoupling the two and if you watch the game its easy to understand why thats the case.

I don’t know specifically what you are talking about, but the all in one metrics have a hard time accounting for like 100 different variables which is why they shouldn’t be taken so seriously, at least to the point where people are acting like one person being first in a metric and another person being 4th or whatever means the first person is better and on on.

I also don’t get why people cite a bunch of different metrics like they aren’t all having trouble with addressing the same problems.

I think you're both making great points.

First, you're right: As this is a fluid field team sport, and anything that focuses on individuals only is literally just the tip of the iceberg of what's actually going on, and modern NBA franchises know this full well and don't limit themselves to individual stats like this the way the broader basketball world - dominated by fans and those communicating to fans - does.

But Sharkboy's point is also great: As this is a fluid field sport, while we might perceive specific accomplishments that can be tallied as "offensive" or "defensive", and thus the skills that enabled the achievement to be of one stripe or the other, when you consider the effects on ORtg and DRtg, the lines blur.

A player who gets a steal is performing an action of the defense, but if that steal results in an easy bucket, the net effect will be more about the team's ORtg than DRtg.

And a player who is known by his teammates to be the rainmaker of the offense may result in his teammates saving more energy for defense when the rainmaker is out there, and more for offense when he's not.

This is why I say that the overall Rtg is a much more clear-cut-real thing than ORtg or DRtg, and also why I say that we get ourselves into trouble when we try to dismiss the meaning of part of what the data is saying.

If Jokic is getting great defensive regression numbers despite not actually being good at defense, what it means is that what appears to be defensive impact statistically is actually just more offensive impact.

(To be clear, I think there's a major concern about Jokic's defense in the playoffs, but that's distinct from the regular season context of this thread.)