NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread)

[hardenASG13]

this.
that's a laughable notion, MVP is the most valuable during the course of a season, not per game haha.

not that I think Joe L has been the best per game, there are superstars playing almost every game out there. showing up, even when they're tired, on a back to back, deflated or banged up

this clown ducks the tough game (intentionally!), picks and chooses his opponents and rests and stat pads vs. the Wizards\Pistons tier of teams, in blow outs even when he's injured cuz he wants to keep some worthless streak alive

well before the 65 minimum, games played were weighed heavily in MVP considerations with Walton being the only exception to the new rule anyway. Walton was head and shoulders better per game than his competitors, he was the best player throughout that season even tho he played fewer games

the irony is that Embiid is only causing himself to keep alive the one "streak" that actually matters - the streak of not winning rings and not even making out of the 2nd round, his blatant ducking and stat padding are costing the 76ers in playoff seedings.

if Embiid chose to rest vs. the weaker teams (and the 76ers are stacked and should win those games anyway), he'd have the stamine and health to play in the tougher games, the ones the 76ers really need him for

he really aggravated an injury while stat padding, and now instead of Philly being 2nd in the East (at the very least), they are 3rd with the pack behind them gaining on them

his stat padding might end up costing the 76ers HCA..

Just last game he played he came into the game injured and with Sixers down 30 points, only so that he would have a 30/10 game. So yeah, he's really trying his hardest to squeeze the juice.

I think that with Embiid's rest and injury history, it's becoming unrealstic for him to meet the criteria he's already missed too much.

I think at this point in the race it's a clear race between Jokic and SGA.
still alot of season to play and alot can happen, but as of the first week of 2024 imo it's those two neck to neck.
personally I have Jokic first but they're very close and I wouldn't fault anyone for picking SGA

There are no tough matchups for Embiid, Jokic, SGA, Luka, or any MVP candidate. Check their averages for proof. The stat padding notion is laughable. He sits 4th quarters vs those bad teams alot due to blowouts. He averages 35 per games, against anyone. Where is the stat padding? He accumulates stats, like the other candidates, because he's unstoppable. What are the tough matchups for Embiid, please do share.

Embiid has a long history now. It's clear his body isn't ideally suited for an 82 game grind. He has to sit sometimes. But yeah I don't think he will play 65 games either.

Dude went into the game 30 points down, injured, only to keep his 30/10 streak alive. He plays minutes that he shouldn't, he's in the game when the game is over, he's not always sitting when he's supposed to, he's mostly sitting when he's accumulated enough stats to be satisfied with the output. If you don't think he's looking for every little way to pad his stats, then you're lying to yourself, it's obvious from many of the situations over the season that he does this.

Meanwhile, Jokic is sitting the whole 4th quarters when he's 1 reb/ast away from a triple double, if the game is over.

Embiid has sat a bunch of 4th quarters, often against the teams he's criticized on here for playing against.

He shouldn't have been in there vs the Knicks, I agree. That one instance doesn't make him a stat padder though. Check his game log! He has massive stats every night, regardless of opponent. I just feel people are really reaching here with the stat padding/"ducking" arguments.

[Exp0sed]

Dude went into the game 30 points down, injured, only to keep his 30/10 streak alive. He plays minutes that he shouldn't, he's in the game when the game is over, he's not always sitting when he's supposed to, he's mostly sitting when he's accumulated enough stats to be satisfied with the output. If you don't think he's looking for every little way to pad his stats, then you're lying to yourself, it's obvious from many of the situations over the season that he does this.

Meanwhile, Jokic is sitting the whole 4th quarters when he's 1 reb/ast away from a triple double, if the game is over.

Embiid has sat a bunch of 4th quarters, often against the teams he's criticized on here for playing against.

He shouldn't have been in there vs the Knicks, I agree. That one instance doesn't make him a stat padder though. Check his game log! He has massive stats every night, regardless of opponent. I just feel people are really reaching here with the stat padding/"ducking" arguments.

listen, i've watched countless 76ers games over the last few seasons what ur saying is simply not true
first of all, every player in the league sits out 4th quarters when the game is over and naturally those type of games happen alot vs the weaker teams. Embiid has those games more often because he always plays those and ducks other games, so a higher % of his overall games is against bottom teams, stands to reason he sits out more 4th quarters than his rivals

you wanna see how many gaudy stat lines guys like Giannis or Jokic would have had had they played 4th quarters in blowouts?
that's the same for all superstars

edit: btw that's just the norm now in the NBA, i'm sure if Embiid had a choice he wouldn't sit out those 4 quarters but luckily - it's not up to him.

Embiid def stat pads, in a variety of ways. his favorite way is doing it when he knows it'll be a blow out (and it already is) but it's still like...middle of the 3rd quarter or late in the 3rd
he knows he's gonna be sat out soon so he jacks up alot of shots, when the game is essentially over (but before it's officialy over)

and as for the Knicks game, you know full well the ONLY reason he deviated from sitting out was to keep his worthless "streak" alive
a team with a leader so consumed by personal accolades, to the point he'd risk himself and the team's chances of success for a stupid meaningless stat - is going nowhere.

that's what the Embiid stans fail to realize, the ducking and stat padding (not to mention the flopping and foul baiting) isn't just a bad look - it has consequences.

[Exp0sed]

double post, delete plz.

[hardenASG13]

Dude went into the game 30 points down, injured, only to keep his 30/10 streak alive. He plays minutes that he shouldn't, he's in the game when the game is over, he's not always sitting when he's supposed to, he's mostly sitting when he's accumulated enough stats to be satisfied with the output. If you don't think he's looking for every little way to pad his stats, then you're lying to yourself, it's obvious from many of the situations over the season that he does this.

Meanwhile, Jokic is sitting the whole 4th quarters when he's 1 reb/ast away from a triple double, if the game is over.

Embiid has sat a bunch of 4th quarters, often against the teams he's criticized on here for playing against.

He shouldn't have been in there vs the Knicks, I agree. That one instance doesn't make him a stat padder though. Check his game log! He has massive stats every night, regardless of opponent. I just feel people are really reaching here with the stat padding/"ducking" arguments.

listen, i've watched countless 76ers games over the last few seasons what ur saying is simply not true
first of all, every player in the league sits out 4th quarters when the game is over and naturally those type of games happen alot vs the weaker teams. Embiid has those games more often because he always plays those and ducks other games, so a higher % of his overall games is against bottom teams, stands to reason he sits out more 4th quarters than his rivals

you wanna see how many gaudy stat lines guys like Giannis or Jokic would have had had they played 4th quarters in blowouts?
that's the same for all superstars

edit: btw that's just the norm now in the NBA, i'm sure if Embiid had a choice he wouldn't sit out those 4 quarters but luckily - it's not up to him.

Embiid def stat pads, in a variety of ways. his favorite way is doing it when he knows it'll be a blow out (and it already is) but it's still like...middle of the 3rd quarter or late in the 3rd
he knows he's gonna be sat out soon so he jacks up alot of shots, when the game is essentially over (but before it's officialy over)

and as for the Knicks game, you know full well the ONLY reason he deviated from sitting out was to keep his worthless "streak" alive
a team with a leader so consumed by personal accolades, to the point he'd risk himself and the team's chances of success for a stupid meaningless stat - is going nowhere.

that's what the Embiid stans fail to realize, the ducking and stat padding (not to mention the flopping and foul baiting) isn't just a bad look - it has consequences.

I know it's normal to sit out in blowouts, and haven't argued otherwise. It was in response to him citing Jokic sitting out 4th quarters.

I don't agree he stat pads in the third quarter of games, he simply is doing what he's paid to do- putting a team away in the 3rd quarter. I'm not sure why he can be faulted for that? Like, should he not try to score in those situations? What are you suggesting?

As far as Ducking, I'll reiterate that there isn't a tough matchup for him, as evidenced by game logs. And also restate my point that stars could very well score more against better teams, because the game calls for it, unless you know otherwise? I'm not an embiid "stan", or a Stan of any player, I'm an adult haha. I just think this manufactured argument on here of him stat padding or ducking tough matchup (who has slowed him down exactly?) is ridiculous. I know he shouldn't have been out there vs the Knicks, yes. That was one game.

[dygaction]

Dude went into the game 30 points down, injured, only to keep his 30/10 streak alive. He plays minutes that he shouldn't, he's in the game when the game is over, he's not always sitting when he's supposed to, he's mostly sitting when he's accumulated enough stats to be satisfied with the output. If you don't think he's looking for every little way to pad his stats, then you're lying to yourself, it's obvious from many of the situations over the season that he does this.

Meanwhile, Jokic is sitting the whole 4th quarters when he's 1 reb/ast away from a triple double, if the game is over.

Embiid has sat a bunch of 4th quarters, often against the teams he's criticized on here for playing against.

He shouldn't have been in there vs the Knicks, I agree. That one instance doesn't make him a stat padder though. Check his game log! He has massive stats every night, regardless of opponent. I just feel people are really reaching here with the stat padding/"ducking" arguments.

listen, i've watched countless 76ers games over the last few seasons what ur saying is simply not true
first of all, every player in the league sits out 4th quarters when the game is over and naturally those type of games happen alot vs the weaker teams. Embiid has those games more often because he always plays those and ducks other games, so a higher % of his overall games is against bottom teams, stands to reason he sits out more 4th quarters than his rivals

you wanna see how many gaudy stat lines guys like Giannis or Jokic would have had had they played 4th quarters in blowouts?
that's the same for all superstars

edit: btw that's just the norm now in the NBA, i'm sure if Embiid had a choice he wouldn't sit out those 4 quarters but luckily - it's not up to him.

Embiid def stat pads, in a variety of ways. his favorite way is doing it when he knows it'll be a blow out (and it already is) but it's still like...middle of the 3rd quarter or late in the 3rd
he knows he's gonna be sat out soon so he jacks up alot of shots, when the game is essentially over (but before it's officialy over)

and as for the Knicks game, you know full well the ONLY reason he deviated from sitting out was to keep his worthless "streak" alive
a team with a leader so consumed by personal accolades, to the point he'd risk himself and the team's chances of success for a stupid meaningless stat - is going nowhere.

that's what the Embiid stans fail to realize, the ducking and stat padding (not to mention the flopping and foul baiting) isn't just a bad look - it has consequences.

His missing games this season are 7 Away and 1 Home. After missing @MIN, @NOP, @BOS, he started playing lots games in Dec against @WAS/ATL/WAS/@DET/DET/@CHO including b2b., averaging 24.2 in "+/-". Resting one b2b on DET or @CHO, like what he did for @MIN, would have made lots of sense. 76ers are good enough to bank in those wins.

All these aside, his ardent supporters using Embiid's winning rate and team losing away games against the strongest teams without him as evidence to double down his mvp case is something troubling. That's why I think total games win while the player is on the court should be more telling than winning rate.

[iggymcfrack]

I am surprised by the votes. I haven't been here in a while but right now imo its Embiid and its not close. I am now going to account for "if he plays enough games". As of right now he still qualifies.

I am no jokic hater either, my history will show I had jokic the pass 2 years for MVP and thought embiid crying made him win last year lol.

If I was to bet who wins, sure I don't think embiid will play enough games so I would give it to jokic or SGA. My preseason pick was Ant or SGA.

How is it “Embiid and not close” when he never plays? Whether he’s on a pace to be eligible for a cutoff or not, he’s about to have missed 3x as many games as Jokic, SGA, and Giannis COMBINED.

Sure, in the top rate stats, he ranks 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, but in the stats that account for how much someone’s actually been on the floor, he ranks 4th, 4th, and 5th. And it’s even worse than that because the games he’s missed have been heavily slanted towards the tougher games where the Sixers need him most, hurting his value while also inflating his per minute numbers.

Finally, the Thunder with SGA on the floor and the Nuggets with Jokic on the floor both have a better NetRtg on a per minute basis than the Sixers with Embiid even though he’s played an easier schedule and their teams have been much worse when they’re on the bench than the Sixers with Embiid on the bench.

[Exp0sed]

Embiid has sat a bunch of 4th quarters, often against the teams he's criticized on here for playing against.

He shouldn't have been in there vs the Knicks, I agree. That one instance doesn't make him a stat padder though. Check his game log! He has massive stats every night, regardless of opponent. I just feel people are really reaching here with the stat padding/"ducking" arguments.

I know it's normal to sit out in blowouts, and haven't argued otherwise. It was in response to him citing Jokic sitting out 4th quarters.

I don't agree he stat pads in the third quarter of games, he simply is doing what he's paid to do- putting a team away in the 3rd quarter. I'm not sure why he can be faulted for that? Like, should he not try to score in those situations? What are you suggesting?

As far as Ducking, I'll reiterate that there isn't a tough matchup for him, as evidenced by game logs. And also restate my point that stars could very well score more against better teams, because the game calls for it, unless you know otherwise? I'm not an embiid "stan", or a Stan of any player, I'm an adult haha. I just think this manufactured argument on here of him stat padding or ducking tough matchup (who has slowed him down exactly?) is ridiculous. I know he shouldn't have been out there vs the Knicks, yes. That was one game.

I didn't say you personally were a Stan, I know you aren't I was speaking in general about Embiid stans itt

as for the ducking and stat padding we'll agree to disagree. i've seen it so many times from him...
it's not just in blowouts it's also when being blown out (which happens less often obviously but still happens from time to time)

no, he shouldn't make a concerted effort not to score when the game is already out of hand but it shouldn't be the other way around either and it is.

[mpoo_sin]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Rating Breakdown:

Last 5 Games: 109.0 (3rd)
Last 10 Games: 110.8 (3rd)
Last 20 Games (Since Nov. 30): 113.9 (10th)
First 17 Games (Before Nov. 30): 117.3 (24th)
Whole Season: 115.5 (17th)

I see progress. And do not forget: Irving missed a lot of time and Lively and Exum have now also missed extended stretches. This teams trajectory is by no means pointing down so why are people here so pessimistic?

[Exp0sed]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Rating Breakdown:

Last 5 Games: 109.0 (3rd)
Last 10 Games: 110.8 (3rd)
Last 20 Games (Since Nov. 30): 113.9 (10th)
First 17 Games (Before Nov. 30): 117.3 (24th)
Whole Season: 115.5 (17th)

I see progress. And do not forget: Irving missed a lot of time and Lively and Exum have now also missed extended stretches. This teams trajectory is by no means pointing down so why are people here so pessimistic?

Honestly Luka has been impressive on D, showing some real growth
he's def in the race, I don't think a few less wins should be the obstacle for him to win it, especially as he's playing with a worse cast than most of his counterparts but the reality is, the narrative for him just isn't there yet. he'd need to create some real seperation and when you have guys playing at the level Jokic and SGA are playing (and to a lesser extent Giannis, Embiid etc.) - it's gonna be very hard to create that seperation

he's also prone to some resting and minor injuries, he's missed just 4 games this season but I fully expect him to miss time eventually, with this or that. those few extra games mean alot in a tight race.

hard to envision the Mavs finishing the season above the Thunder or the Nuggets, no?
so, if he won't create real seperation from his competitors, be a lower seed while playing fewer games, it'd be kind of hard to give him the award, right? I think that's where the "pessimism" is coming from, but I think 99% of ppl see how great and valuble he is.

[mpoo_sin]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Rating Breakdown:

Last 5 Games: 109.0 (3rd)
Last 10 Games: 110.8 (3rd)
Last 20 Games (Since Nov. 30): 113.9 (10th)
First 17 Games (Before Nov. 30): 117.3 (24th)
Whole Season: 115.5 (17th)

I see progress. And do not forget: Irving missed a lot of time and Lively and Exum have now also missed extended stretches. This teams trajectory is by no means pointing down so why are people here so pessimistic?

Honestly Luka has been impressive on D, showing some real growth
he's def in the race, I don't think a few less wins should be the obstacle for him to win it, especially as he's playing with a worse cast than most of his counterparts but the reality is, the narrative for him just isn't there yet. he'd need to create some real seperation and when you have guys playing at the level Jokic and SGA are playing (and to a lesser extent Giannis, Embiid etc.) - it's gonna be very hard to create that seperation

he's also prone to some resting and minor injuries, he's missed just 4 games this season but I fully expect him to miss time eventually, with this or that. those few extra games mean alot in a tight race.

hard to envision the Mavs finishing the season above the Thunder or the Nuggets, no?
so, if he won't create real seperation from his competitors, be a lower seed while playing fewer games, it'd be kind of hard to give him the award, right? I think that's where the "pessimism" is coming from, but I think 99% of ppl see how great and valuble he is.

Well...regarding your potential injury concerns, i say "knock on wood!"
I watch the Mavericks very closely and what is apparent is that Doncic seems to have something aching him somewhere all the time.
Yet, he rarely misses time because of that. But i agree that there should be at least some concern in regards to the litany of little ailments (neck, back, thigh (left), calf (left), ankle (left/right). Most worrisome is his ongoing left thigh issue that he is now dealing with since last march. And also at the end of the Timberwolves game he was clearly hobbled by his suddenly swollen ankle with what he missed the game on Friday against the travesty of a team. I initially thought that they just made **** up to give him a night off, but if someone would like to check back to the end of the game against the Wolves, he was clearly in a lot of pain.

And to the standings. I do not think that he has to leapfrog OKC or DEN. They just have to keep it close. If the Mavs finish 3rd with 4 less wins than the 1st seed and Doncic keeps dropping his wtf-games and highlight moments left and right, then he can absolutely win the Award. It is still a long season and we still have 5 absolute legitimate MVP-horses in the race. Truly great...normally at that point in the season it is a race between 3 guys at most.

[CobraCommander]

Is jokic still an option or did he retire ?

[iggymcfrack]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Rating Breakdown:

Last 5 Games: 109.0 (3rd)
Last 10 Games: 110.8 (3rd)
Last 20 Games (Since Nov. 30): 113.9 (10th)
First 17 Games (Before Nov. 30): 117.3 (24th)
Whole Season: 115.5 (17th)

I see progress. And do not forget: Irving missed a lot of time and Lively and Exum have now also missed extended stretches. This teams trajectory is by no means pointing down so why are people here so pessimistic?

Ok so the defense has gotten better. Well the offense has obviously gotten worse by a similar amount or else their record and point differential wouldn’t be getting worse. I remember them being 5th in offense early in the season. Now they’re 10th. They rank 7th in SRS in the West between Houston and Golden State. Honestly I think the 6 seed is optimistic. I’d expect them to finish in the play-in.

Basically OKC, Denver, Minnesota, and the Clippers have been the top 4 teams in the West this season and there seems to be a bit of a gap. They’re going to take 4 of the 6 guaranteed playoff spots. So then for the other 2 spots you have New Orleans, Sacramento, Dallas, the Lakers, Houston, Golden State, and Phoenix all fighting for the 5-11 spots.

I don’t see any of those teams as having a meaningful edge on the others with the possible exception of New Orleans. So basically, 2 teams are going to finish in the 5/6, 4 will finish in the play-in, and 1 will miss the play-in altogether. I’d give Dallas around a 28% chance to finish with a top 6 seed, a 58% chance to be in the play-in, and a 14% chance to miss the field altogether. A 6 seed seems more like an optimistic hope than a pessimistic estimate.

[Exp0sed]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Well...regarding your potential injury concerns, i say "knock on wood!"
I watch the Mavericks very closely and what is apparent that Doncic seems to have something aching him somewhere all the time.
Yet, he rarely misses time because of that. But i agree that there should be at least some concern in regards to the litany of little ailments (neck, back, thigh (left), calf (left), ankle (left/right). Most worrisome is his ongoing left thigh issue that he is now dealing with since last march. And also at the end of the Timberwolves game he was clearly hobbled by his suddenly swollen ankle with what he missed the game on Friday against the travesty of a team. I initially thought that they just made **** up to give him a night off, but if someone would like to check back to the end of the game against the Wolves, he was clearly in a lot of pain.

And to the standings. I do not think that he has to leapfrog OKC or DEN. They just have to keep it close. If the Mavs finish 3rd with 4 less wins than the 1st seed and Doncic keeps dropping his wtf-games and highlight moments left and right, then he can absolutely win the Award. It is still a long season and we have still 5 absolute legitimate MVP-horses in the race. Truly great...normally at that point in the season it is a race between 3 guys at most.

obviously he's used to playing banged up but the reality is that between minor injuries and rest, he has played in 66 games last season, 65 in 2022 and 66 the season before that, he's not as durable as some of the other candidates

they'd want him as healthy as they can for the playoffs as well, so he's bound to sit some out imo
and it'd be near impossible for him to win wit 65-67 games if Jokic, SGA etc..play 5 or 10 more games.

[AleksandarN]

No it wouldn't. If you're on the same tier of contribution as someone else but you miss 20+ games in a season, you can't be more valuable when you had 0 impact for those 20+ games.

this.
that's a laughable notion, MVP is the most valuable during the course of a season, not per game haha.

not that I think Joe L has been the best per game, there are superstars playing almost every game out there. showing up, even when they're tired, on a back to back, deflated or banged up

this clown ducks the tough game (intentionally!), picks and chooses his opponents and rests and stat pads vs. the Wizards\Pistons tier of teams, in blow outs even when he's injured cuz he wants to keep some worthless streak alive

well before the 65 minimum, games played were weighed heavily in MVP considerations with Walton being the only exception to the new rule anyway. Walton was head and shoulders better per game than his competitors, he was the best player throughout that season even tho he played fewer games

the irony is that Embiid is only causing himself to keep alive the one "streak" that actually matters - the streak of not winning rings and not even making out of the 2nd round, his blatant ducking and stat padding are costing the 76ers in playoff seedings.

if Embiid chose to rest vs. the weaker teams (and the 76ers are stacked and should win those games anyway), he'd have the stamine and health to play in the tougher games, the ones the 76ers really need him for

he really aggravated an injury while stat padding, and now instead of Philly being 2nd in the East (at the very least), they are 3rd with the pack behind them gaining on them

his stat padding might end up costing the 76ers HCA..

I think that with Embiid's rest and injury history, it's becoming unrealstic for him to meet the criteria he's already missed too much.

I think at this point in the race it's a clear race between Jokic and SGA.
still alot of season to play and alot can happen, but as of the first week of 2024 imo it's those two neck to neck.
personally I have Jokic first but they're very close and I wouldn't fault anyone for picking SGA

There are no tough matchups for Embiid, Jokic, SGA, Luka, or any MVP candidate. Check their averages for proof. The stat padding notion is laughable. He sits 4th quarters vs those bad teams alot due to blowouts. He averages 35 per games, against anyone. Where is the stat padding? He accumulates stats, like the other candidates, because he's unstoppable. What are the tough matchups for Embiid, please do share.

Embiid has a long history now. It's clear his body isn't ideally suited for an 82 game grind. He has to sit sometimes. But yeah I don't think he will play 65 games either.

So embiid playing in the fourth getting blown out by 35 points with 4:51 minutes left in the fourth is not stat padding? Are you serious lol. Dude was chasing 30 points. On top of that he was injuried that game and STILL played the fourth in order to chase stats.

[CobraCommander]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Rating Breakdown:

Last 5 Games: 109.0 (3rd)
Last 10 Games: 110.8 (3rd)
Last 20 Games (Since Nov. 30): 113.9 (10th)
First 17 Games (Before Nov. 30): 117.3 (24th)
Whole Season: 115.5 (17th)

I see progress. And do not forget: Irving missed a lot of time and Lively and Exum have now also missed extended stretches. This teams trajectory is by no means pointing down so why are people here so pessimistic?

Honestly Luka has been impressive on D, showing some real growth
he's def in the race, I don't think a few less wins should be the obstacle for him to win it, especially as he's playing with a worse cast than most of his counterparts but the reality is, the narrative for him just isn't there yet. he'd need to create some real seperation and when you have guys playing at the level Jokic and SGA are playing (and to a lesser extent Giannis, Embiid etc.) - it's gonna be very hard to create that seperation

he's also prone to some resting and minor injuries, he's missed just 4 games this season but I fully expect him to miss time eventually, with this or that. those few extra games mean alot in a tight race.

hard to envision the Mavs finishing the season above the Thunder or the Nuggets, no?
so, if he won't create real seperation from his competitors, be a lower seed while playing fewer games, it'd be kind of hard to give him the award, right? I think that's where the "pessimism" is coming from, but I think 99% of ppl see how great and valuble he is.

Well...regarding your potential injury concerns, i say "knock on wood!"
I watch the Mavericks very closely and what is apparent that Doncic seems to have something aching him somewhere all the time.
Yet, he rarely misses time because of that. But i agree that there should be at least some concern in regards to the litany of little ailments (neck, back, thigh (left), calf (left), ankle (left/right). Most worrisome is his ongoing left thigh issue that he is now dealing with since last march. And also at the end of the Timberwolves game he was clearly hobbled by his suddenly swollen ankle with what he missed the game on Friday against the travesty of a team. I initially thought that they just made **** up to give him a night off, but if someone would like to check back to the end of the game against the Wolves, he was clearly in a lot of pain.

And to the standings. I do not think that he has to leapfrog OKC or DEN. They just have to keep it close. If the Mavs finish 3rd with 4 less wins than the 1st seed and Doncic keeps dropping his wtf-games and highlight moments left and right, then he can absolutely win the Award. It is still a long season and we have still 5 absolute legitimate MVP-horses in the race. Truly great...normally at that point in the season it is a race between 3 guys at most.

I think Luka has to finish ahead of SGA to beat SGA in mvp voting - I do agree he has been much better on defense when challenged. With Kyrie back the WTF games are going to happen a lot less often and SGA has been matching him there.

Giannis losses ground everytime the bucks lose. The bucks roster and coaching isn’t that good- Middleton is a shell of himself and dame is a defensive disaster.

Jokic is back in the drivers seat -

No one is out of it but he is consistently the best and Giannis has had the best high light games - Embiid is hurt hurt hurt and it’s hurting him- sga and Luka chugging along lurking like hell. This is going to be a epic race to the end

[AleksandarN]

Stop doing drugs Serbia

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Some are pissed Jokic skipped the national team this summer.

[mpoo_sin]

Well...regarding your potential injury concerns, i say "knock on wood!"
I watch the Mavericks very closely and what is apparent that Doncic seems to have something aching him somewhere all the time.
Yet, he rarely misses time because of that. But i agree that there should be at least some concern in regards to the litany of little ailments (neck, back, thigh (left), calf (left), ankle (left/right). Most worrisome is his ongoing left thigh issue that he is now dealing with since last march. And also at the end of the Timberwolves game he was clearly hobbled by his suddenly swollen ankle with what he missed the game on Friday against the travesty of a team. I initially thought that they just made **** up to give him a night off, but if someone would like to check back to the end of the game against the Wolves, he was clearly in a lot of pain.

And to the standings. I do not think that he has to leapfrog OKC or DEN. They just have to keep it close. If the Mavs finish 3rd with 4 less wins than the 1st seed and Doncic keeps dropping his wtf-games and highlight moments left and right, then he can absolutely win the Award. It is still a long season and we have still 5 absolute legitimate MVP-horses in the race. Truly great...normally at that point in the season it is a race between 3 guys at most.

obviously he's used to playing banged up but the reality is that between minor injuries and rest, he has played in 66 games last season, 65 in 2022 and 66 the season before that

they'd want him as healthy as they can for the playoffs as well, so he's bound to sit some out imo
and it'd be near impossible for him to win wit 65-67 games if Jokic, SGA etc..play 5 or 10 more games.

Well what is truly different this year compared to at least the last three years: Fat Luka has yet to arrive in Dallas. if he keeps his fitness-level there is a good chance that he is fresher and hence can play more. Again: "Knock on wood!"

[iggymcfrack]

Looking at BB-ref’s projections, I may have been a touch pessimistic on Dallas. They give them a 6% chance of a top 4 seed, a 38% chance of getting the 5 or 6, a 55% chance of making the play-in, and only a 1.4% chance of missing altogether. I’d say this probably undervalues Golden State, Phoenix, and Los Angeles a bit who should play better as the season goes on, but the fact remains that the 6 seed would be an excellent result for the Mavericks. I think even the coaching staff would take that in a heartbeat.

[mpoo_sin]

Funny how most people think it is a given that the Mavs finish around the 6th seed and that their defense sucks (and Doncic also sucks on defense)

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Rating Breakdown:

Last 5 Games: 109.0 (3rd)
Last 10 Games: 110.8 (3rd)
Last 20 Games (Since Nov. 30): 113.9 (10th)
First 17 Games (Before Nov. 30): 117.3 (24th)
Whole Season: 115.5 (17th)

I see progress. And do not forget: Irving missed a lot of time and Lively and Exum have now also missed extended stretches. This teams trajectory is by no means pointing down so why are people here so pessimistic?

Ok so the defense has gotten better. Well the offense has obviously gotten worse by a similar amount or else their record and point differential wouldn’t be getting worse. I remember them being 5th in offense early in the season. Now they’re 10th. They rank 7th in SRS in the West between Houston and Golden State. Honestly I think the 6 seed is optimistic. I’d expect them to finish in the play-in.

Basically OKC, Denver, Minnesota, and the Clippers have been the top 4 teams in the West this season and there seems to be a bit of a gap. They’re going to take 4 of the 6 guaranteed playoff spots. So then for the other 2 spots you have New Orleans, Sacramento, Dallas, the Lakers, Houston, Golden State, and Phoenix all fighting for the 5-11 spots.

I don’t see any of those teams as having a meaningful edge on the others with the possible exception of New Orleans. So basically, 2 teams are going to finish in the 5/6, 4 will finish in the play-in, and 1 will miss the play-in altogether. I’d give Dallas around a 28% chance to finish with a top 6 seed, a 58% chance to be in the play-in, and a 14% chance to miss the field altogether. A 6 seed seems more like an optimistic hope than a pessimistic estimate.

The Mavs have still another level they can reach. The group of Doncic, Irving, Exum and Lively has only seen a tiny sample size but these few minutes together they have insane ratings and, much more important, have looked amazing. Of course the offense has suffered without the ultimate pressure release valve in Irving. But i m willing to give them a chance to show how they look on both ends of the floor when this group plays together. Hopefully they get Exum and Lively back sooner rather than later.

DEN and OKC have had their core available for most of the time, so while i think that they too will surely get better during the season i expect a more lineal progression while i think that the Mavs will see more of a jump when the group can get consistent minutes.

[mpoo_sin]

Looking at BB-ref’s projections, I may have been a touch pessimistic on Dallas. They give them a 6% chance of a top 4 seed, a 38% chance of getting the 5 or 6, a 55% chance of making the play-in, and only a 1.4% chance of missing altogether. I’d say this probably undervalues Golden State, Phoenix, and Los Angeles a bit who should play better as the season goes on, but the fact remains that the 6 seed would be an excellent result for the Mavericks. I think even the coaching staff would take that in a heartbeat.

GS, LAL and PHX are toast. I truly believe that.
I lamented the Suns fragility when the season began!

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2326996

It will be interesting how much Green helps the Warriors...but all in all they look old and overmatched.

I refuse to think that a team can really make noise in the West when your best player is freaking 39 years old. As good as he is...for a 39 old. He can not hang with the younger guys for a whole season anymore.