Is Sam Presti overrated?

[MoneyTalks41890]

One thing he can't do is draft in the second round.

Aaron Wiggins and Jaylen Williams are both pretty solid 2nd rounders.

[OGSactownballer]

When it comes to GM team builders in the NBA and guys who are the sharpest dealers in the league, there are Presti and Ainge and then everyone else.

[Lalouie]

Thunder have existed for 15.5 years now. Have had 7 All-NBA talents in KD, Westbrook, Harden, Paul George, Chris Paul, Dom Sabonis and SGA. Have 1 Finals appearance and zero titles. Does he deserve more love for acquiring those guys or more hate for never winning with them?

What you are describing here is the ACCUMULATION of talent - that's presti's job.

What you are complaining about is the player's/coach's problem

[JMAC3]

if presti is overrated, how you rate the nets hornets pistons mavs cuban etc GMs?

Do we need to go over what overrated means? You can think Trae Young is overrated and also not a bottom 100 player in the league.

Everyone probably has Presti in their top 10 GMs, this is not me saying he is bad or deserves to get fired. Most probably have him in their top 3 GMs or higher. That is what I mean when I say is he overrated.

Of course the Hornets, Pistons aren't overrated.

[ShootersShoot]

Truly one of the best talent evaluators in the league. All GMs have their weaknesses, but as far as strengths go, evaluating talent especially through the draft is imo one of the most important for a GM.

Presti has done two rebuilds into contender level teams in a span of 15 years..not bad, considering OKC should be a top team for the next 5+ years at least.

I agree but I honestly think, after years of thinking and studying this, that 'talent evaluation' in the draft is mostly just educated guessing. There are some GMs/FOs that make pretty bad gambles, and there are some who are able to select guys that can develop well in their culture, but everyone else is just taking the same info and saying 'none of us know how this guy will translate exactly, and we have zero idea how he'll develop (besides a couple of unreliable indicators), but X and Y make me think he's a better guess than these other guys in his range.'

I won't go into the whole argument here, but I think Presti has been a top GM even if you chalk up a lot of his draft success to good luck on good gambles. The stuff that you can actually do a direct evaluation of--asset valuation, timing on his assets, making use of all possible avenues, etc--he's done really well.

Yea, there is a bit of guesswork involved, and even the best in the biz are not going to hit the pick every time.
Presti has built a couple of strong cores mainly through the draft. Some people just know better what to look for than others. Its like having a refined palette or great sense of style. Some people just have better attention to detail and observational skills combined with knowledge of their industry and that can translate into a lot of things. Just like coaches, not all GMs are created equal. By your logic, its just as good to have a random GM make a pick than Presti. Thats demonstrably false and I really should not have to explain why.

[advent11]

The goal is not to win a title. It is to be in a position to compete for one year after year.

[Johnny Bball]

Here's my beef with Presti...

He had two years of cheap competing teams, this and next and then its the beginning of cap hell. He Danny Ainged this year cheaping out on Hayward at the deadline with his tradeable salary and keeping what is really far too many picks. If he does the same in the summer, I don't even know what to say. He can keep picking and building but there's a salary cap that's eventually going to restrict what he can do. Now was the time to use some of those picks.

And he could have traded some picks and still be in a position of not just being competetive, but actually really competing.

Building and getting wacked by the cap was the mistake he made last decade and I'm not sure its going to be any different this time.

[Warriorfan]

It's ownership that did not pay up to keep the MVP level players together

[MoneyTalks41890]

He had two years of cheap competing teams. He Danny Ainged this year cheaping out on Hayward at the deadline with his tradeable salary and keeping what is really far too many picks. If he does the same in the summer, I don't even know what to say. He can keep picking and building but there's a salary cap that's eventually going to restrict what he can do. Now was the time to use some of those picks.

And he could have traded some picks and still be in a position of not just being competetive, but actually really competing.

Building and getting wacked by the cap was the mistake he made last decade and I'm not sure its going to be any different this time.

The Thunder cleared 17.7m in cap for next year in the Hayward trade and will have about 30m in cap space this summer.

[Johnny Bball]

He had two years of cheap competing teams. He Danny Ainged this year cheaping out on Hayward at the deadline with his tradeable salary and keeping what is really far too many picks. If he does the same in the summer, I don't even know what to say. He can keep picking and building but there's a salary cap that's eventually going to restrict what he can do. Now was the time to use some of those picks.

And he could have traded some picks and still be in a position of not just being competetive, but actually really competing.

Building and getting wacked by the cap was the mistake he made last decade and I'm not sure its going to be any different this time.

The Thunder cleared 17.7m in cap for next year in the Hayward trade and will have about 30m in cap space this summer.

Yep, and then they have one year left until they will be up against the tax. Your point is?

And if you ask me, not operating above the salary cap is poor planning.

[JMAC3]

So how many people have Presti as a top 3 GM in the league?

[Capn'O]

So how many people have Presti as a top 3 GM in the league?

You should add a poll...

But in the event you don't, I consider him as such.

[OfficialRef]

He has had blemishes people conveniently leave out: trading Harden, anchoring the teams financial flexibility with the Perkin's contract, not going in on the Durant/Westbrook years, Trading for Melo, keeping bad coaches on the team, so forth.

So, like every GM in history then.

Every GM isn't heralded as an elite GM as Presti is. Elite Gms don't make detrimental mistakes that cost them championships. Sorry.

[HotelVitale]

So he gets the credit when the players he drafts turn into good players, but when the players lose in the playoffs that is not on him, it is the players fault. Feels like it can't be completely both ways on this.

Sorry, who made that point? I didn't see it in this thread, but I did see a lot of much better points.

My guess is you want to argue with a straw man--'a great GM will win titles, no excuses'--and nobody else wants to play that game.

[George Oscar]

16 seasons and half of those, if they win a title, are launching into a dynasty. At least they have the chance. Toronto wins one but only rents Kawhi and now look at them.

OKC loses Durant for nothing and here they are again, right back on the cusp. I doubt we’re talking about Toronto in a few years.

Its easy to say look at all the guys they had and they still haven’t won a title. But think about all the players teams have dumped on OKC and then OKC turns around and trades them for assets. I imagine same could be said about their draft picks. Basically development matters. So it’s kind of like Presti gets penalized here for not winning with the players he developed but plenty of draft picks underperform year after year with a lot of the same teams. I doubt it’s a coincidence.

[AussieCeltic]

So how many people have Presti as a top 3 GM in the league?

You should add a poll...

But in the event you don't, I consider him as such.

Add me to that.

He’s clearly top 3.

If you’re basing it off titles OP, do you have Rob Pelinka as a top 3 GM?

[AleksandarN]

When it comes to GM team builders in the NBA and guys who are the sharpest dealers in the league, there are Presti and Ainge and then everyone else.

Booth is not bad either

[Wingy]

So how many years does he get a pass on for the current team not making the Finals? If they don't get to the finals in the next 4 years does that change anything to you?

It’s his job to put together a team capable of competing. If they don’t pull through in the next 4 years, doesn’t mean he is a failure. Everyone can’t win a title or make it out of the conference.

NBA success is largely predicated on having one of those GOAT level players.


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I mean KD was MVP, Westbrook won MVP, PG was in MVP convo, SGA is in MVP convo.

He has 50 future picks, is it not his job to maximize the team and give them best title chances?
Or is it better to just play the long game, stay competitive, keep compiling assets and eventually hope to get lucky?

Didn’t answer the poll because I think he’s about right. He’s one of the top guys in the league. However, I do get where you’re going and I for one think that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

I’ve recently started thinking of him as Smaug from The Hobbit. He seems super powerful gloating on his embarrassment of riches. But eventually, like the fictional dragon I think he’s going down. Not necessarily meaning fired, but the real life equivalent being a failure to win a ring despite this massive, hard to imagine it’s even real war chest.

They’re already starting to devalue assets, and I think he’s going to wait too long and the train’s going to go by him in the meantime. He’s so used to winning, I think he’ll wait too long for perfect. Then even once he cashes in, that optically perfect looking deal in terms of “winning” or at least being “worth it” won’t actually work that great on the court.

Hey, but I’d be thrilled if my team’s FO had positioned themselves to be “Smaug.” Kudos for setting up the opportunity they have.

[Wingy]

OKC loses Durant for nothing and here they are again, right back on the cusp. I doubt we’re talking about Toronto in a few years.

This should be a massive, massive ding on his record.

If SGA doesn’t become insanely better than just about everyone ever imagined, this thread doesn’t exist because OKC’s just another young, losing team with potential.

He has made a lot of brilliant moves, and he has also been incredibly lucky.

[beeshma]

In the USA, Oklahoma City is about as important as Iowa City, or Nevada City, meaning that it is a podunk cowtown of no importance whatsoever.

And so Presti's success must be graded on a curve since no NBA player has ever voluntarily wanted to go to OKC.