Markkanen signing long-term extension (untradeable this season)

[jazzfan1971]

I really don't see how Podz was a dealbreaker.

I know on the trade board sometimes fans get attached to their rookies. And it gets a bit fanatical. This is understandable for a fan. But, for GMs??

Podziemski? Really? This guy?

I think this reminds me of when the Lakers thought THT was going to be a building block of the future.

[HotelVitale]

How is that a win when they are out of the Cooper sweepstake?

Ainge's malfeasance is a black eye on the organization. This is a huge fail.

Didn't the Hawks just literally win the lottery having the 10th best odds?

Does anyone who makes these claims understand just how the lottery works in the NBA now? Do you all realize that the Pistons have had the best odds two years in a row only to get passed up by four teams for two years in a row?

People don't get new lottery odds years after them being implemented - if you really want to tank, the worst thing you could do is have the worst record - it is almost 50% chance you'll end up with 5th pick (especially with lottery being drawn backwards, from 14th to 1st pick).

Cases like Hawks are outliers, but being 2nd to 6th worst is kind of the sweet spot that offers the least downside and the best chances to move up a few spots.

I either can’t read your post or you’re confused. Yes the team with the worst record has a nearly 50% shot of being #5… but every team higher than them has objectively worse odds. Like #2 has the same chances at a #1-4 picks but also has about 30% chance at #5 and 20% at #6. So they’re pretty much the same but the worst you can do is #5 for the worst team while the second worst has a 20% chance of #6.

Agree that teams are adjusting with new odds now to just trying to be about 5th worst but your pick is still going to be higher on average the worse you are. Just a lot less than in the past.

[HotelVitale]

I really don't see how Podz was a dealbreaker.

I know on the trade board sometimes fans get attached to their rookies. And it gets a bit fanatical. This is understandable for a fan. But, for GMs??

Podziemski? Really? This guy?

I think this reminds me of when the Lakers thought THT was going to be a building block of the future.

Think it was probably more Podz on top of a bunch of other stuff, and also knowing that Lauri probably wasn’t winning them a title in their aging core’s sunset years.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Are you telling me the lottery is all about luck? Agreed.

that's what you got from my post?

Pretty much, especially when the argument is the Jazz need to suck it up for Cooper Flagg. Luck is the only way the Jazz are getting him.

The issue is that any rebuilding team needs to be really bad for years and years and years at this point to get a high level prospect on average. And this extended period of tanking seems non-viable given Markkanen's age. The Jazz are entering year 3 of tanking with him in his prime and have come out with 0 high level prospects in the first two years.

Like, let's say the Jazz don't get a good prospect this year... Are Markkanen and ownership and the front office etc okay tanking again? What if again they don't get a good prospect in 2026? Would they tank for a 5th year?

Any attempt to get a high level prospect through the draft should assume it will take 3-4 years of heavy losing on average. Are Markkanen and everyone else willing to take 3-4 more years of heavy losing?

[Jadoogar]

that's what you got from my post?

Pretty much, especially when the argument is the Jazz need to suck it up for Cooper Flagg. Luck is the only way the Jazz are getting him.

The issue is that any rebuilding team needs to be really bad for years and years and years at this point to get a high level prospect on average. And this extended period of tanking seems non-viable given Markkanen's age. The Jazz are entering year 3 of tanking with him in his prime and have come out with 0 high level prospects in the first two years.

They also haven't really tanked.
2022-23; they finished with 37 wins. Picked Taylor Hendicks at 9 (yet to show anything) and Keyonte George at 16 (via Wolves)
2023-24: finished with 31 wins (required some late season tanking). Picked Cody Williams at 10 (i don't know anything about him but the draft has looked weak overall).

They have started the season well both times and had to pivot midseason. They need to commit to being bad from the start of the season so they can maximize their chances at a high pick. The incoming picks from the Wolves and Cavs aren't going to be valuable for atleast a few more years.

[John Murdoch]

Kessler/Collins for Ingram

[DonaldSanders]

I really don't see how Podz was a dealbreaker.

I know on the trade board sometimes fans get attached to their rookies. And it gets a bit fanatical. This is understandable for a fan. But, for GMs??

Podziemski? Really? This guy?

I think this reminds me of when the Lakers thought THT was going to be a building block of the future.

Keep in mind that cuts both ways -- if Podz isn't all that great, why would the Jazz mind if he isn't included?

Another issue is that Podz is really liked by Kerr, and fits in the Warrior system. I've never seen Steve Kerr play a rookie so much! He has the best plus minus on the whole team (partly though by being Klay's sub, avoiding sharing the court with him). The rookie scale contract is also a solid factor, he is performing well beyond his 19th pick money for a team that just avoided 2nd apron.

And THT was never 1st team all rookie. Podz is probably not a star, but definitely will be a plus player in this league and will have a long career. And from a stats/advanced stats POV, THT has never had a season as good as Podz's rookie season.

[ConSarnit]

Are you telling me the lottery is all about luck? Agreed.

that's what you got from my post?

Pretty much, especially when the argument is the Jazz need to suck it up for Cooper Flagg. Luck is the only way the Jazz are getting him.

Here’s a fun exercise for you: go back and quote all of the times someone has used the word “Cooper” or “Flagg” in this thread and report back.

The 2025 draft is widely considered strong at the top. This includes guys like Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecomb. That’s why it’s beneficial to have a top draft pick this year. Because there are multiple high level prospects in the top 5. Bad record + multiple high level prospects = increased chance at landing one. The math isn’t hard here.

[meat tray]

Since trading Mitchell/Gobert, Jazz have finished with 37 and 31 wins. Not good obviously but far from bottom 5. They are returning with a similar team. I think there is a clear bottom 4 in Portland, Nets, Pistons and Wizards. Utah could get bottom 5 but it's not guaranteed since there will be a lot of competition.

They are returning a similar roster to the post-deadline team, which had the worst record in the league. Jazz went 1-12 in games that Lauri played after the deadline. Collins, Clarkson, Sexton and Lauri were all playing major minutes in those games too.

Since then they let Dunn go and replaced him with three more rookies. This team is much worse than the opening night rosters from the previous two seasons.

[Pattycakes]

Jerami Grants value just doubled.

#dontbelievemejuzwatch

[HadAnEffectHere]

Since trading Mitchell/Gobert, Jazz have finished with 37 and 31 wins. Not good obviously but far from bottom 5. They are returning with a similar team. I think there is a clear bottom 4 in Portland, Nets, Pistons and Wizards. Utah could get bottom 5 but it's not guaranteed since there will be a lot of competition.

They are returning a similar roster to the post-deadline team, which had the worst record in the league. Jazz went 1-12 in games that Lauri played after the deadline. Collins, Clarkson, Sexton and Lauri were all playing major minutes in those games too.

Since then they let Dunn go and replaced him with three more rookies. This team is much worse than the opening night rosters from the previous two seasons.

The Jazz were intentionally throwing games and had the worst defense in the history of basketball post all-star break.

Unless you think that Keyonte George and Taylor Hendricks are never going to be good players, they have to be WAY better this year. They were so bad defensively last year that they led a historically awful (again, the worst in NBA history) defense. They were so awful that any growth to like... NBA bench caliber... Would make the Jazz way better. And if those guys are still as bad as last year, that means the Jazz blew every pick in the 2023 draft.

[Richard4444]

But I was told by the geniuses here that Ainge's trade demands were nuts and that Lauri would become an unrestricted FA next year because of...uh, reasons.

I think most of us were saying it would not be very smart for the Utah Jazz to keep Lauri because:

1) Utah is far away to contend right now. Sexton, Collins, and Clarkson do not inspire much confidence. Kessler, George, Cody Williams, and Hendricks are far away from breaking out.

2) Lauri can disrupt a tanking season to compete for Cooper Flag and high-potential rookies.

3) Lauri is not durable and overpaying him could result in an albatross contract.

4) The market was very good for sellers. Most franchises want to compete now. And it was easy to match his small salary. His price could have reached its peak this offseason.

However, he can be a very good target next offseason assuming he is staying healthy. Maybe, he can become more attractive to most franchises after being locked for several seasons and the price rises. Especially small market clubs always are afraid of flight-risky players.

Agreed, they aren't contending now, but a few moves with Lauri on the roster and who knows. To me he's the type of player you want to have on a team, instead of just getting draft picks and hoping you'll draft someone as good as him. With the flat lottery odds, tanking is just a dumb strategy, but then again I've always been anti-tanking and it's a strategy I've hated forever.

I disagree about the market being good for sellers, at least in Lauri's case. The reported offers I saw for Lauri were horrible. I mean absolute dog crap horrible.

I am not a big-time advocator for tanking. In the Knicks forum, a lot of the posters want to trade everybody and tank after a few losses in a row. And keep tanking until gets the next LeBron, Curry, Edwards, Shai, or Wemby. I think it's a dumb strategy.

But tanking for a couple of seasons while investing in young players can be an interesting move. Especially for a low-attraction market without plenty of young players ready to break out and before a great draft class.

I liked the Jazz strategy of selling the players for a high price and accumulating assets in the process.

I am not sure how much keeping Lauri can be useful to the Jazz for the long haul. He has already hit his peak and has durability issues. I am not sure how fast Jazz can rebuild around Lauri even with plenty of assets to facilitate a trade for a second star.

[realEAST]

Didn't the Hawks just literally win the lottery having the 10th best odds?

Does anyone who makes these claims understand just how the lottery works in the NBA now? Do you all realize that the Pistons have had the best odds two years in a row only to get passed up by four teams for two years in a row?

People don't get new lottery odds years after them being implemented - if you really want to tank, the worst thing you could do is have the worst record - it is almost 50% chance you'll end up with 5th pick (especially with lottery being drawn backwards, from 14th to 1st pick).

Cases like Hawks are outliers, but being 2nd to 6th worst is kind of the sweet spot that offers the least downside and the best chances to move up a few spots.

Explain this position? How is it better to be the 4th worst team (40% chance of drafting 6th or worst) then the worst team (0% chance of drafting 6th or worst?)

The best odds are still being the worst team.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

As a 4th worst record, you have 17% chance to get 7th pick, but there are teams with greater odds than you, and two by a significant margin.

To get 6th worst pick you have 2nd best chance, but there are also two other teams with comparable, significant chances.

So if you get past that, you have the least chance to get 5th pick, and after that you have almost flat odds for top4 pick.

Whereas, as 1st worst record your lottery starts drawing for the 5th pick, and you have 48% to get it. And then you have three more picks with more or less flat odds, before getting a top pick. Pretty tricky.

One one hand, of course, with worst record you are guaranteed a top5 pick - but most likely it is a #5 pick. Guess it is a way to penlize the worst team for being there and deincentivize the most blatant of the tanking.

In that sense, if you are looking for top 3 pick or so, 2nd to 6th worst odds offer relatively better position imo.
And I wouldn't blow team apart trying to be the worst, when being in this second group gives you at least comparable chances.

[jokeboy86]

Surprised no one has also mentioned that if you're Utah why not extend someone who actually wants to be there. If it were anybody(American)else with Lauri's talent the odds are they go to FA to get out of a non-contending small market. Again as I mentioned before it does seem like the good European players prefer stability over everything else and may not be into the team hopping thing

[Nate505]

that's what you got from my post?

Pretty much, especially when the argument is the Jazz need to suck it up for Cooper Flagg. Luck is the only way the Jazz are getting him.

Here’s a fun exercise for you: go back and quote all of the times someone has used the word “Cooper” or “Flagg” in this thread and report back.

The 2025 draft is widely considered strong at the top. This includes guys like Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecomb. That’s why it’s beneficial to have a top draft pick this year. Because there are multiple high level prospects in the top 5. Bad record + multiple high level prospects = increased chance at landing one. The math isn’t hard here.

Right here. To literally the post I was responding to.

How is that a win when they are out of the Cooper sweepstake?

In this case, I only needed to find one, given it was literally the post I was responding to.

Also, I've seen the "this is an amazing draft" movie before. 2014 was the same way for the top 5 picks, and look at the HOFers it produced! The Jazz even got one of them. Can't wait until Dante Exum's jersey is hanging from the rafters at the Delta Center.

[Nate505]

Surprised no one has also mentioned that if you're Utah why not extend someone who actually wants to be there.

Because for these people, this is purely an equation on a spreadsheet to try to generate an outcome that equals a championship, and nothing else matters.

[tsherkin]

It's nice he's staying. I hope he's able to be healthy going forward. He's very good when he is healthy.

[Foliohattu]

This is great for Jazz, they can get more value from him in a trade a year from now. Or if they either draft or trade for a another star, Lauri will fit with almost anyone. His combination of production, quite low usage, off-ball scoring/creation and a little bit positional versatility basically fits with any other allstar-level player.

[Jadoogar]

This is great for Jazz, they can get more value from him in a trade a year from now. Or if they either draft or trade for a another star, Lauri will fit with almost anyone. His combination of production, quite low usage, off-ball scoring/creation and a little bit positional versatility basically fits with any other allstar-level player.

The Bulls probably thought the same thing before they extended Zach Lavine. Or the Hawks before they extended John Collins.

I'm not saying the same thing happens with Markkanen but it's not guaranteed that a player's trade value increases on a long term contract. Markkanen also not the pinnacle of health (played 65+ games only twice in his career).

[DorO]

Will be in bottom 3-5 even with Markkanen, young players will get some burn -> recipe to be really bad.

What from the past 2 years makes you think you’ll end up bottom 5? In the last 2 years you’ve had to tank just to get into the bottom 10. The only way you’ve been able to effectively tank the past 2 years has been by shutting Markkanen down. The terrible teams are going to be terrible out of the gate and you won’t be able to catch them through late season tanking. We’ve seen this story before: Markkanen + good coaching gives you some level of competence. Is Markkanen going to agree to shut it down after 40 games, because that’s what you’ll need to do.

Since trading Mitchell/Gobert, Jazz have finished with 37 and 31 wins. Not good obviously but far from bottom 5. They are returning with a similar team. I think there is a clear bottom 4 in Portland, Nets, Pistons and Wizards. Utah could get bottom 5 but it's not guaranteed since there will be a lot of competition.

Just wait and see, it is not the same team without Olynyk and Dunn - it is a lot worse.