Washington Wizards: what's your RealGM analysis?

[nate33]

They always wait too long to commit to a rebuild. The writing was on the wall with Beal 3 years ago. He was averaging 30 a game but the Wizards couldn't even play .500 ball with him. They obviously should have traded him when he had real value and then committed to tanking. Instead, they traded for Westbrook and then for Porzingis in a desperate attempt to stay relevant. All it did was lead to a few 35-win seasons and late lotto picks while Beal's trade value steadily declined.

The Wizards finally figured it out last summer and committed to properly rebuilding through the draft. But Rome wasn't built in a day. It's going to take a couple of years and some luck, but at least they have the right strategic vision. And since they didn't start the process by trading good vets for draft picks, it's going to take longer.

We can quibble about how the rebuild is going. I hated the Deni trade, for example. But the bottom line is that we're not really going to know until we see how these guys pan out. Their future depends on Sarr, Bilal and Carrington.

Are the wizard fans really bullish on Sarr? He will be a big factor on how quickly they turn the organization around but agree that either way, its going to take 2-4 years at a minimum to become relevant.

No. We're not that bullish on Sarr given his poor play in Summer League. It wasn't just the poor shooting, it was the general aversion to contact. He just seems soft, and I don't know if that improves. Ultimately, I don't think he has the necessary physicality to play center in the modern NBA. And him being a center is what makes him special in theory. With him at center, you can construct a switch-everything defense.

If Sarr is a power forward, he is "just a guy". Yeah, he'll defend very well and provide some weak side shot blocking, but he has below average offensive skill for the power forward position which will compromise the offense.

I think he'll probably pan out to be something like Jonathan Isaac. That's not bad, but it's not a top 3 starter on a good team either.

[LakersSoul]

They always wait too long to commit to a rebuild. The writing was on the wall with Beal 3 years ago. He was averaging 30 a game but the Wizards couldn't even play .500 ball with him. They obviously should have traded him when he had real value and then committed to tanking. Instead, they traded for Westbrook and then for Porzingis in a desperate attempt to stay relevant. All it did was lead to a few 35-win seasons and late lotto picks while Beal's trade value steadily declined.

The Wizards finally figured it out last summer and committed to properly rebuilding through the draft. But Rome wasn't built in a day. It's going to take a couple of years and some luck, but at least they have the right strategic vision. And since they didn't start the process by trading good vets for draft picks, it's going to take longer.

We can quibble about how the rebuild is going. I hated the Deni trade, for example. But the bottom line is that we're not really going to know until we see how these guys pan out. Their future depends on Sarr, Bilal and Carrington.

Are the wizard fans really bullish on Sarr? He will be a big factor on how quickly they turn the organization around but agree that either way, its going to take 2-4 years at a minimum to become relevant.

No. We're not that bullish on Sarr given his poor play in Summer League. It wasn't just the poor shooting, it was the general aversion to contact. He just seems soft, and I don't know if that improves. Ultimately, I don't think he has the necessary physicality to play center in the modern NBA. And him being a center is what makes him special in theory. With him at center, you can construct a switch-everything defense.

If Sarr is a power forward, he is "just a guy". Yeah, he'll defend very well and provide some weak side shot blocking, but he has below average offensive skill for the power forward position which will compromise the offense.

I think he'll probably pan out to be something like Jonathan Isaac. That's not bad, but it's not a top 3 starter on a good team either.

Yeah, for a team looking to add top talent or get more assets, kind of surprised Wizards added such a work-in-progress. They should have really traded the #2 pick for future picks but not sure if the demand was there.

Really felt like a soft lottery year.

[Dan Z]

Are the wizard fans really bullish on Sarr? He will be a big factor on how quickly they turn the organization around but agree that either way, its going to take 2-4 years at a minimum to become relevant.

No. We're not that bullish on Sarr given his poor play in Summer League. It wasn't just the poor shooting, it was the general aversion to contact. He just seems soft, and I don't know if that improves. Ultimately, I don't think he has the necessary physicality to play center in the modern NBA. And him being a center is what makes him special in theory. With him at center, you can construct a switch-everything defense.

If Sarr is a power forward, he is "just a guy". Yeah, he'll defend very well and provide some weak side shot blocking, but he has below average offensive skill for the power forward position which will compromise the offense.

I think he'll probably pan out to be something like Jonathan Isaac. That's not bad, but it's not a top 3 starter on a good team either.

Yeah, for a team looking to add top talent or get more assets, kind of surprised Wizards added such a work-in-progress. They should have really traded the #2 pick for future picks but not sure if the demand was there.

Really felt like a soft lottery year.

I thought they should've used the #2 pick on Reed Sheppard and then the late pick on a big (maybe Filipowski?). The Deni trade changed that a bit because they got a point guard (Bud) plus future assets.

Overall Im not big on their roster, but it'll take time and, as Nate points out, a rebuild was long over due.

[LakersSoul]

No. We're not that bullish on Sarr given his poor play in Summer League. It wasn't just the poor shooting, it was the general aversion to contact. He just seems soft, and I don't know if that improves. Ultimately, I don't think he has the necessary physicality to play center in the modern NBA. And him being a center is what makes him special in theory. With him at center, you can construct a switch-everything defense.

If Sarr is a power forward, he is "just a guy". Yeah, he'll defend very well and provide some weak side shot blocking, but he has below average offensive skill for the power forward position which will compromise the offense.

I think he'll probably pan out to be something like Jonathan Isaac. That's not bad, but it's not a top 3 starter on a good team either.

Yeah, for a team looking to add top talent or get more assets, kind of surprised Wizards added such a work-in-progress. They should have really traded the #2 pick for future picks but not sure if the demand was there.

Really felt like a soft lottery year.

I thought they should've used the #2 pick on Reed Sheppard and then the late pick on a big (maybe Filipowski?). The Deni trade changed that a bit because they got a point guard (Bud) plus future assets.

Overall Im not big on their roster, but it'll take time and, as Nate points out, a rebuild was long over due.

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

[Special_Puppy]

They're rebuilding without really any surplus draft capital. That's always going to be a very long and painful process

[Dan Z]

Yeah, for a team looking to add top talent or get more assets, kind of surprised Wizards added such a work-in-progress. They should have really traded the #2 pick for future picks but not sure if the demand was there.

Really felt like a soft lottery year.

I thought they should've used the #2 pick on Reed Sheppard and then the late pick on a big (maybe Filipowski?). The Deni trade changed that a bit because they got a point guard (Bud) plus future assets.

Overall Im not big on their roster, but it'll take time and, as Nate points out, a rebuild was long over due.

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

I forgot about George. He has potential. How did he do in summer league?

Im sure Wizards fans have debated this but, is Sheppard, George, and Deni better than Sarr, Bud, George, Brogdon, a future pick and a pick swap?

[nate33]

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

He is not very athletic at all. He can't jump over a sheet of paper.

He is a very good shooter with better-than-average court awareness, and has some size and length, so I can see him panning out as a rotation player. But I don't ever seeing him becoming a positive defender, which pretty much relegates him to a backup forward. Best case scenario is that he pans out to be something like Cameron Johnson, but I think the more likely outcome is something more like Georges Niang.

[nate33]

I thought they should've used the #2 pick on Reed Sheppard and then the late pick on a big (maybe Filipowski?). The Deni trade changed that a bit because they got a point guard (Bud) plus future assets.

Overall Im not big on their roster, but it'll take time and, as Nate points out, a rebuild was long over due.

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

I forgot about George. He has potential. How did he do in summer league?

Im sure Wizards fans have debated this but, is Sheppard, George, and Deni better than Sarr, Bud, George, Brogdon, a future pick and a pick swap?

Yes. They would have been better with Sheppard and Deni.

The real rabbit hole to explore is whether or not the Portland #13 pick or the Sacramento #14 pick, or the Lakers #17 pick could have been available for Kuzma and the #26 pick. Bub Carlton would have been available at #14 and probably at #17.

The Wizards arguably could have had Sheppard, Bub and Deni instead of Sarr, Bub, George and Kuzma and a 2029 1st. That's 3 good starters a couple of years from now, plus Bilal and a 2025 high lotto pick (Flagg?). You can always find a half decent center in free agency.

[LakersSoul]

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

He is not very athletic at all. He can't jump over a sheet of paper.

He is a very good shooter with better-than-average court awareness, and has some size and length, so I can see him panning out as a rotation player. But I don't ever seeing him become a positive defender, which pretty much relegates him to a backup forward. Best case scenario is that he pans out to be something like Cameron Johnson, but I think the more likely outcome is something more like Georges Niang.

I remember watching some analysis on him and thought he had good defender potential with that length. Now that I rewatch it, he does look a bit like a sloth, lol.

Still good shooter, good vision and handles for a 6'8" wing

[Jadoogar]

The direction is fine. They are clearly tanking, long time coming.
Signing Beal was an insane move. Giving him a no trade was wild, even at the time. Set them back atleast 5 years because they got no meaningful assets in the trade.

I don't like any of their young players. Obviously very early for Sarr but not off to a good start. Coulibaly is a fine 3&D prospect. They have no one with star potential at the moment. Good thing is they will have a terrible record this year. They really need to nail this pick and get a star.

Poole and Kuzma are kind of useless on the roster but they aren't winning any games either way.

[Jadoogar]

Heres there Projected Depth Chart
Valanciunas/Bagley/Holmes
Kuzma/Sarr/*Bey
Coulibaly/Kispert
Poole/Davis
Brogdon/Carrington/Butler

jfc are they really not going to start Sarr?

[Scalabrine]

Heres there Projected Depth Chart
Valanciunas/Bagley/Holmes
Kuzma/Sarr/*Bey
Coulibaly/Kispert
Poole/Davis
Brogdon/Carrington/Butler

jfc are they really not going to start Sarr?

I think it'd be wise for them to not right off the bat honestly. Let him earn the minutes while they inflate the value of the vets so they can get something for them in a trade.

[Dan Z]

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

I forgot about George. He has potential. How did he do in summer league?

Im sure Wizards fans have debated this but, is Sheppard, George, and Deni better than Sarr, Bud, George, Brogdon, a future pick and a pick swap?

Yes. They would have been better with Sheppard and Deni.

The real rabbit hole to explore is whether or not the Portland #13 pick or the Sacramento #14 pick, or the Lakers #17 pick could have been available for Kuzma and the #26 pick. Bub Carlton would have been available at #14 and probably at #17.

The Wizards arguably could have had Sheppard, Bub and Deni instead of Sarr, Bub, George and Kuzma and a 2029 1st. That's 3 good starters a couple of years from now, plus Bilal and a 2025 high lotto pick (Flagg?). You can always find a half decent center in free agency.

I prefer your scenario and would feel better about their future had they done that.

The Wizards already found a halfway decent center with Jonas (even though hes not really a part of the teams future).

But maybe Sarr ends up being a surprise and the direction they went in works out? Either way its better than sticking with players like Beal and going nowhere.

[nate33]

Heres there Projected Depth Chart
Valanciunas/Bagley/Holmes
Kuzma/Sarr/*Bey
Coulibaly/Kispert
Poole/Davis
Brogdon/Carrington/Butler

jfc are they really not going to start Sarr?

Sarr is a long term project. He'll get minutes, but it doesn't bother me much if he doesn't start. And if he does start, that only means that Coulibaly has to come off the bench. And frankly, Coulibaly is better than Sarr at the moment.

[CP3nthusiast]

Didn't love their draft, the Poole trade was and continues to be an unmitigated disaster, they should've traded Kuzma when the market for him was hot. D+ so far for the front office, would be a D- if they didn't get a nice haul for Deni Avdija.

Not so sure. Last few moves have been smart!

Not sure about Sarr but:

Traded picks and picked up Keyshawn George.
Traded Deni for Brogdan plus 2 FRPs and SRP.

Then pickup FAs:
Bey 3/20
Valanciunas 3/30

These looks to me some solid moves with good upside for the team.

Maybe one of their picks will hit and the future will start to look a bit rosier but I don't think Saddiq Bey and Jonas Valanciunas are game changers for any team in the league. Bey is on his third team in 4 years because he's a wing who can't shoot or defend and Valanciunas is an old-school bruising center who's on the wrong side of thirty and will prove to be an awful fit next to a non-spacing 5 who wants to play the 4 for some reason.

[Rustyman]

I am the only one who voted "Yes, a lot" and I will try to briefly explain why below:

1. They explicitly chose a direction and that direction is that we will be very bad over at least the next two seasons to allow us to have an opportunity to acquire young draft picks and draft capital. Last year they began the tank when they traded Beal and Porzingas and the will continue to trade away any decent players they have which do not fit their timeline. They also appointed a new coach whose entire objective will be to develop young players.

2. They traded away Deni Avdija who was probably their best player last year on a very good contract. In return for Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, a 2029 first-round pick and two future second-round picks. A good exchange which allows them to build for the future. While Avdija was a very good player and contract, he did not fit their timeline and would only hamper their objective to be one of the worse teams in the NBA over the next two years.

3. The drafted 3 young players this year and they got the player they would have drafted at no.1 if they could in Alex Sarr. Sarr, Carrington and Jones together with Coulibaly last year is the nucleus of a decent team. Even if two of them flame out, you have a least two good rotational players. Also, for all the doom and gloom over Sarr's Summer League performance, the only real issues he had was shooting efficiency and strength and he should overcome that in the next two years. Defensively, in the Summer League, he was all they expected.

4. They have their own draft picks in 2026/27, both of whom are regarded as potentially very good drafts.

5. Their entire projected starting 5 outside of Sarr (Kuzman, Brogden, Poole, Val) are likely to be traded for picks in the next 12 months.

The Wizards are therefore going all in for a rebuild through the draft. Something they should have done years ago instead of sticking with the tank but compete mode they were in before which was never viable for them as they did not have a good enough talent to build around. In the next 3 years they will find one or more in the multitude of rookies and then their rebuild will focus on building around that player(s) like the Spurs/Thunder are currently doing.

I like the Wizards approach after what seems like decades of mediocrity.

[floppymoose]

Thanks for the writeup. What happened to the 2025 draft pick?

[LakersSoul]

Didn't love their draft, the Poole trade was and continues to be an unmitigated disaster, they should've traded Kuzma when the market for him was hot. D+ so far for the front office, would be a D- if they didn't get a nice haul for Deni Avdija.

Not so sure. Last few moves have been smart!

Not sure about Sarr but:

Traded picks and picked up Keyshawn George.
Traded Deni for Brogdan plus 2 FRPs and SRP.

Then pickup FAs:
Bey 3/20
Valanciunas 3/30

These looks to me some solid moves with good upside for the team.

Maybe one of their picks will hit and the future will start to look a bit rosier but I don't think Saddiq Bey and Jonas Valanciunas are game changers for any team in the league. Bey is on his third team in 4 years because he's a wing who can't shoot or defend and Valanciunas is an old-school bruising center who's on the wrong side of thirty and will prove to be an awful fit next to a non-spacing 5 who wants to play the 4 for some reason.

They had to sign someone and they got two decent vets on good contract to be traded or packaged down the road.

[LakersSoul]

I am the only one who voted "Yes, a lot" and I will try to briefly explain why below:

1. They explicitly chose a direction and that direction is that we will be very bad over at least the next two seasons to allow us to have an opportunity to acquire young draft picks and draft capital. Last year they began the tank when they traded Beal and Porzingas and the will continue to trade away any decent players they have which do not fit their timeline. They also appointed a new coach whose entire objective will be to develop young players.

2. They traded away Deni Avdija who was probably their best player last year on a very good contract. In return for Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, a 2029 first-round pick and two future second-round picks. A good exchange which allows them to build for the future. While Avdija was a very good player and contract, he did not fit their timeline and would only hamper their objective to be one of the worse teams in the NBA over the next two years.

3. The drafted 3 young players this year and they got the player they would have drafted at no.1 if they could in Alex Sarr. Sarr, Carrington and Jones together with Coulibaly last year is the nucleus of a decent team. Even if two of them flame out, you have a least two good rotational players. Also, for all the doom and gloom over Sarr's Summer League performance, the only real issues he had was shooting efficiency and strength and he should overcome that in the next two years. Defensively, in the Summer League, he was all they expected.

4. They have their own draft picks in 2026/27, both of whom are regarded as potentially very good drafts.

5. Their entire projected starting 5 outside of Sarr (Kuzman, Brogden, Poole, Val) are likely to be traded for picks in the next 12 months.

The Wizards are therefore going all in for a rebuild through the draft. Something they should have done years ago instead of sticking with the tank but compete mode they were in before which was never viable for them as they did not have a good enough talent to build around. In the next 3 years they will find one or more in the multitude of rookies and then their rebuild will focus on building around that player(s) like the Spurs/Thunder are currently doing.

I like the Wizards approach after what seems like decades of mediocrity.

Don’t know if you meant Spurs/Thunder or Jazz/Thunder. Spurs don’t have many assets, they only got lucky with Wemby.

Thunder method of facilitating trade is the key to stockpiling draft picks.

Wizards have been so bad for so long, I kind of root for them to do well and they are not far from my location so maybe I can catch a few games too if they get better.

[The Servant]

Perpetual dumpster fire with little to no chance of being relevant. Pray Cooper doesn't land there, damn.