2024-25 NBA DPOY and All-Defense discussion

[UcanUwill]

Can Caruso make all defense as a 20 mpg guy?

His defensive EPM is 2nd in the league.

Carusuo has been doo doo all season, this man can't get a rhythm going offensively.

He’s been the best defensive non-big

New game limit also includes minutes limit, you need to play at least 20 minutes in 65 games I believe. If he can do that, why not, but you said he only averages around 20 minutes, so we would need to go over his game logs to see if he even qualify. I think OKC perimeter defender to get the not would be Dort tho.

[cupcakesnake]

I'd keep an eye on OG Anunoby.
The Knicks were awful on defense to start the season, but during that stretch, OG had insane on/off numbers, basically keeping the Knicks afloat all by himself. Now the defense is starting to stabilize, and the Knicks have a functional defensive bench and starting lineup that isn't overly reliant on OG.

They've been playing like a top 10 defense over their last 10 games, and OG is out there blocking 3s and locking everyone up. If New York continues to play solid defense, gets Mitchell Robinson back and climbs into the actual top 10, OG deserves some noise. He's just the type of defender that deserves automatic DPOY and all-defense consideration whenever he's healthy and his team is solid.

[Rust_Cohle]

I'd keep an eye on OG Anunoby.
The Knicks were awful on defense to start the season, but during that stretch, OG had insane on/off numbers, basically keeping the Knicks afloat all by himself. Now the defense is starting to stabilize, and the Knicks have a functional defensive bench and starting lineup that isn't overly reliant on OG.

They've been playing like a top 10 defense over their last 10 games, and OG is out there blocking 3s and locking everyone up. If New York continues to play solid defense, gets Mitchell Robinson back and climbs into the actual top 10, OG deserves some noise. He's just the type of defender that deserves automatic DPOY and all-defense consideration whenever he's healthy and his team is solid.

He’s great but too injury prone so hopefully he can stay in contention with the minimum game requirement. He’s a stud for sure.

[Johnny Bball]

OP realizing why no one else made this thread haha. No matter what you do, everyone hates your poll.

Also Derrick White.

OG.

Chet Holmgren though.

[cupcakesnake]

Kind of fun information. Any surprises here?

Read on Twitter

[cupcakesnake]

OP realizing why no one else made this thread haha. No matter what you do, everyone hates your poll.

Polls are fun and probably bring people to the thread but it really be like bisme says.
I remember the thread last year was 25% defensive discussion and 75% people showing up to write 3 word posts complaining about why their guy isn't in the poll.

Probably better without it?

[bbms]

Kind of fun information. Any surprises here?

Read on Twitter

yeah i mentioned it yesterday

what the **** is happening that jalen williams isn't mentioned by analysists as a candidate?

[DCasey91]

Caruso
White
OG
Eason
Wemby/Mobley

Suggs/DD (coin toss)
JDUB (but likely Shai)
Brown/Holiday
Thompson
Wemby/Mobley

HM: Hartenstein

[cupcakesnake]

Kind of fun information. Any surprises here?

Read on Twitter

yeah i mentioned it yesterday

what the **** is happening that jalen williams isn't mentioned by analysists as a candidate?

Lots of ridiculous elite defenders on the Thunder (like 3-4 guys who could anchor a defense on their own and 3-4 guys who are amongst the best perimeter defenders by themselves)

but I agree with you. I don't think people realize how ridiculous Jalen Williams is a defender. Strong bodied 7'2" wingspan who guards 5 positions and offers actual rim protection even when playing as the primary center in a lineup. Not like Derrick White type style tertiary rim protection from the guard spot (still very cool), I'm talking: The 6'4" Jalen Williams being asked to play drop coverage as the primary rim protector in a scheme, and defending the paint like he's Giannis. He only did it for those games between Chet's injury and iHart's return but he still does it in small spurts when the Thunder go small. He's a shooting guard that has been asked to play the 4 and he doesn't just survive... opponents don't survive him.

That tweet shows his paint defense being the best for a guard sized player, but want to know something crazier? As a rim defender, he's even crazier. 100th percentile in rim frequency (how much he contests opponents rim attempts) and 97th percentile in rim defense by holding guys -12.6% below their expected fg%. That's just insane. That's like Wemby/Gobert type numbers.

Oh and if his paint defense wasn't enough, he gets 3.5 defelections per game (92nd perentile) and is one of the most versatile defenders in the NBA in terms of how often he spends guarding the 5 different positions.

I think most people think Jalen is a super solid defender. I don't think people realize he's playing like a DPOY candidate.

[benhillboy]

Kind of fun information. Any surprises here?

Read on Twitter

yeah i mentioned it yesterday

what the **** is happening that jalen williams isn't mentioned by analysists as a candidate?

Lots of ridiculous elite defenders on the Thunder (like 3-4 guys who could anchor a defense on their own and 3-4 guys who are amongst the best perimeter defenders by themselves)

but I agree with you. I don't think people realize how ridiculous Jalen Williams is a defender. Strong bodied 7'2" wingspan who guards 5 positions and offers actual rim protection even when playing as the primary center in a lineup. Not like Derrick White type style tertiary rim protection from the guard spot (still very cool), I'm talking: The 6'4" Jalen Williams being asked to play drop coverage as the primary rim protector in a scheme, and defending the paint like he's Giannis. He only did it for those games between Chet's injury and iHart's return but he still does it in small spurts when the Thunder go small. He's a shooting guard that has been asked to play the 4 and he doesn't just survive... opponents don't survive him.

That tweet shows his paint defense being the best for a guard sized player, but want to know something crazier? As a rim defender, he's even crazier. 100th percentile in rim frequency (how much he contests opponents rim attempts) and 97th percentile in rim defense by holding guys -12.6% below their expected fg%. That's just insane. That's like Wemby/Gobert type numbers.

Oh and if his paint defense wasn't enough, he gets 3.5 defelections per game (92nd perentile) and is one of the most versatile defenders in the NBA in terms of how often he spends guarding the 5 different positions.

I think most people think Jalen is a super solid defender. I don't think people realize he's playing like a DPOY candidate.

I don’t even try to describe Jalen anymore, he’s like some super rare, ocean-floor bioluminescent jellyfish that eats sharks lol. I just shake my head and drop my jaw at the stuff he does. All damn game long.

Like when the Hawks had all 5 of their starters make POTM (still one of the coolest awards handed out by the league in modern history) the Thunder are making their case to just have the team logo and season on the trophy.

I never been an OG fan. He has more lapses on tape in help situations than I care to see from a player of his reputation and he isn’t a sprinter in transition. I gotta throw his +14.7 on court per 100 with the Knicks in the garbage (that’s strictly Jokic territory for starters) when his career defensive box is a very pedestrian +0.6 with a limited offensive workload. Jimmy’s is 1.4 with an insane workload at his peak. Top tier bench guards get near +3 regularly. Fine defender no question but I’d much rather Amen or Dort.

[cupcakesnake]

I never been an OG fan. He has more lapses on tape in help situations than I care to see from a player of his reputation and he isn’t a sprinter in transition. I gotta throw his +14.7 on court per 100 with the Knicks in the garbage (that’s strictly Jokic territory for starters) when his career defensive box is a very pedestrian +0.6 with a limited offensive workload. Jimmy’s is 1.4 with an insane workload at his peak. Top tier bench guards get near +3 regularly. Fine defender no question but I’d much rather Amen or Dort.

What number are you referencing with "career defensive box". From 2020-2024 with the Raptors, the Raps are 4 points better on defense (per 100), and +6.4 overall, despite the Raptors generally being quite deep in terms of wing/forward defenders. Then there's the small sample (1722) minutes of New York OG being a ridiculous +14.8 (all numbers from pbpstats).

Not sure I see what you see with his help lapses. He's been mostly employed as the guy who defends the star and sticks him tight, but in his last full year in Toronto (before they brough back Poeltl), OG was used as the primary help defender, waiting in the center of the floor to stop the opponents from getting the ball to the weakside of the overload. He was incredible in that role, leading the league in steals, while being the most important part of that strange centerless donut defense.

When I watch New York, I see OG all over the place putting out fires. Not only is he lockdown against most players, but he's capable of really long rotations, tracking the ball across the floor and blocking 3-pointers off long passes. It really popped off the screen to me when New York's defense was worse, and there were so many fires to put out. They've been much more solid lately, and OG's on/off has come back down to earth on defense. They're really high right now due to offense, which I don't think it makes sense to give him full credit for that. He plays with the starters a lot, so he gets that big offensive boost and takes a defensive penalty.

[Mavrelous]

It's over, hand him the award

Read on Twitter

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[Crunch 99]

Can Caruso make all defense as a 20 mpg guy?

His defensive EPM is 2nd in the league.

Carusuo has been doo doo all season, this man can't get a rhythm going offensively.

He’s been the best defensive non-big

If we are going to talk about low mpg guards, Kris Dunn deserves honorable mention. He's ranked #10 in Est Def EPM, the number two guard behind Caruso, and unlike Caruso, he is doing it against starters. He helps the Clips set some defensive tone to start games, allowing backcourt mate Harden to focus on running the offense, like Dyson allows Young to focus on running the offense.

[Curmudgeon]

I guess the person who constructed this poll never saw Derrick White or Jrue Holiday play.

[cupcakesnake]

I guess the person who constructed this poll never saw Derrick White or Jrue Holiday play.

There's only 10 spots in the poll and there are more than 10 guys that deserve consideration.
Rather than whine about the poll, we could just talk about how/why White and Jrue are awesome at defense.

[Iwasawitness]

I guess the person who constructed this poll never saw Derrick White or Jrue Holiday play.

There's only 10 spots in the poll and there are more than 10 guys that deserve consideration.
Rather than whine about the poll, we could just talk about how/why White and Jrue are awesome at defense.

Whining is easier though.

[benhillboy]

I never been an OG fan. He has more lapses on tape in help situations than I care to see from a player of his reputation and he isn’t a sprinter in transition. I gotta throw his +14.7 on court per 100 with the Knicks in the garbage (that’s strictly Jokic territory for starters) when his career defensive box is a very pedestrian +0.6 with a limited offensive workload. Jimmy’s is 1.4 with an insane workload at his peak. Top tier bench guards get near +3 regularly. Fine defender no question but I’d much rather Amen or Dort.

What number are you referencing with "career defensive box". From 2020-2024 with the Raptors, the Raps are 4 points better on defense (per 100), and +6.4 overall, despite the Raptors generally being quite deep in terms of wing/forward defenders. Then there's the small sample (1722) minutes of New York OG being a ridiculous +14.8 (all numbers from pbpstats).

Not sure I see what you see with his help lapses. He's been mostly employed as the guy who defends the star and sticks him tight, but in his last full year in Toronto (before they brough back Poeltl), OG was used as the primary help defender, waiting in the center of the floor to stop the opponents from getting the ball to the weakside of the overload. He was incredible in that role, leading the league in steals, while being the most important part of that strange centerless donut defense.

When I watch New York, I see OG all over the place putting out fires. Not only is he lockdown against most players, but he's capable of really long rotations, tracking the ball across the floor and blocking 3-pointers off long passes. It really popped off the screen to me when New York's defense was worse, and there were so many fires to put out. They've been much more solid lately, and OG's on/off has come back down to earth on defense. They're really high right now due to offense, which I don't think it makes sense to give him full credit for that. He plays with the starters a lot, so he gets that big offensive boost and takes a defensive penalty.

Defensive, offensive, and total box plus/ minus is on Basketball Reference’s Advanced Stats tab. Along with usage, rebound %, FT rate and all that jazz. Tari Eason leads the entire league as of now at +3.9 followed by Kris Dunn, Sengun, SGA, and Jokic.
6-20:
Cason
Wembanyama
J Dub
Bitazde
Amen
Day Day
Dyson Daniels
KCP
Giannis
Ben Simmons
Lively
Conley
Jaden Mack
Jake Laravia (one of the most underrated players going)
Rudy rounds out the Top 20

Its a singular, flawed metric like all the others but it checks out more times than not based on my eyes over the years. In the most simplest terms I like to think of it as a barometer for how well a player is positioned off ball and how consistently he forces players into negative passes that decrease the probability of a high percentage shot.

OG gets knocked here mostly due to his rebounding, and I agree with that. I’m sure by design he isn’t in rebounding/ box out positions, I still can’t grant a pass on that seeing how terribly important I think it is regardless of scheme at his size.

[cupcakesnake]

Defensive, offensive, and total box plus/ minus is on Basketball Reference’s Advanced Stats tab. Along with usage, rebound %, FT rate and all that jazz. Tari Eason leads the entire league as of now at +3.9 followed by Kris Dunn, Sengun, SGA, and Jokic.
6-20:
Cason
Wembanyama
J Dub
Bitazde
Amen
Day Day
Dyson Daniels
KCP
Giannis
Ben Simmons
Lively
Conley
Jaden Mack
Jake Laravia (one of the most underrated players going)
Rudy rounds out the Top 20

Its a singular, flawed metric like all the others but it checks out more times than not based on my eyes over the years. In the most simplest terms I like to think of it as a barometer for how well a player is positioned off ball and how consistently he forces players into negative passes that decrease the probability of a high percentage shot.

OG gets knocked here mostly due to his rebounding, and I agree with that. I’m sure by design he isn’t in rebounding/ box out positions, I still can’t grant a pass on that seeing how terribly important I think it is regardless of scheme at his size.

I don't think you can use a metric to determine help defense. Deflections and turnover generation can be useful for figuring out how active a guy is and if he's a "defensive playmaker", but can't tell the whole story. There are elite help defenders who are more about making good rotations and cutting off actions in a way that doesn't generate a stat.

Overall, most "catch all" defensive metrics love OG. craftedNBA has a metric where they combine DARKO, LEBRON, DRIP, BPM, and RAPM. For the defensive side of that, OG ranks in the 94th percentile. These stats are all good, but looking at just one of these lists it becomes pretty clear how there's lots of stuff the numbers don't understand. I promise you Mike Conley isn't the best defensive player in Minnesota, Shai isn't the best in OKC, and Jokic isn't better at defense than Wemby and Rudy.

OG in New York has a bit of a strange role. They task him with star matchups, but also put him in long rotations. Very different from how Nurse used him in Toronto, but he's still massively effective. I can't look at OG's numbers or tape and not think he's clearly one of the most disruptive defensive forwards in the NBA.

[MrPainfulTruth]

I thnk AD is playing amazing on both ends of the floor this season. Sad to see him be disrespected once again.

[CoP]

Caruso
Daniels
J.Williams
Mobley
Wemby

HM: AD, Thompson, Brooks, Draymond, Isaac, Gobert, Dunn, JJJ