Post Mortem #7 - Toronto Raptors

[ItsDanger]

Roster is low upside, capped out, with significant downside risk currently. Management is adverse to doing a complete rebuild and has chosen to retool quickly. However, they forget NBA is a talent driven league and the best way to acquire that top end talent is via draft. No patience though. Instead, they'll rely on a trade(s). But that relies on other teams willing to trade with you.

[oldncreaky]

The Raptors are one of the most curious cases in the NBA today. What is the goal? Will they go for POs next year? Were they going for the POs this year?
I mean you don't have BI, Quickley, Barrett, Poetl and then the youngster in Barnes on a roster and say you're rebuilding.
Some nice pieces and a decent coach, but when does that translate into something?

On a completely unrelated note I think the Raps should trade for DDR to bring him home. To allow the all time leader in many categories for the Raps, put even more room between the #1 and #2 on their all time...missed field goal list, games, field goals, FT/FTA, hitting a basket with a toe on the line, and also the scoring list. I mean he would most likely add another #1 ranking in the all time Raps list, TOs too. If he plays the last year he will smash it. Think it makes the most sense and I believe the Kings would see the nostalgic viewpoint of this and be comfortable trading him for whatever the Raps want to give. Hopefully a top 55 protected 2nd.

Yeah this is a team where I'm mostly just curious what others think. I can't say I'd fire Masai so I'm really just curious how he's seeing things right now.

It's interesting. Early in the Lowry Era, the Raptors became a team that seemed to consistently (cross coach) over-perform their talent. Then, beginning in Lowry's final year (which was pandemic year), feels like they consistently underperform it.

LIke they need Ted Lasso to walk in that locker room.

I think we were too good to truly tank this year, but injuries and Scottie's shooting really underperformed our potential. We played pretty good D for like half the year, and if we're actually healthy, we have pretty decent depth and what'll probably be some surprising (but certainly not elite) offense.

Barnes had one of the worst volume scoring seasons of the 21st century, which was problematic, so that raises a few questions which the team will have to answer next season. BI should help. Quickley being semi-healthy should help. SOme of the kids look like they have potential, and maybe a decent step forward from Gradey might be of assistance? We'll have to see. Masai has the potential to pop off a random trade at any time, so there's always that to look forward to as well.

Mostly agree

But I also see the Raptors as mostly small, quite young, and without enough solid 2-way players to be anything more than a 1st round exit in the playoffs. Poeltl is the only big worth mentioning, and if he's out of the line-up for rest/injury/fouls TOR looks like a lottery team. I think Poeltl is severely underrated by casual fans and underpaid, but the only other rotation-worthy player with size is Scottie -- and that's just not good enough. To make matters worse, by paying 2/3 of the salary cap to BI+RJ+IQ, they don't even have financial room to shore up the front court for at least next season.

[VFX]

I won’t call them treadmill because they haven’t yet been middle of the road.

So they are a middle of the road team next season. Treadmill if they don’t exceed expectations after next season.

[pipfan]

I think there's solid talent here-they could probably use Harper more than anyone
IQ/Barrett/BI/Barnes/Poeltl
Dick/Walter/Ochai main bench is solid

Problem is, this team's ceiling is 2nd round, if everything goes right.

[tsherkin]

But I also see the Raptors as mostly small, quite young, and without enough solid 2-way players to be anything more than a 1st round exit in the playoffs. Poeltl is the only big worth mentioning, and if he's out of the line-up for rest/injury/fouls TOR looks like a lottery team. I think Poeltl is severely underrated by casual fans and underpaid, but the only other rotation-worthy player with size is Scottie -- and that's just not good enough. To make matters worse, by paying 2/3 of the salary cap to BI+RJ+IQ, they don't even have financial room to shore up the front court for at least next season.

We're definitely young. We have some good defenders. We were quite literally just the 3rd-best D in the league over the last 44 games. We had a soft, super soft schedule and there were a lot of tanking teams, so I don't confuse that with the idea that we are a top-5 defense going into next season, but we're better on D than our seasonal 17th place rank suggests. Scottie's good. Poeltl's good. Quick is good. Some of our young guys were pretty good. Elite? No. Health concerns? Absolutely. Is Ingram, coming in, a high-end defender? No. But we should be passable. Our real concern is offensive.

Poeltl is definitely underrated. Mogbo has potential for us. Castleton looked decent in a short sample. Scottie's there. We definitely don't have a ton of size, though to me, that's not the largest concern for us as we battle back to relevance in the conference. It'll eventually become a problem against teams which can exploit it, but there are only so many of those.

Meantime, I expect to see a lot of PF Scottie next year, so we'll see how that affects things. We aren't a 50-win team next year. We may not even be a 45-win team. But we won 30 games with the 4th-worst offense in the league and a mediocre D. We should be better on D over the balance of the season next year, and we should be considerably better on offense. That suggests we should be thinking low-40s, ish. And depending on exactly where that seeds us, we might even potentially be a 6-game series in the first round.

And all that depends on Masai not doing anything over the offseason, of course.

[Pointgod]

If Toronto ends up being a 45 win team next year, a superstar could be traded there to push them over the top.

And betweey Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, Ingram and Poeltl there is enough salary and talent to start the trade.

They have a lot of youth to package in - Ochai, Dick, Walter, Shead, Mogbo, Battle, top 10 pick

They have all their 1sts.

It’s not 2019 anymore. The price for a stars has gone up massively and we don’t have the ammo to compete. There are multiple teams laying in wait for a star who a) have more assets than us b) are in more desirable locations or c) have both. If a star becomes available how are we outbidding teams like OKC, HOU, SAS, BKN, etc?

We are not a front runner when it comes to assets. We are not a front runner when it comes to location. How are we competing when it comes to bidding for a star?

Nobody matches OKC. But they're the title favourites anyways, maybe they don't buy the next superstar.
Houston has a good shot, they may run into a matching salary issue.

But how are SAS and BKN ahead of us?

Sure SAS has Wemby, but they don't want to deal Wemby or Castle, so they have worse actual assets.
BKN has worste assets than us.

SAS has 8 first round picks over the next 6 years including two lottery picks in this draft. They also have more picks from Atlanta and either Mavs or Wolves in 2030 which looks to be pretty good. From a young talent standpoint they have Castle (most likely rookie of the year), Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan. Plus they have expiring contracts.

Brooklyn has less young talent (only Cam Thomas and Cam Johnson have a lot of value) but they have 14 first round picks over the next 6 years including a lottery pick and 3 first round picks this year. Plus they have a huge amount of cap space which means instant savings.

We have 7 picks over the next 6 years and a lottery pick in this draft, young guys like Dick, Walter, Agbaji who have some value but we don’t have any young players with value like Castle, Vassell, Cam Thomas or Cam Johnson unless we’re talking about putting Scottie in a trade.

Remember, even KD was traded for Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and 4 unprotected first round picks. And this is post Achilles Durant who was 34 years old. I think you’re underestimating how much it will take to get a superstar in their prime. And I haven’t even factored in other teams like the Jazz who have at worst a top 5 pick in this draft and an absurd amount of draft capital and young players and expiring contracts.

[YogurtProducer]

I don't understand the plan. They're paying top dollar for a mid-team. If they get lucky in the lottery, maybe their future looks better but right now they look like a 6th seed at absolute best.

They are doing a two timeline approach and have a view that it's more about environment and culture rather than raw talent when it comes to prospects and developing stars.

I don't buy that the "two timelines" ever really works. There's one notable example in the Spurs who were realistically just lucky to go from one HOF big to another. Most other examples of it seem to fail.

That said, if the idea is to be competent and trade for a disgruntled star...sure, I could see that. And focusing on culture is good in general.

How are we two timelines when most of our core is younger then 24?

[cupcakesnake]

This just didn't feel like a real season with all the overlapping injuries, so it's hard to know what kind of real team Toronto is.

I hope we get a better look next year at this Quickley/RJ/Ingram/Barnes/Poeltl lineup. The team is full of younger veterans now so there's no more tanking to do. The defensive potential is high, and the offensive versatility is interesting. Multiple playmakers, and everyone can do something as a scorer.

I'm very unsure about Darko Rajakovic. I feel the fanbase has given him a lot of love for... being less grumpy than Nick Nurse. Nothing he's implemented on offense or defense has lasted long. It's been a chaotic environment, so I'm fine with the benefit of the doubt, but this team needs to actually be a real team next year if healthy, or I'll assume there's a coaching problem.

Toronto has to join the young middle class of the East next year: Magic, Pistons, Pacers. If they can't do that, they've got to pivot into some kind of direction because they're paying this core like it's a real team, but sort of acting like they're in the midst of a rebuild. If this team is pretty good... they've got it locked in for a while.

Hopefully they get something nice in the draft his year, and a few of their young guys pop. I like Gradey Dick and Jonathan Mogbo.

[Clay Davis]

If Scottie's offense catches up with his defense, that's Kawhi territory rizz.

[babyjax13]

Keeping the FO winning is really wild to me. Since getting Kawhi, what good decisions have they made? Drafting Scottie was good ... but the Poeltl trade, trading Siakam too late, the OG trade, paying too many above-average but not great players (some of these contracts are okay, all of them is terrible), etc. etc. They are on a path to nowhere and the FO has had a stagnant, failed philosophy with no adaptation for years.

[Thaddy]

Keeping the FO winning is really wild to me. Since getting Kawhi, what good decisions have they made? Drafting Scottie was good ... but the Poeltl trade, trading Siakam too late, the OG trade, paying too many above-average but not great players (some of these contracts are okay, all of them is terrible), etc. etc. They are on a path to nowhere and the FO has had a stagnant, failed philosophy with no adaptation for years.

The net return so far.

Siakam = Ingram, Walter, and Shead.
OG = IQ, Barrett, and Mogbo.

They definitely have good NBA players on their team if you look at Poeltl, Ingram, Barrett, and IQ. That rounds out their starters. But the under the radar moves are what they've done to their bench. It's been completely revamped.

They went from Trent Jr, Achiuwa, Flynn, OPJ, Thad Young, and other over the hill bad players to a pretty good group consisting of:

Shead, Dick, Walter, Mogbo, Battle, Agbaji, a top 10 lottery pick, and a high 2nd rounder.

Battle led all rookies in 3P%, Shead was top 5 in assists off the bench, Walter grew over the year, and Dick's flashing good signs with multiple 20 and even 30 point games. Agbaji was the 2nd most improved C&S player in the league. Mogbo is the only rookie this year to get a triple double, he also showed he can hit the 3 and is adding it to his game.

I would say the Raptors are on a pretty good trajectory. They've shown in the last decade they can develop good 2nd round picks like Powell and Fred, and it looks like they're going to do it again now.

Sure they could have tanked harder but where has that gotten teams like the Jazz. The lottery is a crapshoot and it's more about scouting and developing players than demoralizing them in a tank. They're going to look to improve by putting together a consolidation trade for a star player to continue improving their starting 5 and adding talent through the draft.

[babyjax13]

Keeping the FO winning is really wild to me. Since getting Kawhi, what good decisions have they made? Drafting Scottie was good ... but the Poeltl trade, trading Siakam too late, the OG trade, paying too many above-average but not great players (some of these contracts are okay, all of them is terrible), etc. etc. They are on a path to nowhere and the FO has had a stagnant, failed philosophy with no adaptation for years.

The net return so far.

Siakam = Ingram, Walter, and Shead.
OG = IQ, Barrett, and Mogbo.

They definitely have good NBA players on their team if you look at Poeltl, Ingram, Barrett, and IQ. That rounds out their starters. But the under the radar moves are what they've done to their bench. It's been completely revamped.

They went from Trent Jr, Achiuwa, Flynn, OPJ, Thad Young, and other over the hill bad players to a pretty good group consisting of:

Shead, Dick, Walter, Mogbo, Battle, Agbaji, a top 10 lottery pick, and a high 2nd rounder.

Battle led all rookies in 3P%, Shead was top 5 in assists off the bench, Walter grew over the year, and Dick's flashing good signs with multiple 20 and even 30 point games. Agbaji was the 2nd most improved C&S player in the league. Mogbo is the only rookie this year to get a triple double, he also showed he can hit the 3 and is adding it to his game.

I would say the Raptors are on a pretty good trajectory. They've shown in the last decade they can develop good 2nd round picks like Powell and Fred, and it looks like they're going to do it again now.

Sure they could have tanked harder but where has that gotten teams like the Jazz. The lottery is a crapshoot and it's more about scouting and developing players than demoralizing them in a tank. They're going to look to improve by putting together a consolidation trade for a star player to continue improving their starting 5 and adding talent through the draft.

We dont know the results of Utah's rebuild because it didnt start in earnest until this year. I'm not a fan of Ainge, though, and never have been.

That return for OG is disgusting. RJ is a horrible, bloated contract for a mediocre player and then they paid IQ above market value to keep him (I think he has the potential to play up to it, but you can't give everyone on your roster massive contracts on potential alone).

The Ingram trade I wouldn't mind, but they are going to be paying he, Poeltl, Barrett, and Quickley basically up to the salary cap. They've put themselves in a pretty bad financial situation for a team that has the upside of the play in. I think they would have been better off just not dealing for Ingram. And what do they do with RJ now, bench him?

They traded a first for Agbaji, that was a bad deal. They drafted some rotation guys in the second round, awesome. They could have bought similar picks so I dont really see that as a noteworthy part of the return here because they would hopefully make those choices anyway. This core (Scottie + IQ + Ingram) will never be a top team in the east.

[Thaddy]

We dont know the results of Utah's rebuild because it didnt start in earnest until this year. I'm not a fan of Ainge, though, and never have been.

That return for OG is disgusting. RJ is a horrible, bloated contract for a mediocre player and then they paid IQ above market value to keep him (I think he has the potential to play up to it, but you can't give everyone on your roster massive contracts on potential alone).

The Ingram trade I wouldn't mind, but they are going to be paying he, Poeltl, Barrett, and Quickley basically up to the salary cap. They've put themselves in a pretty bad financial situation for a team that has the upside of the play in. I think they would have been better off just not dealing for Ingram. And what do they do with RJ now, bench him?

They traded a first for Agbaji, that was a bad deal. They drafted some rotation guys in the second round, awesome. They could have bought similar picks so I dont really see that as a noteworthy part of the return here because they would hopefully make those choices anyway. This core (Scottie + IQ + Ingram) will never be a top team in the east.

I think Ainge is a bad scout. The Agbaji / Olynyk trade was a steal for Toronto and it made the Siakam net look even better. Agbaji shot 50/40/70 this year and was the 2nd most improved catch and shoot player in the league. The post below was made on the Raptors board.

Among 128 players who took >= 200 3PTA C&S, he was 49th and Battle was 48th in 3PT%. Among 247 players who took >= 100 3PTA C&S, he was 90th, Battle was 87th in 3PT%. Not bad for a team that shot 25th in the L in them, despite being 11th in volume.

According to Schuhmann, LA was 37.4%. That means (not accounting for SSS), Ingram/Boucher/Dick/Battle/Agbaji were the only ones above LA. JaKobe was LA, and IQ just abit under.

RJ isn't horrible. He was a toxic contract before Toronto but he's improved his stats by taking better shots and playing within the offense. His assist numbers have rose along with his shooting percentages. He isn't a core piece but that kind of improvement shows that something is working.

Acquiring Shead, Walter, Agbaji, and Mogbo was all possible due to the trades they made and being strategic with contracts and trade exemptions they had. If they didn't make those trades it is unlikely they could have bought these picks. Chomche was the only pick they bought and it was the 58th pick...

Toronto could have made the play in this year if they played to their full strength and forced Barnes into a smaller offensive role and brought back BI sooner. Toronto also didn't deliberately play Boucher, their best bench vet, because they were developing Mogbo and their rookies. We saw a lot of our rookies and prospects taking shots they normally wouldn't in a competitive year. They finished as the 11th seed anyway. Adding BI, a top 10 pick, and another year of development for their prospects should make them the youngest playoff team in the East next year.

[3toheadmelo]

First move would be to trade RJ

[Johnston]

I don't understand the plan. They're paying top dollar for a mid-team. If they get lucky in the lottery, maybe their future looks better but right now they look like a 6th seed at absolute best.

They are doing a two timeline approach and have a view that it's more about environment and culture rather than raw talent when it comes to prospects and developing stars.

I don't buy that the "two timelines" ever really works. There's one notable example in the Spurs who were realistically just lucky to go from one HOF big to another. Most other examples of it seem to fail.

That said, if the idea is to be competent and trade for a disgruntled star...sure, I could see that. And focusing on culture is good in general.

The raptors won in 2019 with 2 timelines. Take a look at the ages on their roster.

[Johnston]

I don't think most of the ppl commenting on this thread have watched the raptors at all this year. I projected a 25-35 win season based on how bit they were with the injury bug. The season was spend extensively on building culture, chemistry and developing talent. As far as guys saying "trade player x" etc, the core has played so few games together and on top of that not trying to actively win games. I think Ingram and Barnes will work on the wings together. RJ is a huge mismatch at the 2. Above all their defense looked very good after the all star break. They need to consolidate and get a bit more size. They will be a playoff team next season unless 50% of their roster is injured for the season again.

[djsunyc]

just an fyi but the final 44 games of the season (since jan11), raptors had the 3rd best defense in the league behind okc and clippers. flip side is during that time, they also had the 5th worse offense with a net rating of almost zero.

expectations next year, imho, will be to contend for a playoff spot. we will see how the draft and summer transactions work out.

[mack_435]

Absolutely terrible rebuild. Likely finish 7-10 in east next year. Poeltl, Barnes, Barrett, Ingram, Quickley, isn’t near enough shooting or defence. No true #1 option. Not really young. Not a lot of upside. Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Detroit. All with more star power, a true # 1 and around the same age. New York isn’t an old team either. Barnes not really improving much

[meekrab]

They have 4 huge contracts for guys who play like first options but should be 2nd or 3rd.

[BlackThought]

This is a treadmill team unless they luck out on May 12.