Postmortem #16: Miami Heat

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Select one of each option (4 total questions)

Q1) Keep Front Office
39
13%
Q1) Change Front Office (who?)
37
12%
Q2) Keep Head Coach
65
21%
Q2) Change Head Coach (who?)
10
3%
Q3) Performed better than Expected
2
1%
Q3) Performed as Expected
34
11%
Q3) Performed worse than Expected
42
14%
Q4) Improving team
2
1%
Q4) Treadmill team
29
9%
Q4) Declining team
50
16%
 
Total votes: 310

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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#61 » by Bornstellar » Tue Apr 29, 2025 3:43 pm

Ruma85 wrote:
shi-woo wrote:They didn't get enough in the Butler trade, very Kawhii for Derozen vibes. That might haunt them for a while. But as we know, MIA is the LA of the East, so it's just a matter of time before they ultimately get their big break. They traded for win now guys, and made a few other sneaky moves which will pay dividends. They are a team full of solid 4th and 5th starters wwith 2 low level allstars on it. They aren't in a bad situation. I'd keep everything, and just look to improve the team and accumulate assets.

I like the idea of playing big with Ware and Bam, and think that is the foundation i'm building the next Heat team on for now. Especially with Bam finally becoming a consistent floor spacer, having two dudes that can protect the rim, guard multiple positions, and bomb from distance is going to be huge for this team. I think people over rate Ware, but I do like him as a prospect, and think he can because a solid 15-10 guy as early as next year.

Herro is just entering his prime, and is looking like a solid AS level GS that can do everything on the offensive side of the ball. Ultimately he's an awesome #2, but he is def. a solid piece to have moving forward.

Heat need to bring back Davion, it might have just been a hot stretch of 30 games, but he also looked like he belonged out there in the playoffs just buy looking at his boxscores (i didn't watch these blowouts sorry). He's shooting the ball well, playing D, and getting others involved. He's been a nobody for most of his career, so he's probably going to be on a team friendly deal, and could easily go to a 6th man role if needed.

The main thing this Heat team needs to do is try and turn the expirering contracts of Robinson and Terry into something, anything, that can impact winning. Terry needs to go yesterday, and is just hurting this team.

First thing I'm doing is seeing what Ainge wants for either Sexton or Collins. I'm offering #20 and one of those two expirerings, and if he takes it great, my team now has more shooting, and a legit 6th man type off the bench.

#20 and Rozier for Collins or #20 and Duncan for Sexton.

I would look to swap those salaries and potentially move up in this draft. Trades like:

#20 and Duncan for #14 and Keldon Johnson. Move up and still get a rotation piece that I can trade in the future if nothing big is there this year. Magic are another team that doesn't really need their pick, and could do a Cole and #15 for Duncan trade. These are the types of moves i'm looking at, and am slowly improving at the margins till I can make that big splash to bring in that legit #1 option. All of my players are just entering their prime, and the team should be much much better next year with no distractions.

Ware
Bam- Anderson
Wiggins- Jovic- Highsmith
Herro- Sexton
Mitchell

I can live with that 9 man rotation for a year, as it can easily make the playoffs out East, and will have flexibility moving forward. This team needs to turn those large expirerings into something though, they can't just let those two walk for nothing. I trust Spo can make this team work on both sides of the floor and be a Top 12 defense, and a Top 15 offense.


#20 and Duncan for #14 and Keldon Johnson. Move up and still get a rotation piece that I can trade in the future if nothing big is there this year. Magic are another team that doesn't really need their pick, and could do a Cole and #15 for Duncan trade.

Why would the Spurs &Magic do this ^^


Agree. Guarantee Spurs aren't going to just dump Johnson, and especially not to move back 6 spots in the draft AND taking on Duncan Robinson. Magic desperately need shooters so there is some reasoning at least but I don't see them dumping Cole and 15 for Robinson
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#62 » by Ruma85 » Tue Apr 29, 2025 3:47 pm

Bornstellar wrote:
Ruma85 wrote:
shi-woo wrote:They didn't get enough in the Butler trade, very Kawhii for Derozen vibes. That might haunt them for a while. But as we know, MIA is the LA of the East, so it's just a matter of time before they ultimately get their big break. They traded for win now guys, and made a few other sneaky moves which will pay dividends. They are a team full of solid 4th and 5th starters wwith 2 low level allstars on it. They aren't in a bad situation. I'd keep everything, and just look to improve the team and accumulate assets.

I like the idea of playing big with Ware and Bam, and think that is the foundation i'm building the next Heat team on for now. Especially with Bam finally becoming a consistent floor spacer, having two dudes that can protect the rim, guard multiple positions, and bomb from distance is going to be huge for this team. I think people over rate Ware, but I do like him as a prospect, and think he can because a solid 15-10 guy as early as next year.

Herro is just entering his prime, and is looking like a solid AS level GS that can do everything on the offensive side of the ball. Ultimately he's an awesome #2, but he is def. a solid piece to have moving forward.

Heat need to bring back Davion, it might have just been a hot stretch of 30 games, but he also looked like he belonged out there in the playoffs just buy looking at his boxscores (i didn't watch these blowouts sorry). He's shooting the ball well, playing D, and getting others involved. He's been a nobody for most of his career, so he's probably going to be on a team friendly deal, and could easily go to a 6th man role if needed.

The main thing this Heat team needs to do is try and turn the expirering contracts of Robinson and Terry into something, anything, that can impact winning. Terry needs to go yesterday, and is just hurting this team.

First thing I'm doing is seeing what Ainge wants for either Sexton or Collins. I'm offering #20 and one of those two expirerings, and if he takes it great, my team now has more shooting, and a legit 6th man type off the bench.

#20 and Rozier for Collins or #20 and Duncan for Sexton.

I would look to swap those salaries and potentially move up in this draft. Trades like:

#20 and Duncan for #14 and Keldon Johnson. Move up and still get a rotation piece that I can trade in the future if nothing big is there this year. Magic are another team that doesn't really need their pick, and could do a Cole and #15 for Duncan trade. These are the types of moves i'm looking at, and am slowly improving at the margins till I can make that big splash to bring in that legit #1 option. All of my players are just entering their prime, and the team should be much much better next year with no distractions.

Ware
Bam- Anderson
Wiggins- Jovic- Highsmith
Herro- Sexton
Mitchell

I can live with that 9 man rotation for a year, as it can easily make the playoffs out East, and will have flexibility moving forward. This team needs to turn those large expirerings into something though, they can't just let those two walk for nothing. I trust Spo can make this team work on both sides of the floor and be a Top 12 defense, and a Top 15 offense.


#20 and Duncan for #14 and Keldon Johnson. Move up and still get a rotation piece that I can trade in the future if nothing big is there this year. Magic are another team that doesn't really need their pick, and could do a Cole and #15 for Duncan trade.

Why would the Spurs &Magic do this ^^


Agree. Guarantee Spurs aren't going to just dump Johnson, and especially not to move back 6 spots in the draft AND taking on Duncan Robinson. Magic desperately need shooters so there is some reasoning at least but I don't see them dumping Cole and 15 for Robinson


Sounds something on 2k trades override, not that Duncan is bad, his just not worth all that.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#63 » by ItsDanger » Tue Apr 29, 2025 3:50 pm

Its a mid roster.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#64 » by Clav » Tue Apr 29, 2025 5:44 pm

Chuck Everett wrote:These salaries are ugly (to me):

Adebayo: 37mm (plus 3 year extension starting at 51mm :sour: )
Herro: 29mm
Wiggins: 28mm
Rozier: 26mm
Robinson: 19.9mm

These are your highest paid players. You basically need Banchero/Wagner or Chet/J-Dub on rookie contracts to not feel like you're doomed.



Agree with the last bit --

Quick question for you Chuck -Duncan Robinson has an Early Termination Option (like, some sort of modernday amnesty) He can be waived and sent to UFA but MIA pays 9M next season to him, would you do that if you're Riley ? That's 10M right off the top of the books right there and only 1yr of dead money
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#65 » by MGB8 » Tue Apr 29, 2025 5:50 pm

The fact that Bam and Ware were completely dominated by Allen and Mobley is certainly discouraging, but Ware is a rookie and Bam, while not old, has a lot of miles on him. But, more than that, the team needs a distributor. Herro is not that. He’s a scorer, who can give you some assists - but he doesn’t run things to maximize other guys. Mitchell isn’t that, either. Wiggins is 3&D+. Honestly, Rozier was the closest thing to a guy who actually runs point on the roster, but he fell out of favor, then got hurt, and his play was certainly inconsistent this season.

It isn’t that easy to add a lead distributor to a team, but that, IMO, is the piece they are missing to be more competitive. Guy would need to be a 2-way lead, since Herro is a bit of a liability and you can’t afford two weak perimeter defenders. And even if they git that, absent the guy being a true superstar, it would not be enough to make the leap into a contention level team. But there are only a handful of those in the league, anyway, and not really a realistic goal for most teams.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#66 » by Jadoogar » Tue Apr 29, 2025 5:54 pm

I think this is the prime Durant destination but idk if that helps them enough
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#67 » by Chuck Everett » Tue Apr 29, 2025 5:55 pm

Clav wrote:
Chuck Everett wrote:These salaries are ugly (to me):

Adebayo: 37mm (plus 3 year extension starting at 51mm :sour: )
Herro: 29mm
Wiggins: 28mm
Rozier: 26mm
Robinson: 19.9mm

These are your highest paid players. You basically need Banchero/Wagner or Chet/J-Dub on rookie contracts to not feel like you're doomed.



Agree with the last bit --

Quick question for you Chuck -Duncan Robinson has an Early Termination Option (like, some sort of modernday amnesty) He can be waived and sent to UFA but MIA pays 9M next season to him, would you do that if you're Riley ? That's 10M right off the top of the books right there and only 1yr of dead money


Probably not because the 2026 pick next year is theirs. Even if they don't trade Adebayo, Wiggins or Herro, a soft tank may be in the cards, just from the current roster alone. Not to mention Duncan may need to be a salary ballast in a trade, if they continue to do the usual and re-tool. I honestly don't like waiving and stretching, especially now that every franchise must meet the salary floor per season. It also seems like in summer 2026 the Heat want capspace, so losing 10mm is probably a non-starter.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#68 » by Clav » Tue Apr 29, 2025 6:15 pm

Chuck Everett wrote:
Clav wrote:
Chuck Everett wrote:These salaries are ugly (to me):

Adebayo: 37mm (plus 3 year extension starting at 51mm :sour: )
Herro: 29mm
Wiggins: 28mm
Rozier: 26mm
Robinson: 19.9mm

These are your highest paid players. You basically need Banchero/Wagner or Chet/J-Dub on rookie contracts to not feel like you're doomed.



Agree with the last bit --

Quick question for you Chuck -Duncan Robinson has an Early Termination Option (like, some sort of modernday amnesty) He can be waived and sent to UFA but MIA pays 9M next season to him, would you do that if you're Riley ? That's 10M right off the top of the books right there and only 1yr of dead money


Probably not because the 2026 pick next year is theirs. Even if they don't trade Adebayo, Wiggins or Herro, a soft tank may be in the cards, just from the current roster alone. Not to mention Duncan may need to be a salary ballast in a trade, if they continue to do the usual and re-tool. I honestly don't like waiving and stretching, especially now that every franchise must meet the salary floor per season. it seems like in summer 2026 the Heat want capspace, so losing 10mm is probably a non-starter.



Fair point. I think now that they control their pick in 2026, they will have landing room now for one year reload and go at it again. 10M really isn't that much so I see that side of it.

I kind of like the ETO option but it's very uncommon to see [I haven't seen it yet since looking at teams contracts for this thread series]. I should say I like it if I'm angling from an executive's mindset of team flexibility, it's like a small eraser if something goes sideways. As a player, it seems like players would never want to sign this. (well, Robinson's previous year's average salary at ~$20M is probably why they got him to agree)
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#69 » by Chuck Everett » Tue Apr 29, 2025 6:21 pm

Clav wrote:
Chuck Everett wrote:
Clav wrote:

Agree with the last bit --

Quick question for you Chuck -Duncan Robinson has an Early Termination Option (like, some sort of modernday amnesty) He can be waived and sent to UFA but MIA pays 9M next season to him, would you do that if you're Riley ? That's 10M right off the top of the books right there and only 1yr of dead money


Probably not because the 2026 pick next year is theirs. Even if they don't trade Adebayo, Wiggins or Herro, a soft tank may be in the cards, just from the current roster alone. Not to mention Duncan may need to be a salary ballast in a trade, if they continue to do the usual and re-tool. I honestly don't like waiving and stretching, especially now that every franchise must meet the salary floor per season. it seems like in summer 2026 the Heat want capspace, so losing 10mm is probably a non-starter.



Fair point. I think now that they control their pick in 2026, they will have landing room now for one year reload and go at it again. 10M really isn't that much so I see that side of it.

I kind of like the ETO option but it's very uncommon to see [I haven't seen it yet since looking at teams contracts for this thread series]. I should say I like it if I'm angling from an executive's mindset of team flexibility, it's like a small eraser if something goes sideways. As a player, it seems like players would never want to sign this. (well, Robinson's previous year's average salary at ~$20M is probably why they got him to agree)


You know, I misread this, not realizing that Duncan is only partially guaranteed. My apologies. Wouldn't shock me if he's moved before or during the draft if some other team is looking to push 10million off their books for next season. The NBA salary structure is kind of all jacked up due some of these legacy extensions. It's hard to get a feel for the cap and the aprons until the numbers are official.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#70 » by jowglenn » Tue Apr 29, 2025 6:50 pm

I think Pat Riley should hang it up. He's 80 years old, and this was a downright embarrassing season. The entire drama between him and Jimmy just got uglier and uglier. Even without that drama, the team wasn't going anywhere.

Time for a new direction of some kind. Clearly the end of an era. I think they should trade Bam and retool ASAP, and I don't think Pat Riley needs to go through another rebuild. Not necessarily a "tear down to the studs" situation - I think Herro, Ware, Jovic, Jaquez are all find to keep around. But no more pretension of being a playoff team. Time for Riley to retire. Trade off Bam, any other moves to do a bit of a reset, then in a year recalibrate and revamp.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#71 » by ___Rand___ » Tue Apr 29, 2025 9:48 pm

facothomas22 wrote:I think the Heat should just trade all of their best players to begin a full rebuild. However I have a feeling they will get in the Giannis sweepstakes and try to use Bam Adebayo + assets in order to get him.


There's no point in getting Giannis. Heat doesn't have a roster for him.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#72 » by durden_tyler » Tue Apr 29, 2025 10:58 pm

hauntedcomputer wrote:Yikes, Bam about to start a $53 mil a year as he's regressing?
I'd play out Herro and Wiggins, no need to extend and cheap enough to play for now. Herro's okay for a one-way gunner but once you start paying him $40+ you are done.
And you don't want to pay the price for dumping Rozier so may as well let him expire.

Everything stinks here but Ware and the emergence of Davion Mitchell (gotta keep him( and Jovic.

If someone overpays for Mitchell, he’s gone. It won’t be the Heat, who are historically good in not handing out bad contracts.


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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#73 » by f4p » Tue Apr 29, 2025 11:52 pm

I just looked at herro's playoff stats. For the last 5 years, he's in the running for worst playoff performer ever, when you combine drop from the regular season and absolute stats.

In the last 5 years

Regular season: 16.4 PER, 57.1 TS%, 0.086 WS48, 1.0 BPM

Nothing amazing, but solid considering those include age 21/22/23.

But playoffs: 11.2 PER, 49.8 TS%, -0.026 WS48, -2.1 BPM.

Declines of -5.2 PER, 7.3 TS% (!!), -0.112 WS48, -3.1 BPM.

Those are some of the largest declines ever (well compared to the top 40 or 50 ATGs I have numbers for ) and to go deep negative on win shares and 11 on PER is crazy for a 25 game sample. His rookie season keeps the overall decline from being quite so historic but obviously not good that it's getting worse, not better with the last 2 seasons being terrible.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#74 » by meekrab » Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:28 am

Ruma85 wrote:
hauntedcomputer wrote:Yikes, Bam about to start a $53 mil a year as he's regressing?
I'd play out Herro and Wiggins, no need to extend and cheap enough to play for now. Herro's okay for a one-way gunner but once you start paying him $40+ you are done.
And you don't want to pay the price for dumping Rozier so may as well let him expire.

Everything stinks here but Ware and the emergence of Davion Mitchell (gotta keep him( and Jovic.


They should shop bam for a top 5 pick, the way he played last night was disgusting.

Which team picking top 5 (hell, top 15?) wants a supermax 3rd option?
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#75 » by Flash4thewin » Wed Apr 30, 2025 1:15 am

Jadoogar wrote:I think this is the prime Durant destination but idk if that helps them enough


Durant saw the playoffs, no way he voluntarily comes here to end his career. Just makes no sense for him wanting to win.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#76 » by Chuck Everett » Wed Apr 30, 2025 1:35 am

f4p wrote:I just looked at herro's playoff stats. For the last 5 years, he's in the running for worst playoff performer ever, when you combine drop from the regular season and absolute stats.

In the last 5 years

Regular season: 16.4 PER, 57.1 TS%, 0.086 WS48, 1.0 BPM

Nothing amazing, but solid considering those include age 21/22/23.

But playoffs: 11.2 PER, 49.8 TS%, -0.026 WS48, -2.1 BPM.

Declines of -5.2 PER, 7.3 TS% (!!), -0.112 WS48, -3.1 BPM.

Those are some of the largest declines ever (well compared to the top 40 or 50 ATGs I have numbers for ) and to go deep negative on win shares and 11 on PER is crazy for a 25 game sample. His rookie season keeps the overall decline from being quite so historic but obviously not good that it's getting worse, not better with the last 2 seasons being terrible.


In the playoffs, he gets relentlessly hunted on defense. It's bad.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#77 » by Ruma85 » Wed Apr 30, 2025 2:05 am

meekrab wrote:
Ruma85 wrote:
hauntedcomputer wrote:Yikes, Bam about to start a $53 mil a year as he's regressing?
I'd play out Herro and Wiggins, no need to extend and cheap enough to play for now. Herro's okay for a one-way gunner but once you start paying him $40+ you are done.
And you don't want to pay the price for dumping Rozier so may as well let him expire.

Everything stinks here but Ware and the emergence of Davion Mitchell (gotta keep him( and Jovic.


They should shop bam for a top 5 pick, the way he played last night was disgusting.

Which team picking top 5 (hell, top 15?) wants a supermax 3rd option?


I don't know, but at least pick up the phone.
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#78 » by Pablo Escobar » Wed Apr 30, 2025 2:07 am

durden_tyler wrote:
Pablo Escobar wrote:Should've paid Jimmy G.

Still a first round exit.


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Not sure man Jimmy takes it to another level. While it's possible it'd be more respectable at least. No way they're getting blown out by 50+
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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#79 » by SlimShady83 » Wed Apr 30, 2025 2:10 am

Ruma85 wrote:
meekrab wrote:
Ruma85 wrote:
They should shop bam for a top 5 pick, the way he played last night was disgusting.

Which team picking top 5 (hell, top 15?) wants a supermax 3rd option?


I don't know, but at least pick up the phone.


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Re: Postmortem #16: Miami Heat 

Post#80 » by dakomish23 » Wed Apr 30, 2025 3:20 am

Short of getting Giannis & Durant in the offseason, I think I’d consider doing the full throat rebuild. Maximize return for Bam, maybe Herro too.
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