ConSarnit wrote:hugepatsfan wrote:I don't think the CBA is really hurting the Celtics. It's the Tatum injury. They re-signed everyone and set themselves up to pay a massive tax bill this year because they had a clear and obvious title window. But as much as people talk about their payroll, few realize how well they left themselves positioned for 2026-27 season not just to duck not the 2nd apron but the luxury tax altogether. Their (former, but still managing) owner came out and said how he doesn't think anyone will stay in the 2nd apron for more than 2 years because of the crippling basketball penalties around it but you can do it for those two years financially if the team is worth it on the court. They set themselves to stay over the 2nd apron for 3 years for a team very much worth it on the court, which is an extra year because some of the penalties were delayed that first year.
The "crunch" for the Celtics now is that because of the Tatum injury they probably have some urgency to duck 2nd apron and/or luxury tax now which they didn't really leave themselves feasible avenues to do so for this upcoming season. They never really factored in a season lost to injury for Tatum into their plans so now they either have to bite the bullet and still pay the costs this year or mortgage their future of assets to to get out of the high payroll a year earlier than they set themselves up to do.
John Hollinger (who is plugged into the league) has been reporting that it’s known that the Celtics were planning to dump salary this off-season for a year now so this doesn’t really line up with the idea that they are only doing it because of the Tatum injury.
Can you link me to that reporting?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5569914/2024/06/18/boston-celtics-salary-cap-nba-free-agency/Here's an article from after their title where he's reporting hearing that they planned to re-sign White and Hauser (like they did). He does allude to them being a favorite in 24-25 and then possibly facing some tough decisions.
And even so, then looking to dump salary this offseason doesn't necessarily conflict with how they seemed to have set up their timeline. They still would have needed to do that. As of right now, assuming they draft at #28 and #32 this year, sign those picks, and then draft at #28 again next year (which is probably about where they would have picked if not for Tatum injury) then they'd be about $7.8M above the projected tax line with 12 players signed by my calculations:
White / Pritchard
Holiday / Scheierman
Brown / Hauser / Walsh
Tatum
Queta
+ 2025 #28 pick, 2025 #32 pick, 2026 #28 pick
They'd still need to fill two more spots, likely via vet min, so add about $4-5M, so they'd need to clear probably $12-13M in salary. Their resources are also heavily allocated to the perimeter positions so reallocating would make sense too.
It's always easier to move money a year sooner than you need to clear it. It gets tougher when you're chasing the savings int he current year. For instance, if BOS tried to dump Hauser into a TPE or MLE this year they likely get nothing back, maybe even need to send a second. But if they moved him for an expiring player, then they accomplish the goal of clearing it off the books for next year except they probably get an asset back (provide the expiring player back is of the "filler" classification). Trading Jrue's 2026-27 salary for a guy immediately making $12M less would be potentially difficult, but easier to do now because you could trade him for about equal money back in the form of multiple players where one of them is expiring. Makes it an easier deal for the other team.
I expected some movement this offseason to get a head start on things and put themselves in position to make better value deals, but I doubt that without the Tatum injury they'd have made the type of heavily focused cost cutting moves I'd expect now. And while Hollinger and others may have pointed to them doing some tinkering, I don't think talks of a more comprehensive teardown were really heavily out there.