Shams: Christian Braun Agrees to 5-yr/$125M Extension with the Denver Nuggets

[reload141]

What I find amusing is when people say “overrated” “this player is better” etc etc

Okay, well let’s say Denver doesn’t sign Braun. Given their cap space (or lack thereof) realistically who do they sign?

[LockoutSeason]

He’ll probably be Jokic’s first all-star teammate

[zimpy27]

How are "impact" stats not just modern advanced stats? VORP/BPM is just a box metric that tries to correlate with RAPM for example.

Neither VORP or BPM use plus-minus.

As a tip, plus-minus came out in 97. Any stats that can be calculated before 97 are advanced stats and don't at all involve plus-minus.

Just because basketball reference doesn't have modern advanced stats doesn't mean the more advanced stats we have today aren't "advanced stats".

edit

Just in case we're using different definitions. This is the wiki on advanced basketball stats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_statistics_in_basketball

I could change that wiki right now if I wanted to.

It's important to distinguish advanced from impact stats. Advanced are built on box score numbers to look at contribution to box stats, impact stats are built on plus-minus to look at contribution to winning or losing.

[aliasxn]

Damn, I hope this guy grows into an all-star

What I find amusing is when people say “overrated” “this player is better” etc etc

Okay, well let’s say Denver doesn’t sign Braun. Given their cap space (or lack thereof) realistically who do they sign?

That's a terrible way manage your cap, don't overpay people for just being competent. Then down the line you find a player you actually want but now you can't pay him because all your cap is tied up in a bunch of role-players who otherwise would've been valuable assets in a trade but now you can't even move them because nobody will take their salary.

[kane0801]

Good for him.

But is he good enough to start for a real championship contending team?

Denver is not a real championship contending team?

[og15]

What I find amusing is when people say “overrated” “this player is better” etc etc

Okay, well let’s say Denver doesn’t sign Braun. Given their cap space (or lack thereof) realistically who do they sign?

Happens all the time, people act like over the cap teams can just use the money as cap space or something

Good for him.

But is he good enough to start for a real championship contending team?

Does going to 7 games vs the eventual champs and having the best player in the league not count as being a championship contending team?

[BigGargamel]

He can play defense, cuts to the basket, is developing his 3 point shot, may be the best non point guard fast break player in the league. Very solid all around player and well worth 25 million a year. This wouldn't have been possible if Denver didn't get out from MPJ's contract.

Jokic may not have an All Star teammate, but Murray, Gordon, Braun and Johnson are all in that next tier. Still one of the best non-OKC starting lineups in the NBA. Feeling good about this season, health permitted.

[Deathray]

He can play defense, cuts to the basket, is developing his 3 point shot, may be the best non point guard fast break player in the league. Very solid all around player and well worth 25 million a year. This wouldn't have been possible if Denver didn't get out from MPJ's contract.

Jokic may not have an All Star teammate, but Murray, Gordon, Braun and Johnson are all in that next tier. Still one of the best non-OKC starting lineups in the NBA. Feeling good about this season, health permitted.

I think the Nuggets proved in the playoffs last year that they had the best starting lineup in the NBA and it's probably gotten better this year.

[dhsilv2]

Neither VORP or BPM use plus-minus.

As a tip, plus-minus came out in 97. Any stats that can be calculated before 97 are advanced stats and don't at all involve plus-minus.

Just because basketball reference doesn't have modern advanced stats doesn't mean the more advanced stats we have today aren't "advanced stats".

edit

Just in case we're using different definitions. This is the wiki on advanced basketball stats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_statistics_in_basketball

I could change that wiki right now if I wanted to.

It's important to distinguish advanced from impact stats. Advanced are built on box score numbers to look at contribution to box stats, impact stats are built on plus-minus to look at contribution to winning or losing.

But most stats these days use both. I don't see why the more advanced stat is not considered an advanced stat. And some like RAPTOR have even gone further to include spots vue data from the tracking cameras.

To me there are "dated advanced stats" such as PER. Modern advanced stats like RAPM. And then you have developing advanced stats which imo is what RAPTOR was going to be but never really got there before it was canned.

We should also add, plus minus data is actually literally in the box score today. They are an actual box metric. Now there's further depth where we have play by play data which is where we can better use those plus minus stats. But just like how we didn't have blocks or steals for Wilt. We don't have plus minus for say Magic and Bird. But this is all now a standard part of a box score.

[GeorgeSears]

He knows his role.

The next step for him is to become a more consistent shooter. If he can be 38%+ from 3, they're going to be hard to beat.

[knicksfan974]

Good for him.

But is he good enough to start for a real championship contending team?

Does going to 7 games vs the eventual champs and having the best player in the league not count as being a championship contending team?

Can you win the championship with him starting? Would he be the weakest starter in his position when compared to other real contending teams?

[AleksandarN]

But i was told he was just another trash teammate of Jokics’ and he wasn’t on the level of KCP from their championship team despite his numbers being better across the board and being way younger.

Who said CB was trash? I’m sure you can post links.

[Tor_Raps]

Meh... Nuggets could put a lot of players in Braun's spot to get production. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid but just not 125M good lol.

Jokic just make many his teammate getting paid---MPJ,KCP

Don't forget Bruce Brown lol

[AleksandarN]

He’ll probably be Jokic’s first all-star teammate

No. Murray will be this year

[Tor_Raps]

Meh... Nuggets could put a lot of players in Braun's spot to get production. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid but just not 125M good lol.

So you can name 90 or so better guys not on rookie contracts? Cause that's about where he ranks in pay for next year with this deal. 25 million a year is squarely in the 100-125th best player in the league zone.

I also hated the MPJ contract and the Jamal Murray contracts. The only good non jokic deal is Gordon for what he produces.

[dhsilv2]

Meh... Nuggets could put a lot of players in Braun's spot to get production. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid but just not 125M good lol.

So you can name 90 or so better guys not on rookie contracts? Cause that's about where he ranks in pay for next year with this deal. 25 million a year is squarely in the 100-125th best player in the league zone.

I also hated the MPJ contract and the Jamal Murray contracts. The only good non jokic deal is Gordon for what he produces.

I agree with all this.

But I've been corrected, Bruan is making 21 mil next year. That's 97th and so many deals on my checklist aren't done....

Like...he's paid like a guy who should be a good starter. Is that not fair? This is not a lot of money.

[HMFFL]

Meh... Nuggets could put a lot of players in Braun's spot to get production. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid but just not 125M good lol.

Sure!
Braun is just getting started. He is a 24 year old that needed to be on the higher priority list for Denver last season. Now, I expect to see it this season, and the Nuggets already realize he's a keeper. I would love to see a lot of players be able to shoot like him and he secures the rock.

[-Luke-]

So you can name 90 or so better guys not on rookie contracts? Cause that's about where he ranks in pay for next year with this deal. 25 million a year is squarely in the 100-125th best player in the league zone.

I also hated the MPJ contract and the Jamal Murray contracts. The only good non jokic deal is Gordon for what he produces.

I agree with all this.

But I've been corrected, Bruan is making 21 mil next year. That's 97th and so many deals on my checklist aren't done....

Like...he's paid like a guy who should be a good starter. Is that not fair? This is not a lot of money.

It's a very fair contract. That's what in 2010 NBA money? Like 8 million? For a guy who can defend, shoot pretty efficiently and has shown quality playoff performances as far back as his rookie season, that's a good deal for the Nuggets.

[Exp0sed]

Good for him.

But is he good enough to start for a real championship contending team?

Does going to 7 games vs the eventual champs and having the best player in the league not count as being a championship contending team?

Can you win the championship with him starting? Would he be the weakest starter in his position when compared to other real contending teams?

ofc you can and he won't even be close to the worst starter on a contender. EPM etc. put him at about the 50th best player in the NBA last season

he's a really good player, eyebrows were raised when the Nuggets let KCP walk in FA and their solution was to replace KCP with Braun and Braun was clearly by any metric or subjective take anyone can look at - was better than KCP last season (and he was just 23 years old)

rn Braun is close to an average #3 than he is to the weakest starter on a real contender

I think it's a fair argument to look at some of his success as being tied to his teammates and the "system"', that is: if you put CB tomorrow on a bottom feeder and let him cook, increase his on ball creation, usage, shot attemps etc - he'll likely won't be very good in that role but he is great in the role he has for Denver, a role that maximizes his strengths and mitigates his weaknesses

that is, within the confines of Denver's roster - he is extremely valuable and very productive in his current role. to this Denver team - he's def worth 25m a season and that's without even getting into the fact that they have no cap room and if he walks, they have no realistic way to replace his production

[Sixers in 4]

I feel if realgm were in charge 80 percent of the league would be making 20M+

The dilemma with Braun is he really hasn't demonstrated the consistency to show this kind of investment. One of the more frustrating parts of these types of discussions is they are always build on progression when the reality is young players also regress too.

This is a huge gamble for Denver that he can maintain those kind of efficiency numbers and that he will grow his game throughout the contract because he simply isn't worth 25M based on last season and last season is really the first year where he showed this kind of growth. I wouldn't have done the contract why not wait? Was this contract really not going to be there in a year? That is the main difference between Giddey and Braun is the Bulls didn't have much of a choice the Nuggets did. I would have waited.