Western Conference - who misses the playoffs?

[SabasRevenge!]

-= original quote snipped =-

I'm expecting POR to start sucking soon. They will not go .500 for the rest of the season. I just ranked SAC ahead of POR because I think they are a better team and will finish the season on a better note than POR. But my predictions aren't set in stone... after the trade deadline... I'll prolly change my rankings.

As a Blazers fan I'm curious why you're expecting them to start sucking soon or why they will not go .500 for the rest of the season. I'd appreciate feedback from anyone with reasons why they (as a young and growing team) will not go at least .500 in the second half (for 45 wins on the season) after a more difficult .600 first half.

[Napoleon7]

1. New Orleans (lock)
2. Phoenix (lock)
3. Dallas (lock)
4. Portland (has all tie-breakers currently with Utah & Denver will play a factor at end of season)
5. Utah (had a tough schedule early - playing very well lately)
6. San Antonio (need to survive there upcoming road trip)
7. Denver (players play allot of minutes - stamina may determine)
8. Houston (2nd toughes schedule to date - expect win pace to pick up)
9. Golden State (schedule tougher over the later games - should be a very close race spots 7-9)
10. Los Angeles (Bynum ingury will hurt)
11. Sacramento (will have a good run at the end, but can not make up enough ground)

[hermes]

wouldnt it be insanely weird if the Spurs miss the playoffs?

yes it would

[DmoneyH3]

I love the hate, makes you know you're doing something right.
The NW division will go down to the final wire. If Portland can both tiebreakers, they should get in. I don't all 3 NW teams will make it, but 2 will and the other spot will be between Houston an GSW.

[erudite23]

If we had this discussion 2 or 3 weeks ago, people would be predicting something like this:

1. Lakers
2. Phoenix
3. SA
4. Denver
5. Dallas
6. Portland
7. NO
8. GS

Everyone would have had the Lakers slotted as easily a top 3, maybe #1 overall team.

You all need to quit seeing things "in the moment" and allow larger and more broad team trends to determine how you think things will turn out.

The Hornets get hot, and now everyone is handing them a top 2 or 3 seed? They are something like 12-2 in January (read: red hot), and have climbed to #1.....BY A ONE GAME MARGIN. What about their play before that? How is it that they aren't 5 or 6 games ahead with the way they've been playing of late?

The Spurs go through a slump and everyone wants to put them in the bottom half. This is a team that has annually played less than stellar ball in the 1st half of the year before coming on like a tornado in the 2nd half. Don't you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt?

Dallas played poorly early in the season, led by Dirk's horrible November, but have been their usual elite selves since, and are with 2 games of the lead in the West right now.

Phoenix, despite all of their highly publicized problems, is still just a game out of the #1 seed, and last I checked Steve Nash is still dominating on a nightly basis.

Portland got hot, and a week or two ago would have been everyone's pick to win the Northwest. Now they go on a 7 game roadie and post a respectable 3-4 record and they are out of everyone's playoff picture?


My point is that you shouldn't blow with the breeze like this. New Orleans is a fine team, and will most likely be in the playoffs, but you don't put them as the #1 or 2 seed in all of the West just as their play peaks for the season. In a month, they will have suffered at least one significant injury, gone on at least a modest losing streak, and had some of their weaknesses exposed by teams who have had time to look at game film on them.

Meanwhile, the old guard of Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio will be in the mix, like always. Here's my playoff predictions:

1. Phoenix
2. Dallas
3. San Antonio
4. Utah (and they will have the 4th best record, as well)
5. New Orleans
6. LA Lakers
7. Houston
8. Denver

I see Denver just nudging out GS for the final playoff spot, and I see Portland going into a serious spiral and finishing under or around .500

[dalekjazz]

The Jazz haven't played the Timberwolves yet. That should be four automatic wins.

[amb1ent]

-= original quote snipped =-



Every time this is mentioned I want to .

Every time a Blazer fan brings up that quote by Allen I want to

Of course he's gonna say he'll support the Blazers and resign players as needed, but you guys are interpreting that statement as fact that Allen doesn't care about the luxury tax and will go the Dolan route of cap management if it makes the Blazers relevant.

[SabasRevenge!]

-= original quote snipped =-



Every time a Blazer fan brings up Allen's bottomless pockets, I want to

We all know rich men got rich by throwing money around like it's of no consequence, right?

Hmm, that's funny, I didn't say anything about Paul Allen in the post. Are you sure you're quoting the right one?

It was actually about how, under the current CBA, there is almost no chance of a player like Brandon Roy, LaMarcus, Aldridge, Greg Oden, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. leaving because they would have to take a QO to become an UFA and start at a lesser salary.

... about the Luxury tax edit: I guess it's lucky for us that Steve Francis' and Raef Lafrentz' contracts worth a combined $30 million come of the books after next season, then Miles' $9 million comes off the year after that.

[Storm Surge]

I looked at Houston's schedule and most of the remaining games are against pathetic teams, nets, heat, bucks, etc. etc.

I know that the Rockets have had one of the toughest schedules so far.

[yehyeh82]

-= original quote snipped =-



As a Blazers fan I'm curious why you're expecting them to start sucking soon or why they will not go .500 for the rest of the season. I'd appreciate feedback from anyone with reasons why they (as a young and growing team) will not go at least .500 in the second half (for 45 wins on the season) after a more difficult .600 first half.

I think it just comes down to the fact that young teams have trouble keeping the intensity up for a whole 82 game season. They tend to get worn down at the end as they have never had to play so hard for so long before. Last year for the Warriors their two youngest players, Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis, looked ragged down the stretch and just didn't have the same explosiveness they did at the the beginning of the season. Hence they didn't play as much, even in the playoffs. When you've only been in the league a year or two that last month and a half can be a struggle.

[farzi]

-= original quote snipped =-



I think it just comes down to the fact that young teams have trouble keeping the intensity up for a whole 82 game season. They tend to get worn down at the end as they have never had to play so hard for so long before. Last year for the Warriors their two youngest players, Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis, looked ragged down the stretch and just didn't have the same explosiveness they did at the the beginning of the season. Hence they didn't play as much, even in the playoffs. When you've only been in the league a year or two that last month and a half can be a struggle.

This years Blazers have already bucked the other trends of super young teams. Their the 3rd youngest of all time. The first 2 won a combined 31 games. Portland already has 26 victories this season.

A young team has never lead their division this late in the season (no we're not in the lead, we're .5 back as of today, we were in 1st a few days ago).

The team's leader is more grown up than many men twice his age, and plays like a veteran.

Will they win the title this year? No. Will they make the playoffs? Probably. Will they end up like every other young team like the posters here continue to preach? They haven't yet, in over half of the season...why would they now?

[richboy]

If we had this discussion 2 or 3 weeks ago, people would be predicting something like this:

1. Lakers
2. Phoenix
3. SA
4. Denver
5. Dallas
6. Portland
7. NO
8. GS

Everyone would have had the Lakers slotted as easily a top 3, maybe #1 overall team.

You all need to quit seeing things "in the moment" and allow larger and more broad team trends to determine how you think things will turn out.

The Hornets get hot, and now everyone is handing them a top 2 or 3 seed? They are something like 12-2 in January (read: red hot), and have climbed to #1.....BY A ONE GAME MARGIN. What about their play before that? How is it that they aren't 5 or 6 games ahead with the way they've been playing of late?

The Spurs go through a slump and everyone wants to put them in the bottom half. This is a team that has annually played less than stellar ball in the 1st half of the year before coming on like a tornado in the 2nd half. Don't you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt?

Dallas played poorly early in the season, led by Dirk's horrible November, but have been their usual elite selves since, and are with 2 games of the lead in the West right now.

Phoenix, despite all of their highly publicized problems, is still just a game out of the #1 seed, and last I checked Steve Nash is still dominating on a nightly basis.

Portland got hot, and a week or two ago would have been everyone's pick to win the Northwest. Now they go on a 7 game roadie and post a respectable 3-4 record and they are out of everyone's playoff picture?


My point is that you shouldn't blow with the breeze like this. New Orleans is a fine team, and will most likely be in the playoffs, but you don't put them as the #1 or 2 seed in all of the West just as their play peaks for the season. In a month, they will have suffered at least one significant injury, gone on at least a modest losing streak, and had some of their weaknesses exposed by teams who have had time to look at game film on them.

Meanwhile, the old guard of Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio will be in the mix, like always. Here's my playoff predictions:

1. Phoenix
2. Dallas
3. San Antonio
4. Utah (and they will have the 4th best record, as well)
5. New Orleans
6. LA Lakers
7. Houston
8. Denver

I see Denver just nudging out GS for the final playoff spot, and I see Portland going into a serious spiral and finishing under or around .500

[Alex_De_Large]

nba is crazy, wolves and sonics can beat anyone, people who say there are locks don't know what they are talking about, i only see the suns as a lock right now.

[Mr. Perfect]

Spurs just lost to the Sonics. I know they were without Tony Parker, but still pretty surprising.

They still got 8 games left on this road trip. What are the odds that the Spurs could possibly fall to 9th place during this stretch? They're currently only 2 games out of 9th seed.

[INKtastic]

I don't consider anyone out west a lock - look at how fast the lakers fell, and they didn't even lose Kobe. Any team is capable of going through a 6-4 stretch while healthy. Do that and then lose a key guy and you can fall fast.

As for the spurs, Parker is now out indefinitely to get his heel better. lets assume for a second he's out until the all star break. Here's what they have left before then

@Phoenix
@Indy
@Washington
@Knicks
@Boston
@Raptors
@Cleveland

[Fitz303]

-= original quote snipped =-



Every time a Blazer fan brings up that quote by Allen I want to

Of course he's gonna say he'll support the Blazers and resign players as needed, but you guys are interpreting that statement as fact that Allen doesn't care about the luxury tax and will go the Dolan route of cap management if it makes the Blazers relevant.

Is this decent enough for you? When the Blazers are in the hunt to become a contender, Allen has NO PROBLEM spending money to keep his players. He only recently decided to start cutting salary so that he could completely rebuild from the ground up. When its time to re-up salaries, as long as the team is on the up, he will throw ANY amount of money necessary..

For Example: Salaries while contending in the early 2000's

00/01 - $97,712,109
01/02 - $90,498,850
02/03 - $91,860,000

And for reference - Knicks Salary:
07/08 - $88,877,161

Doesnt really seem like a guy who's afraid to spend money on his team. Dont worry about the Blazers keeping their players.. The Blazers will be fine. As far as this season goes, I sure hope they make it, but its going to be tough

Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers, Rockets, Warriors will be fighting for the final 4 spots. IMO it will be the Lakers, Jazz, Warriors and (homer pick) Blazers

[UDRIH14]

if spurs continue to slide, expect them to forget about SPAM, and start tanking hard, only 2 games seperates the seeds 5-9

[J~Rush]

if spurs continue to slide, expect them to forget about SPAM, and start tanking hard, only 2 games seperates the seeds 5-9

spam?

[UDRIH14]

-= original quote snipped =-



spam?

spurs peak after march

but it doesnt look like it by the way things are going for the spurs

[cdubbz]

All i care about is Warriors vs Dallas. knock em out again and make dallas cry cry cry.