Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[Ecmic]

US mortality rate is currently at 1.5% in total. Still heavily skewed towards old & underlying conditions, WA state care facility. If the top level rate drops to 0.5%, what is the plan then? Full panic still?

Absolutely yes, because if 50% of Americans get infected, that means 825,000 deaths.

WTF do the numbers of dead have to reach insane levels for people to think it's worth taking action!?

Less action = likelihood of higher rate. The mortality rate is not baked into the virus, it is absolutely decided by the response to it, and ability to provide care. It could have been less than 0.5% if immediate shutdown happened like 10 days ago. That is no longer likely or even possible, unless some of these modified Malaria or HIV treatments work at high rates.

Its a major factor because people die of the flu every year and most people do not care. The mortality rate should be a key component of any decision regarding action here.

I think the line of thinking with this thing is that the mortality rate should be viewed as a product of our action rather than a determinant of our action.

[slamilcarBarca]

oh good god!!

https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/entertainment/article/3075717/chinese-social-media-shocked-huge-concerts-go-ahead-uk-amid

[MotownMadness]

oh good god!!

https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/entertainment/article/3075717/chinese-social-media-shocked-huge-concerts-go-ahead-uk-amid

Idiot's

[rapstarter]

I really hope they can make this self-swab kit widely available soon. This is probably the most interesting development from the last few days, other than this $1,000 check.

[LKN]

Trump knew what he was doing with the Chinese Virus stuff. There is a reason he didn't refer to it that way once on twitter until the 16th, which is the same day he held the press conference and talked about the quarantine and finally somewhat acknowledged how serious this is.

He wanted to create a distraction and he has.

Was running through the last several pages and planning on posting similar. Surprised it took so long before someone said it.

Yes, everyone is exactly falling for this. He isn't doing this out of any clarification of multiple types of corona, or necessarily because he hates Asian people. It's playing the media like a fiddle. He knows this will tick of the left so they can call him racist, which will bring his crazy faction out to scream back how he's right to do it, blah blah. Then both extremists scream at each other and act like 'everyone' on the other side is that way. Meanwhile the normal people in the middle shake their head. But, when it comes down to it it is on him, as he's instigating ita ll on purpose to politically benefit himself. This is what he wants, you guys getting all angry and arguing about this to distract from what's really going on. Aaaand, it keeps his buddies in the media with good ratings while drumming up support in his base.

Agreed... who the hell cares about half the stupid stuff he says. The terrible, slow and incompetent response is vastly, vastly more important.

[dhsilv2]

Absolutely yes, because if 50% of Americans get infected, that means 825,000 deaths.

WTF do the numbers of dead have to reach insane levels for people to think it's worth taking action!?

Less action = likelihood of higher rate. The mortality rate is not baked into the virus, it is absolutely decided by the response to it, and ability to provide care. It could have been less than 0.5% if immediate shutdown happened like 10 days ago. That is no longer likely or even possible, unless some of these modified Malaria or HIV treatments work at high rates.

Its a major factor because people die of the flu every year and most people do not care. The mortality rate should be a key component of any decision regarding action here.

I think the line of thinking with this thing is that the mortality rate should be viewed as a product of our action rather than a determinant of our action.

To add color - the mortality rate is going to be a factor of keeping our hospital under capacity. If we let them get overwhelmed more people will die. So our actions and the death rate are tied together.

[LKN]

Its a major factor because people die of the flu every year and most people do not care. The mortality rate should be a key component of any decision regarding action here.

I think the line of thinking with this thing is that the mortality rate should be viewed as a product of our action rather than a determinant of our action.

To add color - the mortality rate is going to be a factor of keeping our hospital under capacity. If we let them get overwhelmed more people will die. So our actions and the death rate are tied together.

And it's easy to see in the data... look at SK and Italy.

People are mostly dying in Italy because they are out of capacity, not just because they got infected.

[Xpressure]

Absolutely yes, because if 50% of Americans get infected, that means 825,000 deaths.

WTF do the numbers of dead have to reach insane levels for people to think it's worth taking action!?

Less action = likelihood of higher rate. The mortality rate is not baked into the virus, it is absolutely decided by the response to it, and ability to provide care. It could have been less than 0.5% if immediate shutdown happened like 10 days ago. That is no longer likely or even possible, unless some of these modified Malaria or HIV treatments work at high rates.

Its a major factor because people die of the flu every year and most people do not care. The mortality rate should be a key component of any decision regarding action here.

This is such an inaccurate assumption that has been going around.

First, the Coronavirus is barely only 5 months old. So there is no concrete number to say more people die from the Flu a year more than the Coronavirus.

Second, these numbers don't show what Coronavirus would do if it wasn't quarantined. People aren't quarantined from the Flu. However, government has taken early steps to quarantine us from the Coronavirus which is why the numbers aren't as big. The new Imperial College study suggested that if we left the Coronavirus alone and treated it "just like the Flu", death toll in America alone would reach 2.2 million.

[Xpressure]

Anyone posted the Imperial College test on COVID-19?

Scary.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

If not taken seriously, and if we hadn't acted on it, it could wipe out 2.2 million Americans.

I read the summary version on Twitter:

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Thanks

[basketballRob]

I really hope they can make this self-swab kit widely available soon. This is probably the most interesting development from the last few days, other than this $1,000 check.

I heard Mark Cuban whining on the news earlier, not to do the 1000 per person. He wants the government to send money to guys like him and he'll distribute it to his employees.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[NoDopeOnSundays]

I really hope they can make this self-swab kit widely available soon. This is probably the most interesting development from the last few days, other than this $1,000 check.

I heard Mark Cuban whining on the news earlier, not to do the 1000 per person. He wants the government to send money to guys like him and he'll distribute it to his employees.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Ah, the good old fashion way, like Lords and Serfs.

[SF_Warriors]

Lol Italy has 60mm people and around 31000 confirmed cases or .00051% of the population. If that "overwhelms" their healthcare system then their system is pathetic. If a real pandemic ever comes they will become the Walking Dead

You don't understand how thousands of people in a span of a few weeks needing a minimum 2 week long hospitalization can overwhelm a healthcare system? Most hospitals are not sitting empty waiting for a pandemic, they are usually running at about 70-80% capacity...

Right, no country's medical system has capacity (beds, equipment, personnel, medicine, etc.) for a widespread pandemic, it's not economically feasible. It would be like driving around with 10 spare tires in your car (bad analogy but hopefully my point is clear.)

We also have to consider that the number of hospitalized cases are NOT evenly distributed throughout a country, meaning, certain cities are hit harder than others. Some cities have like 3 cases, which would be manageable. JH, where do you live? If it is in the US, it doesnt make sense that your wife would have seen a sudden surge then drop off within the past few weeks while the brunt of the testings and hospitalizations in the USA are happening right now.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[slamilcarBarca]

people need to understand that they can't cite the mortality rate without taking transmission rate, population and hospital capacity into account.

[madmaxmedia]

For a couple of days the daily death count in Italy had slowly dropped (368, 349, 345), but 475 deaths reported today (in the 'Latest Updates', the graph hasn't been updated yet):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[Ainosterhaspie]

For a couple of days the daily death count in Italy had slowly dropped (368, 349, 345), but 475 deaths reported today (in the 'Latest Updates', the graph hasn't been updated yet):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

That's still seems like a significant slowing to me. Average over the four days is 384. Hopefully that number doesn't keep creeping up the next few days.

[DavidSterned]

New York is blowing up

Read on Twitter

That 1000 bed medical ship should help out in the short term. Hopefully the Army Corps Of Engineers (convert existing buildings to hospital-type spaces) and the Department Of Defense (field hospitals) are ready to roll. Exponential growth is in effect, even if some of this positive test "explosion" could be backlog (as explained by Birx in press conference today; see my post on it above) coming loose now.

This is what the medical ship looks like:




Think it's like a converted destroyer. USA has 2 of them.

Aaaand... this is because they've they started finally testing. The cases have been there, just not tested for. So when the white house start blaming the city and the state... don't buy into it please.

Hospitalizations aren't going to increase by 108% in a short time simply because they started ramping up testing. Don't be naive. The virus is seriously spreading there now.

[SF_Warriors]

For a couple of days the daily death count in Italy had slowly dropped (368, 349, 345), but 475 deaths reported today (in the 'Latest Updates', the graph hasn't been updated yet):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

300+ deaths a day in one country sounds insane to me..That's like 10,000 deaths in a month...average deaths in the US for the flu is like 16,000 annually..

[HotRocks34]

Long Island, New York

Read on Twitter

[Nuntius]

Disagree and think it needs to be said. Are there really Chinese being attacked now over here?

Our media is much more worried about politics and putting the blame on Trump then the original problem.

not interested in getting into it on Trump other than to say as the leader of the country and one who was actively working against taking measures early, he absolutely deserves a ton of criticism.

That said, it's clear that someone was able to get through to him and the US Govt seems to be all-in on trying to deal with this now so I'm not going to waste time or energy playing the blame game. There will be time enough once we are through the crisis to identify some issues that contributed to making the issue worse.

And no it doesn't need to be said over and over. Everyone knows where the virus first started spreading. And yes Asians are getting harassed by ignorant people being led by Trump and others continuing with that labeling.

And sorry but that sucks and is needless.

And im sure to you it was also racist and fear mongering early when he put in the china travel ban.

One thing to note here:

The only country that has been able to stop Covid-19 so far, South Korea, never issued a travel ban to China.