Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Triples333]

Many of you guys seem exclusively focused on treating Coronavirus and limiting Coronavirus deaths.

Please consider that you should be equally focused on treating the Economy and limiting death to the Economy.

Economic recession brings countless negative repercussions. For starters see https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5618/economics/negative-impact-of-economic-recession/

"The main costs of a recession will be:

Unemployment
Fall in income – shorter working week.
Rise in poverty
Fall in asset prices (e.g. fall in house prices/stock market)
Increased inequality and an increase in relative poverty
Higher government borrowing (less tax revenue)
Permanently lost output.
Firms go out of business."

Not to mention dramatic increases in suicide (40,000 people killed themselves in 1937-1938 during the Great Depression) https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/09/suicide-and-the-economy/279961/.

If you let the economy die, you are letting Coronavirus win. And we will ALL suffer in the end for it. We must safely re-open businesses as soon as possible.

Just opening businesses won't bring people, they have opened movie theaters in South Korea and nobody is going, certain sectors are going to be dead for the foreseeable future (Cruises, movies, tourism etc). However the economy will be fine in the long run, you have to contain the virus first before anything, if you reopen too soon you're back at square 1 and will just pro-long the downturn in the economy.

If you reopen too soon, what do you think happens to small businesses when nobody shows up to consume? Especially when the banks aren't waiving payments because everything is now open.

Depends on how it is dealt with by the government and media.

As I mentioned in a previous post, Sweden has largely ignored this virus at a state level and while some are naturally socially distancing and places like restaurants are slower, it is all still running at a high capacity (without any overloading of their health care systems). No masks are even being worn. This feels more than extremely relevant.

[jason bourne]

siap. COVID-19 is nastier than we thought. More men are dying from it. Now we find it may hide in your balls for safety from our antibodies and are attracted to the ACE 2 the balls pumps out. Double whammy???!!!???!!!

"Still, the hypothesis has three important things going for it.

First, there are many precedents for a pathogen taking up residence in a quiet corner to elude the body’s immune defenses. The Ebola virus was found to hide in the pigment cells of the human retina, leaving even recovered patients with lingering virus.

Second, it is a biologically plausible explanation for an observed gender disparity in COVID-19 infections. The coronavirus is known to bind to ACE2 receptors, which are plentiful in just a handful of tissues, including those of the testicles.

Third, it may help explain a clear pattern emerging from the COVID-19 epidemic. While rates of confirmed cases are running close to even by gender, men have died of COVID-19 at notably higher rates than women in China, South Korea, Italy and the United States. In New York City, 68% of deaths attributed to COVID-19 have been in men, and 32% in women.

It’s a trend that Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus coordinator, has called “concerning.”

What the hypothesis does not yet have is clear evidence to support the link between testicles and COVID-19."

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-18/do-testicles-make-men-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus

[michaelm]

For those who are basically saying that they don't believe in the flu vaccine therefore they won't be getting the Covid-19 vaccine, are you insinuating that the Covid-19 is just another variant of the seasonal flu? Still in denial of how potent this virus is?

It's not at all the flue. It's the "common cold". They're completely different in every possible way. I get your point but please don't perpetuate the disinformation that the flue and covid are even that similar.

As you know human coronaviruses which cause the common cold don’t cause viral pneumonia in a significant proportion of cases however, which is rather the problem with a virus which spreads like the common cold.

[michaelm]

Spoiler:

As we discussed before, 0.2% is what the Iceland data shows as the fatality rate but that is an ideal situation, SCC is similar base don this study of antibody tests.

I wouldn't be certain IFR is over 0.2% but IFR will be different in different cities based on population density, demographics, pollution, etc.

I definitely agree on demographics and I get what you mean with pollution, but how is population density playing a role?

Population density does a couple things.
1) It spreads the virus faster which overruns hospitals faster and reduces level of care.
2) The reason it spreads faster is because there is more virus per cubic foot of space (the same reason why denser populations have more air pollution). That not only increases chance of catching it but increases the chance of a higher amount of viral load upon infection.
3) This is just an untested hypothesis, the chance of breathing virus into lower respiratory tract rather than depositing in upper respiratory tract might be higher in a denser population.

Point 3 is interesting. A speculation of my own is that proximity particularly in an immobile population may also give more opportunity for super spreaders to super spread cf the cruise ship and health worker clusters.

[nymets1]

Last night's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA-705,678 confirmed cases(+28,339 increase), Recoveries- 58,478(+3884 increase), Deaths- 36,589(+2203 increase)
New York- 229,642 confirmed cases(+6867 increase)
New Jersey- 78,467 confirmed cases(+3150 increase)
Mass- 34,402 confirmed cases(+2221 increase)
Michigan- 30,023 confirmed cases(+1964 increase)
Penn- 29,441 confirmed cases(+1706 increase)
California- 28,699 confirmed cases(+1265 increase)
Illinois- 27,575 confirmed cases(+1842 increase)
Florida- 24,753 confirmed cases(+1413 increase)
Louisana- 23,118 confirmed cases(+586 increase)
Georgia- 17,432 confirmed cases(+1763 increase)
Texas- 17,371 confirmed cases(+395 increase)
Connecticut- 16,809 confirmed cases(+925 increase)
Maryland- 11,572 confirmed cases(+788 increase)
Washington- 11,154 confirmed cases, Active cases- 9220
Indiana- 10,154 confirmed cases(+612 increase)

Spain- 190,859 confirmed cases(+5914 increase), Recoveries- 74,797
Italy- 172,434 confirmed cases(+930 increase)
Germany- 141,448 confirmed cases(+3218 increase), Recoveries- 87,500
France- 109,252 confirmed cases, Active cases- 56,151
United Kingdom- 108,692 confirmed cases(+10,216 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 709,735 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 60,510, Deaths- 37,154

New York- 233,951 CC(+7753 increase)
New Jersey- 78,467 CC(+3150 increase)
Mass- 34,402 CC(+2221 increase)
Michigan- 30,023 CC(+760 increase)
Penn- 29,921 CC(+2186 increase)
California- 29,175 CC(+1541 increase)
Illinois- 27,575 CC(+1842 increase)
Florida- 24,752 CC(+1413 increase)
Louisana- 23,118 CC(+586 increase)
Georgia- 17,432 CC(+1064 increase)
Texas- 17,371 CC(+733 increase)
Connecticut- 16,809 CC(+925 increase)
Maryland- 11,572 CC(+788 increase)
Washington- 11,159 CC(+125 increase)
Indiana- 10,154 CC(+612 increase)

1. New Jersey is a little over 20,000 away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut is right behind Texas in total confimed cases and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 7 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases per day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9463
.
5. Texas now 6 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases per day

Today's number's as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 739,041 confirmed cases(+26,942 increase), Recoveries- 65,549(+7113 increase), Deaths- 38,928(+2375 increase)
New York- 236,732 confirmed cases(+7090 increase)
New Jersey- 81,420 confirmed cases(+3672 increase)
Mass- 36,372 confirmed cases(+1970 increase)
Penn- 31,069 confirmed cases(+1628 increase)
Michigan- 30,791 confirmed cases(+768 increase)
Illinois- 29,160 confirmed cases(+1585 increase)
California- 28,899 confirmed cases(+1265 increase)
Florida- 25,492 confirmed cases(+739 increase)
Louisana- 23,580 confirmed cases(+462 increase)
Texas- 18,269 confirmed cases(+889 increase)
Georgia- 17,841 confirmed cases(+647 increase)
Connecticut- 17,550 confirmed cases(+741 increase)
Maryland- 12,308 confirmed cases(+701 increase)
Washington- 11,445 confirmed cases(+293 increase)
Indiana- 10,641 confirmed cases(+1099 increase)
Ohio- 10,222 confirmed cases(+1115 increase)
Colorado- 9433 confirmed cases(+758 increase)

Spain- 194,416 confirmed cases(+3557 increase), Recoveries- 74,797
Italy- 175,927 confirmed cases(+1293 increase), Recoveries- 44,927
Germany- 143,723 confirmed cases(+2275 increase), Recoveries- 87,500
United Kingdom- 114,217 confirmed cases(+5525 increase)
France- 111,211 confirmed cases(+1006 increase), Recoveries- 35,983(+1563 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 738,792 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 68,269, Deaths- 39,014
New York- 241,041 confirmed cases(+7090 increase)
New Jersey- 81,420 confirmed cases(+2953 increase)
Mass- 36,372 confirmed cases(+1970 increase)
Penn- 31,731 confirmed cases(+1810 increase)
Michigan- 30,791 confirmed cases(+768 increase)
California- 30,718 confirmed cases(+1543 increase)
Illinois- 29,160 confirmed cases(+1585 increase)
Florida- 25,492 confirmed cases(+739 increase)
Louisana- 23,580 confirmed cases(+462 increase)
Texas- 18,679 confirmed cases(+919 increase)
Georgia- 17,841 confirmed cases(+409 increase)
Connecticut- 17,550 confirmed cases(+741 increase)
Maryland-12,308 confirmed cases(+736 increase)
Washington- 11,802 confirmed cases(+643 increase)
Indiana- 10,641 confirmed cases(+487 increase)
Ohio- 10,222 confirmed cases(+1115 increase)
Colorado- 9433 confirmed cases(+386 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 20,000 confirmed cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut is right behind Texas in total confimed cases and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 8 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9463
5. Texas now 7 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day(full week)
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and all 3 states had a good day keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day.
7. USA had over 7000 recoveries today, GREAT JOB

[Triples333]

I will keep saying it until you fools acknowledge.



Sweden has not shut down. They are running business as usual. And they are fine.

Explain that?

[HollowEarth]

And what virus ever did? Like honestly. Being outside during nice weather, even in a crowd, has never been known to get people sick. It’s being couped up in close quarters sharing the same uncirculated air that has always been the problem w/ spreading illness.

All these big events that are being cancelled out of fear should just be moved outside. High schools should have their proms and graduations on the football field . I’m being overly optimistic I know, but it’s not a horrible idea.

WOW! How dare you be optimistic. And why do you have a (smart) plan to put in practice? Dont you know you need to be all doom and gloom and cry that life is over? You need to be afraid and fear even taking 1 step out of your house because you will die.

/s

Mardi Gras:
https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_2ac928dc-7f55-11ea-999a-df6d0edbb0f1.html

And Italy fell apart around an outdoor Soccer match. There's a middle ground between doom and ignoring the virus. People around here are doing loads of stuff outside, just not group stuff. I feel like I constantly see trucks hauling dirt bikes, 4-wheelers, and other atvs. I've been foraging, people are walking at the parks, and teens are going to the old sand pits.

Prom? I don't know a good way to do prom. Maybe drive-in prom and just skip all the dancing?

[Nuntius]

I will keep saying it until you fools acknowledge.



Sweden has not shut down. They are running business as usual. And they are fine.

Explain that?

Sweden isn't fine, though. They are 11th in deaths per 1 million despite the fact that they have a very low population density (159th in the world -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density ) and that they are far away from the hot spots of major outbreaks in Europe (Italy, Spain and France) -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you are doing that badly on deaths despite the fact that you have all those things going from you (plus, a generally quite strong health care system) then it means that the measures you've taken aren't working.

Also, they aren't quite running business as usual either. High schools and universities are either closed or working remotely. Concerts and professional sports are cancelled or played without fans. Social distancing is still advised. Their measures are lax when compared to other countries but it isn't quite business as usual either -> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/833623311/in-sweden-a-different-approach-to-coronavirus-control

[G R E Y]

Cool!

Read on Twitter

All league proceeds from the sales of the new face cloth coverings will benefit Feeding America in the United States and Second Harvest in Canada.

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/04/17/nba-fanatics-face-covers-coronavirus?utm_campaign=sinow&xid=socialflow_twitter_si&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social



https://store.nba.com/face-coverings/c-3424283763+z-912064-518001985?ab=

[Triples333]

I will keep saying it until you fools acknowledge.



Sweden has not shut down. They are running business as usual. And they are fine.

Explain that?

Sweden isn't fine, though. They are 11th in deaths per 1 million despite the fact that they have a very low population density (159th in the world -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density ) and that they are far away from the hot spots of major outbreaks in Europe (Italy, Spain and France) -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you are doing that badly on deaths despite the fact that you have all those things going from you (plus, a generally quite strong health care system) then it means that the measures you've taken aren't working.

Also, they aren't quite running business as usual either. High schools and universities are either closed or working remotely. Concerts and professional sports are cancelled or played without fans. Social distancing is still advised. Their measures are lax when compared to other countries but it isn't quite business as usual either -> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/833623311/in-sweden-a-different-approach-to-coronavirus-control

I have mentioned what simple measures they have shut down.

But yes, they are VERY much fine.


We are talking about a nation who does NOT wear masks and openly runs all restaurants.

[Nuntius]

I will keep saying it until you fools acknowledge.



Sweden has not shut down. They are running business as usual. And they are fine.

Explain that?

Sweden isn't fine, though. They are 11th in deaths per 1 million despite the fact that they have a very low population density (159th in the world -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density ) and that they are far away from the hot spots of major outbreaks in Europe (Italy, Spain and France) -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you are doing that badly on deaths despite the fact that you have all those things going from you (plus, a generally quite strong health care system) then it means that the measures you've taken aren't working.

Also, they aren't quite running business as usual either. High schools and universities are either closed or working remotely. Concerts and professional sports are cancelled or played without fans. Social distancing is still advised. Their measures are lax when compared to other countries but it isn't quite business as usual either -> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/833623311/in-sweden-a-different-approach-to-coronavirus-control

I have mentioned what simple measures they have shut down.

But yes, they are VERY much fine.


We are talking about a nation who does NOT wear masks and openly runs all restaurants.

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

[EH15]

I will compare Sweden and the prospect of staying open to the NBA, specifically the Boston Celtics. Re-opening now would be like Boston trading Tatum and Brown for Kawhi — a short term injection to the economy (debatable really). Remember, Kawhi was coming off an injury riddled season and people were questioning his reliability. There was tremendous risk. As history has shown us, it would have in fact been a one year push. But if it fails, you set yourself further back with neither the championship to show for or the young talent to recuperate with. That's what re-opening now would do. The alternative is what the Celtics chose to do; stand pat and give yourself a better chance in the future. Multiple chances. A foundation that limits the risk with the same benefits. That's what holding on to Tatum and Brown has yielded. Cost control and multiple years of contention.

[Triples333]

Sweden isn't fine, though. They are 11th in deaths per 1 million despite the fact that they have a very low population density (159th in the world -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density ) and that they are far away from the hot spots of major outbreaks in Europe (Italy, Spain and France) -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you are doing that badly on deaths despite the fact that you have all those things going from you (plus, a generally quite strong health care system) then it means that the measures you've taken aren't working.

Also, they aren't quite running business as usual either. High schools and universities are either closed or working remotely. Concerts and professional sports are cancelled or played without fans. Social distancing is still advised. Their measures are lax when compared to other countries but it isn't quite business as usual either -> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/833623311/in-sweden-a-different-approach-to-coronavirus-control

I have mentioned what simple measures they have shut down.

But yes, they are VERY much fine.


We are talking about a nation who does NOT wear masks and openly runs all restaurants.

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

[reload141]

I have mentioned what simple measures they have shut down.

But yes, they are VERY much fine.


We are talking about a nation who does NOT wear masks and openly runs all restaurants.

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

Yup.

[G R E Y]

Excuse me, pardon me, make way for Captain Tom Moore! Captain Tom sought to raise £1000 for the NHS by doing 100 laps before his 100th birthday.

Here he was finishing them:

Read on Twitter

As of today, he has raised £25 million! Amazing!

[lakerz12]

Lots of hating on Florida here and yet they are the 10th most deaths despite being 3rd most populated state.

Hmm

Seems like a bias exists.

[Nuntius]

I have mentioned what simple measures they have shut down.

But yes, they are VERY much fine.


We are talking about a nation who does NOT wear masks and openly runs all restaurants.

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

[My Main Man]

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

And what don't you get? Sweden has a lot more deaths than every single one of their neighbors. A lot more Swedes are dying than they have to. And it's all because they are using a strategy that isn't working.

If that's winning then how does losing look like?

Yeah but they don’t wear masks and their restaurants are open so they’re winning.

[michaelm]

I have mentioned what simple measures they have shut down.

But yes, they are VERY much fine.


We are talking about a nation who does NOT wear masks and openly runs all restaurants.

How can having 150 deaths per 1 million in a country that wasn't close to an major outbreak hot spot AND has a very low population density ever be considered fine?

For a comparison, their neighbors have 60 deaths per 1 million (2/5ths, Denmark), 30 deaths per 1 million (2/10ths, Norway) and 16 deaths per 1 million (a bit more than 1/10th, Finland).

If that's doing "VERY much fine" then how does doing awful look like? How many deaths are too much? At what point do you say, ok, this is not working, better change course?

What don't you get? Sweden is having NO significant issues from a health care stand point and they are garnering herd immunity.

This is not a debate. Sweden is winning.

So Sweden, which as has been pointed out has a 10% case fatality rate like the seriously affected places but less cases for whatever reasons (some have already been suggested and I can think of others) means Italy, Spain, France, the UK, Wuhan province in China, NYC etc didn’t actually happen ?.

That said I think a debate can be had regarding the incremental benefits of varying degrees of lockdown, and in a country as large and diverse in population density, demographics etc as the USA a state by state approach may be rational. Australia which is currently doing better than most with significant but not absolutely complete/a stage 3 rather than a stage 4 lockdown while similar in land area to the continental USA has a highly urbanised/much more urbanised population, and hence individual states in Australia appropriately have similar approaches in general including discouraging visits to the country from the capital cities. Some states but not others have closed their borders to people from interstate other than essential workers though.

[HotRocks34]

South Carolina to re-open beaches and retail stores next week, according to a report:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/493501-south-carolina-to-reopen-public-beaches-retail-stores-next-week-amid#.XpumY986ufI.twitter