NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 2)

[Oscar9992]

Looks like it's Jokic vs Doncic this year... LOL

[Exp0sed]

Looks like it's Jokic vs Doncic this year... LOL

personally I would love the Nuggets to somehow stay this good and finish 1st
the reason being, im betting so many posters who are basically jut biased against Jokic cuz he's a Euro that can't jump and that just doesn't sit right with their preception of "MVP", they take it as a personal slight or insult to themselves or to the game somehow (don't ask me how, but it exists )

these are the posters that clamored about how big of a farce is it would be to give Jokic (his first) and the back to back MVP with the 6th seeding

they will resort to mental gymnastics, move the goal posts (twist reality) and find some argument why seeding is less important than ___fill in the blanks___

which is the opposite of what they've been arguing for a long while

Doncic vs. Jokic in particular is probably the most fertile ground for such mental gymnastics to emerge,
because I think it's very plausible that the Nuggets finish 1st \ 2nd while the Mavs will be only 4th or 5th etc

and those same guys trashing Jokic's team record and ignoring his lack of help are gonna say Doncic should be MVP even tho he was 5th because he had no help

that scenario will be funny af

[mcmurphy]

Shoots like Dirk, distributes like Bird, too sweet inside like McHale, bigger than Gasol? Looks like it, best hands since I don’t even know.

Jokic is absurd.

Career:

Aaron Gordon from ts% 53.1 before Jokic to ts% 61.2 (+8.1) with Jokic
KCP from ts% 54.1 before Jokic to ts% 61.8 (+7.7) with Jokic
Bruce Brown from ts% 54.8 before Jokic to ts% 59.0 (+4.2) with Jokic

The underestimation of the importance of playmaking.

I'm sure that also Murray and MPJ would have a ts 4-5% lower without Jokic

[mcmurphy]

However I'm sure Jokic would trade the eventual third MVP with a healthy Murray and MPJ in the playoffs and have a real chance to go all in.

I hope Luka wins the MVP.

[Mick Dundee]

I love Jokic as much as everyone else on this Board.

But attributing everything to his Offensive Genius looks like naked exaggaration.

The other day, when Denver beat Miami I checked the Boxscores ... and I mean ...



WTF? All but 2 Players in Double Figures ...

I am no Expert, but this some overall Shooting Prowess and cannot be attributed to Jokic's Impact alone.

[DCasey91]

I love Jokic as much as everyone else on this Board.

But attributing everything to his Offensive Genius looks like naked exaggaration.

The other day, when Denver beat Miami I checked the Boxscores ... and I mean ...



WTF? All but 2 Players in Double Figures ...

I am no Expert, but this some overall Shooting Prowess and cannot be attributed to Jokic's Impact alone.

Well sorry to burst your bubble but Jokic is the equivalent to an orchestra conductor, the offence is pure all round whenever he is on the court, and repeatedly over 3 seasons once he’s off and on the bench the whole band sings a different tune.

It’s not so much as an exaggeration it’s just that he’s that great on offence. People don’t realise but he sometimes hand hold teammates through possessions. Telling them where to go/what to do, nope go there, pointing etc.

James/CP3 has that ability but it’s unique with Jokic.

They have the like 400th lvl player (really really bad) offence when he sits lmao. Now teams can get hot obviously but it’s a general picture here.

[Bergmaniac]

I love Jokic as much as everyone else on this Board.

But attributing everything to his Offensive Genius looks like naked exaggaration.

The other day, when Denver beat Miami I checked the Boxscores ... and I mean ...



WTF? All but 2 Players in Double Figures ...

I am no Expert, but this some overall Shooting Prowess and cannot be attributed to Jokic's Impact alone.

Yet Denver is a dreadful offensive team when Jokic is not playing (101.2 ORTG, which would be league's worst by far). And the drop in efficiency in some of their role players is humongous. Bruce Brown has a 67.9 TS% when playing with Jokic and a really awful 45.8 TS% (in 339 minutes, so it's not some tiny sample size) when Jokic is not playing. Christian Braun's efficiency decreases from 63.0 TS% to 43.6 TS%.

[Exp0sed]

I love Jokic as much as everyone else on this Board.

But attributing everything to his Offensive Genius looks like naked exaggaration.

The other day, when Denver beat Miami I checked the Boxscores ... and I mean ...



WTF? All but 2 Players in Double Figures ...

I am no Expert, but this some overall Shooting Prowess and cannot be attributed to Jokic's Impact alone.

you think u are detracting from Jokic but actually what u posted would be exhibit a. in Jokic's case for MVP

the Nuggets offense is horrendous when he sits and incredible when he plays, and it's not some kind of noise, outlier or weird linueps it's exteremly consistent and the effect is so dramatic, anyone watching a Nuggets game these past seasons is very used to seeing it

this huge net effect is tied both to his uber efficient scoring (he's taking just 15.5 shots this season and averging 26 ppg! he could average 30+ without even breaking a sweat and alot more if he wanted to)

and to his playmaking. like the poster above me said, he conducts the orchestra. He calls the plays, he reads the defense and communicates to his teammates, he's directing trafic - very similar to what we've seen with some elite passers with out of this world basketball IQ's. prime LBJ was doing much of the same

and just like LBJ who turned guys like Shumpert and co. into productive NBA players - Jokic is turning scrubs into playable guys and playable guys into impactful players. he is making the players around him better which is precisely why they are winning, despite playing some sub-par players and playing terrible defense

regardless, the Nuggets have some good offensive players but without their PG and Center (who happen to be the same player) they'd be nowhere offensively, and instead they're all sharing the ball because that's what tone setter and alpha demanads, playing smart and leading the West thus far in the young season, solely on the back of their offensive prowess and that offense force has a name, we call him Nikola Jokic

[Inspektor1312]

I love Jokic as much as everyone else on this Board.

But attributing everything to his Offensive Genius looks like naked exaggaration.

The other day, when Denver beat Miami I checked the Boxscores ... and I mean ...



WTF? All but 2 Players in Double Figures ...

I am no Expert, but this some overall Shooting Prowess and cannot be attributed to Jokic's Impact alone.

Did you actually watch the game or you just looked at the box score and concluded... whatever it is that you concluded?
Watch the games, people.

[GiannisAnte34]

Jokic or Luka are winning the MVP and nobody else is close frankly

[turnaroundJ]

Jokic or Luka are winning the MVP and nobody else is close frankly

probably true. i think KD might have a *small* chance if the nets finish #1 in the league. his narrative is alright, coming from that chaotic offseason and ending up with stability and elite stats.

[Yuri36]

Jokic or Luka are winning the MVP and nobody else is close frankly

probably true. i think KD might have a *small* chance if the nets finish #1 in the league. his narrative is alright, coming from that chaotic offseason and ending up with stability and elite stats.

His rebounding and passing stats are not really elite though.
I know that's unfair considering it's not his primary role but that's the standard guys like Joker or Luka have set.

[maxpower8888]

I love Jokic as much as everyone else on this Board.

But attributing everything to his Offensive Genius looks like naked exaggaration.

The other day, when Denver beat Miami I checked the Boxscores ... and I mean ...



WTF? All but 2 Players in Double Figures ...

I am no Expert, but this some overall Shooting Prowess and cannot be attributed to Jokic's Impact alone.

So you looked at a one-game sample boxscore and concluded that?

[Mick Dundee]

So you looked at a one-game sample boxscore and concluded that?

Not exactly.

It's something I noticed since the start of the season.

Over the last 10 Games for instance, the Nuggets averaged 5 Players in DF.

The game against the Heat was an Outlier as such, as that 8 Players went amok by shooting lights out.

Gotta say, that Cancars emergence as a silent but reliable 3-Point Shooter adds nicely to it.

I like that guy.

[cam24thomas]

Looks like it's Jokic vs Doncic this year... LOL

The way its going, the Nets will finish way ahead of the pack, so that'd give the edge to KD.
Plus the voters probably will assume Doncic wins MVPs in the future, so they won't be in a hurry to give it to Doncic now, and they probably would rather not give it to Jokic again....
KD ticks all the boxes.

[Dutchball97]

Looks like it's Jokic vs Doncic this year... LOL

The way its going, the Nets will finish way ahead of the pack, so that'd give the edge to KD.
Plus the voters probably will assume Doncic wins MVPs in the future, so they won't be in a hurry to give it to Doncic now, and they probably would rather not give it to Jokic again....

Eh some hesitancy to give Jokic a 3rd MVP can be expected but a lot of media members are bursting at the seems to crown Doncic as the next big thing with LeBron on the way out. KD should be in the convo but they'd need to be the best team in the league and even then he'd have the same case Tatum has now and he's not the frontrunner either.

[Whopper_Sr]

Jokic is the best player but this is Luka's year for MVP.

[playa-hater]

Man Jokic spanked Boston .

this is funny. Joker/Denver lost 6 straight to Boston.. while Joker won B2B MVPs.. Boston loses one game... Boston still owns the Nuggets.

[ty 4191]

Shoots like Dirk, distributes like Bird, too sweet inside like McHale, bigger than Gasol? Looks like it, best hands since I don’t even know.

Jokic is absurd.

Career:

Aaron Gordon from ts% 53.1 before Jokic to ts% 61.2 (+8.1) with Jokic
KCP from ts% 54.1 before Jokic to ts% 61.8 (+7.7) with Jokic
Bruce Brown from ts% 54.8 before Jokic to ts% 59.0 (+4.2) with Jokic

The underestimation of the importance of playmaking.

I'm sure that also Murray and MPJ would have a ts 4-5% lower without Jokic

https://nbamath.com/the-nbas-most-efficient-passers/

'"But the true outlier here is Nikola Jokic, who boosts the Denver Nuggets’ efficiency levels by a smidgen under 14 percentage points.

This isn’t a fluke created by his position or role. If it were, you’d see players such as Marc Gasol and Paul Millsap much higher on the y-axis. Instead, it’s a testament to Jokic’s knack for putting the ball in the perfect spot.

He accumulates his fair share of outlet passes and is often willing to kick the ball to the perimeter after an ill-fated post-up attempt, which is why he doesn’t fare better in passes per assist.

Not every assist is equal, and the same is true for seemingly equivalent per-game lines. Two NBA players averaging five assists aren’t identically adept passers.

Right off the bat, we’ll admit we’re overlooking plenty of factors here. Passes squeezed into tight spaces count the same as easy feeds in transition. We’re not factoring in turnovers. The players who rack up disproportionate numbers of dimes don’t receive their due credit.

But we’re zeroing in on passing efficiency—not volume—by looking at two different metrics for the league’s top 50 in assists per game (among those with at least 20 contests to their credit): passes per assist and field-goal-percentage improvement off potential assists.

Using NBA.com’s SportVU data, we’re calculating the former by dividing a player’s total passes by their total assists. The lower the number (or the further left on the chart to come), the better they are at generating buckets for their teammates without wasting passes. Those with higher scores are more likely to swing the ball around the horn or pass to set-up men; they don’t always serve as primary distributors.

The latter is a bit more complicated.

First, we’re looking at a player’s assists and potential assists—defined as passes that would have resulted in assists had the ensuing shot dropped. Dividing potential assists into actual assists yields the field-goal percentage produced by their teammates on worthy feeds. For example, James Harden is leading the NBA by averaging 11.8 assists and 22.3 potential assists, so the Houston Rockets are shooting 52.9 percent when he passes and they shoot quickly enough to earn him an assist if the shot falls.

This would be a potential assist:

By subtracting the team’s field-goal percentage, we can see how much better it shoots off that player’s passes. The higher the discrepancy (or the higher up on the coming chart), the better.

Don’t be surprised that every single player among the 50 analyzed has a positive differential, as teams’ field-goal percentages are typically depressed by isolation attempts, post-up plays and shots off passes from players who don’t serve as leading facilitators.

Again, volume isn’t taken into account here. But the league’s most-efficient passers are those who populate the upper-left portion of this graph (full data at the bottom of this article):

The men occupying the most prominent spots shouldn’t be even the tiniest bit surprising.

James Harden, Russell Westbrook and John Wall are 2016-17’s three leading assist men, and each of them operates with near autonomy in their respective schemes. When they’re not looking to score, they’re always seeking open teammates.

LeBron James and Jeff Teague aren’t far behind, while Chris Paul is in arguably the best position of the leading bunch. The Los Angeles Clippers’ resident point god doesn’t waste many passes while running the show, and he boosts LAC’s field-goal percentage from 46.5 to 56.1 off his passes.

But the true outlier here is Nikola Jokic, who boosts the Denver Nuggets’ efficiency levels by a smidgen under 14 percentage points.

This isn’t a fluke created by his position or role. If it were, you’d see players such as Marc Gasol and Paul Millsap much higher on the y-axis. Instead, it’s a testament to Jokic’s knack for putting the ball in the perfect spot.

He accumulates his fair share of outlet passes and is often willing to kick the ball to the perimeter after an ill-fated post-up attempt, which is why he doesn’t fare better in passes per assist. But the Nuggets know they can cut to the hoop and receive a high-quality feed around the basket.

A disproportionate number of his assists lead teammates right to the rim, where they can complete easy layups and dunks. Even when defenders are there to contest shots, they’re capable of finishing.

In many ways, Jokic is a product of the Daryl Morey school of thought—just with his passing rather than his scoring.

Of his first 124 assists this season, 71 have led to buckets from no further than three feet (57.3 percent). Another 35 produced triples (28.2 percent), and that leaves just 14.5 percent allocated to two-pointers from at least four feet. He knows how to pass into the most efficient zones, and he’s already become a master of creating easy opportunities for his teammates.

By comparison, 23.4 percent of Gasol’s assists lead to two-pointers from at least four feet, and the average shot distance on one of his dimes is 4.5 feet longer than Jokic’s.

The 6’11” center from Serbia may only be 21 years old, but he’s already become one of the NBA’s most efficient distributors, simply by understanding how to pass players open in the most advantageous locations.

Denver was right to hand him the keys to its offense.

Keep in mind, this article is from 2017, and his passing has gotten substantially more lethal since then...

[playa-hater]

I heard one stat last night during Boston-Denver.. Jokic was #1 in touches yet only 20th in usage Time etc.. That is the embodiment of a real MVP. Truly makes it far better for teammates to excel. Total opposite of a ball dominant player like Doncic, who might be > Harden all time in usage rate. Doncic is great at scoring but it is at the expensive of teammates often standing around. With Joker it seems like anyone can get the ball if they keep moving.

As a Celtic/Tatum fan I definitely want/hope Tatum for MVP (though a Title is far more important) But I have no Problem if Joker wins 3rd straight. If not for potential "voter fatigue", he should be the clear favorite.