MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[Ambrose]

Without trying to dilute the main board further with more Luka threads there is something I've been wondering semi-related to the MVP race. We have the big 4 right now and I guess Towns or AD would be the fifth. Let's say Giannis wins MVP, Harden is 2nd, Luka is 3rd, LeBron is 4th and AD or Towns is 5th. Is it possible for all of them to be 1st Team All NBA? Does Luka count as a guard or forward? Do AD/Towns get screwed?

Doncic is a PG so yes.

Isn't it funny how many people still struggle to conceptualize Luka as a PG?
He's 2nd in the league in assists and Carlisle said publicly before the season that he intends to put Luka at the point.
Why is it that no one doubts Ben Simmons is a PG but it's hard to see Luka as one?

He's listed as small forward on ESPN so I wasn't sure. I checked the logs after and he almost exclusively plays PG.

[leolozon]

I’m just Skeptical. Mvp usually goes to a top seed and I don’t see the mavs having a record that close to the bucks and I don’t think lukas play is gonna be that much better than giannis’, if at all.

The MVP usually goes to a player on a top seed, because the player performing the best is usually there. The vote went elsewhere often when people though it wasn’t the case. No need to be a top seed. Basketref has Doncic #1 on its tracker and the model is based on previous winners.

You are wrong to think that Luka would be an exception.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

The vote did not “often” go elsewhere. It’s literally always a top 2 seed besides Westbrook.

You do realize that you changed your sentence from "top seed" to "top 2 seed" and acted as if I was wrong? That's just so weird that someone could change the premise and act as if they were right all along.

I bring you neutral a formula based on past winners and you still don't want to listen and think you're right. What's the point?

Once again, it generally goes to a top seed because that's where the best player generally is. Lebron won it and his team was the 4th best. Why not a guy on the best 3 teams? Because Lebron was better. Kobe won it on the 3rd best team in the league, despite the Celtics having 9 more wins. Steve Nash won it despite the Suns having 54 wins, because no one thought they could do it without Amare.

[Imon]

Doncic is a PG so yes.

Isn't it funny how many people still struggle to conceptualize Luka as a PG?
He's 2nd in the league in assists and Carlisle said publicly before the season that he intends to put Luka at the point.
Why is it that no one doubts Ben Simmons is a PG but it's hard to see Luka as one?

Do you consider LeBron as a PG this year?

Like I said in my earlier post Carlisle said, publicly, BEFORE the season Luka would run point.

And, yes, Lebron is the de facto PG for the Lakers. If you've never heard people call Lebron a point-foward before then you haven't been following the league. Who else was running point for the Lakers? Bradley who has averaged under 2 apg? Rondo who missed half the season so far? Cook who is playing 15 mpg? Or Caruso who plays off the bench?

[Vsauce12]

The Mavs has the #1 offense and #2 NETrtg in the league...

Okay, that's nice, it's an 82 game season. You don't need to be a psychic to know that isn't going to be the case of the course of 82 games. Like I said before luka is a cute story rn but he won't be in the MVP convo two months from now, their net rating is insanely inflated rn due to the wins over the cavs and golden state, it will normalise eventually.

Do you also know which players team is 4th on offence, 3rd on defensive and 2nd in net rating? The Bucks and unlike the Dallas Mavs, that level of play is sustainable for them because they've already proved it last year, that's why I have Giannis as my MVP pick, just don't see anyone stopping him from going b2b.

So anything that hasn't happened in the past is sure to not happen in the future? and the same if you take off the "Not" from my question?
What a limited, conservative view of sports and life in general you seem to have....

No, it's called being realistic and not deluded. This is why you don't argue with fans, very little reasoning. If you seriously think the mavs are going to finish top 3 in the west, with the number one offence and best net rating (when adjusted for the opponent difficulty they're 3rd in net rating) I seriously don't know what to tell you other than to start placing bets because you would make a killing.

[freethedevil]

Even though +/- and family related should not be used for rankings, just for the sake of entertainment, 2019-2020 PIPM has it in this order.

Oh, but stat lines should? Anyone who doesn't like adjusted +/- stats must really hate winning since stats like pipm do that better than anything you use for rankings.

Giannis
Doncic/Harden 2a/2b
Lebron

My gut feeling surprisingly agrees. Giannis is simply doing "too much" for his team. If voters' fatigue is a thing then I would probably give it to the "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named"

Yes, data is so useful when you use it to reinforce your preconceived notions.

[Vsauce12]

The MVP usually goes to a player on a top seed, because the player performing the best is usually there. The vote went elsewhere often when people though it wasn’t the case. No need to be a top seed. Basketref has Doncic #1 on its tracker and the model is based on previous winners.

You are wrong to think that Luka would be an exception.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

The vote did not “often” go elsewhere. It’s literally always a top 2 seed besides Westbrook.

You do realize that you changed your sentence from "top seed" to "top 2 seed" and acted as if I was wrong? That's just so weird that someone could change the premise and act as if they were right all along.

I bring you neutral a formula based on past winners and you still don't want to listen and think you're right. What's the point?

Once again, it generally goes to a top seed because that's where the best player generally is. Lebron won it and his team was the 4th best. Why not a guy on the best 3 teams? Because Lebron was better. Kobe won it on the 3rd best team in the league, despite the Celtics having 9 more wins. Steve Nash won it despite the Suns having 54 wins, because no one thought they could do it without Amare.

When Lebron won it in 2012 it was a shortened lockout season, that was no normal season. Another exception

Kobe won it in 2008 because the Celtics had the big three, so no one single player could be credited for the teams' success like Kobe could, plus kobe had never won one before and the media felt bad that this could have been his last chance at an MVP.

Luka won't have any of that going for him against guys like Giannis, Harden, Lebron. They will all most likely have more wins, Harden and Especially Giannis will get the credit for the wins. Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me. He'll be an all-star and most likely all NBA but he isn't winning MVP.

[leolozon]

The vote did not “often” go elsewhere. It’s literally always a top 2 seed besides Westbrook.

You do realize that you changed your sentence from "top seed" to "top 2 seed" and acted as if I was wrong? That's just so weird that someone could change the premise and act as if they were right all along.

I bring you neutral a formula based on past winners and you still don't want to listen and think you're right. What's the point?

Once again, it generally goes to a top seed because that's where the best player generally is. Lebron won it and his team was the 4th best. Why not a guy on the best 3 teams? Because Lebron was better. Kobe won it on the 3rd best team in the league, despite the Celtics having 9 more wins. Steve Nash won it despite the Suns having 54 wins, because no one thought they could do it without Amare.

When Lebron won it in 2012 it was a shortened lockout season, that was no normal season. Another exception

Kobe won it in 2008 because the Celtics had the big three, so no one single player could be credited for the teams' success like Kobe could, plus kobe had never won one before and the media felt bad that this could have been his last chance at an MVP.

Luka won't have any of that going for him against guys like Giannis, Harden, Lebron. They will all most likely have more wins, Harden and Especially Giannis will get the credit for the wins. Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me. He'll be an all-star and most likely all NBA but he isn't winning MVP.

The odds of him winning are still significative enough for him to be up there. I'm not saying that HE WILL win it when only 20% of the season has been played. You're the one making statements as if things are already done.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Here's your argument : "Exception, exception, exception, exception... This other guy CAN'T win when another team will have more wins!!! I can't even consider it. He won't win."

And here's what you say while using such an argument: "This is why you don't argue with fans, very little reasoning."

Maybe you should look at yourself. Luka has decent odds as of right now, even if I think Giannis is still the guy to beat.

[Yuri36]

Okay, that's nice, it's an 82 game season. You don't need to be a psychic to know that isn't going to be the case of the course of 82 games. Like I said before luka is a cute story rn but he won't be in the MVP convo two months from now, their net rating is insanely inflated rn due to the wins over the cavs and golden state, it will normalise eventually.

Do you also know which players team is 4th on offence, 3rd on defensive and 2nd in net rating? The Bucks and unlike the Dallas Mavs, that level of play is sustainable for them because they've already proved it last year, that's why I have Giannis as my MVP pick, just don't see anyone stopping him from going b2b.

So anything that hasn't happened in the past is sure to not happen in the future? and the same if you take off the "Not" from my question?
What a limited, conservative view of sports and life in general you seem to have....

No, it's called being realistic and not deluded. This is why you don't argue with fans, very little reasoning. If you seriously think the mavs are going to finish top 3 in the west, with the number one offence and best net rating (when adjusted for the opponent difficulty they're 3rd in net rating) I seriously don't know what to tell you other than to start placing bets because you would make a killing.

I have then one question for you, mr realist: before this season, did you realistically believe that Luka doncic would average almost 30-10-10 after 16 games leading the league in PER and in efficiency and with his team leading the offensive stats?
Serious realist answer required

[Vsauce12]

You do realize that you changed your sentence from "top seed" to "top 2 seed" and acted as if I was wrong? That's just so weird that someone could change the premise and act as if they were right all along.

I bring you neutral a formula based on past winners and you still don't want to listen and think you're right. What's the point?

Once again, it generally goes to a top seed because that's where the best player generally is. Lebron won it and his team was the 4th best. Why not a guy on the best 3 teams? Because Lebron was better. Kobe won it on the 3rd best team in the league, despite the Celtics having 9 more wins. Steve Nash won it despite the Suns having 54 wins, because no one thought they could do it without Amare.

When Lebron won it in 2012 it was a shortened lockout season, that was no normal season. Another exception

Kobe won it in 2008 because the Celtics had the big three, so no one single player could be credited for the teams' success like Kobe could, plus kobe had never won one before and the media felt bad that this could have been his last chance at an MVP.

Luka won't have any of that going for him against guys like Giannis, Harden, Lebron. They will all most likely have more wins, Harden and Especially Giannis will get the credit for the wins. Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me. He'll be an all-star and most likely all NBA but he isn't winning MVP.

The odds of him winning are still significative enough for him to be up there. No one is saying that HE WILL win it, only 20% of the season has been played.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Here's your argument : "Exception, exception, exception, exception... This other guy CAN'T win if another [b]team has more wins!!!"[/b]

That's a gross oversimplification of what I said and yes I stand by it. Seeing that the overwhelming majority of MVP winners have literally come from a top-seeded team, the last two coming from the 1 seeded team in the league, it's safe and smart to assume, that's going to be the case again. Sorry i'm not a luka fanboy like you

[Vsauce12]

So anything that hasn't happened in the past is sure to not happen in the future? and the same if you take off the "Not" from my question?
What a limited, conservative view of sports and life in general you seem to have....

No, it's called being realistic and not deluded. This is why you don't argue with fans, very little reasoning. If you seriously think the mavs are going to finish top 3 in the west, with the number one offence and best net rating (when adjusted for the opponent difficulty they're 3rd in net rating) I seriously don't know what to tell you other than to start placing bets because you would make a killing.

I have then one question for you, mr realist: before this season, did you realistically believe that Luka doncic would average almost 30-10-10 after 16 games leading the league in PER and in efficiency and with his team leading the offensive stats?
Serious realist answer required

Through 16 games? Last time I checked the MVP wasn't handed in November, even if it was Luka still wouldn't win it, He'd come third to Bron and Giannis You don't deserve a serious answer because your question is a joke tbh.

[Don7]

[leolozon]

When Lebron won it in 2012 it was a shortened lockout season, that was no normal season. Another exception

Kobe won it in 2008 because the Celtics had the big three, so no one single player could be credited for the teams' success like Kobe could, plus kobe had never won one before and the media felt bad that this could have been his last chance at an MVP.

Luka won't have any of that going for him against guys like Giannis, Harden, Lebron. They will all most likely have more wins, Harden and Especially Giannis will get the credit for the wins. Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me. He'll be an all-star and most likely all NBA but he isn't winning MVP.

The odds of him winning are still significative enough for him to be up there. No one is saying that HE WILL win it, only 20% of the season has been played.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Here's your argument : "Exception, exception, exception, exception... This other guy CAN'T win if another [b]team has more wins!!!"[/b]

That's a gross oversimplification of what I said and yes I stand by it. Seeing that the overwhelming majority of MVP winners have literally come from a top-seeded team, the last two coming from the 1 seeded team in the league, it's safe and smart to assume, that's going to be the case again. Sorry i'm not a luka fanboy like you

ad hominem fallacy. You are sinking lower and didn't even bother to really answer me, because I actually I agree with what you just wrote, showing that you changed your argument.

The vast majority of MVP winners do come from a top seeded team. It is safe to assume that it will be the case again. But that's not what you were writing. You were completely disregarding an eventually : "Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me." You're refusing to even admit that he belongs in the race right now when he so clearly is right up there after 16 games and will be right up there if nothing changes.

Like I said : "Exception, exception, exception, exception... This guy can't win it!"

[Vsauce12]

The odds of him winning are still significative enough for him to be up there. No one is saying that HE WILL win it, only 20% of the season has been played.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Here's your argument : "Exception, exception, exception, exception... This other guy CAN'T win if another [b]team has more wins!!!"[/b]

That's a gross oversimplification of what I said and yes I stand by it. Seeing that the overwhelming majority of MVP winners have literally come from a top-seeded team, the last two coming from the 1 seeded team in the league, it's safe and smart to assume, that's going to be the case again. Sorry i'm not a luka fanboy like you

ad hominem fallacy. You are sinking lower and didn't even bother to answer what I wrote, because I actually I agree with what you just wrote, showing that you changed your argument.

The vast majority of MVP winners do come from a top seeded team. It is safe to assume that it will be the case again. But that's not what you are doing. You are completely disregarding an eventually : "Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me."

How did I disregard anything? When the conclusion to what I wrote was basically, Luka isn't winning the MVP. You're trying way too hard to sound smart and this is pretty much the last time I'm responding to you. Going back and forth with fanatics is a waste of time

[AdagioPace]

Even though +/- and family related should not be used for rankings, just for the sake of entertainment, 2019-2020 PIPM has it in this order.

Oh, but stat lines should? Anyone who doesn't like adjusted +/- stats must really hate winning since stats like pipm do that better than anything you use for rankings.

Giannis
Doncic/Harden 2a/2b
Lebron

My gut feeling surprisingly agrees. Giannis is simply doing "too much" for his team. If voters' fatigue is a thing then I would probably give it to the "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named"

Yes, data is so useful when you use it to reinforce your preconceived notions.

I'm not sure what you're attacking me for. In your comment I perceive:
1)snarkiness
2)void accusations of loving stat-lines

the fact that data coincides with my perception is just a coincidence and I'm certainly not using it to draw any conclusions on data, my senses and a player's value. Your comment is basically an inflated illogical parade of arrogance

[leolozon]

That's a gross oversimplification of what I said and yes I stand by it. Seeing that the overwhelming majority of MVP winners have literally come from a top-seeded team, the last two coming from the 1 seeded team in the league, it's safe and smart to assume, that's going to be the case again. Sorry i'm not a luka fanboy like you

ad hominem fallacy. You are sinking lower and didn't even bother to answer what I wrote, because I actually I agree with what you just wrote, showing that you changed your argument.

The vast majority of MVP winners do come from a top seeded team. It is safe to assume that it will be the case again. But that's not what you are doing. You are completely disregarding an eventually : "Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical to me."

How did I disregard anything? When the conclusion to what I wrote is basically Luka, isn't winning the MVP. You're trying way too hard to sound smart and this is pretty much the last time I'm responding to you. Going back and forth with fanatics is a waste of time

You changed your argument, and I agreed with the second one. Saying :

"the overwhelming majority of MVP winners have literally come from a top-seeded team, the last two coming from the 1 seeded team in the league, it's safe and smart to assume, that's going to be the case again." Which I agree with.

Isn't the same as : "Luka isn't winning MVP this season, trying to argue it seems nonsensical" Which I don't agree with.

A lot of people would agree with the first statement and not with the second. It's hard to understand how someone can't see that. You calling me a "fanatic" even though I'm the one not seeing things in black and white is really weird.

Oh and still another ad hominem. Maybe someday you'll realize that insulting people doesn't make you right. I also can tell you that I'm not trying hard at all to sound smart. But thanks if it looks hard and if it does sound smart.

[Yuri36]

No, it's called being realistic and not deluded. This is why you don't argue with fans, very little reasoning. If you seriously think the mavs are going to finish top 3 in the west, with the number one offence and best net rating (when adjusted for the opponent difficulty they're 3rd in net rating) I seriously don't know what to tell you other than to start placing bets because you would make a killing.

I have then one question for you, mr realist: before this season, did you realistically believe that Luka doncic would average almost 30-10-10 after 16 games leading the league in PER and in efficiency and with his team leading the offensive stats?
Serious realist answer required

Through 16 games? Last time I checked the MVP wasn't handed in November, even if it was Luka still wouldn't win it, He'd come third to Bron and Giannis You don't deserve a serious answer because your question is a joke tbh.

So you didn't answer to my question.
I repeat it then: even though it's only 16 games (which is still 1/5 of the RS), did you honestly believe it could happen, Mister I can predict the future?

[freethedevil]

I have then one question for you, mr realist: before this season, did you realistically believe that Luka doncic would average almost 30-10-10 after 16 games leading the league in PER and in efficiency and with his team leading the offensive stats?
Serious realist answer required

Through 16 games? Last time I checked the MVP wasn't handed in November, even if it was Luka still wouldn't win it, He'd come third to Bron and Giannis You don't deserve a serious answer because your question is a joke tbh.

So you didn't answer to my question.
I repeat it then: even though it's only 16 games (which is still 1/5 of the RS), did you honestly believe it could happen, Mister I can predict the future?

He may only because the media is obssesed with offense only stats. The chances of him actually being better than Giannis this season are negligble

[Dupp]

The MVP usually goes to a player on a top seed, because the player performing the best is usually there. The vote went elsewhere often when people though it wasn’t the case. No need to be a top seed. Basketref has Doncic #1 on its tracker and the model is based on previous winners.

You are wrong to think that Luka would be an exception.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

The vote did not “often” go elsewhere. It’s literally always a top 2 seed besides Westbrook.

You do realize that you changed your sentence from "top seed" to "top 2 seed" and acted as if I was wrong? That's just so weird that someone could change the premise and act as if they were right all along.

I bring you neutral a formula based on past winners and you still don't want to listen and think you're right. What's the point?

Once again, it generally goes to a top seed because that's where the best player generally is. Lebron won it and his team was the 4th best. Why not a guy on the best 3 teams? Because Lebron was better. Kobe won it on the 3rd best team in the league, despite the Celtics having 9 more wins. Steve Nash won it despite the Suns having 54 wins, because no one thought they could do it without Amare.

Ok I see the confusion. When I was saying “a top” I wasn’t meaning literally “the” top seed. Was just a loose term for one of the top or best seeds in the conference, which is always top two.

As for your formula I didn’t really look at it before. So does that accurately predict past winners? I see it’s based off past winners but would be I Interested to see how previous years ranks turned out using the same formula.


Having said that I dunno how deep into advanced stats and stuff all the voters go. A lot of narrative goes into the vote, team record and then level of play and I assume a lot of voters look at pretty basic stats and advanced stats.

Luka is doing something kinda similar to Westbrook so the uniqueness of it isn’t there for the voters. He does have the narrative of being so young and him and the team really exceeding expectations so that could play a huge part.

I don’t think they’ll get a top 4 seed which imo will hurt his chances. But that’s just my prediction. We will see. He’s gonna get a lot of votes though.

[BlueSan]

I am a huge Luka fan but I have to stay realistic, this will be between Giannis, LeBron and Harden, unless Paul George or someone like that gets in the mix with absurd plays and LA Clippers finishing first.

I dont think Luka or Mavs can sustain this. I am amazed as it is....then again every single time this boy surprises me greatly

[Zummba]

This is respect. It should be an interesting game.

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