NBA MVP Discussion 20/21 (Fresh poll ➥ Vote)

[trickshot]

Gotta be embiid and then lebron at this stage. Everyone else has something going against them.

Embiid just can’t miss too many games. I think one think he’s got going for him is not just the improvement of his own play but the massive turnaround for his team. That counts for a lot.

Jokic put up

42.5 pts
10.0 rebs
9.0 asts
0.5 stls
1.5 blks
with 0.5 TO's
on .599/.500/1.000 splits

in his last two games, with a 0.0 +/- in games his team lost by an average of 9.0 points.

I don't really feel like that constitutes falling down in the race.

0-2 and overall record of .500 ( or one game off) is a big factor unfortunately.

It is unfortunately. We all know it's a dumb system. Don't tell us, tell the media voters whom every year make it a "best player on best team" award. 90% of ATGs have had their best statistical seasons unrewarded

[NyKnicks1714]

At this point the biggest variables are team success; the individual numbers won't change much. The Lakers are right around where they will be at the end of the season, so biggest questions are if Denver can climb into the top 4 and if Philly can maintain their position.

Like it or not though, Giannis is going to re-enter the conversation at some point. Milwaukee seems poised to climb in the standings, maybe even finish with the best record overall again.

[clyde21]

As of the afternoon of February 9th, with movement in the last week.

----------------------------------------------------

1. 20.5 - Jokic, DEN +1
2. 19.9 - Leonard, LAC -1
3. 19.2 - James, LAL +2
4. 19.1 - Embiid, PHI
5. 18.5 - Conley, UTA -2

6. 16.7 - Middleton, MIL +2
7. 16.7 - Gobert, UTA -1
8. 16.3 - George, LAC +1
9. 15.9 - Antetokounmpo, MIL (n/a)
10. 15.5 - Davis, LAL

-----------------------------------------------------

As predicted last week, Conley drops two spots despite going 4-0, showing that the formula is starting to normalize.

The formula represents James' great week in an accurate way, instead of slipping into the recency bias (not to speak of other biases) that is human nature.

I also predicted last week that Leonard would drop slightly, which is what he did this week.

Antetokounmpo makes his first appearance after averaging 27/12/5 with 2 blocks per game as Milwaukee went 4-0 with an average MoV of 19 points. Notably, he hit over 74% of his free throws over this stretch after starting the season at 59%.

Durant drops out of the top ten.

i think you need to revisit this formula whatever it is meant to show

[clyde21]

At this point the biggest variables are team success; the individual numbers won't change much. The Lakers are right around where they will be at the end of the season, so biggest questions are if Denver can climb into the top 4 and if Philly can maintain their position.

Like it or not though, Giannis is going to re-enter the conversation at some point. Milwaukee seems poised to climb in the standings, maybe even finish with the best record overall again.

no way Giannis gets it, even if Milly has the #1 seed in the East again.

also there's an argument to be made that Middleton has actually been the best Bucks player this year. not a dig against Giannis, love the guy, but Middleton has been really, really good.

[scrabbarista]

As of the afternoon of February 9th, with movement in the last week.

----------------------------------------------------

1. 20.5 - Jokic, DEN +1
2. 19.9 - Leonard, LAC -1
3. 19.2 - James, LAL +2
4. 19.1 - Embiid, PHI
5. 18.5 - Conley, UTA -2

6. 16.7 - Middleton, MIL +2
7. 16.7 - Gobert, UTA -1
8. 16.3 - George, LAC +1
9. 15.9 - Antetokounmpo, MIL (n/a)
10. 15.5 - Davis, LAL

-----------------------------------------------------

As predicted last week, Conley drops two spots despite going 4-0, showing that the formula is starting to normalize.

The formula represents James' great week in an accurate way, instead of slipping into the recency bias (not to speak of other biases) that is human nature.

I also predicted last week that Leonard would drop slightly, which is what he did this week.

Antetokounmpo makes his first appearance after averaging 27/12/5 with 2 blocks per game as Milwaukee went 4-0 with an average MoV of 19 points. Notably, he hit over 74% of his free throws over this stretch after starting the season at 59%.

Durant drops out of the top ten.

i think you need to revisit this formula whatever it is meant to show

It's meant to select an MVP, and it matches 10 of the last 12 winners. The only ones it doesn't match are 2011, when LeBron James obviously deserved it, and 2017, when the formula would've given it to your boy, Stephen Curry.

[mademan]

As of the afternoon of February 9th, with movement in the last week.

----------------------------------------------------

1. 20.5 - Jokic, DEN +1
2. 19.9 - Leonard, LAC -1
3. 19.2 - James, LAL +2
4. 19.1 - Embiid, PHI
5. 18.5 - Conley, UTA -2

6. 16.7 - Middleton, MIL +2
7. 16.7 - Gobert, UTA -1
8. 16.3 - George, LAC +1
9. 15.9 - Antetokounmpo, MIL (n/a)
10. 15.5 - Davis, LAL

-----------------------------------------------------

As predicted last week, Conley drops two spots despite going 4-0, showing that the formula is starting to normalize.

The formula represents James' great week in an accurate way, instead of slipping into the recency bias (not to speak of other biases) that is human nature.

I also predicted last week that Leonard would drop slightly, which is what he did this week.

Antetokounmpo makes his first appearance after averaging 27/12/5 with 2 blocks per game as Milwaukee went 4-0 with an average MoV of 19 points. Notably, he hit over 74% of his free throws over this stretch after starting the season at 59%.

Durant drops out of the top ten.

i think you need to revisit this formula whatever it is meant to show

It's meant to select an MVP, and it matches 10 of the last 12 winners. The only ones it doesn't match are 2011, when LeBron James obviously deserved it, and 2017, when the formula would've given it to your boy, Stephen Curry.

I think Kawhi is undervalued here, so im fine with him being that high, but if you have Jokic at 1, youre not taking standings into account enough. Only 1 guy in the history of the game has won with that kind of standing, and i think the voters regret that one.

[clyde21]

As of the afternoon of February 9th, with movement in the last week.

----------------------------------------------------

1. 20.5 - Jokic, DEN +1
2. 19.9 - Leonard, LAC -1
3. 19.2 - James, LAL +2
4. 19.1 - Embiid, PHI
5. 18.5 - Conley, UTA -2

6. 16.7 - Middleton, MIL +2
7. 16.7 - Gobert, UTA -1
8. 16.3 - George, LAC +1
9. 15.9 - Antetokounmpo, MIL (n/a)
10. 15.5 - Davis, LAL

-----------------------------------------------------

As predicted last week, Conley drops two spots despite going 4-0, showing that the formula is starting to normalize.

The formula represents James' great week in an accurate way, instead of slipping into the recency bias (not to speak of other biases) that is human nature.

I also predicted last week that Leonard would drop slightly, which is what he did this week.

Antetokounmpo makes his first appearance after averaging 27/12/5 with 2 blocks per game as Milwaukee went 4-0 with an average MoV of 19 points. Notably, he hit over 74% of his free throws over this stretch after starting the season at 59%.

Durant drops out of the top ten.

i think you need to revisit this formula whatever it is meant to show

It's meant to select an MVP, and it matches 10 of the last 12 winners. The only ones it doesn't match are 2011, when LeBron James obviously deserved it, and 2017, when the formula would've given it to your boy, Stephen Curry.

what's the trigger point for it to have a guy like Conley above Steph? and if you are weighing standings, how does it explain Jokic #1? there just doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason here on the surface.

[bebopdeluxe]

Here's FiveThirtyEight's take as of today:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joel-embiid-changed-his-offseason-conditioning-now-hes-playing-like-an-mvp/

Hard to argue with FACTS and STATISTICS. Number one in offensive efficiency and anchoring the NBA's #1 4th quarter defense.

[scrabbarista]

i think you need to revisit this formula whatever it is meant to show

It's meant to select an MVP, and it matches 10 of the last 12 winners. The only ones it doesn't match are 2011, when LeBron James obviously deserved it, and 2017, when the formula would've given it to your boy, Stephen Curry.

what's the trigger point for it to have a guy like Conley above Steph? and if you are weighing standings, how does it explain Jokic #1? there just doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason here on the surface.

You ask how Conley's higher than Steph and Jokic is #1.

Obviously, the formula values both team success and stats.

Anyway, don't take it too seriously. Just relax and enjoy the ride. Nikola Vucevic is 5th in VORP right now, but no one is saying it's proof that VORP needs to be redone.

[clyde21]

It's meant to select an MVP, and it matches 10 of the last 12 winners. The only ones it doesn't match are 2011, when LeBron James obviously deserved it, and 2017, when the formula would've given it to your boy, Stephen Curry.

what's the trigger point for it to have a guy like Conley above Steph? and if you are weighing standings, how does it explain Jokic #1? there just doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason here on the surface.

You ask how Conley's higher than Steph and Jokic is #1.

Obviously, the formula values both team success and stats.

Anyway, don't take it too seriously. Just relax and enjoy the ride. Nikola Vucevic is 5th in VORP right now, but no one is saying it's proof that VORP needs to be redone.

touche

[MarcusBrody]

Here's FiveThirtyEight's take as of today:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joel-embiid-changed-his-offseason-conditioning-now-hes-playing-like-an-mvp/

Hard to argue with FACTS and STATISTICS. Number one in offensive efficiency and anchoring the NBA's #1 4th quarter defense.

You my friend have never been to a conference full of people who know what they're talking about statistically. Every statistical model is the product of a tremendous number of assumptions, decisions, and premises - from how the data categories are defined, where its boundaries are drawn, and then which model is chosen and how it's implemented. I love statistics and think they're extremely useful, but it is definitely not hard to argue with "FACTS" and "STATISTICS".

That being said, Embiid is making a strong case if he can stay healthy.

[MindState]

If the Warriors had a better record Curry would be the MVP by a landslide.

[scrabbarista]

what's the trigger point for it to have a guy like Conley above Steph? and if you are weighing standings, how does it explain Jokic #1? there just doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason here on the surface.

You ask how Conley's higher than Steph and Jokic is #1.

Obviously, the formula values both team success and stats.

Anyway, don't take it too seriously. Just relax and enjoy the ride. Nikola Vucevic is 5th in VORP right now, but no one is saying it's proof that VORP needs to be redone.

touche

For what it's worth, I expect Steph to be top ten, minimum (he's already top fifteen), by season's end. And Conley's unsustainable +/- stats are what's propping him up, so he's going to drop, for sure.

[bebopdeluxe]

Here's FiveThirtyEight's take as of today:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joel-embiid-changed-his-offseason-conditioning-now-hes-playing-like-an-mvp/

Hard to argue with FACTS and STATISTICS. Number one in offensive efficiency and anchoring the NBA's #1 4th quarter defense.

You my friend have never been to a conference full of people who know what they're talking about statistically. Every statistical model is the product of a tremendous number of assumptions, decisions, and premises - from how the data categories are defined, where its boundaries are drawn, and then which model is chosen and how it's implemented. I love statistics and think they're extremely useful, but it is definitely not hard to argue with "FACTS" and "STATISTICS".

That being said, Embiid is making a strong case if he can stay healthy.

A plus 30% usage rate and 65% efficiency has been done once - Steph in 2016 (unanimous MVP).

That's not "boundaries" or which "model" is "chosen". What that "is" is RIDICULOUS.

[MarcusBrody]

Here's FiveThirtyEight's take as of today:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joel-embiid-changed-his-offseason-conditioning-now-hes-playing-like-an-mvp/

Hard to argue with FACTS and STATISTICS. Number one in offensive efficiency and anchoring the NBA's #1 4th quarter defense.

You my friend have never been to a conference full of people who know what they're talking about statistically. Every statistical model is the product of a tremendous number of assumptions, decisions, and premises - from how the data categories are defined, where its boundaries are drawn, and then which model is chosen and how it's implemented. I love statistics and think they're extremely useful, but it is definitely not hard to argue with "FACTS" and "STATISTICS".

That being said, Embiid is making a strong case if he can stay healthy.

A plus 30% usage rate and 65% efficiency has been done once - Steph in 2016 (unanimous MVP).

That's not "boundaries" or which "model" is "chosen". What that "is" is RIDICULOUS.

i have no problem with anyone claiming that Embiid is a/the MVP frontrunner. But you can still statistically quibble. Steph did that over 79 games. I suspect that there have been numerous players that have also done it over 19 games (for instance, Jokic has this year and is now just below it with .646 TS%), but they regressed to the mean. Maybe Embiid has become a notably better shooter, but his 3 point and (especially) long two shooting percentages seem to be likely to drop so we'll see if he can maintain it. He seems to have a unique ability among bigs in the league to draw foul calls, so that will certainly help keep it up, but we shall see. While statisticians will have adjusted their Embiid forecast upwards, I'm not sure they'll have changed it as much as you'd like.

[Big J]

If dubs can secure a top 6 seed in the West and Curry keeps this up he would absolutely deserve it.

[eyeatoma]

The MVP had a down game today, but he turned it up in the 4th quarter with game changing defense, and marching to the free throw line.

[moderndarwin]

Steph cookin again tonight

[Ilovethebay]

If dubs can secure a top 6 seed in the West and Curry keeps this up he would absolutely deserve it.

Insane efficiency for a guy that teams sell out for every night to stop. Unfortunately I think the Warriors need to grab at least the 4th seed for him to have a decent chance. Especially if Embiid keeps up his current play and they grab the 1st seed.

[BoatsNZones]

MVP is a narrative and your team is a paramount factor. We all know this. I do know that Curry and Lebron are the two best players in the NBA, and have been for the last 10+ years for Bron, and 6+ years for Curry. Lebron could not make it to the promised land with scrubs in LA and neither can Curry now, but with proper help these are the only two players who will consistently lead a team to the title in the NBA.

There's no MVP front-runner yet, so let's just go with the best players in the league.

Jokic, Embiid and Kawhi clearly have strong arguments though.