thedarkstark wrote:Sitting here laughing at all the people who couldn't see how obvious it was 10 months ago Ayton was the clear #1
Doncic and JJJ may eventually be on his level, but you knew you from day 1 you were getting a 20/10 beast in the middle with Ayton.
He's going to run away with ROY.
As someone who wouldn’t have taken Ayton in the top 5 (probably 6th on my big board) I will say he does look better than I expected. His passing is the one thing I think I think that I underestimated, as he wasn’t really playmaking out of the post like he did yesterday in summer league or at Arizona.
However, I was never ever in doubt that’s Ayton would produce in the box score. He’s too physically imposing and too skilled in the post not to score on high volume and pretty efficiently, as well. Not to mention his midrange has always been money and he’s a great rebounder. And I did expect him be the leading contender for ROTY right alongside Doncic (or maybe slightly behind, but it’s looking like Ayton will win it right now). His arsenal down low is really polished right now.
The things I was worried about were:
- His defense, specifically help rim protection and PnR as I think he’ll be fine 1-on-1
- His motor because at basically every level up until the pros he’s tended to walk up the court at times, float around at points, and sometimes fall in love with the midrange
- His potential to extend his range to 3
- His ability to make plays out of the post and make good decisions out of double teams
If Ayton at his best was a 25 ppg / 12 rpg / 2 apg / 3 topg / 60% TS guy with below average defense and no floor spacing out to three for example, personally I don’t think that’s THAT valuable of a player. Probably something like a +1.5 to +2.0 on offense and a -0.5 to -1.0 on defense. I should mention here that I’m not high on Boogie’s impact.
So when Ayton posted 13 turnovers to
0 assists in 4 Summer League games, along with 0 three point attempts...I was very, very concerned. But Ayton racked up 6 assists yesterday to 0 turnovers. He was quick and decisive in the post. And while his defense didn’t look great, he didn’t look lost either, so maybe there’s some potential there. His shot is flat so while it works well up to 16 feet out, he’s still a long way from legitimate three point range in my opinion.
I think in today's game, besides very rare exceptions, the only bigs who yield serious positive offensive impact (let’s call it +2.5 and above) are:
- All-time unstoppable forces inside who make really good decisions out of the double (Shaq, Kareem)
- “Point” bigs who can pretty much run an offense (Jokic, Walton, Garnett)
- Floor spacers with crazy gravity (Nowitzki, Love)
- Super skilled and efficient mobile guys with no real offensive weaknesses and the ability to take guys off the dribble (Davis, Towns, Barkley - though obviously their individual games differ)
And I didn’t know if Ayton would really fit into any of these categories. With the first category there’s a big difference between being Cousins or Embiid in the post and Shaq or Kareem. I wasn’t seeing 5+ apg in him like a Jokic for instance who’s a special facilitator. I didn’t see him as some amazing floor spacer. More so a guy with an Aldridge-level midrange game. And then I wasn’t seeing the all-around offensive ability that Davis and Towns demonstrate who basically are as skilled as SFs but in C bodies.
However, what I'm thinking now is that maybe he is one of the unique cases and we’ve got a guy who needs to be doubled in the post a lot like Embiid and Cousins, but makes better decisions passing out of the post than those two have in their careers and doesn’t turn it over as much, scores even more efficiently (like 60-63% TS), and although it wouldn't make or break him eventually extends his range out to 3. And if he does that while becoming a good defender (like +1 or more on that end) then he’ll be well worth that number one pick. In his prime, 26 ppg / 12 rpg / 4 apg / 62% TS with good defense while trying to develop a three ball would be my hope for him. Not saying he should be shooting a ton out there, but if he can step out a bit and space the floor for penetrating guards at times that would be really helpful. I guess what you basically hope to see him turn into is David Robinson or Duncan on offense - guys who do maybe aren't "point" bigs and don't shoot from more than 16 feet out and can't really collapse the defense by driving from the perimeter, but just do everything across the board at an elite or near elite level.
