Victor Wembanyama Mega-Thread - For all your Wembanyama needs!

[formula 400]

the Black Mo Bamba has pretty good statline tonight!

[Johnny Firpo]

Just a gentle reminder... if people think this guy is a better 3 pt shooter than someone like Westbrook or Giannis, he's not.
He's many other things but not that.

Watching Wemby shoot, and not just from three point land but mid range and his free throws, it is very-very clear for me that he is going to be at least a Porzingis, Joker or Embiid level three-point shooter in the NBA. I have zero doubt about that. That's gonna be his floor, 35-36% on 3 to 5 attempts.

[Pachinko_]

Just a gentle reminder... if people think this guy is a better 3 pt shooter than someone like Westbrook or Giannis, he's not.
He's many other things but not that.

Watching Wemby shoot, and not just from three point land but mid range and his free throws, it is very-very clear for me that he is going to be at least a Porzingis, Joker or Embiid level three-point shooter in the NBA. I have zero doubt about that. That's gonna be his floor, 35-36% on 3 to 5 attempts.

yeah that happens too, it's entirely possible.
Of course what most commonly happens is that a guy starts out a bad shooter and the team that drafted him waits, and waits, and waits.... You want to see how smooth and nice Giannis's shot looked before the NBA?

[Kineto]

Of course what most commonly happens is that a guy starts out a bad shooter and the team that drafted him waits, and waits, and waits.... You want to see how smooth and nice Giannis's shot looked before the NBA?

If you go checked some good 3pt shooting big men, you will not see a lot of them put some big shooting percentage à 20 years old or younger.

rookie Kevin Durant : 28,8% 3Pt shooting
rookie Dirk Nowitzki : 20,6%
rookie Joel Embiid : 36,7% (but was already 22yo, and shoot 30% the next two season)
rookie Myles Turner : 21,4% (on 0,2 3 pts field goal attempts per game)
Anthony Davis : doesn't shoot 3pt consistently untill his 4th years in NBA

The best exemple i find are
rookie Nicola Jokic : 33,3%
rookie Porzingis : 33,3%
KAT was at 34,1% on his rookie season, but with low attemps (1,1 per match)

I don't think there is lot of exemple of big men shooting consistently over 35% at 19-20 yo

[Johnny Firpo]

Just a gentle reminder... if people think this guy is a better 3 pt shooter than someone like Westbrook or Giannis, he's not.
He's many other things but not that.

Watching Wemby shoot, and not just from three point land but mid range and his free throws, it is very-very clear for me that he is going to be at least a Porzingis, Joker or Embiid level three-point shooter in the NBA. I have zero doubt about that. That's gonna be his floor, 35-36% on 3 to 5 attempts.

yeah that happens too, it's entirely possible.
Of course what most commonly happens is that a guy starts out a bad shooter and the team that drafted him waits, and waits, and waits.... You want to see how smooth and nice Giannis's shot looked before the NBA?

Giannis is probably my third favorite player, I remember how his three looked better in his early years, and I also remember him being a good free throw shooter. However, his jumper never looked this good, this smooth from an aesthetic point of view. I think with Wemby, there is even a chance that he is going to be an elite shooter. Wouldn't rule it out.

[The Master]

If you go checked some good 3pt shooting big men, you will not see a lot of them put some big shooting percentage à 20 years old or younger.

It's all about projection, actually going from ~70% to over 80%FT with great mechanics is far more important than being mediocre 3pt shooter on its own, this is where this comparison with weak shooters like Giannis starts and ends. He's a volume scorer in pro league as 18/19yo, obviously he takes many low percentage shots. He projects to be very good-to-great shooting big on every level (mechanics, FT%, footwork).

[Pachinko_]

Of course what most commonly happens is that a guy starts out a bad shooter and the team that drafted him waits, and waits, and waits.... You want to see how smooth and nice Giannis's shot looked before the NBA?

If you go checked some good 3pt shooting big men, you will not see a lot of them put some big shooting percentage à 20 years old or younger.

rookie Kevin Durant : 28,8% 3Pt shooting
rookie Dirk Nowitzki : 20,6%
rookie Joel Embiid : 36,7% (but was already 22yo, and shoot 30% the next two season)
rookie Myles Turner : 21,4% (on 0,2 3 pts field goal attempts per game)
Anthony Davis : doesn't shoot 3pt consistently untill his 4th years in NBA

The best exemple i find are
rookie Nicola Jokic : 33,3%
rookie Porzingis : 33,3%
KAT was at 34,1% on his rookie season, but with low attemps (1,1 per match)

I don't think there is lot of exemple of big men shooting consistently over 35% at 19-20 yo

whoa buddy, hang on.
Durant was a 40% 3pt shooter in college. Of course he took a dip in the first year, sometimes there's an adjustment period for rookies.
Embiid never was and still isnt a good 3pt shooter, he is below average for his career with some exceptions. I college he wasn't even shooting 3s at all.
Nowitzki was not even shooting 3s in his first year, he wasn't even starting. The guy had just come straight from the second division in Germany for christ sake. Still learning the basics pretty much.

But regardless, I didn't say Wembanyama is not a good 3 pt shooter compared to other bigs. Bigs usually suck at shooting.
I said he's not a good 3pt shooter period.

[The Master]

Of course he took a dip in the first year

So he wasn't a good 3pt shooter as 19yo, period.

It doesn't make sense to compare Wembanyama to players (Giannis, Westbrook) who had much lower shooting projection based on their splits and mechanics.

I don't have data for Wemby regarding his midrange J, but 29% from 3pt line is an equivalent of 44% from 2.

FT/midrange jumpers/3pt%

Embiid: 68.5%/36.5%/20.0% (0.2 attempts)
Davis: 70.9%, 38.5%, 15.0% (0.5 attempts)
Jokic: 69.1%, ---, 32.6% (3.2 attempts)
Towns: 81.3%, 43.1%, 25.0% (0.2 attempts)
Markkanen: 83.5%, 42.4%, 42.3% (4.4 attempts)
Randle: 70.6%, 34.5%, 16.7% (0.5 attempts)
Porzingis: 75.2%, ---, 35.9% (much lower volume)
Jackson Jr: 79.7%, ---, 39.7% (much lower volume, shorter line)

That's why Wembanyama projects so great as a shooter - basically only Markkanen among contemporary all-star bigs had better splits than 19yo Wembanyama in respective age - Jackson Jr had odd mechanics and non-existent footwork as a college player, so he basically played only as a spot up shooter. None of them had as good footwork as Wembanyama nor played on similar volume offensively (especially in pro league).

We shouldn't hold Wembanyama's 3pt% against him when overall he has so great projection as a shooter considering his age, mechanics, splits, role on his team, footwork. The question is whether he can improve to the Markkanen-level shooter, not whether he'll be a very good 3pt shooter or not (this is just realistic expectation).

[Pachinko_]

I don't actually care how he compares to other bigs.
If you are a below average 3pt shooter and you keep shooting 3s you're hurting your team, period. Regardless how big you are.
If your team shoots 3s below average and the other team shoots average you lose the game, it's simple math.

This guy will get the ball a lot in whichever team drafts him, and he will shoot a lot. And that will be his weakness. Probably his only important weakness actually.

[The Master]

I don't actually care how he compares to other bigs.

So why do you bother to comment on a prospect if you don't care about his prospects or typical curve of development for bigs? Or perhaps data doesn't support your narrative when in reality vast majority of all star-level bigs improved rapidly in the NBA shooting-wise, and Wembanyama's floor is just higher than players' in most of these cases since he's already >80%FT shooter? And eye-test gets even better when you realize he shows glimpses of footwork allowing him to be a movement shooter (what's completely surreal for his size), with great footwork allowing him already to create his shots on midrange and so on?

Wembanyama isn't very good 3pt shooter right now. Wembanyama on every level has great projection to be at least very good 3pt shooter as an NBA player. The latter is much more important than the former.

PERIOD.

[Maf]

I had the chance to watch VW for the first time during our national team qualifiers against France and... yeah, pretty sold on him. He started slow, missed shots all over the place, even being dunked on TWICE! So yeah... I had some thoughts about if he isn´t too hyped up.

He ended up with 22 points (4/12 on 2 shots, but 4/7 on 3 with shooting motion smooth as silk), 17 rebounds, 4 steals, 6 blocks. And like 10+ times he forced our players to shoot terrible contested shot with no chance to going in.

Of course, he is not able to make NBA team a contenteder in first few seasons, still got a lot to learn. But the talent is unbelievable.

[UcanUwill]

I don't actually care how he compares to other bigs.
If you are a below average 3pt shooter and you keep shooting 3s you're hurting your team, period. Regardless how big you are.
If your team shoots 3s below average and the other team shoots average you lose the game, it's simple math.

This guy will get the ball a lot in whichever team drafts him, and he will shoot a lot. And that will be his weakness. Probably his only important weakness actually.

He looks like perennial DPOY and a guy who can face up, euro step and run like Small forward while being 7 foot 4. Yeah, he is bad shooter and his shot selection is bad at times, go figure he is not the GOAT yet at age 18

[Kobe187]

Taller version of KD, will probably play PF/SF at the NBA level. 7”4 pull up shooter, yikes.

[Pachinko_]

Wembanyama isn't very good 3pt shooter right now.

Good, I'm glad we agree

[Pachinko_]

So to summarise:

I said the guy is not a good 3pt shooter. I don't think there's any disagreement there.

Then we had a secondary discussion whether we should be comparing him to bigs only. And I said no, that is irrelevant. Why? Because this guy will be a high usage player, he will hold the ball a lot and take a lot of shots. And when that happens he needs to be as good as the other team's high usage player at finishing those shots. Being a better shooter than Gobert is not going to save you at that point, he has to be around league average at least. Otherwise that will be an exploitable weakness.

Then someone said yes but sometimes shooting improves. And I said yes sometimes it does. But sometimes it doesn't.

Clear now?

[gumbercules]

I think we all know what is going to happen.

Portland, despite the odds, will win the draft lottery. They will draft Wemby, who will have a short injury riddled career. Henderson will go on to be a sure fire first ballot hall-of-famer and Portland will be mocked forever for selecting Wemby over him. Just like Bowie over Jordan and Oden over Durant. It is destined.

[_Und3r][D4wg_]

It's always a privilege to witness generational talents blossom right before our eyes as they grow, write, and rewrite the game's history with every passing year.

Hopefully Wemba-mania lives up to the hype and plays out more normally than Zion's injury-riddled career.

[UcanUwill]

So to summarise:

I said the guy is not a good 3pt shooter. I don't think there's any disagreement there.

Then we had a secondary discussion whether we should be comparing him to bigs only. And I said no, that is irrelevant. Why? Because this guy will be a high usage player, he will hold the ball a lot and take a lot of shots. And when that happens he needs to be as good as the other team's high usage player at finishing those shots. Being a better shooter than Gobert is not going to save you at that point, he has to be around league average at least. Otherwise that will be an exploitable weakness.

Then someone said yes but sometimes shooting improves. And I said yes sometimes it does. But sometimes it doesn't.

Clear now?

You are not incorrect, but the kid is very young, his touch, form, and FT shooting seem way better than average, and he shows shooters potential. at age 18, honestly not many players shoot over 30% from 3 in general at a consistant basis, even some who are projected to be shooters. It is Wemby's weakness, but not a glaring one and only really noticeable, because the rest of his game is so insane good already. If Zach Eddy was having those percentages on those kind of shots sometimes, we would be declaring him surefire floor spacer in a few years and that would probably be seen as his biggest potential strength. Where in Wemby, it is his main weakness.

[Gordon]

This kid is extremely overrated.

He will struggle defending in space in the NBA....bigger court, better athletes
He will struggle with fast-paced NBA style...he already struggles in Europe running up and down the court when game gets herky-jerky
He will struggle with longer 3-point line....he is already shooting poor percentage in Europe
He will struggle with stronger NBA guys.....he already has issues with guys who can push him around in lowly French league
He makes poor decisions and lacks next level passing ability...

People get so excited because he is unusual. Never before we had such a tall guy with smooth shooting mechanics. With that said, i dont think he is a generational talent. Cannot see the way he develops into the best player on a championship team. First and foremost, there are injury, durability and stamina issues. He could be Zion 2.0 in that regard. And then there is skill-set, you cannot run your offense through him possession after possession. He doesnt have ability to create his own shot on consistent basis.

Gobert with a jumpshot if he stays healthy. Which is pretty good, but not quite MVP caliber.

[Ayt]

3-PT:
Giannis: 27% on 3 attempts
Westbrook: 29% on 4.1 attempts
Wemby: 29% on 5.4 attempts, a lot of them fadeaways and super deep 3's

Yeah, that's all in the "crap" category. Giannis and Westrbrook have also fluctuated slightly over or under 30% at various stages in their career, which is still firmly planted in the crap category.

Unless you get consistently to the league average which is 35-36% you should really be avoiding shooting 3s as much as possible. Because teams are going to dare you to shoot and at that point you're only hurting your team, you're better off giving the ball to someone who can actually shoot.

All the other off balance, step back stuff that he does? yeah ok we all saw it, we're all very impressed, now stop doing it.

He just turned 19. Why should he stop trying to figure out and expand his game? He has great form and is shooting 81% from the free throw line.