2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

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Who do you think are the best two rookies?

Ayton
147
18%
Bagley
12
1%
Bamba
6
1%
Carter
15
2%
Doncic
424
51%
Gilgeous-Alexander
18
2%
Jackson
159
19%
Knox
18
2%
Sexton
6
1%
Young
20
2%
 
Total votes: 825

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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#721 » by Bob8 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:49 am

sunsbg wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
sunsbg wrote:
Leads the starters in FG%, Holmes is a garbage points scorer, so can't really count him. But you probably don't think scoring efficiently is that important.


Is there any team, whose C is not having the best Fg% of the team?


Is there any team, the player holding the ball most of the time is not 1st/2nd in assists ? ;) Can go all day long using such weak logic ;) Bye.


Nice talking to you. ;)
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#722 » by mabundo_nagumbe » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:18 pm

Who do you guys (especially Ayton stans) think is more FUN to watch, Luka or DA? This doesn't concern who is better (also because there is an obvious general opinion that Luka is the one who is better and many of us are getting fed up with this debate)
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#723 » by sunsbg » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:44 pm

mabundo_nagumbe wrote:Who do you guys (especially Ayton stans) think is more FUN to watch, Luka or DA? This doesn't concern who is better (also because there is an obvious general opinion that Luka is the one who is better and many of us are getting fed up with this debate)


90% will say Luka obviously and it will be true. Still I'm missing the great bigs from the past, would have loved to see Shaq, The Dream, Ewing and the Admiral dominate in todays NBA. Ayton is not playing like any of them(a bit of DR and PE though), too perimeter oriented, which makes his FG% that more impressive.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#724 » by Archx » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:59 pm

sunsbg wrote:
mabundo_nagumbe wrote:Who do you guys (especially Ayton stans) think is more FUN to watch, Luka or DA? This doesn't concern who is better (also because there is an obvious general opinion that Luka is the one who is better and many of us are getting fed up with this debate)


90% will say Luka obviously and it will be true. Still I'm missing the great bigs from the past, would have loved to see Shaq, The Dream, Ewing and the Admiral dominate in todays NBA. Ayton is not playing like any of them(a bit of DR and PE though), too perimeter oriented, which makes his FG% that more impressive.


Ayton is fun to watch because he is athletic and can really jump lol... But he also has an automatic mid range jumper, which is also a very nice weapon to have as a big guy. I just wish he would try and get more rebounds, because he has the body to do so. He really reminds me of Ewing/Robinson combo, so once he figures it out, he'll be a hell of a fun player to watch. But right now, Luka already produced so many highlights in only 30 games, it's absurd.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#725 » by mcmurphy » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:07 pm

Post#1293 » by mcmurphy » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:52 pm

Some considerations about BPM (rookie players with mpg>23).

Player Age MP TS PER TOV% USG% BPM
Luka Doncic /19 /35.7/0.579 /14.5 /19.5 /25.4 /-2.3
Trae Young /20 /31.5/0.518 /14.6 /14.5 /26.6 /-3.1
Deandre Ayton /20 /31.2/0.667 /24 /8.2 /19.9 /4.5
Shai Gilgeous /20 /26.5/0.592 /13.7 /19.4 /15 /3.4
Jaren Jackson /19 /25/0.540 /18.1 /7.7 /23.2 /2.7
Wendell Carter /19 /23.7/0.480 /12.2 /13.6 /19.1 /-3.2
Collin Sexton /20 /23.5/0.522 /10.8 /14.6 /22.3 /-7.6
Marvin Bagley /19 /23.3/0.578 /18 /18.1 /23.7 /-0.1

The best players based on BPM are:
Ayton
Shai
JJ
Bagley
Doncic
Trae

The most important part of BPM formula is (see BBref glossary):
- g*USG%*TO% + h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%)

so the ADVANCED parameters most important are USG%, TO% and TS%.

IMO to have potential all-star caliber players we must have at least 35mpg, with high USG%, high TS% and possibly low TO rate.

Ayton very low TO%, high TS%, low USG (<20%) => increase 4mpg and USG%, mantaining TO e TS% => BPM+ (possible)
Shai very high TO% , good TS%, very low USG (15%) => increase 8 mpg and USG% and reduce TO => big boost BPM++ (difficult but possible)
JJ very low TO%, average TS% good usage rate (23%) => increase 10mpg mantain adv stats (difficult)
Bagley high TO%, good TS%, good USG% (23.7) => increase 12 mpg (difficult)
Doncic very high TO% , good TS%, very high USG (>25%) => ok mpg only reduce TO% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)
Trae high TO%, low TS%, very high USG (>25%) => +3 mpg only increase TS% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)


update my post after 2 months:

Player Age MP TS PER TOV% USG% BPM
Luka Doncic /19 /32.4/0.561 /17.1 /17.3 /26.6 / +1.8 (-2.3)
Deandre Ayton /20 /30.6/0.614 /20.6 /12.6 /21.2 / +1.4 (+4.5)
Collin Sexton /20 /29.7/0.507 /10.9 /13.7 /25.4 / -6.1 (-7.6)
Trae Young /20 /29.2/0.479 /11.6 /19.5 /28.1 / -5.8 (-3.1)
Shai Gilgeous /20 /27.3/0.566 /13.2 /16.3 /17.6 / +0.2 (+3.4)
Jaren Jackson /19 /25.3/0.592 /18.0 /12.3 /22.4 / +2.2 (+2.7)
Wendell Carter /19 /24.8/0.534 /15.4 /13.8 /20.1 / -0.1 (-3.2)
Marvin Bagley /19 /23.1/0.592 /18.4 /13.4 /22.2 / -1.1 (-0.1)

Doncic:
As I had foreseen it was enough to keep high USG% and good TS% and lowering TOV% to boost BPM (from -2.3 to +1.8)

Ayton:
Increasing the USG% has increasing TOV% and lowering TS% (as expected) ---> BPM boosted down (from +4.5 to +1.4)
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#726 » by Hesh » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:07 pm

Archx wrote:
sunsbg wrote:
mabundo_nagumbe wrote:Who do you guys (especially Ayton stans) think is more FUN to watch, Luka or DA? This doesn't concern who is better (also because there is an obvious general opinion that Luka is the one who is better and many of us are getting fed up with this debate)


90% will say Luka obviously and it will be true. Still I'm missing the great bigs from the past, would have loved to see Shaq, The Dream, Ewing and the Admiral dominate in todays NBA. Ayton is not playing like any of them(a bit of DR and PE though), too perimeter oriented, which makes his FG% that more impressive.


Ayton is fun to watch because he is athletic and can really jump lol... But he also has an automatic mid range jumper, which is also a very nice weapon to have as a big guy. I just wish he would try and get more rebounds, because he has the body to do so. He really reminds me of Ewing/Robinson combo, so once he figures it out, he'll be a hell of a fun player to watch. But right now, Luka already produced so many highlights in only 30 games, it's absurd.


Yeah he needs to position himself to get more rebounds because his rebounding efficiency is up there

REB Chance %
(68.7%) Deandre Ayton
(67.6%) DeAndre Jordan
(64.4%) Andre Drummond
(64.3%) Clint Capela
(62.8%) Kevin Love
(62.7%) Rudy Gobert
(62.4%) Anthony Davis
(61.9%) Nikola Jokic
(60.8%) Karl Anthony Towns
(59.1%) Joel Embiid
(51.4%) Steven Adams

REB Chances
(24.1) Andre Drummond
(22.4) Joel Embiid
(21.5) Kevin Love
(20.4) DeAndre Jordan
(19.8) Anthony Davis
(19.8) Steven Adams
(19.7) Rudy Gobert
(19.4) Karl Anthony Towns
(18.2) Clint Capela
(16.4) Nikola Jokic
(15.3) Deandre Ayton

Contested Reb % [ A rebound where an opponent is within 3.5 feet of the rebounder ]
(50.7%) Andre Drummond
(48.1%) Steven Adams
(45.5%) Anthony Davis
(41.3%) Clint Capela
(39.5%) Karl Anthony Towns
(36.8%) Deandre Ayton
(36.7%) Nikola Jokic
(34.4%) DeAndre Jordan
(34.2%) Rudy Gobert
(33.6%) Joel Embiid
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#727 » by 3toheadmelo » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:13 pm

Archx wrote:
Hesh wrote:
Ayton has:

511 points
334 rebs
75 ast

Damn he needed 25 more assists, almost made it. But this is at 32 games, so he's 4 games over. Not bad though. At least he would've had almost double the amount of rebounds needed to qualify :lol:


Ayton is starting to play like a veteran center... Dude is slowly figuring out. I am incredibly impressed by his last performances.

he needs time to figure out everything. he's a rookie that has already missed key development years. i was reading about this a couple days ago.
Ayton came somewhat late to the game, first really surfacing in the States at the 2013 Pangos All-American Camp as a 14-year-old. At Phoenix's Hillcrest Prep, becoming a defensive anchor wasn't a priority and he had total freedom to roam.

• While a standout on the Nike EYBL circuit, Ayton participated in minimal FIBA competition. He had few opportunities to learn on the fly in meaningful games like fellow bigs Wendell Carter Jr. or Jackson had. Simply put, Ayton -- already missing key development years early on -- wasn't always held accountable or tested on the floor before arriving in Tucson.


the good thing is that ayton is already showing improvements. just give him a year or 2 and watch how good he'll be :o

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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#728 » by NapoleonII » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:21 pm

It’s Mark Cuban’s boy wonder’s to lose.

Ayton has been improving weekly and the scorching Suns might be 2-5 games near Dallas’s record (especially considering how hard Suns schedule was, implementing Koko’s system to rookies, shedding dead weight in Chandler and Ariza and Anderson).

We’ve got ourselves a 2 man race and both of them are looking like stars.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#729 » by E-Balla » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:19 pm

3toheadmelo wrote:
Archx wrote:
Hesh wrote:
Ayton has:

511 points
334 rebs
75 ast

Damn he needed 25 more assists, almost made it. But this is at 32 games, so he's 4 games over. Not bad though. At least he would've had almost double the amount of rebounds needed to qualify :lol:


Ayton is starting to play like a veteran center... Dude is slowly figuring out. I am incredibly impressed by his last performances.

he needs time to figure out everything. he's a rookie that has already missed key development years. i was reading about this a couple days ago.
Ayton came somewhat late to the game, first really surfacing in the States at the 2013 Pangos All-American Camp as a 14-year-old. At Phoenix's Hillcrest Prep, becoming a defensive anchor wasn't a priority and he had total freedom to roam.

• While a standout on the Nike EYBL circuit, Ayton participated in minimal FIBA competition. He had few opportunities to learn on the fly in meaningful games like fellow bigs Wendell Carter Jr. or Jackson had. Simply put, Ayton -- already missing key development years early on -- wasn't always held accountable or tested on the floor before arriving in Tucson.


the good thing is that ayton is already showing improvements. just give him a year or 2 and watch how good he'll be :o

Read on Twitter

He's improving on defense but improving from horrific to bad. 59% and 1 bpg the last month is terrible.

Doncic is closing the gap quickly now that he's finally playing like the stans thought he was playing the whole year. He seems to have figured out the speed of NBA ball and his turnovers are plummeting recently.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#730 » by Hesh » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:35 pm

E-Balla wrote:He's improving on defense but improving from horrific to bad. 59% and 1 bpg the last month is terrible.

Doncic is closing the gap quickly now that he's finally playing like the stans thought he was playing the whole year. He seems to have figured out the speed of NBA ball and his turnovers are plummeting recently.


Read on Twitter


Right now he's allowing 47.1% for the season and 45% for December

Jusuf Nurkic (44.0%)
Joel Embiid (45.0%)
Karl Anthony Towns (46.3%)
Deandre Ayton (47.1%)
Steven Adams (48.1%)
Rudy Gobert (48.8%)
Clint Capela (48.9%)
DeAndre Jordan (49.8%)
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#731 » by 3toheadmelo » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:52 pm

E-Balla wrote:
3toheadmelo wrote:
Archx wrote:
Ayton is starting to play like a veteran center... Dude is slowly figuring out. I am incredibly impressed by his last performances.

he needs time to figure out everything. he's a rookie that has already missed key development years. i was reading about this a couple days ago.
Ayton came somewhat late to the game, first really surfacing in the States at the 2013 Pangos All-American Camp as a 14-year-old. At Phoenix's Hillcrest Prep, becoming a defensive anchor wasn't a priority and he had total freedom to roam.

• While a standout on the Nike EYBL circuit, Ayton participated in minimal FIBA competition. He had few opportunities to learn on the fly in meaningful games like fellow bigs Wendell Carter Jr. or Jackson had. Simply put, Ayton -- already missing key development years early on -- wasn't always held accountable or tested on the floor before arriving in Tucson.


the good thing is that ayton is already showing improvements. just give him a year or 2 and watch how good he'll be :o

Read on Twitter

He's improving on defense but improving from horrific to bad. 59% and 1 bpg the last month is terrible.

Doncic is closing the gap quickly now that he's finally playing like the stans thought he was playing the whole year. He seems to have figured out the speed of NBA ball and his turnovers are plummeting recently.

his DFG% at the rim for this month is better than AD, Embiid, Steven Adams, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, Andre Drummond, Jarrett Allen, Clint Capela, Mo Bamba, etc. so his DFG is not that bad when you think about it. i agree that he needs to be blocking more shots though.

Edit: his DFG is actually the same as Drummond. 58.9
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#732 » by Promezclan » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:35 pm

Doncic has been shooting worse, but producing better, by getting to the line much more, and being more of a distributor. Putting up 20, 7 and 6 in 9 games this month in only 31 mpg.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#733 » by E-Balla » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:37 pm

3toheadmelo wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
3toheadmelo wrote:he needs time to figure out everything. he's a rookie that has already missed key development years. i was reading about this a couple days ago.


the good thing is that ayton is already showing improvements. just give him a year or 2 and watch how good he'll be :o

Read on Twitter

He's improving on defense but improving from horrific to bad. 59% and 1 bpg the last month is terrible.

Doncic is closing the gap quickly now that he's finally playing like the stans thought he was playing the whole year. He seems to have figured out the speed of NBA ball and his turnovers are plummeting recently.

his DFG% at the rim for this month is better than AD, Embiid, Steven Adams, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, Andre Drummond, Jarrett Allen, Clint Capela, Mo Bamba, etc. so his DFG is not that bad when you think about it. i agree that he needs to be blocking more shots though.

Edit: his DFG is actually the same as Drummond. 58.9

Drummond is a **** defender that's ranked bottom 5 in defending the rim like 4 straight seasons. He ranked under KAT and Jahlil Okafor during their rookie seasons.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#734 » by 3toheadmelo » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:43 pm

E-Balla wrote:
3toheadmelo wrote:
E-Balla wrote:He's improving on defense but improving from horrific to bad. 59% and 1 bpg the last month is terrible.

Doncic is closing the gap quickly now that he's finally playing like the stans thought he was playing the whole year. He seems to have figured out the speed of NBA ball and his turnovers are plummeting recently.

his DFG% at the rim for this month is better than AD, Embiid, Steven Adams, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, Andre Drummond, Jarrett Allen, Clint Capela, Mo Bamba, etc. so his DFG is not that bad when you think about it. i agree that he needs to be blocking more shots though.

Edit: his DFG is actually the same as Drummond. 58.9

Drummond is a **** defender that's ranked bottom 5 in defending the rim like 4 straight seasons. He ranked under KAT and Jahlil Okafor during their rookie seasons.

well besides Drummond, Ayton is in good company right now
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#735 » by E-Balla » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:48 pm

3toheadmelo wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
3toheadmelo wrote:his DFG% at the rim for this month is better than AD, Embiid, Steven Adams, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, Andre Drummond, Jarrett Allen, Clint Capela, Mo Bamba, etc. so his DFG is not that bad when you think about it. i agree that he needs to be blocking more shots though.

Edit: his DFG is actually the same as Drummond. 58.9

Drummond is a **** defender that's ranked bottom 5 in defending the rim like 4 straight seasons. He ranked under KAT and Jahlil Okafor during their rookie seasons.

well besides Drummond, Ayton is in good company right now

Agreed but imma need to see way more production on that end. We've seen KAT put it together for a month only to regress and Ayton is worse on that end than KAT ever seemed to be that young.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#736 » by 3toheadmelo » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:58 pm

E-Balla wrote:
3toheadmelo wrote:
E-Balla wrote:Drummond is a **** defender that's ranked bottom 5 in defending the rim like 4 straight seasons. He ranked under KAT and Jahlil Okafor during their rookie seasons.

well besides Drummond, Ayton is in good company right now

Agreed but imma need to see way more production on that end. We've seen KAT put it together for a month only to regress and Ayton is worse on that end than KAT ever seemed to be that young.

yeah hopefully he continues to improve. that game Ayton had against KAT was insane tho. dude shut him down in the second half while defending the rim really well. did all of that while playing with 4 fouls too. his defensive potential is huge. I think Igor is gonna turn him into a beast and will be better than KAT when it’s all said and done
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#737 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:28 pm

Wow the passive aggressive nature of the previous page of this thread...... :lol:

It feels too obvious to state it's okay to be happy with your rookie while acknowledging the other guy is playing well too, but it's okay to acknowledge the strengths of the other guy. This isn't a zero sum game where it takes away from your pat cat.
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#738 » by Marcus » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:21 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Wow the passive aggressive nature of the previous page of this thread...... :lol:

It feels too obvious to state it's okay to be happy with your rookie while acknowledging the other guy is playing well too, but it's okay to acknowledge the strengths of the other guy. This isn't a zero sum game where it takes away from your pat cat.


It's the nature of the Rookie Discussion thread. Just wait till next year!!!
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#739 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:28 pm

Marcus wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:Wow the passive aggressive nature of the previous page of this thread...... :lol:

It feels too obvious to state it's okay to be happy with your rookie while acknowledging the other guy is playing well too, but it's okay to acknowledge the strengths of the other guy. This isn't a zero sum game where it takes away from your pat cat.


It's the nature of the Rookie Discussion thread. Just wait till next year!!!


Yeah I've never spent much time in these threads because Luka is the first relevant Dallas rookie since Dirk essentially. I know Devin Harris was a top 5 pick, but he was never a hyped prospect.

In Dallas we consider it a miracle if a 1st round pick is still with the team to get his first team option picked up. And I think the last one might be Free Roddy B. So yeah it's been a minute. :(
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Re: 2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2) 

Post#740 » by BoogieTime » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:30 pm

IamHim wrote:
BoogieTime wrote:
IamHim wrote:I wholly disagree with your likening it to Philly. Bagley has shown he can score at a high rate and rebound the ball well. He also can block some shots. I'm not saying Bagley is the main reason the Kings are doing well but he has been a key contributor. If you dont believe that, go ahead and ask any Kings fan.

Fultz didnt contribute to hardly anything for the 6ers up to this point, other than a massive headache and a s-ton of 2nd guessing.

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No, he hasn’t been
Yeah you look pretty dumb now. What's their record since he went down with injury? How bad are they getting their asses beat on the boards? It's even worse now. Smh. Bagley was most definitely an integral part of how well they were doing. Foolish to think otherwise but the results show just HOW foolish.

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You seem just a baseless homer but do you have knowledge of advanced stats? He’s been a detriment most the season, though recently improving

He wouldn’t have turned either of these latest two around

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