Post#1293 » by mcmurphy » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:52 pm
Some considerations about BPM (rookie players with mpg>23).
Player Age MP TS PER TOV% USG% BPM
Luka Doncic /19 /35.7/0.579 /14.5 /19.5 /25.4 /-2.3
Trae Young /20 /31.5/0.518 /14.6 /14.5 /26.6 /-3.1
Deandre Ayton /20 /31.2/0.667 /24 /8.2 /19.9 /4.5
Shai Gilgeous /20 /26.5/0.592 /13.7 /19.4 /15 /3.4
Jaren Jackson /19 /25/0.540 /18.1 /7.7 /23.2 /2.7
Wendell Carter /19 /23.7/0.480 /12.2 /13.6 /19.1 /-3.2
Collin Sexton /20 /23.5/0.522 /10.8 /14.6 /22.3 /-7.6
Marvin Bagley /19 /23.3/0.578 /18 /18.1 /23.7 /-0.1
The best players based on BPM are:
Ayton
Shai
JJ
Bagley
Doncic
Trae
The most important part of BPM formula is (see BBref glossary):
- g*USG%*TO% + h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%)
so the ADVANCED parameters most important are USG%, TO% and TS%.
IMO to have potential all-star caliber players we must have at least 35mpg, with high USG%, high TS% and possibly low TO rate.
Ayton very low TO%, high TS%, low USG (<20%) => increase 4mpg and USG%, mantaining TO e TS% => BPM+ (possible)
Shai very high TO% , good TS%, very low USG (15%) => increase 8 mpg and USG% and reduce TO => big boost BPM++ (difficult but possible)
JJ very low TO%, average TS% good usage rate (23%) => increase 10mpg mantain adv stats (difficult)
Bagley high TO%, good TS%, good USG% (23.7) => increase 12 mpg (difficult)
Doncic very high TO% , good TS%, very high USG (>25%) => ok mpg only reduce TO% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)
Trae high TO%, low TS%, very high USG (>25%) => +3 mpg only increase TS% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)
update my post after 2 months:
Player Age MP TS PER TOV% USG% BPM
Luka Doncic /19 /32.4/0.561 /17.1 /17.3 /26.6 / +1.8 (-2.3)
Deandre Ayton /20 /30.6/0.614 /20.6 /12.6 /21.2 / +1.4 (+4.5)
Collin Sexton /20 /29.7/0.507 /10.9 /13.7 /25.4 / -6.1 (-7.6)
Trae Young /20 /29.2/0.479 /11.6 /19.5 /28.1 / -5.8 (-3.1)
Shai Gilgeous /20 /27.3/0.566 /13.2 /16.3 /17.6 / +0.2 (+3.4)
Jaren Jackson /19 /25.3/0.592 /18.0 /12.3 /22.4 / +2.2 (+2.7)
Wendell Carter /19 /24.8/0.534 /15.4 /13.8 /20.1 / -0.1 (-3.2)
Marvin Bagley /19 /23.1/0.592 /18.4 /13.4 /22.2 / -1.1 (-0.1)
Doncic:
As I had foreseen it was enough to keep high USG% and good TS% and lowering TOV% to boost BPM (from -2.3 to +1.8)
Ayton:
Increasing the USG% has increasing TOV% and lowering TS% (as expected) ---> BPM boosted down (from +4.5 to +1.4)