Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread VI (Don't Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[DowJones]

Do you guys think we should quarantine New York the way China did Wuhan? I know Cuomo said he would consider that an act of war, but the counter of that is it would slow the spread and save lives.

Actually it would do almost nothing to slow the spread and save lives.

The horse left the barn on any hope of regional containment many weeks ago.

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

[DowJones]

Read on Twitter

Surprise, surprise.

[nikster]

Do you guys think we should quarantine New York the way China did Wuhan? I know Cuomo said he would consider that an act of war, but the counter of that is it would slow the spread and save lives.

Actually it would do almost nothing to slow the spread and save lives.

The horse left the barn on any hope of regional containment many weeks ago.

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

the thing is quarantining new york would do nothing for the rest of the country. A large reason New York is so far ahead in confirmed cases is not the spread of the population but actual testing. Its already in every state in the thousands. they need self isolation, not a quarantine in new york

[DowJones]

Do you guys think we should quarantine New York the way China did Wuhan? I know Cuomo said he would consider that an act of war, but the counter of that is it would slow the spread and save lives.

My Dude, quarantine yourself and your love ones, fk the leadership. TAKE CARE OF YOURS!

Done and done. Do you think the Federal Government should quarantine the entire state of Florida considering how much of a problem Covid 19 is there? It is easily the hardest-hit area in the country.

[LKN]

Do you guys think we should quarantine New York the way China did Wuhan? I know Cuomo said he would consider that an act of war, but the counter of that is it would slow the spread and save lives.

Actually it would do almost nothing to slow the spread and save lives.

The horse left the barn on any hope of regional containment many weeks ago.

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

The action that needs to be taken is everyone sheltering in place while we massively ramp up testing (and think about how to combine that with trace and quarantine). There's really no other solution right now.

There's no point in quarantining any particular region (esp because in many areas, like FL, testing is still so anemic), but in general people who don't need to shouldn't be traveling around.

[DowJones]

Actually it would do almost nothing to slow the spread and save lives.

The horse left the barn on any hope of regional containment many weeks ago.

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

the thing is quarantining new york would do nothing for the rest of the country. A large reason New York is so far ahead in confirmed cases is not the spread of the population but actual testing. Its already in every state in the thousands. they need self isolation, not a quarantine in new york

So do you think this is something that should have been done earlier in the process? At what point would it be acceptable for the lockdown of a city/state the way China locked down Wuhan? It's tough...when is it too early? When is it too late?

[LKN]

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

the thing is quarantining new york would do nothing for the rest of the country. A large reason New York is so far ahead in confirmed cases is not the spread of the population but actual testing. Its already in every state in the thousands. they need self isolation, not a quarantine in new york

So do you think this is something that should have been done earlier in the process? At what point would it be acceptable for the lockdown of a city/state the way China locked down Wuhan? It's tough...when is it too early? When is it too late?

I personally don't think taking lessons from China is all that instructive. IMO, looking at what South Korea is doing is much more useful. They aren't locking down cities?regions - instead they focus on finding outbreaks early and quarantining people before they spread. China is simply able to do things that western and most asian democracies won't do.

In any case what really doomed us was not ramping testing until well into March - you can't really take effective action of any kind without testing. Almost every state has clusters at this point.

I also don't buy China's numbers - I've seen estimates (granted nothing is confirmed) of 40,000+ dead.

[mtron929]

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

the thing is quarantining new york would do nothing for the rest of the country. A large reason New York is so far ahead in confirmed cases is not the spread of the population but actual testing. Its already in every state in the thousands. they need self isolation, not a quarantine in new york

So do you think this is something that should have been done earlier in the process? At what point would it be acceptable for the lockdown of a city/state the way China locked down Wuhan? It's tough...when is it too early? When is it too late?

Not sure about quanrantine, but social distance move should have started at least a month ago. In retrospect, everything that the US is doing right now, if it had done a month ago, would be so much better. This pandemic was clearly one of the biggest issues in pretty much everyone's lifetime and in the beginning of March, the minority of people in the US were correct about being "overly concerned" and majority of people in the US were dead wrong about not taking it seriously.

[nikster]

Read on Twitter

Surprise, surprise.

yup, all you need to do is look at the graph reported case rates. China has a single day massive spike and suddenly almost no positive cases reported

[Dirk]

Italia, update

• Current cases: 80,572 (+2,937)
• Deceased: 13,155 (+727)
• Healed: 16,847 (+1,118)
• Hospitalized in Intensive Care: 4.035 (+12)

Total cases: 110.574 (+4.782, + 4.5%)

34455 tests
13,7% tested positive

[OkcSinceSGA]

Well well. Not that most of us didn't already know this. Sadly a handful of people here wanted to back China and defend how great they handled this compared to us.

Read on Twitter

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[LKN]

Wow - Cuomo just said 80% of people who go on ventilators die

If that continues to be the case it means ventilator shortages are very far from the most important issue.

[mrtease]

Read on Twitter

Surprise, surprise.

At this point, which country ISN'T under reporting the true infection and death rates?

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

Surprise, surprise.

At this point, which country ISN'T under reporting the true infection and death rates?

I wonder this myself. The actions the world is taking does seem a bit extreme for a supposed 1% or maybe less death rate. They must all know something we don't.

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[nikster]

Yeah, this is what people in Florida are telling me about their state as well. I'm not sure I buy it. It is never too late to take action, especially in a spot so bad as New York where you have people leaving the state and going to, ironically enough, places like Floria. To me the real question is whether or not the Federal Government should have that type of power. I think that was what Cuomo meant when he said it would be an act of war and he has a really good point.

the thing is quarantining new york would do nothing for the rest of the country. A large reason New York is so far ahead in confirmed cases is not the spread of the population but actual testing. Its already in every state in the thousands. they need self isolation, not a quarantine in new york

So do you think this is something that should have been done earlier in the process? At what point would it be acceptable for the lockdown of a city/state the way China locked down Wuhan? It's tough...when is it too early? When is it too late?

Hard to say for sure, but in hindsight US should have started self isolation and started the process of shutting down essential as soon as they started detecting positive cases, if not the whole country than at least in every state where it is considered positive. That said i dont think even the medical community as a whole appreciated the whole the gravity that early. As for full single state lockdown, im not so sure how beneficial that would have been even early on, ands different situation. Wuhan was ground zero. The rest of the US is still getting flights from all over the world, so even if new york was completely shut down from day#1 this would still spread throughout the US.

What concerns me is the self isolation measures that should have been started a week or 2 nationwide STILL arent being implemented and this virus still isnt being taken seriously enough in many states. Just Monday Missippi governor still rejected idea of stay at home measures, despite having hundreds of confirmed cases (and looking at the high rate of positives among the tests administered it suggests there is many more undiagnosed cases).

Think this is gonna be a wake up for call for the US. My prediction for the US is that every state will have their hospitals and healthcare system pushed to the brink if not past it. There may have to be discussion of rationing care. I Think US will lead the developed world in deaths, and have among the highest mortality rate (per confirmed case and per total population).

[OkcSinceSGA]

I watched the clip itself and it is actually pretty decent. I agree with you on Fox News, but I will expand it to ALL cable news in the United States. There are 3 major cable news outlets in this country and they are all incredibly biased. About the only person I like on any of then is Neil Cavuto. I have been working from home over the last 3 weeks and his show is usually on when I go to fix myself some lunch and he doesn't try to blame one side or the other for all of America's problems.

Well and it was based on two scientists findings who published it. I linked it, all he had to do was click first tweet and it had a link to the paper. I never realized how much the posters here rely on genetic fallacy until this thread. Everyone just shouts down information if it comes from a source they don't like. Nevermind the actual content. I've posted far more NBC/CNN stuff related to COVID, but nobody cares because it aligns with what most of the forum supports. It's silly. These things don't need to be political and derail the thread. My post is directly related to the outbreak.

clipsfansince98- i completely agree with you. ignore the science and fact and just denounce it bc where it's coming from. huge problem.

I'm just glad a popular news person finally had the balls to go there and shed light on the theory to begin with. That it may not be some crazy conspiracy theory. Other scientists have already spoken out on YouTube and other places about this and were quickly banned/silence.

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[Dirk]

Wow - Cuomo just said 80% of people who go on ventilators die

If that continues to be the case it means ventilator shortages are very far from the most important issue.

Click video
https://youtu.be/pzfgcvdOeks

Click 4:47 from the end. This is the daily press confence that Italian officials have.

They talk about intensive therapy. They are asked "Are hospitals picking between which patients go in intensive therapy?"

Official answers that he never heard from doctors that they had to make those sorts of decisions. This despite media reports on the contrary.

Then another doctor there talks about how long patients stay in intensive care. It's not a day or two. It's two to four weeks.

P.S you'd be surprised to hear that 80% is probably pretty good. For a lack of a better word.

[Je K]

I'm going to attempt to bring a little bit of optimism to this thread. Please let it slide...

On the first of February the U.S had 10 cases. At the end of February the U.S had 20 cases.
On the first of March we had 20 cases. At the end of March the U.S had 163,539 cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Does that mean from February 1st to February 29th a virus that has gotten nearly a million people sick worldwide in less then 150 days decided not to spread in America for an entire month? This virus has been around since November of 2019. It has gone from 1 person to 886,112 KNOWN cases in 150 days. So are we going to believe that the United States only had 10 people effected in the month of February but 200,000 in the month of March? Really? Come on... We weren't even quarantined in February. We just weren't testing for it like we are now.

My point..The Coronavirus has most likely already infected Millions of Millions of people in the United States. It's a virus, a dangerous one sure, but if you just use your common sense you will see that the death rate % is way off and we won't truly know that percentage until this is all over. So don't just look at the numbers they throw at you every day and think we are all doomed. Relax, breath and do the best you can to stay away from your compromised loved ones for a little longer. I'm telling you guys. Seriously, get off these forums for a few days and focus your mind on something else.

I agree that chances are we ALREADY have millions sick. The death rate is super promising. Unfortunately 70% of American's fall into the high risk category, so everyone is worried whether or not they may be in the 1% or less.

The only thing I wonder is... If say the death rate in America ends up being .6%, why lock everything down? Logically I'd think they know something they aren't telling us?



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Because the mortality rate would be much higher if we didn't lock everything down. The mortality rate isn't a set thing, it depends on our response and our health care systems (and many other factors). It doesn't matter what the rate actually is right now because as hospitals get overwhelmed, it shoots up.

[AdagioPace]

Click video
https://youtu.be/pzfgcvdOeks

Click 4:47 from the end. This is the daily press confence that Italian officials have.

They talk about intensive therapy. They are asked "Are hospitals picking between which patients go in intensive therapy?"

Official answers that he never heard from doctors that they had to make those sorts of decisions. This despite media reports on the contrary.

Then another doctor there talks about how long patients stay in intensive care. It's not a day or two. It's two to four weeks.

P.S you'd be surprised to hear that 80% is probably pretty good. For a lack of a better word.

yeah weeks ago there were journalists, or even doctors who flirted with the idea of "having to choose" people based on age or state of health: https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03/10/news/il-medico-rianimatore-e-un-emergenza-e-dobbiamo-scegliere-i-criteri-per-le-cure-in-terapia-intensiva-1.38573916 (in case things had gone south in terms of capacity). I think the intensivist doctor in the link is only describing a scenario.
The increase in ICUs beds and the transfer of patients from north to south (and even abroad) certainly helped avoiding this problematic scenario. Of course, I'm assuming italian hospitals and doctors reported everything to Protezione Civile and to ISS

[Bottomsouth]

They are more interested in being defiant trolls than protecting their citizens. Here in Florida Desantis refuses to make the order all because the economy aka big business told me not to, which is already happening business is getting hit either way so might as well make the call.

What major city within Florida hasn’t had most businesses including government shut down and/or restricted operations?

It's not mandatory state-wide.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/30/coronavirus-stay-home-shelter-in-place-orders-by-state/5092413002/

Florida

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ “Safer at Home’’ order applies to Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach counties, and extends until April 15. Nearly 60% of the state’s cases of coronavirus have been concentrated in those four counties.

Other counties have issued their own orders, and some of the state’s beaches have closed their parking lots to discourage large gatherings. DeSantis has ordered visitors to the state from the New York metro area and Louisiana to self-quarantine for 14 days. The Florida Keys have closed to visitors.

DeSantis has also opposed allowing a cruise ship with sick passengers, Holland America's MS Zaandam, to dock in Fort Lauderdale, saying state health resources should be allocated for its residents, not foreigners. DeSantis instead has proposed sending medical personnel to the Florida-bound ship and diverting it.

So if the major cities were given orders by DeSantis then how are big businesses in his ear influencing him not to give any orders? Doesn’t make sense.