Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[JD225]

Thanks to all those keeping the thread full of informative posts and info. In a population of 300 million you will definitely get terrible interviews from spring breakers. What's more concerning is how little coordinating there is between different levels of government in places like the US, UK and even Australia. I'm from Toronto and laid off from work since Monday and just watching the numbers at home it is pretty clear all countries are unprepared but some are way more unprepared than others.

[Pharmcat]

None of this is surprising though for anyone who has worked with the CDC or even NIH.

Nonsense - testing could have been ramped up 4-6 weeks earlier. The administration just refused to take this seriously. H1N1 testing was ramped up much, much more quickly

I personally know 2 ER docs who have been warning me about this since late January.

We could have been more like SK or Singapore... instead we made the choice to be Italy

Not true, the CDC bungled the tests, it delayed companies scaling it and then the FDA emergency policy was enacted (because of state of emergency) before the problems were resolved which added an extra layer of bureaucracy, which has since been lifted a few weeks ago.

Should have said yes to the who kits

But they didn't, because they don't want the number to be high

[basketballRob]

Before rushing to rip on dumb young people. I'll add that literally every single older person I've spoken with(that's not hyperbole) have all said "it's just the flu and the media is overreacting, this is no big deal". Most recent one was about 3 hours ago.

There are going to be A LOT of dead people in the villages in Florida.

If you know what that is, you know it's all old people

Yea they are gonna get hit hard. It's the Elderly Republic.

I see they opened two drive thru test centers near there. We need some in Orlando

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[Sgt Major]

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[madmaxmedia]

How are we doing compared to Italy? Are we doing better than they were at this point? Worse? The same?

In terms of total cases, we are tracking very similarly on a daily basis if you compare the 2 countries starting on 2/23 in Italy (157 cases at that point), and 3/3 in the USA (158 cases at that point.) Someone posted a chart in one of the older threads (I think II) where the totals were very close and the curves looked almost identical. I believe the curves still match as of March 18th.

If I can find the chart I'll post it here, someone else will probably remember it too. Or just look at the data here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Also, Italy started their lockdown on March 9, if you go forward 10-11 days to our timeline that would mean a lockdown at same point on March 19-20. The populations of Italy and USA are 60.5 and 327 million, respectively, but I 'm not sure how that would actually factor in in the early stages of a virus spreading.

[LKN]

None of this is surprising though for anyone who has worked with the CDC or even NIH.

Nonsense - testing could have been ramped up 4-6 weeks earlier. The administration just refused to take this seriously. H1N1 testing was ramped up much, much more quickly

I personally know 2 ER docs who have been warning me about this since late January.

We could have been more like SK or Singapore... instead we made the choice to be Italy

Not true, the CDC bungled the tests, it delayed companies scaling it and then the FDA emergency policy was enacted (because of state of emergency) before the problems were resolved which added an extra layer of bureaucracy, which has since been lifted a few weeks ago.

So yes, the administration and the people it appointed were and are incompetent.

[zimpy27]

Nonsense - testing could have been ramped up 4-6 weeks earlier. The administration just refused to take this seriously. H1N1 testing was ramped up much, much more quickly

I personally know 2 ER docs who have been warning me about this since late January.

We could have been more like SK or Singapore... instead we made the choice to be Italy

Not true, the CDC bungled the tests, it delayed companies scaling it and then the FDA emergency policy was enacted (because of state of emergency) before the problems were resolved which added an extra layer of bureaucracy, which has since been lifted a few weeks ago.

Should have said yes to the who kits

But they didn't, because they don't want the number to be high

Well usually the US make their own but the CDC messed the bed this time. Looks especially worse because the protocol that works was provided to them. They stuck to the one they made and it failed.

[HotRocks34]

CDC has concluded its report on what has to be (though not named) the Washington state nursing home where 29 or so people have died.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm

Information received from the survey and on-site visits identified factors that likely contributed to the vulnerability of these facilities, including 1) staff members who worked while symptomatic; 2) staff members who worked in more than one facility; 3) inadequate familiarity and adherence to standard, droplet, and contact precautions and eye protection recommendations; 4) challenges to implementing infection control practices including inadequate supplies of PPE and other items (e.g., alcohol-based hand sanitizer) §; 5) delayed recognition of cases because of low index of suspicion, limited testing availability, and difficulty identifying persons with COVID-19 based on signs and symptoms alone.

- People worked while sick around a vulnerable (older, possibly having other conditions) population
- Not enough adherence to cleanliness and disinfection ("Limitations in effective infection control" mentioned in the document)


Guess is lawsuits will be coming, in time. Hopefully other nursing homes can avoid anything like this as we navigate the CVirus crisis.

[OkcSinceSGA]

CDC has concluded its report on what has to be (though not named) the Washington state nursing home where 29 or so people have died.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm

Information received from the survey and on-site visits identified factors that likely contributed to the vulnerability of these facilities, including 1) staff members who worked while symptomatic; 2) staff members who worked in more than one facility; 3) inadequate familiarity and adherence to standard, droplet, and contact precautions and eye protection recommendations; 4) challenges to implementing infection control practices including inadequate supplies of PPE and other items (e.g., alcohol-based hand sanitizer) §; 5) delayed recognition of cases because of low index of suspicion, limited testing availability, and difficulty identifying persons with COVID-19 based on signs and symptoms alone.

- People worked while sick around a vulnerable (older, possibly having other conditions) population
- Not enough adherence to cleanliness and disinfection ("Limitations in effective infection control" mentioned in the document)


Guess is lawsuits will be coming, in time. Hopefully other nursing homes can avoid anything like this as we navigate the CVirus crisis.

This is exactly how dumb 21 year old's who don't wanna miss spring break will kill granny.

[BladeDaywalker]

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[steger_3434]

How are we doing compared to Italy? Are we doing better than they were at this point? Worse? The same?

In terms of total cases, we are tracking very similarly on a daily basis if you compare the 2 countries starting on 2/23 in Italy (157 cases at that point), and 3/3 in the USA (158 cases at that point.) Someone posted a chart in one of the older threads (I think II) where the totals were very close and the curves looked almost identical. I believe the curves still match as of March 18th.

If I can find the chart I'll post it here, someone else will probably remember it too. Or just look at the data here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Also, Italy started their lockdown on March 9, if you go forward 10-11 days to our timeline that would mean a lockdown at same point on March 19-20. The populations of Italy and USA are 60.5 and 327 million, respectively, but I 'm not sure how that would actually factor in in the early stages of a virus spreading.

We have 6 times the population though so isn’t it good that total cases are similar?


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[basketballRob]

CDC has concluded its report on what has to be (though not named) the Washington state nursing home where 29 or so people have died.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm

Information received from the survey and on-site visits identified factors that likely contributed to the vulnerability of these facilities, including 1) staff members who worked while symptomatic; 2) staff members who worked in more than one facility; 3) inadequate familiarity and adherence to standard, droplet, and contact precautions and eye protection recommendations; 4) challenges to implementing infection control practices including inadequate supplies of PPE and other items (e.g., alcohol-based hand sanitizer) §; 5) delayed recognition of cases because of low index of suspicion, limited testing availability, and difficulty identifying persons with COVID-19 based on signs and symptoms alone.

- People worked while sick around a vulnerable (older, possibly having other conditions) population
- Not enough adherence to cleanliness and disinfection ("Limitations in effective infection control" mentioned in the document)


Guess is lawsuits will be coming, in time. Hopefully other nursing homes can avoid anything like this as we navigate the CVirus crisis.

You can have coronavirus for 14 day before you show symptoms. Not sure how they can say they knew.

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[BladeDaywalker]

Also, Lou Dobbs at Fox News is currently mad at the CDC because it studies Gun Violence and promote safe sex which he see as part of a leftist ideology

Donald Trump take advice from this man and he is a major player at Fox News with a sizeable audience that believe in his every words

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[basketballRob]

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Some people will be held accountable when this is over. If they were grossly negligible, they might get prison time.

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[Richfield]

CDC has concluded its report on what has to be (though not named) the Washington state nursing home where 29 or so people have died.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm

Information received from the survey and on-site visits identified factors that likely contributed to the vulnerability of these facilities, including 1) staff members who worked while symptomatic; 2) staff members who worked in more than one facility; 3) inadequate familiarity and adherence to standard, droplet, and contact precautions and eye protection recommendations; 4) challenges to implementing infection control practices including inadequate supplies of PPE and other items (e.g., alcohol-based hand sanitizer) §; 5) delayed recognition of cases because of low index of suspicion, limited testing availability, and difficulty identifying persons with COVID-19 based on signs and symptoms alone.

- People worked while sick around a vulnerable (older, possibly having other conditions) population
- Not enough adherence to cleanliness and disinfection ("Limitations in effective infection control" mentioned in the document)


Guess is lawsuits will be coming, in time. Hopefully other nursing homes can avoid anything like this as we navigate the CVirus crisis.

You can have coronavirus for 14 day before you show symptoms. Not sure how they can say they knew.

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Just read #1). And #5). It's right there in front of you.

[OkcSinceSGA]

How are we doing compared to Italy? Are we doing better than they were at this point? Worse? The same?

In terms of total cases, we are tracking very similarly on a daily basis if you compare the 2 countries starting on 2/23 in Italy (157 cases at that point), and 3/3 in the USA (158 cases at that point.) Someone posted a chart in one of the older threads (I think II) where the totals were very close and the curves looked almost identical. I believe the curves still match as of March 18th.

If I can find the chart I'll post it here, someone else will probably remember it too. Or just look at the data here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Also, Italy started their lockdown on March 9, if you go forward 10-11 days to our timeline that would mean a lockdown at same point on March 19-20. The populations of Italy and USA are 60.5 and 327 million, respectively, but I 'm not sure how that would actually factor in in the early stages of a virus spreading.

We have 6 times the population though so isn’t it good that total cases are similar?


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Our average age in America is 38. About 10 years less than theirs. So that would explain why percentage wise, we are being hit on a smaller scale for deaths. A lot of it though is... we have done almost no tests compared to Italy. Our real cases are at least 10-15x higher than what's being reported most likely. You have states like NY doubling in 2 days.

[HotRocks34]

"GM, Ford studying how to make ventilators to fight COVID-19"
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2020/03/18/gm-ford-studying-how-make-ventilators-fight-covid-19/2871290001/


Would be huge if they can help on this.

At least two of Detroit's three automakers are studying the feasibility of producing vital medical equipment, such as ventilators, as the nation tries to combat the coronavirus pandemic, echoing the industry's conversion to building tanks, trucks and planes during World War II.

After announcing they both will temporarily suspend production amid coronavirus concerns, General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. confirmed Wednesday that they have been in contact with governments in the United States and United Kingdom about evaluating ways to produce the ventilators experts say doctors are expected to need to treat seriously ill coronavirus patients.

[DirtyDez]

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[ken6199]

It's not just NY had 3000+ new cases today, I am also seeing a 23% positive rate and that's crazy.

WA 7.2%
CA 5.7%
NY 23.6%
FL 9.2%
MA 12.4%
CO 13.2% (why so high?)

[LKN]

It's not just NY had 3000+ new cases today, I am also seeing a 23% positive rate and that's crazy.

WA 7.2%
CA 5.7%
NY 23.6%
FL 9.2%
MA 12.4%
CO 13.2% (why so high?)

Yep - that means they are still mostly testing symptomatic people - which is very bad. Still not nearly enough testing.

We literally have no choice but to all pretty much shelter in place as much as possible.