Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread VI (Don't Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[Childs]

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[OkcSinceSGA]

I'm going to attempt to bring a little bit of optimism to this thread. Please let it slide...

On the first of February the U.S had 10 cases. At the end of February the U.S had 20 cases.
On the first of March we had 20 cases. At the end of March the U.S had 163,539 cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Does that mean from February 1st to February 29th a virus that has gotten nearly a million people sick worldwide in less then 150 days decided not to spread in America for an entire month? This virus has been around since November of 2019. It has gone from 1 person to 886,112 KNOWN cases in 150 days. So are we going to believe that the United States only had 10 people effected in the month of February but 200,000 in the month of March? Really? Come on... We weren't even quarantined in February. We just weren't testing for it like we are now.

My point..The Coronavirus has most likely already infected Millions of Millions of people in the United States. It's a virus, a dangerous one sure, but if you just use your common sense you will see that the death rate % is way off and we won't truly know that percentage until this is all over. So don't just look at the numbers they throw at you every day and think we are all doomed. Relax, breath and do the best you can to stay away from your compromised loved ones for a little longer. I'm telling you guys. Seriously, get off these forums for a few days and focus your mind on something else.

I agree that chances are we ALREADY have millions sick. The death rate is super promising. Unfortunately 70% of American's fall into the high risk category, so everyone is worried whether or not they may be in the 1% or less.

The only thing I wonder is... If say the death rate in America ends up being .6%, why lock everything down? Logically I'd think they know something they aren't telling us?



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Because the mortality rate would be much higher if we didn't lock everything down. The mortality rate isn't a set thing, it depends on our response and our health care systems (and many other factors). It doesn't matter what the rate actually is right now because as hospitals get overwhelmed, it shoots up.

True. It's probably because they know the POTENTIAL of a way higher death rate due to systemic failure if not flattened.

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[OkcSinceSGA]

I'm going to attempt to bring a little bit of optimism to this thread. Please let it slide...

On the first of February the U.S had 10 cases. At the end of February the U.S had 20 cases.
On the first of March we had 20 cases. At the end of March the U.S had 163,539 cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Does that mean from February 1st to February 29th a virus that has gotten nearly a million people sick worldwide in less then 150 days decided not to spread in America for an entire month? This virus has been around since November of 2019. It has gone from 1 person to 886,112 KNOWN cases in 150 days. So are we going to believe that the United States only had 10 people effected in the month of February but 200,000 in the month of March? Really? Come on... We weren't even quarantined in February. We just weren't testing for it like we are now.

My point..The Coronavirus has most likely already infected Millions of Millions of people in the United States. It's a virus, a dangerous one sure, but if you just use your common sense you will see that the death rate % is way off and we won't truly know that percentage until this is all over. So don't just look at the numbers they throw at you every day and think we are all doomed. Relax, breath and do the best you can to stay away from your compromised loved ones for a little longer. I'm telling you guys. Seriously, get off these forums for a few days and focus your mind on something else.

I agree that chances are we ALREADY have millions sick. The death rate is super promising. Unfortunately 70% of American's fall into the high risk category, so everyone is worried whether or not they may be in the 1% or less.

The only thing I wonder is... If say the death rate in America ends up being .6%, why lock everything down? Logically I'd think they know something they aren't telling us?



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Have you ever multiplied 0.006 by 100 million?

I'm not referring to that. I've been one of the defenders of exponential math regarding COVID here. I'm more saying we didn't see this response with H1N1 or SARS (which never got to America if I recall). So with such low death rate, I'm surprised they'd shut everything down UNLESS they forsee this getting way worse (they probably do).

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[Optimus_Steel]

What major city within Florida hasn’t had most businesses including government shut down and/or restricted operations?

It's not mandatory state-wide.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/30/coronavirus-stay-home-shelter-in-place-orders-by-state/5092413002/

Florida

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ “Safer at Home’’ order applies to Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach counties, and extends until April 15. Nearly 60% of the state’s cases of coronavirus have been concentrated in those four counties.

Other counties have issued their own orders, and some of the state’s beaches have closed their parking lots to discourage large gatherings. DeSantis has ordered visitors to the state from the New York metro area and Louisiana to self-quarantine for 14 days. The Florida Keys have closed to visitors.

DeSantis has also opposed allowing a cruise ship with sick passengers, Holland America's MS Zaandam, to dock in Fort Lauderdale, saying state health resources should be allocated for its residents, not foreigners. DeSantis instead has proposed sending medical personnel to the Florida-bound ship and diverting it.

So if the major cities were given orders by DeSantis then how are big businesses in his ear influencing him not to give any orders? Doesn’t make sense.

That's because the cities were doing the orders on their own as the governor refused to act, not because Desantis told them to. For example this article below is from March 27 talking about South Florida cities doing their own orders. Days later he did finally do a South FL order but days after cities did their own orders. Now as we speak he finally relented and did the same state wide, also he kept talking about the economy as a reason why he didn't want to.

In Orlando the local government had made their own order last week.

So far, Gov. Ron DeSantis has not issued a statewide stay-at-home order, so some counties and cities are doing it on their own.

In other areas:

Miami-Dade County issued a similar order at 4 p.m. Thursday that took effect immediately.

Palm Beach County so far has not issued a stay-at-home order.

Boca Raton issued a “stay home, stay safe” order to start at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. The measure advises people to stay home unless they are exercising outdoors or making essential trips, including to grocery stores, pharmacies, banks and gas stations.

Delray Beach and Boynton Beach have not issued stay-at-home orders.

Other cities with stay-at-home orders include Aventura, Bal Harbour Village, Coral Gables, Golden Beach, Miami and Miami Beach.

Some cities are also enforcing curfews.

In Coconut Creek and Hallandale Beach, residents are under a curfew from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m.

Miami residents are under a 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew starting on Friday night. Key Biscayne and North Miami Beach have the same curfew.

Miami Beach residents are under a curfew from midnight to 5 a.m.

The town of Palm Beach has a curfew between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m.

The rules can vary, so check with your city or county for more details about their curfews and stay-at-home orders.

In Fort Lauderdale, Mayor Trantalis called the stay-at-home mandate critical.

“We are at a tipping point in the fight against this deadly and contagious virus," he said. "Now is the time to stay at home. If we do not do so, the virus could spread rapidly through our community and overwhelm our hospitals. Without concerted action, people are at risk and lives at stake.”

People will still be able to leave their homes to buy food, head to essential jobs and make other necessary trips. They can also venture outside to exercise as long as they adhere to social distancing guidelines and don’t gather in groups of more than 10.

“There’s a lot of confusion out there,” Fort Lauderdale Commissioner Ben Sorensen said. “We have the county order. We have the governor issuing decrees. We appreciate what the county did. But we feel like we need to take it a step further. I think it’s important to do more than a suggestion.

Will Fort Lauderdale police stop people on the streets?

“The police are not interested in confrontation,” Trantalis said. “We are simply interested in compliance and enforcement. But the police need the tools to enforce the rules we are about to put in place.”

Trantalis says a longtime friend has the virus and is now in the hospital battling for his life.

“A good friend of mine is in ICU now,” Trantalis said. “He’s in his 60s. And he’s probably going to die. Doctors say he has a 5 percent chance. It’s really hitting home now.”

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-fort-lauderdale-stay-home-order-20200327-cbihlf6povg4fnmsw6qecwtwci-story.html

[TheNetsFan]

Do you guys think we should quarantine New York the way China did Wuhan? I know Cuomo said he would consider that an act of war, but the counter of that is it would slow the spread and save lives.

Actually it would do almost nothing to slow the spread and save lives.

The horse left the barn on any hope of regional containment many weeks ago.

I think geographic travel restrictions need to be put in place. Shut down mass transit. Shut down the bridges and tunnels with the exception of supply deliveries. NYC is so densely populated, that the virus will inevitably have to just run it's course. The progression can only be slowed to ease hospital burden. However, we should do everything possible to prevent the spread into other regions. I think that the slow down and drop in cases will happen from the outside (rural areas) in (urban areas). Social distancing will be far more effective in areas where it's hundred or even thousands of people per square mile instead of millions.

Preventing crossing at the East, Hudson & Delaware rivers, and shutting down area airports & mass transit is the best way to protect neighboring areas.

[LKN]

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[ken6199]

Oh boy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-louisiana-life-tabernacle-church-packed-services-again-charges-against-pastor-tony-spell/

"We are needy people. Our souls are lost," he said. "We need help, and the church is the salvation center of the soul, the sanctuary where we come together and meet."

"We have a constitutional right to congregate," Spell said in an email on Monday. "We will continue."

"The virus, we believe, is politically motivated," Spell told WAFB. "We hold our religious rights dear and we are going to assemble no matter what someone says."

"We're still here and still assembling and having church," Spell said. Asked why he was defying the governor's orders, he said, "Because the Lord told us to."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/louisiana-pastor-arrest-tony-spell/index.html

On Tuesday police in suburban Baton Rouge, Louisiana, issued Pastor Tony Spell of Life Tabernacle Church a misdemeanor summons for six counts of violating the governor's executive order barring large gatherings.

[ken6199]

Have you ever multiplied 0.006 by 100 million?

I'm not referring to that. I've been one of the defenders of exponential math regarding COVID here. I'm more saying we didn't see this response with H1N1 or SARS (which never got to America if I recall). So with such low death rate, I'm surprised they'd shut everything down UNLESS they forsee this getting way worse (they probably do).

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H1N1 had a vastly lower death rate (and hospitalization rate).

IIRC SARS was much less contagious.


The big problems with COVID-19 are the contagiousness, hospitalization rate and death rate.

I've seen areas where 20% of all identified cases are hospitalized. The real danger of COVID-19 is that it can wipe out your hospital capacity in a few weeks if left unchecked.

I am thinking about the difference between birdshot and slug. If H1N1 is slug/buck, then COVID is birdshot - yeah yeah yea flu kills more people but you have a much higher chance to get hit by a birdshot and if you are unlucky (or old or immune compromised), you will still die painfully. If you fire a birdshot at a group of people, that whole group get sent to the hospital which won't have enough resource to treat everyone in an hour. Someone will have to wait in line to have their names to be called, while in pain.

[Dirk]

This topic isn't meant to kill brain cells.

Two points.

One.

The origin of the virus can be freely discussed on the OT section. Open a new topic on it. In this topic, unless you have a relevant update from a reputable source, there is no point bringing it up.

It is not a question of being sceptical or denying the possibility. It is a question of good sense --- the origin of the virus does not change what we are experience & given that no one here has enough info on it, it just clutters the topic with non productive discussion.

Pretty much every developed country is in lockdown. Killing their economies. They have brilliant scientists. Just maybe... trust that if the virus was engineered, they'll figure it out. I suppose. Either way, they won't be reading this topic for info. So drop it.

This also applies to the seriousness of the virus --- if you can't trust that these countries wouldn't be killing their economies if they didn't think they had a better option, then you probably should not post in this topic (remember, a random topic on the basketball GB, you are not changing the world here). There are people who seriously act like some random users on the internet are to blame for overreacting (and a small minority objectively overreact) just because they post on a topic.

Which brings me to...

Two.

Users who have been suspended, warned over the course of these topics and are well known for having attempted to ridicule and mock others as they just called this virus "another flu". There is a forum history. Your posts exist.

You cannot go weeks thinking you're so smart, ridiculing everyone, only to be ridiculed yourself by reality... and then pivot to talk about "this topic is rooting for the virus" or some other form.

Just leave the topic alone. Ignore it. It is not that hard to do.

If the posts above about the bat virus created in the lab aren't weren't moved out (kind of like Xi Jinping did with the whistleblowers), what happens is that some other user will pick up on them and then here we go... with another exchange that doesn't really enrich us.

This is not practical to do. And it's deflating to have to do it... please just ignore the topic if you can't just share your opinions on what is actually going down around your area, the world, etc. The spirit of the topic is fairly clear at this point. Accept it or don't post. There is an entire OT section where you can discuss anything. Use that part of the forum for the micro discussions about the origin of the virus, the people overreacting, the panic killing people, letting the old die... anything.

[lakerz12]

I agree that chances are we ALREADY have millions sick. The death rate is super promising. Unfortunately 70% of American's fall into the high risk category, so everyone is worried whether or not they may be in the 1% or less.

The only thing I wonder is... If say the death rate in America ends up being .6%, why lock everything down? Logically I'd think they know something they aren't telling us?



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Because the mortality rate would be much higher if we didn't lock everything down. The mortality rate isn't a set thing, it depends on our response and our health care systems (and many other factors). It doesn't matter what the rate actually is right now because as hospitals get overwhelmed, it shoots up.

True. It's probably because they know the POTENTIAL of a way higher death rate due to systemic failure if not flattened.

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Yeah it's because all of this is unknown. No one knows the mortality rate. Even the biggest "experts" are just trying to draw conclusions with the data they currently have, admitting they don't have all of the data. It's a fluid situation.

The lock down is precautionary because we know there is a high likelihood that we slow the spread of the virus by doing the lockdown, etc. It's the safest/best course of action based on what we currently know.

However, in hindsight things could look different.

It's like trying to time a stock trade. You don't know for sure when it's going to bottom out or when it's going to explode. You're just making educated guesses. And I mean that analogy also in terms of at what point does a lockdown tank our whole economy? Should we risk economic collapse by locking down for months? These are more questions no one really knows the exact timeline or answers to.

This is uncharted territory. Like a storm at sea. Even the best captains don't control the storm. They just have to try to navigate it as best they can and try to keep the ship intact.

[G R E Y]

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[basketballRob]

Let's be clear here. IMO the virus has been here since December and was in all likelihood treated as a seasonal flu. IMO the hospitals were not warned by leadership of what the intelligence community had already discovered and advised. To add, the leadership was more concerned with the stock market and political fallout than heeding critical intel and despicably delayed action.

TWO months later we started talking about this in earnest!! What's crazy is that southern states are STILL not under mandatory quarantine.

They are more interested in being defiant trolls than protecting their citizens. Here in Florida Desantis refuses to make the order all because the economy aka big business told me not to, which is already happening business is getting hit either way so might as well make the call.

What major city within Florida hasn’t had most businesses including government shut down and/or restricted operations?

Pretty sure Jacksonville and Tampa. Orlando shutdown early because Val demmings husband is mayor of orange county

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[zimpy27]

Seems like either no country wants to be the first to report over 1000 deaths in a single day or the daily death total in any one country seems to max out before 1000.

USA should push through this number soon, if they don't then my suspicions will be roused.

[alebaba]

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Surprise, surprise.

You think America is not doing the same.... Our numbers is going to be way higher, their quarantine was a real lock down not like the U.S.

[DowJones]

Well well. Not that most of us didn't already know this. Sadly a handful of people here wanted to back China and defend how great they handled this compared to us.

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I don't know why China gets so much support by some. I get why certain sections of the media back China despite the fact that they have handled this poorly from the start. This report by Bloomberg is no surprise and I think we will be shocked at how poorly they handled things as more information comes out.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Seems like either no country wants to be the first to report over 1000 deaths in a single day or the daily death total in any one country seems to max out before 1000.

USA should push through this number soon, if they don't then my suspicions will be roused.

We most likely go over by the end of the day, we were at 463 at noon.

[nikster]

I agree that chances are we ALREADY have millions sick. The death rate is super promising. Unfortunately 70% of American's fall into the high risk category, so everyone is worried whether or not they may be in the 1% or less.

The only thing I wonder is... If say the death rate in America ends up being .6%, why lock everything down? Logically I'd think they know something they aren't telling us?



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Have you ever multiplied 0.006 by 100 million?

I'm not referring to that. I've been one of the defenders of exponential math regarding COVID here. I'm more saying we didn't see this response with H1N1 or SARS (which never got to America if I recall). So with such low death rate, I'm surprised they'd shut everything down UNLESS they forsee this getting way worse (they probably do).

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You remember SARS killed like 7 thousand people world wide right? H1n1 was another 18 000. This coronavirus has just started and its killed double that already. US Government report for Best case scenario (i.e. with social isolation enacted) for USA alone is 100-200 thousand dead. Without social isolation it could surpass one million dead. New York is already rationing PPE and streching healthcare workers thin and they are like 2 weeks away from their predicted peak.

We didnt see this response with H1N1 or SARS because this coronavirus is wayyyyy worse. This has the potential to overwhelm every hospital in the US (or worldwide)

[DowJones]

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Surprise, surprise.

You think America is not doing the same.... Our numbers is going to be way higher, their quarantine was a real lock down not like the U.S.

Facts matter. Stop spreading disinformation.

[Driguez]

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About time

[madmaxmedia]

I don't know how much definite data exists anywhere for death rate because we'd need more widespread testing to know how many asymptomatic carriers are out there. There are probably ways to infer total infection rate in a population, but that's an educated guess.

Ideally we would know so much more. For example I have read obesity and diabetes are risk factors, but we haven't quantified any of these things (knowing hospitalization rate is just as important as knowing death rate, as death rate increases without proper medical care.)

10.2% of the US population is diagnosed diabetic, with another estimated 7% undiagnosed. An estimated 39.8% of adults over 20 in the US are obese (with fair overlap with diabetes.) So if you're say a healthy but obese 55-year old, what is the hospitalization rate for people in that category? What is the death rate assuming sufficient medical care? What is the death rate if you don't receive proper care? Etc.