NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[Bob8]

Whatever that means.

This is a two horse race between Jokic and SGA, with Giannis and Tatum a good ways back and then a whole group of other guys after that.

Vegas doesn't agree with you.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

So are you putting your money on Luka?

At + 700? No. But I would have for sure put some money on him, if he was + 6.000 like Tatum.

[Homerclease]

Vegas doesn't agree with you.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

So are you putting your money on Luka?

At + 700? No. But I would have for sure put some money on him, if he was + 6.000 like Tatum.

So you don’t think Luka is an MVP candidate either then. At least we agree on something

[Bob8]

So are you putting your money on Luka?

At + 700? No. But I would have for sure put some money on him, if he was + 6.000 like Tatum.

So you don’t think Luka is an MVP candidate either then. At least we agree on something

I don't believe that Mavs will finish top 4, which would be minimum for him to win. Celtics will be first easily and Tatum will be 5th at best, which tell you everything about his individual abilities.

[Special_Puppy]

At + 700? No. But I would have for sure put some money on him, if he was + 6.000 like Tatum.

So you don’t think Luka is an MVP candidate either then. At least we agree on something

I don't believe that Mavs will finish top 4, which would be minimum for him to win. Celtics will be first easily and Tatum will be 5th at best, which tell you everything about his individual abilities.

Mavericks might need to win like 53 games in order for Luka to win MVP

[CobraCommander]

lol at "too many" and there is no concensus if you use one blog... Majority sites have Luka ahead of Giannis most of the season including now, not particularly after a Feb when Bucks went 5w-5l whereas Mavs were 7w-2l. I am ok with him above luka actually but you have been always campaigning him above SGA, which has no reasonable base whatso ever.

At this point I think it’s honestly Jokic and then you can bundle Luka Giannis and SGA into a group -

Then the field -

Who ever does something amazing over the next 18-20 games will come in SECOND

Jokic deserves to be a 3 time mvp champion- it would be a shame if he didn’t get considering the historic run he is on. Jokic needs to be considered with Shaq, Hakeem,KAJ,Timmy, Russ and Wilt as the best bigs ever -

What you listed, Shaq 1, Hakeem 1, Timmy 2, let's not go to much earlier when there were less teams and overall talents... I agree he deserves three or might have been mistreated last year, but it does not mean SGA should be deprived of his fair evaluation. Nuggets are about the same as last year while OKC are A LOT better from playin to leading the west. They have won 41 games by now whereas had 40 wins last year. SGAs adv stats are there with Jokic's. There have to be some consistent standards. You can say Luka/Giannis are close, but SGA is clear up there with Jokic right now.

I won’t argue against that - it’s just Jokic is about to enter the pantheon with the top ten - 15 guys all time and is the reigning champ.

To be the champ you should have to dethrone them imo - you can’t equal them… so I need sga to show unequivocably that he has a better year than Jokic - not marginally- but go get it-

Honestly SGA might not even know he in the running. He probably cause Kawhi for advice and they say hello and their it’s 20 minutes of breathing and then the hang up - both being satisfied that they learned something about the game

[CobraCommander]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-usage-rate-leaders-2024

He should have better stats, leads the league in usage, too bad it doesn’t translate to wins. Otherwise he’d have a case to be more valuable. He’s also strictly a one way player, which is also a reason his stats don’t translate to wins.

So you think that scoring a lot more and being more efficient is easier with bigger usage?

You don't think that better teammates help with winning? If not, why players in the best teams have very similar +/-.?

I think if Luka was as valuable as you seem to think, the Mavs would win more games and you would make less excuses for why Lukas teams lose

People hate to hear this - but Luka been in the league too long and is too damn good to not be judged by winning games. Putting up stats on a bad team isn’t impressive as it used to be. You can be a great individual player with all the skills and also not a winner. Jokic and Giannis have done both and leaned to win big - curry and lBJ did too- we don’t see KD on their all time level cause he never did it without curry.

Some fans on real gm hate this but Luka has to generate reg season wins or he just isn’t as valuable to some people as a Tatum who is winning.

Don’t blame me for stating the obvious- but winning matters

[dygaction]

At this point I think it’s honestly Jokic and then you can bundle Luka Giannis and SGA into a group -

Then the field -

Who ever does something amazing over the next 18-20 games will come in SECOND

Jokic deserves to be a 3 time mvp champion- it would be a shame if he didn’t get considering the historic run he is on. Jokic needs to be considered with Shaq, Hakeem,KAJ,Timmy, Russ and Wilt as the best bigs ever -

What you listed, Shaq 1, Hakeem 1, Timmy 2, let's not go to much earlier when there were less teams and overall talents... I agree he deserves three or might have been mistreated last year, but it does not mean SGA should be deprived of his fair evaluation. Nuggets are about the same as last year while OKC are A LOT better from playin to leading the west. They have won 41 games by now whereas had 40 wins last year. SGAs adv stats are there with Jokic's. There have to be some consistent standards. You can say Luka/Giannis are close, but SGA is clear up there with Jokic right now.

I won’t argue against that - it’s just Jokic is about to enter the pantheon with the top ten - 15 guys all time and is the reigning champ.

To be the champ you should have to dethrone them imo - you can’t equal them… so I need sga to show unequivocably that he has a better year than Jokic - not marginally- but go get it-

Honestly SGA might not even know he in the running. He probably cause Kawhi for advice and they say hello and their it’s 20 minutes of breathing and then the hang up - both being satisfied that they learned something about the game

So now your stance is changing from Jokic is clear ahead to SGA needs to unequivocably better than Jokic? Not sure anyone in history can claim that. The nba always try to get something new, exciting, and relatable

[Doctor MJ]

an update for @DoctorMJ

Luka's last 10 games: +17, +6, +18, +18, +19, +25, +9, -13, +13, +11
the only negative game was -13 vs Indy in a 20 pt loss

most of these games are since the deadline trades and all with Kyrie

Huh, who would have thunk it?

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Oh, I didn't suggest he's biased whatsoever, I'm merely following up
obviously it's a small sample but I predicted this would happen and suggested it as a method to test the two differing models, so far so good

edit: small sample for sure, but let's say for agument's sake that this trend continues - don't u think that's a "gotcha" moment?
Luka has never played alongside an actual NBA level roster, until the deadline, 6+ seasons of data all from such flawed rosters, and for those 6+ seasons he has failed to impress in +-, def not MVP caliber +-, but the minute he gets an actual NBA level roster, with a healthy co-star and NBA level players at every position (on the bench as well),suddenly his +- "normalizes" to fit the eye test?
that's a heck of a coincidence

but yes, the sample is def way too small we'll see if this trend continues up to the end of the season

i'll keep following up

So, I appreciate you recognize it's small sample. As always, more will be revealed with time.

I will say that when you suggest that Luka recording high raw +/- with this set of teammates is something I said would not happen, I didn't say any such thing. To be clear: What we'll be looking for in this line of stats are more nuanced (on/off, regression, etc) stats showing a very new trend. This probably happens if Luka keeps recording +/- numbers like this, but it's not the actual stat we'd be looking for for evidence.

Re: "Luka has never played alongside an actual NBA level roster". Okay, so this is the thing you and so many others are just deluded about. It makes no sense to claim this when we see the quantity of Off +/- data we have for Luka over his career. The reality is that Luka just didn't have an extremely low quality of help around him. You're just saying this because you're trying to blame Luka's context for the fact that he wasn't having great team success, but it's objectively not true.

And to be clear: Does that contradict the idea that with the right set of teammates Luka could lead an elite contender? No.

Final thing here: I believe what we're really circling around here is the concept of team fit around a star. When you surround a star with a scheme and supporting cast with the right balance of skills, you can dramatically improve is impact. I'm not trying to insist the talent level of his teammates is staying the same, but if we see great success now - as we see in the case of a true home run of a acquisition - I think we'll be analyzing the success of the fit a great deal.

[CobraCommander]

What you listed, Shaq 1, Hakeem 1, Timmy 2, let's not go to much earlier when there were less teams and overall talents... I agree he deserves three or might have been mistreated last year, but it does not mean SGA should be deprived of his fair evaluation. Nuggets are about the same as last year while OKC are A LOT better from playin to leading the west. They have won 41 games by now whereas had 40 wins last year. SGAs adv stats are there with Jokic's. There have to be some consistent standards. You can say Luka/Giannis are close, but SGA is clear up there with Jokic right now.

I won’t argue against that - it’s just Jokic is about to enter the pantheon with the top ten - 15 guys all time and is the reigning champ.

To be the champ you should have to dethrone them imo - you can’t equal them… so I need sga to show unequivocably that he has a better year than Jokic - not marginally- but go get it-

Honestly SGA might not even know he in the running. He probably cause Kawhi for advice and they say hello and their it’s 20 minutes of breathing and then the hang up - both being satisfied that they learned something about the game

So now your stance is changing from Jokic is clear ahead to SGA needs to unequivocably better than Jokic? Not sure anyone in history can claim that. The nba always try to get something new, exciting, and relatable

You watching tonight- jokic is a god - I’m just saying that I don’t see anyone better than him even SGA - and for me - to beat this guy you gotta show me more

[dygaction]

I won’t argue against that - it’s just Jokic is about to enter the pantheon with the top ten - 15 guys all time and is the reigning champ.

To be the champ you should have to dethrone them imo - you can’t equal them… so I need sga to show unequivocably that he has a better year than Jokic - not marginally- but go get it-

Honestly SGA might not even know he in the running. He probably cause Kawhi for advice and they say hello and their it’s 20 minutes of breathing and then the hang up - both being satisfied that they learned something about the game

So now your stance is changing from Jokic is clear ahead to SGA needs to unequivocably better than Jokic? Not sure anyone in history can claim that. The nba always try to get something new, exciting, and relatable

You watching tonight- jokic is a god - I’m just saying that I don’t see anyone better than him even SGA - and for me - to beat this guy you gotta show me more

I hope we were watching the same game... There are nights you can rave hard, but is 18/11/7a/4to night shooting 6/15 and 0/3 3s you want to claim "jokic is a god -"? That's half simping

[LeBronSpaghetti]

I thought Jokic was awful tonight. Probably about as bad as you’ll ever see him play offensively. Still had 18/11/7

[Woodsanity]

Yea pretty mid game by him tonight but to be fair he had no Murray and I think the Heat got away with fouling him a few times not surprisingly.

More importantly he got the W tonight and SGA did not.

[Exp0sed]

i'll keep following up

So, I appreciate you recognize it's small sample. As always, more will be revealed with time.

I will say that when you suggest that Luka recording high raw +/- with this set of teammates is something I said would not happen, I didn't say any such thing.

And to be clear: Does that contradict the idea that with the right set of teammates Luka could lead an elite contender? No.

Final thing here: I believe what we're really circling around here is the concept of team fit around a star. When you surround a star with a scheme and supporting cast with the right balance of skills, you can dramatically improve is impact. I'm not trying to insist the talent level of his teammates is staying the same, but if we see great success now - as we see in the case of a true home run of a acquisition - I think we'll be analyzing the success of the fit a great deal.

perhaps you didn't say it but it was implied from your argument. you argued that the huge (and consistent) dataset for Luka's career, across different seasons, rosters and even coaches all point to a middlling +- is a testament to him not being an actual MVP caliber player. that means this effect is due to Luka's own game - not to his teammates or his coach's rotations.

thus a minor move, replacing one starter and one bench player should not have a significant effect on Luka's +-

am i undesrstanding u wrong?

as for the latter part, ur basically arguing that if this trend continues we'll be "analyszing the success of the fit"
if "fit" can be such a dramatic game changer in terms of individual raw +-, then individual raw +- (at least in some cases) can a very problematic and sometimes even misleading tool, in analyzing said player's impact on winning

[Exp0sed]

I thought Jokic was awful tonight. Probably about as bad as you’ll ever see him play offensively. Still had 18/11/7

"awful" is a wild exaggeration, dude had almost a triple double with a team high +12

rewatch the game and count how many (great) screens Jokic set in the game (then compare it with other star players haha)
watch him directing both the offense and Denver's defense to their spots, calling out opponent's sets etc - Jokic impacts the game in so many ways, even on rare nights like this on a b2b when his shot's not falling

he had a pretty bad game by his standards, missed most of his jumpers and wasn't playing particularly well in general but his impact was still huge. dude just does so many things on the basketball court on literally every play

11 rebs, 7 assists a clutch basket + clutch free throws, a steal and two blocks + the refs missed a couple fouls for sure

Jokic and SGA have both been very consistent in +- showing a clear seperation even from guys they share plenty of mins with, Jokic has been doing it for years and tonight was no exception, he was a team high +12 in 6 pts win

was it a good game by his standards? hell no..but it was a very good game nonetheless, even if he clanked more than he usually does and turned it over a bit

back to back, no Murray and the Nuggets had a double digit lead almost throughout. had the Nuggets needed more from him, he would have delievered (just like when they needed that clutch basket), just wasn't needed tonight as Denver's defense at home, was more than enough to contain the shaky Heat's offense and Nuggets were in the driver's seat from the the 9-0 run they started the game with. there were only a couple of possesions wherein the game was actually contested and the winner was in doubt

cruise control

[Doctor MJ]

i'll keep following up

So, I appreciate you recognize it's small sample. As always, more will be revealed with time.

I will say that when you suggest that Luka recording high raw +/- with this set of teammates is something I said would not happen, I didn't say any such thing.

And to be clear: Does that contradict the idea that with the right set of teammates Luka could lead an elite contender? No.

Final thing here: I believe what we're really circling around here is the concept of team fit around a star. When you surround a star with a scheme and supporting cast with the right balance of skills, you can dramatically improve is impact. I'm not trying to insist the talent level of his teammates is staying the same, but if we see great success now - as we see in the case of a true home run of a acquisition - I think we'll be analyzing the success of the fit a great deal.

perhaps you didn't say it but it was implied from your argument. you argued that the huge (and consistent) dataset for Luka's career, across different seasons, rosters and even coaches all point to a middlling +- is a testament to him not being an actual MVP caliber player. that means this effect is due to Luka's own game - not to his teammates or his coach's rotations.

thus a minor move, replacing one starter and one bench player should not have a significant effect on Luka's +-

am i undesrstanding u wrong?

as for the latter part, ur basically arguing that if this trend continues we'll be "analyszing the success of the fit"
if "fit" can be such a dramatic game changer in terms of individual raw +-, then individual raw +- (at least in some cases) can a very problematic and sometimes even misleading tool, in analyzing said player's impact on winning

So, I think I see, in one way, how we're conceptualizing these terms differently. You could say that a simplistic description of how I see the terms in question is this:

Goodness + Fit = Impact ~ Value

So, the idea that fit would dramatically affect +/- based stats isn't a bug, it's a feature to me. Because that's how team sports work.

I feel like you might be stuck on the idea that the MVP is simply the "most good" player. It's fine if that's your own personal choice to use for your MVP preference, but it's not the literal meaning of the award. In a team game, value is depends on fit, and so to try to normalize that away in an MVP conversation is just not something I would do.

[Gatorade Sax]

I thought Jokic was awful tonight. Probably about as bad as you’ll ever see him play offensively. Still had 18/11/7

It’s hilarious and speaks volumes in itself.

He was horrendous tonight.

They won and he nearly had a triple double.

[Infinite Llamas]

Jokic worse games would be top-5 games of the year for like 95% of the league.

[kan_t]

Yea pretty mid game by him tonight but to be fair he had no Murray and I think the Heat got away with fouling him a few times not surprisingly.

More importantly he got the W tonight and SGA did not.

I think at this stage this hurts SGA MVP chance more than a Jokic bad game. Both deserve to win but people are so invested into the Embiid vs Jokic MVP talk that SGA needs to do a lot more in order to change the narrative. He's not going to blow away Jokic on stats so his biggest MVP boost would be OKC standing.

[Exp0sed]

Yea pretty mid game by him tonight but to be fair he had no Murray and I think the Heat got away with fouling him a few times not surprisingly.

More importantly he got the W tonight and SGA did not.

I think at this stage this hurts SGA MVP chance more than a Jokic bad game. Both deserve to win but people are so invested into the Embiid vs Jokic MVP talk that SGA needs to do a lot more in order to change the narrative. He's not going to blow away Jokic on stats so his biggest MVP boost would be OKC standing.

we'll see how the Murray injury shakes out, Nuggets are playing the Lakers in L.A in a couple of days and then head home to play PHX and Boston. that's some bad timing, without Murray they might drop all three maybe they eek one out

OKC on the other hand has two tough matchups coming up as well, their next two are @PHX, @Lakers

[Wolfgang630]

These guy gotta hurry up. Wemby gonna win at least 4 MVPs