Will this be John Walls breakout year?

[B-easy]

Rose and Westbrook didn't improve much from season 1 to season 2. It was the 3rd year where they broke out. But for Wall the expectations higher and people expect more from him. I think he is still on track as those to. My bet is he will breakout next season. Time will tell though.

[bullsnewdynasty]

Rose and Westbrook didn't improve much from season 1 to season 2. It was the 3rd year where they broke out. But for Wall the expectations higher and people expect more from him. I think he is still on track as those to. My bet is he will breakout next season. Time will tell though.

Yeah they did. They were both better.

[bledredwine]

Um,

Westbrook and Rose improved plenty within there first two years.

And they both put on more muscle.

[Rerisen]

The D Rose comparisons are really stupid. They have speed in common, that's it. Rose is more athletic, much stronger and a stronger finisher, even faster (healthy), plays better D, and of course has a much better shot.

The stats suggest Wall is a better finisher. Wall made 62% of his shots at the rim, Rose made just 58% last year and 60% the year before. And this despite Wall having to finish against tougher interior defense because opposing defenses can pack the lane (since neither Wall nor his teammates can shoot from the perimeter). Wall also averaged .45 free throws per shot attempt (compared to Rose's .34).

A lot of his high at rim % is transition. Wall (27.8% to Rose 19.5% scoring in transition). Not really a true measure of who is finishing better vs set defense. The Wizards have played a much more reckless offensive style where the Bulls are a grind it out halfcourt team (9th vs 28 pace). When Rose runs, he has to be 1 man fastbreak. So system is affecting that big time. Rose also gets to the rim a little bit more per minute (6.9 to 6.4 per 40m) even despite the above, which evens out a couple of % points, since those are the best shots you can get and more volume is a plus.

Would also challenge that Wall sees more defense. He isn't an efficient scorer, and is only medium volume, you don't need to scheme your whole defense to stop him. When guys like Blatche and Nick Young were there, the Wiz had much more non-PG options that could score on their own than the Bulls, who have had none for two years outside of Rose.

Wall might have better vision *on certain plays* where he exhibits it, but he also is much less careful than Rose, and makes more mistakes. Rose makes the smart and easy plays, while Wall is more turnover prone.

Wall just doesn't impress that he knows how to manage the tempo of an offense, and methodically hunt for the best shot for his team. We can blame poor teammates (perhaps coaching to some degree) and that has some merit, but only for so long. At some point you have will have to go back to the source, the guy leading the offense. Which the last two years was ranked 25th, and 28th. So not much proven so far.

Honestly, he has a long way to go. Saying he just needs a jumpshot to be as impactful as Rose is lackluster analysis. Even with a jumper its a big stretch to say he goes from 16 Pts/36 to 23 or 24 like Rose who has a true scoring takeover mentality when his team needs it.

Historically, you would look at year 2 as a pretty good future predictor of where a player might start establishing a baseline for career yearly performance. But with guys that come in real young like Rose and Wall, year 3 is often just as or more telling. That is when Rose busted out. So I would say this season is make or break for Wall. If he is treading water after it, then we are moving into a Tyreke Evans situation, where clinging to the 'huge potential' line will start sounding a bit more desperate.

[Deus]

Wall can't shoot worth a shete. But that's no mystery. He needs to take better shots and increase his FG% by AT LEAST 5 points. If he can do that, he'll be a top 10 PG in my book. If not, he's a mediocre guy who nobody wants on their team.

[Senor Chang]

The D Rose comparisons are really stupid. They have speed in common, that's it. Rose is more athletic, much stronger and a stronger finisher, even faster (healthy), plays better D, and of course has a much better shot.

The stats suggest Wall is a better finisher. Wall made 62% of his shots at the rim, Rose made just 58% last year and 60% the year before. And this despite Wall having to finish against tougher interior defense because opposing defenses can pack the lane (since neither Wall nor his teammates can shoot from the perimeter). Wall also averaged .45 free throws per shot attempt (compared to Rose's .34).

A lot of his high at rim % is transition. Wall (27.8% to Rose 19.5% scoring in transition). Not really a true measure of who is finishing better vs set defense. The Wizards have played a much more reckless offensive style where the Bulls are a grind it out halfcourt team (9th vs 28 pace). When Rose runs, he has to be 1 man fastbreak. So system is affecting that big time. Rose also gets to the rim a little bit more per minute (6.9 to 6.4 per 40m) even despite the above, which evens out a couple of % points, since those are the best shots you can get and more volume is a plus.

I found it odd that one would attempt to argue that Wall is better around the rim than Rose. If there is one thing Derrick does exceptionally well it is finishing around the basket in a number of awkward angles through contact. That skill is what makes Derrick Rose who he is.

In transition Derrick is more likely to slow it down and start the half court offense while Wall is more likely to go for the transition bucket. This should explain the discrepancy in their fg% at the basket. The fact that Derrick is so good at finishing in traffic means he doesn't get the benefit of charity whistles a player tends to get when they miss those bunnies around the hoop.

[TheExpert91]

I think his decision making/ floor general part of the game this upcoming season will determine whether he has a breakout year or not. Of course his inconsistent jumper is an issue. This year he has a solid supporting cast and the chance to make a run at the postseason. If he becomes a leader on the floor he becomes an ALL STAR

[Little Digger]

John Wall will never breakout..Doesnt have the game to back up the hype..Even at Kentucky he struggled to finish at the rim and of course his J has always been broken.

[TheExpert91]

John Wall will never breakout..Doesnt have the game to back up the hype..Even at Kentucky he struggled to finish at the rim and of course his J has always been broken.

struggled to finish at the rim???

[barelyawake]

Those comparing the Chitown 2009 team to the Wiz 2011 team have to keep one small thing in mind -- Chicago crafted their team with about a decade of top ten picks. Every single player on that Bulls team was better than what Wall had. Blatche was a second round pick who spent all his time at strip clubs and McGee was a laughing stock on Youtube. Chicago, after years of top picks, was expected to make the playoffs. Washington, by design, was tanking.

I don't believe Wall will be a superstar. But, some of the statements here follow a trend of Wiz players being downgraded while on the Wiz, and then hyped on their new teams. Hell, the McGee thread has more optimistic hopes for him than the number one pick (who put up historic numbers) does in this thread. It's a tad laughable.

[Little Digger]

John Wall will never breakout..Doesnt have the game to back up the hype..Even at Kentucky he struggled to finish at the rim and of course his J has always been broken.

struggled to finish at the rim???

He sure did..While you all we're buying into the Wall hype during his year at Kentucky, I was actually watching the games..Wall is a great kid and has superior quickness and nice length...but his game just isn't that of a dominate player..His bball IQ is below average for a PG, his jumper is broken and his fundamentals are shakey. That's why I had him 4th on my draft BIG BOARD..Cousins was obviously the best and most important player on that Kentucky team..Amazing how only a few basketball people realized this..Everybody else was blinded by the Wall hype

[deepblueday]

Those comparing the Chitown 2009 team to the Wiz 2011 team have to keep one small thing in mind -- Chicago crafted their team with about a decade of top ten picks. Every single player on that Bulls team was better than what Wall had. Blatche was a second round pick who spent all his time at strip clubs and McGee was a laughing stock on Youtube. Chicago, after years of top picks, was expected to make the playoffs. Washington, by design, was tanking.

I don't believe Wall will be a superstar. But, some of the statements here follow a trend of Wiz players being downgraded while on the Wiz, and then hyped on their new teams. Hell, the McGee thread has more optimistic hopes for him than the number one pick (who put up historic numbers) does in this thread. It's a tad laughable.

completely agree. anybody asking, "how long can we continue to blame his coaches and teammates?" is being a disingenuous ****. wall has been in the worst concievable situation for a young PG. rose gets drafted into that situation, hes just as ****.

[bullsnewdynasty]

Those comparing the Chitown 2009 team to the Wiz 2011 team have to keep one small thing in mind -- Chicago crafted their team with about a decade of top ten picks. Every single player on that Bulls team was better than what Wall had. Blatche was a second round pick who spent all his time at strip clubs and McGee was a laughing stock on Youtube. Chicago, after years of top picks, was expected to make the playoffs. Washington, by design, was tanking.

I don't believe Wall will be a superstar. But, some of the statements here follow a trend of Wiz players being downgraded while on the Wiz, and then hyped on their new teams. Hell, the McGee thread has more optimistic hopes for him than the number one pick (who put up historic numbers) does in this thread. It's a tad laughable.

You seem to have some misconceptions.

In 2008-09 the Bulls had guys like Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, and Tim Thomas on the roster for a part of the season, in addition to a broken down Nocioni. I don't think I need to say much more than these guys were terrible and I don't think anyone has ever liked these guys on their team.

Tyrus Thomas was widely recognized as a bust. He had low basketball IQ, feuded with the coaching staff, and never got it together. He was probably the worst draft pick in Bulls history.

Joakim Noah early in his career was immature. He had an outburst at an assistant coach and got suspended additional games by the vote of his own teammates. Not to mention a terrible offseason work ethic where he came into the season out of shape. He didn't come into his own until the 2009 playoffs.

Luol Deng had a lot of potential early on but seemed to get injured a lot. Most people saw him as an injury prone albatross because of his huge contract. And he appeared to be mentally fragile to some in that he couldn't deal well with trade rumors.

The point is that Deng and Noah weren't always what they are today. As a matter of fact, I recall a number of people who didn't think too highly of them, including some Bulls fans.

Ben Gordon was probably the most consistent player Rose played with, but it was only for 1 season.

If you're talking about turmoil...how about blowing a 35 point lead to the Kings at home in 2009-10, going on a 10 game losing streak as a result of injuries to your top 3 players, and the GM getting into a physical altercation with the coach? Yet they still made the playoffs with a rookie PF and no bench. If you want to excuse Wall for 20 win seasons that's fine, but realize that other teams had issues too, and don't try to construct your own version of reality. Rose has carried subpar talent to the playoffs before, and clearly had much more impact on winning than Wall did when comparing their first 2 seasons.

[BarnabyJones]

19/9/4 is my prediction for Wall this year.

[Ursusamericanus]

Yeah, I think it is. The Wizards are one of my favorite teams (unfortunately) and they finally seem to have gotten rid of some of the knuckleheads from last season. I can't put his struggles entirely on the environment but I do think it played a major role. This'll be a do or die type of season for him and I think it'll go well. I honestly think they could sneak into the playoffs this year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

12 ppg 4ast? Was that a typo?

Anyway. There is no reason not think he isn't going to break out this year. The Wizards have removed their cancers and occupied them with solid vets like Ariza and Nene. He along with the team played better last year once the moves were made and Beal was an excellent addition. Unless he has injury set backs, its highly likely he will excel this year.

I watched almost all of the Wizards games. In no way did Blatche, Nick Young, or Javale McGee hinder John Wall's progress. Blatche has been called a team cancer. His play was very bad last season. So was that of Rashard Lewis. They and others were not quality depth.

But to give John Wall an excuse like the media has done by blaming it on "cancers" is just wrong. I have seen John Wall get outplayed by Darren Collison. I've seen Wall miss key outside shots. I've seen him get beat by players like Jose Calderson or last season Ramon Sessions. I've wondered if Wall is that much better than Brandon Jennings or Jrue Holiday. I know he's not as good at Ty Lawson.

The team played better at the end of the season primarily because of contributions by Nene, James Singleton (no longer with team), Cartier Martin (deep bench this season), Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, and Chris Singleton. Wall played reasonably well, but he was NOT the catalyst. He won't carry a team but he is solid.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

He is nothing like Rose. Rose is an excellent finisher and has good offensive polish. Wall is nothing like that.

He's good at getting to the rim and drawing fouls though. If he finally improves his jumper this season and gains some overall offensive polish while learning to play in a half-court setting, there's no reason why he shouldn't break out.

To be completely honest, I just don't see it happening though. He has all the physical tools though, so it's hard to tell.

I agree wth all of this. I have a hard time seeing his 3-41 three point shooting improving to the point of him being an efficient scoring threat.

[ERRDAY3]

Wall put up okay numbers the last two years but i dont think he's as good as those numbers suggest he has a lot to work on.

[kasino]

seen him play Golden State/Dallas/Houston/Portland/Hornets/Cavs/Knicks/Raptors/Orlando
the man can play he wants to get the ball to the open man and no one can convert on his team and is required to score

[hands11]

The stats suggest Wall is a better finisher. Wall made 62% of his shots at the rim, Rose made just 58% last year and 60% the year before. And this despite Wall having to finish against tougher interior defense because opposing defenses can pack the lane (since neither Wall nor his teammates can shoot from the perimeter). Wall also averaged .45 free throws per shot attempt (compared to Rose's .34).

I also challenge the notion that Rose is a better defender, though defense is harder to prove with statistics.

Rose is a much better midrange shooter. That's the dramatic difference in their games. If Wall ever learns to shoot a respectable percentage from midrange, there's no reason at all to think that he won't be roughly as good as a healthy Rose. Wall also has better court vision.

Well said Nate. Also @bledredwine, I doubt Wall will average 20+ ppg. With the addition of Nene Okafor and Beal, Wall will be able to play his more natural style as a pass first point guard. I'm still a firm believer that EVEN if wall doesn't improve his outside shot, he can still be a game changer with his passing. Im expecting 18ppg and 9-10 assists with a SLIGHT bump in efficiency.

Agreed. I think his assist go up from previous years. He was already averaging 8 a game the last two years so 9, 10, maybe more is what I'm looking from him this year. He was at 16 pts a game already so if he just ups his assists and scores in that 16 to 18 range with a higher shooting percentage along with more assists, I would be happy with his progress, specially if the team is winning with him doing that. It won't just be about numbers for Wall, it will be about consistency, maturity, know what the team needs from him and when. Knowing how to manage his team by feeding the hot hand and setting things up. If he does that, the numbers will follow and so will the Ws.