Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Lakers

[Cliff Levingston]

I don't think Kobe has much left in the tank, and out West...a Boozer/Lin tagteam doesn't do ****. I feel like the Jazz, Lakers, and Kings if DMC gets hurt....will be the worst of the West this season.
Terrible depth at PG
Kobes knees are on the outs
SF spot is hot garbage
Stiffs at the five spot

Randle will be a player, and Boozer can still get some numbers....but after Kobe and the PF spot, this team is rough...and that's being kind.

Have to agree with this in total. Who knows what Randle will end up being. Nash and Kobe are major injury risks and far beyond their primes as players to start. There's no one else who figures to be any kind of impact player on that team. ICLO, the Kings will be better than the Lakers while they compete for the worst record in the West alongside the Jazz.

[jazzfan1971]

Just out of curiosity, are you using some kind of mathematical algorithm for these w-l predictions?

Not what I would call an algorithm, but an approach. The rough idea is that I take the projected rapm values and projected number of possessions for every player in the league that I think will get at least a certain minimum number of possessions, and use that to calculate a team scoring differential, and then use that to get an overall win loss. There are numerous complications along the way. I use a replacement player value for teams who are going to be forced into playing rookies or unknowns. I have to adjust the possession count from last year because players change teams, come back from injury (Kobe), get older, grow into larger roles, etc, etc. I also hand adjust some of the rapm values if the player appears to be an outlier (Beverly probably not really a top 10 player in the league). And I also try to account for the conference splits and uneven schedules.

I'm not finished combing all the data and there are some win totals I don't believe, like 15 for the Lakers. But I do think they will likely be last in the west.

Seems like a reasonable approach.

I've seen teh list for all 30 teams, and by and large that list looks pretty good. There are a couple teams that seem way too low, like teh Lakers and Hornets, but, the fact that the overall list passes the sniff test leads me to believe that the methodology is sound. So, there is no salt involved in the rankings at all as far as I know, I guess maybe he fudged on a few players, but, it's really a ground up approach based on data and projections.

Personally, I think the Lakers and Jazz are going to be fighting for that last spot, both around 25 wins (I'll say plus or minus 3) but, that's just me guessing. I feel a lot more comfortable posting projections based on Floppy's work than I do just my guesses. And who knows? Maybe the Lakers will be a 15 win team and it was everyone of us that was wrong and the system that was right.

For me, I'm going to give Floppy's rankings the benefit of doubt and not be too harsh until we get to the end of the year and can see how they really were.

Anyone that thinks otherwise, I challenge you to predict the record for all 30 teams yourself, and see if you were closer at the end of the year. It's pretty difficult to do. Injuries and trades really throw off early estimates. You might be surprised how off you end up.

[snaquille oatmeal]

I can't help but think it's that middle, if you will irrelevant middle, that is potentially the most dangerous for the Lakers.

Would the Lakers attempt an in-season tank if they find themselves in the undesirable middle?

Lakers' financial side can't afford a tank not even one as bad as last season. This is not Philly or Detroit where they sell tickets for $15 in the middle of the season. They need to justify the product to be able to ask $3000 for court-side seats.

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

[sonictecture]

Lakers' financial side can't afford a tank not even one as bad as last season. This is not Philly or Detroit where they sell tickets for $15 in the middle of the season. They need to justify the product to be able to ask $3000 for court-side seats.

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Perhaps some outside of LA are questioning the status of the Lakers culture? The first 20 or so games of the season should either remind us or make Laker fans question.

There is one other layer than the top, bottom and middle. This is where the Lakers were last year, perhaps we could call it the limbo. My question is if the Lakers start trending in this limbo layer again will the culture keep them there or will a decision be made to try and get to the bottom?

[RRyder823]

Lakers' financial side can't afford a tank not even one as bad as last season. This is not Philly or Detroit where they sell tickets for $15 in the middle of the season. They need to justify the product to be able to ask $3000 for court-side seats.

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Hey... The only way to build around here is by tanking and tanking hard. You should know that. No other way of doing it. lol

The Lakers are a desirable market and team for FA's and have shown the ability to build from the middle as u put it which a lot of people don't even think is possible no matter the market. The Laker culture should not be underestimated. The Lakers dont flat out tank. Personally I see Westbrook in their future if Durant jump from OKC to the Wizards because of that very culture...... Getting rid of kid Buss is another issue though

[floppymoose]

For me, I'm going to give Floppy's rankings the benefit of doubt and not be too harsh until we get to the end of the year and can see how they really were.

I think the main thing for the Lakers, and the reason I think 15 wins is actually pretty off, is that Kobe's return changes the roles of the other players. rapm is good at accounting for one players ability to make other players better, but only if he is there in the data. Kobe hasn't been there much lately. He'll take the pressure off some guys and they will end up having better rapm values than last year.

But they are in such a big hole that I still see them at the bottom of the west. They could edge out the Kings and the Jazz. But I have to pick one of them last and I'm going with the Lakers.

[PDX MM]

Wow I am not sure what to think here. As a life long Laker hater it brings me joy seeing this prediction but come on we are talking about the Lakers here. I think they will at least double that win total so my bet is an easy over.

[snaquille oatmeal]

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Perhaps some outside of LA are questioning the status of the Lakers culture? The first 20 or so games of the season should either remind us or make Laker fans question.

There is one other layer than the top, bottom and middle. This is where the Lakers were last year, perhaps we could call it the limbo. My question is if the Lakers start trending in this limbo layer again will the culture keep them there or will a decision be made to try and get to the bottom?

it is not just some from the outside that are questioning the Lakers culture some Lakers fans do too. I really don't think they would tank on purpose, unless the there are lots of injuries again and/or the team is genuinely really bad and they feel like they can salvage the Suns pick.

[sonictecture]

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Perhaps some outside of LA are questioning the status of the Lakers culture? The first 20 or so games of the season should either remind us or make Laker fans question.

There is one other layer than the top, bottom and middle. This is where the Lakers were last year, perhaps we could call it the limbo. My question is if the Lakers start trending in this limbo layer again will the culture keep them there or will a decision be made to try and get to the bottom?

it is not just some from the outside that are questioning the Lakers culture some Lakers fans do too. I really don't think they would tank on purpose, unless the there are lots of injuries again and/or the team is genuinely really bad and they feel like they can salvage the Suns pick.

I agree, I don't think the organization is necessarily looking to tank going into the season, but circumstances in season might guide them to getting worse rather than playing out the season just below the middle.

I'm trying to envision the Lakers as a scrappy bunch this season and see some pieces for that to happen, but I questions the mental fortitude of players not named Kobe to outwork opposing teams and I question Byron Scott's ability to innovate and motivate through the season.

[sabonis]

29 - Los Angeles Lakers

Projected record - 15/67

I know you two guys from fantasy basketball but come on.....

15 wins. The lowest number of wins in Lakers franchise history by far? This franchise managed to get 34 wins with Chris Mihm-Atkins starting and literally no bench...
Unless Kobe goes down, there is no frigging way this team wins less than 30 games.

[Throwback24]

I predict 24 wins. I think it'd be cool if the Lakers FO resigned Smush Parker, traded for Kwame Brown, and put a search on locating Sasha Vujacec to give Kobe bean bryant one last hooray before he retires at seasons end.

Could be one of the more memorable Laker seasons in history.

AKA just tank.

[Bruh Man]

For me, I'm going to give Floppy's rankings the benefit of doubt and not be too harsh until we get to the end of the year and can see how they really were.

I think the main thing for the Lakers, and the reason I think 15 wins is actually pretty off, is that Kobe's return changes the roles of the other players. rapm is good at accounting for one players ability to make other players better, but only if he is there in the data. Kobe hasn't been there much lately. He'll take the pressure off some guys and they will end up having better rapm values than last year.

But they are in such a big hole that I still see them at the bottom of the west. They could edge out the Kings and the Jazz. But I have to pick one of them last and I'm going with the Lakers.

This doesn't make any sense, Lakers last year where beyond injury riddled and had a significantly worse team. They sat out Nash and Kobe for most the season because the team was going nowhere and they had a significantly worse coach as well and yet still weren't the worst team in the west. They add Kobe, Lin, Randle, Nash, Boozer, and Davis while only losing Gasol, Meeks, and Marshall.

Unless you think they will be even more injury riddled or that the bottom feeders in the West got that much better then you are way way off with your analysis. I'm willing to bet very good money they will not be the worst team in the west even if they injury riddled like last season, If even relatively healthy then they will be much much better than last season.

You don't give any good reason why you think they would be worse than last season let alone the worst team in the west.

[Guy986]

The 76ers won 19 games last year. They were literally TRYING to lose.

Kobe and friends should be able to win 10 games just by accident.

15 is really really low. I'll bet 100 dollar on over with the OP.

[RollingWave]

I have to say that more than anything, 15 win is historically bad level , there's a lot of questions on this Laker team, but to project almost any team that's not running out all replacement level guys as historically bad is very very risky at best. and there's almost certainly a ton of well above replacement level guys on that roster.

[floppymoose]

15 is really really low. I'll bet 100 dollar on over with the OP.

You should read the thread. I've already said 15 is just a placeholder. No one here is arguing 15 wins.

[beerbrewer]

Lakers' financial side can't afford a tank not even one as bad as last season. This is not Philly or Detroit where they sell tickets for $15 in the middle of the season. They need to justify the product to be able to ask $3000 for court-side seats.

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Culture don't mean squat when your team is mismanaged parts and an over the hill, coming off 2 major injury superstar. Just saying.

[EArl]

Good points, but at what point do those expensive seats stop selling and the Laker games stop being a place to be seen? The tickets for next season are already sold, it seems to me Lakers management could strategically tank next season without a huge backlash.

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Culture don't mean squat when your team is mismanaged parts and an over the hill, coming off 2 major injury superstar. Just saying.

It still doesn't change the fact that we don't tank. Even last year when we won those two last meaningless games guys like Swaggy P were still playing hard.

[EArl]

Im actually down for a sig bet that the Lakers get at least 30 wins floppymoose and Jazzfan.

[beerbrewer]

the one thing you haven't consider is the Lakers culture. The Lakers don't tank on purpose. they are not Philly or the Twolfs. when they are bad is due to injuries or a bad team core, but even with a bad team core they still competed and not tank.

I realize that at realgm's GB the only way to rebuild is from the bottom up, but the Lakers have done it from the middle before. and with all these short term contracts that they have being in the "undesirable middle" is not so undesirable from the GO point of view.

Culture don't mean squat when your team is mismanaged parts and an over the hill, coming off 2 major injury superstar. Just saying.

It still doesn't change the fact that we don't tank. Even last year when we won those two last meaningless games guys like Swaggy P were still playing hard.

The Lakers might not tank....but they should probably think about it.edit:
Where is the team going Kobe is done next year, if not sooner. Nash is done. Randle is unknown, he could be Boozer or Thomas Robinson but ether way that's not a solid building block (ask CLE). Lin is a Chinese hero and nothing beyond that. Swaggy P is Faggy P.

Remember, it took Shaq AND kobe to jell to start winning again. So where are the 2 superstars going to come from? You gonna pilfer Durant and Cousins somehow? OKC and SAC might have something to say about that. Gonna take Davis and LeBron? Dreaming. What is LA's plan going forward?

[spaceballer]

The Lakers might not tank....but they should probably think about it.

Why? To give the Suns a better draft pick? Because the only way that they're 100% guaranteed to keep their pick is if they finish with a bottom 2 record. That's extremely hard, going up against the likes of the Super Tanking Sixers, who still managed to get more than 15 wins last year no matter how hard they tanked and actually WANTED to lose.