The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[nurseryc]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

What are you talking about? Simmons is neck and neck in the voting with DM for ROY. Simmons, Ingram and to some extent Jaylen Brown are doing well from the 2016 draft class.

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

[Kurt Heimlich]

Lauri with a solid 19/4 with 3 steals in a W against a playoff team

Watch on YouTube

Is he the Bulls fan's favorite player? Or does Dunn have that honor? both have been excellent.

Lauri, Dunn and Lavine are splinting the honors amongst the fanbase.

In tonight's Pistons win:
Lauri 19pts 4rbs 3stls in 27minutes
Dunn 18pts 8rbs 8asts 3stls 3blks in 31minutes
Lavine 14pts in 19minutes first game back from injury

The Jimmy Butler trade is looking like an all time great trade that helped both teams immensely.

[levon]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

What are you talking about? Simmons is neck and neck in the voting with DM for ROY. Simmons, Ingram and to some extent Jaylen Brown are doing well from the 2016 draft class.

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

It's probably a lot of recency bias, but I'll try to answer as someone who has Mitchell higher. The scoring is super critical in late game situations. They've been camping Simmons out by the baseline in late game situations because he can't do much without Embiid drawing attention in that scenario. Meanwhile, DM had a few games where his last few minute plays directly won the game (even though he couldn't hit anything that last game).

I think Simmons' unwillingness to get some game reps and take an outside shot is hurting is effectiveness down the stretch. Further, DM is the man in Utah while imo Embiid is the man in Philly.

[HeartBreakKid]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

ever? thats a little much

[ballup]

If Kuzma was given the offensive role Markkanen was given, I feel like he'd be producing as well if not better. Can people who know better address this?

Kuzma Vs Lauri:

PPG: 16.7 Vs 15.4
FG: 45.9 Vs 42.8%
3Pt: 36.9 Vs 36.7%
APG: 1.8 Vs 1.3

Kuzma beats Markkanen in all offensive stats above except FT percentage. The only major stat Markkanen beats Kuzma in right now is rebound by a good 1.3 rpg.

6.3 Vs 7.6 rpg

FG difference is because Lauri has taken 50 more 3s and 20 more mid rangers, the latter of which Lauri shoots 10% better than Kuzma.

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[TwoStarz]

There isn't a GM on the planet that would take ball over Donovan freakin Mitchell in a redraft. And saying he's got a higher upside than any one of Mitchell, Tatum, or Markkanen is just lakers fans being overly optimistic with their botched pick.

Having said that, ball is a pretty brilliant passer & his bbiq at his age is very impressive

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


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[Moonbeam]

There isn't a GM on the planet that would take ball over Donovan freakin Mitchell in a redraft. And saying he's got a higher upside than any one of Mitchell, Tatum, or Markkanen is just lakers fans being overly optimistic with their botched pick.

Having said that, ball is a pretty brilliant passer & his bbiq at his age is very impressive

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


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Donovan Mitchell has a great feel for the game. He has taken over games a few times this season to eke out wins for the Jazz. Ball has a good feel for the game as well, but you don't have to bring down Mitchell to prop up Ball.

At this stage, this feels like the best class of rookies for the past 15 years.

[PaKii94]

If Kuzma was given the offensive role Markkanen was given, I feel like he'd be producing as well if not better. Can people who know better address this?

Kuzma Vs Lauri:

PPG: 16.7 Vs 15.4
FG: 45.9 Vs 42.8%
3Pt: 36.9 Vs 36.7%
APG: 1.8 Vs 1.3

Kuzma beats Markkanen in all offensive stats above except FT percentage. The only major stat Markkanen beats Kuzma in right now is rebound by a good 1.3 rpg.

6.3 Vs 7.6 rpg

FG difference is because Lauri has taken 50 more 3s and 20 more mid rangers, the latter of which Lauri shoots 10% better than Kuzma.

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That's why you always need context for stats

[TwoStarz]

There isn't a GM on the planet that would take ball over Donovan freakin Mitchell in a redraft. And saying he's got a higher upside than any one of Mitchell, Tatum, or Markkanen is just lakers fans being overly optimistic with their botched pick.

Having said that, ball is a pretty brilliant passer & his bbiq at his age is very impressive

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


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Donovan Mitchell has a great feel for the game. He has taken over games a few times this season to eke out wins for the Jazz. Ball has a good feel for the game as well, but you don't have to bring down Mitchell to prop up Ball.

At this stage, this feels like the best class of rookies for the past 15 years.

Oh the point of my post certainly wasn’t to bring down Mitchell. He has been pretty impressive for a rookie. I just don’t think a volume scoring guard is going to be more valuable than Ball (controls the pace, rebounds at an elite level, passes at an elite level, defends at an elite level and most importantly is able to change the culture of a team on its own). I mean there is a reason so many important figures in the nba gush over the kids potential, he truly is a transcendent talent. I was only refuting the ”not a gm that would take Ball over Donovan” piece from that guys quote.


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[michaelm]

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Donovan Mitchell has a great feel for the game. He has taken over games a few times this season to eke out wins for the Jazz. Ball has a good feel for the game as well, but you don't have to bring down Mitchell to prop up Ball.

At this stage, this feels like the best class of rookies for the past 15 years.

Oh the point of my post certainly wasn’t to bring down Mitchell. He has been pretty impressive for a rookie. I just don’t think a volume scoring guard is going to be more valuable than Ball (controls the pace, rebounds at an elite level, passes at an elite level, defends at an elite level and most importantly is able to change the culture of a team on its own). I mean there is a reason so many important figures in the nba gush over the kids potential, he truly is a transcendent talent. I was only refuting the ”not a gm that would take Ball over Donovan” piece from that guys quote.


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As I have said I am an Australian fan very much hoping for the best from Simmons, but am unconvinced at this stage he will necessarily prove to be a more valuable player than Ball at their respective peaks, and don’t disagree with anything you contend.

[Moonbeam]

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Donovan Mitchell has a great feel for the game. He has taken over games a few times this season to eke out wins for the Jazz. Ball has a good feel for the game as well, but you don't have to bring down Mitchell to prop up Ball.

At this stage, this feels like the best class of rookies for the past 15 years.

Oh the point of my post certainly wasn’t to bring down Mitchell. He has been pretty impressive for a rookie. I just don’t think a volume scoring guard is going to be more valuable than Ball (controls the pace, rebounds at an elite level, passes at an elite level, defends at an elite level and most importantly is able to change the culture of a team on its own). I mean there is a reason so many important figures in the nba gush over the kids potential, he truly is a transcendent talent. I was only refuting the ”not a gm that would take Ball over Donovan” piece from that guys quote.


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Oh, I think nobody knows for sure what GMs would do - that's hyperbole no matter which player is favored in this case, I feel. Both Ball and Mitchell show a lot of promise. I do think you might be underestimating what Mitchell is doing a little, though. In league history, there have only been 30 rookies who have put up at least 18 PPG on 54+ TS, and most of those are bigs. In that list, every retired player was an All-Star at least once.

I know those are arbitrary cutpoints, but Mitchell has been trending upward in PPG and efficiency over the course of the season. It wouldn't surprise me if he finished north of 20 PPG and 55 TS.

[CBS7]

If Kuzma was given the offensive role Markkanen was given, I feel like he'd be producing as well if not better. Can people who know better address this?

Kuzma Vs Lauri:

PPG: 16.7 Vs 15.4
FG: 45.9 Vs 42.8%
3Pt: 36.9 Vs 36.7%
APG: 1.8 Vs 1.3

Kuzma beats Markkanen in all offensive stats above except FT percentage. The only major stat Markkanen beats Kuzma in right now is rebound by a good 1.3 rpg.

6.3 Vs 7.6 rpg

Lakers also play at the fastest pace in the NBA according to stats (whereas the Bulls are close to the league average), so Kuzma's stats are ever so slightly inflated. Also explains why Lauri has a higher PER despite losing in most stats to Kuzma.

[RedBulls23]

If Kuzma was given the offensive role Markkanen was given, I feel like he'd be producing as well if not better. Can people who know better address this?

Kuzma Vs Lauri:

PPG: 16.7 Vs 15.4
FG: 45.9 Vs 42.8%
3Pt: 36.9 Vs 36.7%
APG: 1.8 Vs 1.3

Kuzma beats Markkanen in all offensive stats above except FT percentage. The only major stat Markkanen beats Kuzma in right now is rebound by a good 1.3 rpg.

6.3 Vs 7.6 rpg

FG difference is because Lauri has taken 50 more 3s and 20 more mid rangers, the latter of which Lauri shoots 10% better than Kuzma.

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Also, Lauri and Kuzma have the same usage% on offense, so Lauri doesn't have a bigger role than Kuzma does.

[crazy_me_87]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

ever? thats a little much

Ehm yeah. And its not even really that arguable.

At least if we focus on the "all around" part. If you search on Basketball Reference for rookies with over 16 PPG 8 RPG and 7 APG and over 1.5 Steals and shooting over 50% ... you get exactly one. Ben. Remove the FG% and you get Oscar Robertson and Ben... If you lower the Rebounds to below 8 Magic joins them.

I would think with that kind of rare air "one of the best all around rookie seasons ever" is not that much of a stretch. Then if you consider that he not only does almost 17 PPG and over 7 APG ... he actually is borderline elite on Defense... (hell you can basically scratch the "borderline" ...).. his Two way Impact for a Rookie PG is insane.

[mj23z]

What are you talking about? Simmons is neck and neck in the voting with DM for ROY. Simmons, Ingram and to some extent Jaylen Brown are doing well from the 2016 draft class.

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

It's probably a lot of recency bias, but I'll try to answer as someone who has Mitchell higher. The scoring is super critical in late game situations. They've been camping Simmons out by the baseline in late game situations because he can't do much without Embiid drawing attention in that scenario. Meanwhile, DM had a few games where his last few minute plays directly won the game (even though he couldn't hit anything that last game).

I think Simmons' unwillingness to get some game reps and take an outside shot is hurting is effectiveness down the stretch. Further, DM is the man in Utah while imo Embiid is the man in Philly.

I'm not sure how many 76ers games you've watched but lately(not including Boston game) Simmons has been carrying the Sixers in the clutch. He pretty much single handedly won the Detroit game in the clutch.

In clutch situations (less than 5min left and score within 5 points) Simmons is only 2nd to Markkanen in points scored, but Simmons has a much higher efficiency (%72.7). In fact Tatum (at %70.4) is the only other rookie who comes close to Simmons efficiency in clutch situations (of players with more than 5 fga's):

In clutch:
Simmons: +18, 51pts (%72.7), 21rbs, 14ast, 4stl
Mitchell: -18, 41pts (%47.1), 2rbs, 5ast, 2stl

http://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=NBA_FANTASY_PTS&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerExperience=Rookie&PerMode=Totals

[crazy_me_87]

At this stage, this feels like the best class of rookies for the past 15 years.

If we include Ben and then look at all the great Looking guys from the Actual 2017 Draft.. absolutely. Ben,Donovan,Tatum just scream "future HOFmer" ..they have that "special" vibe about them. Then you have a host of guys like Kuzma,Markannen,Smith,Collins and others who all look like they at least have All Star Potential.

And well Lonzo.. while yeah his shooting is still actually hit and miss^^ his all around Game is already very impressive.

[SmartWentCrazy]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

ever? thats a little much

Ehm yeah. And its not even really that arguable.

At least if we focus on the "all around" part. If you search on Basketball Reference for rookies with over 16 PPG 8 RPG and 7 APG and over 1.5 Steals and shooting over 50% ... you get exactly one. Ben. Remove the FG% and you get Oscar Robertson and Ben... If you lower the Rebounds to below 8 Magic joins them.

I would think with that kind of rare air "one of the best all around rookie seasons ever" is not that much of a stretch. Then if you consider that he not only does almost 17 PPG and over 7 APG ... he actually is borderline elite on Defense... (hell you can basically scratch the "borderline" ...).. his Two way Impact for a Rookie PG is insane.

The thing is, those cut-offs are rather arbitrary and overweighting the impact of an assist or rebound compared to scoring. I mean, Magic averaged 18/7.3/7.7 with 2.4 steals on 53% shooting, but you’ve randomly declared that .3 rebounds are more valuable than 1.1 points.

Look at MJ as a rookie - 28.2/6.5/5.9 with 2.4 steals and 51.5% shooting. Does an assist and a rebound per game really offset Jordan’s 10+ points? Bird dropped 21.3/10.4/4.5 on 47.4% shooting and was the primary spark in the greatest win differential year over year— what makes Simmons season better?

We can repeat this exercise with many other all-time greats and the same pattern will bear out— Simmons is having a great rookie season, one of the better ones in the past 15 years, but he’s just not having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever.

[bakesale]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

What are you talking about? Simmons is neck and neck in the voting with DM for ROY. Simmons, Ingram and to some extent Jaylen Brown are doing well from the 2016 draft class.

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

The thing is he's way better at shooting and that matters in today's NBA.

Simmons hasn't even shot a 3 pointer yet.

[crazy_me_87]

The thing is, those cut-offs are rather arbitrary and overweighting the impact of an assist or rebound compared to scoring. I mean, Magic averaged 18/7.3/7.7 with 2.4 steals on 53% shooting, but you’ve randomly declared that .3 rebounds are more valuable than 1.1 points.

Look at MJ as a rookie - 28.2/6.5/5.9 with 2.4 steals and 51.5% shooting. Does an assist and a rebound per game really offset Jordan’s 10+ points? Bird dropped 21.3/10.4/4.5 on 47.4% shooting and was the primary spark in the greatest win differential year over year— what makes Simmons season better?

We can repeat this exercise with many other all-time greats and the same pattern will bear out— Simmons is having a great rookie season, one of the better ones in the past 15 years, but he’s just not having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever.

Thats why i included Magic because i know his Rookie stats.

We have to agree to disagree on the Scoring part though... But maybe thats just me. I never was a fan of pure Scoring. Magic is usually very high on my All Time lists for example. Ahead of many much better Scorers.

I will take a 18/8/8 guy over a 25/4/4 guy anyday of the Week. But again.. maybe thats just me..
If you look at how many Points a Player is responsible for Assists suddenly become really valuable.

Lets just for fun consider every 2nd Assist is a Three so every Assists gets your Team 2.5 Points. For Ben that would mean he would be Responsible for 18 Points in Assists and 16.9 in his own Scoring. Thats 35 Points in total. MJ for example if we consider nearly no Threes where shot back then would only be responsible for 41 Points. Bird for 30 and Magic for 34. Now its totally fair to say that its unfair to those Legends because of the 3pt Shot.

Lets look at this years Rookies.

Donovan Mitchell would be responsible fpr 27,3 Points
Tatum for 17,25
Lonzo: 27,75

I would argue that especially in todays Game where so many assists especially for a drive and Kick guy like Ben are resulting in 3 Points the Assists is worth more than ever.

[stitches]

Yikes. This thread has turned cancerous.