Slava wrote:yoyoboy wrote:I don’t see LA holding onto a top 4 spot in the West. They lost against the only real challenge they’ve had so far and they’ve had essentially one road game.
They are third in the league in defensive rating at 98.35, 4th if you adjust for the strength of opponent.
Top of the league in margin of victory, 5th if you adjust for strength of opponent.
11th in the league in 3 point % differential and 21st in attempts.
20th in rebounding differential.
So at least do some work before posting and hoping no one would check.
The rebounding, perimeter defense, and shooting have all looked bottom third of the league level, so I’m not convinced yet this is some juggernaut because of a 4-1 start.
25th in 3PM per game
23th in 3P%
24th in DREB%
22nd in OREB%
20th in Reb Diff
2018-19 DRPM:
Green: +2.07 (1/99 among SGs)
Rondo: -1.38 (50/68 among PGs)
Cook: -3.49 (65/68 among PGs)
Daniels: -1.23 (64/74 among SFs)
Caruso: +0.77 (11/99 among SGs)
Bradley: -1.22 (59/85 among SGs)
Caldwell-Pope: -2.17 (76/85 among SGs)
Kuzma: -0.77 (64/78 among PFs)
So, so far the outside shooting and rebounding have looked every part of bottom third of the league level as I said. And while there isn’t a good measure of individual defense for 5 games worth, we can look at last year’s DRPM data to see roughly how good the perimeter defenders on the team are. Note: Kuzma is listed with the PFs but he’ll most likely be defending SFs this year. As you can see above, Green is a fantastic defender. Caruso is good. And the other 6 guys are
awful and in some instances right near the very bottom. The team DRTG is great now but over a larger sample size, the porous perimeter defense will probably start to take a toll, especially when Rondo comes back and starts getting minutes.
The Lakers have indeed performed well so far when you look at record, point differential, and DRTG, but again, 4 of the 5 games have essentially been at home. Memphis and Charlotte will be bottom 5 teams in the league, so those aren’t too impressive of teams to beat up on. Utah at home without Bogdanović and during the midst of an uncharacteristically awful Conley start to the season is an okay win. Dallas on the road is a good win. The Clippers without George and in a stadium of mostly Lakers fans was a bad loss. 3 games against Denver, 2 games against Philly, 2 games against Milwaukee, 2 games against Toronto, 3 games against San Antonio, 3 games against Houston, 3 games against LAC, 3 games against Utah, 3 games against Portland...all still on the horizon. And what happens when Davis inevitably goes down? Also, LeBron has been going balls to the wall so far and I don’t see that lasting a full regular season when he’s trying to preserve himself for the postseason.
I’m sticking to my prediction that the Lakers will win ~48 games and fail to earn HCA in the playoffs. And LeBron and Davis will have to play at GOAT levels for the team to advance to the WCF. I don’t see any way they make a Finals appearance though.