Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[Johnny Bball]

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That is truly incredible. I read the first post/thread rules and didn't at all understand what/who it was trying to stop. I thought... there can't be people like that out there, right? Thanks for this. Just wow though.

[slamilcarBarca]

Americans are simply doing the same mistake every other country did... They are not taking it seriously. Europe is basically in total lockdown already, so is South America. As an European i can understand why people didn't want to overreact when it was just in Asia (heck, that happens every few years doesn't it?), and thought it was going to be ok for us.

But when you see nations like Italy be near a breaking point and all other European countries whose healthcare can easily rival the US go into basically total quarantines and lockdown you should KNOW IT'S SERIOUS! Nations aren't crashing their economies for the lulz. And yet most in the US still believe it will pass without affecting them, and because of that it will affect them 10x more than if they did the same as Italy is doing right now for example.

I think it's important to note that initially you actually want cases to rise. You want people to get the virus but in a way they can get best possible treatment.

So you have to let it grow before you impose lockdowns. The lockdowns will plateau the cases and let the hospitals treat patients while also getting as many people the virus as safely possible.

We won't be in the clear until at least 50% get it

step up millennials!! those generations before you that you like to mock and deride did a lot more than "catch a cold", as some people still seem to be calling this . . .

[ItsDanger]

Phase 1 trial for Covid19 vaccine has begun in Seattle. Obviously the long term impact on body's organs is critical and will take months to determine if vaccine is successful. But thats a very quick result to get a vaccine trial (approx 60 days).

[GordanFreeman]

Gotta say: I'm not a fan of this virus.

I don’t why but I read this in Norm Macdonald’s voice.

[Pharmcat]

Phase 1 trial for Covid19 vaccine has begun in Seattle. Obviously the long term impact on body's organs is critical and will take months to determine if vaccine is successful. But thats a very quick result to get a vaccine trial (approx 60 days).

Vaccines usually take 12-18 months
I'm not sure I would take vaccine that has been made quicker than that .

[DingleJerry]

I'd say pre-Gobert you'd say we weren't doing enough in all aspects. In a post-Gobert world the USA (government aspect anyway) is doing tons in regards to shutting so much stuff down. They're basically one step away from all out lockdown right now, that is a drastic escalation in "taking it serious" in less than a week. The question is yet to be seen if that was still a week or two too late.

The general population though in regards to still going out to bars/restaurants etc seems to still have not quite set in as of last weekend. I was told most places you really couldn't tell the difference. And I did run out to get food and was shocked how filled places were. My views on it from a mid size city in the US anyway.

[zimpy27]

Americans are simply doing the same mistake every other country did... They are not taking it seriously. Europe is basically in total lockdown already, so is South America. As an European i can understand why people didn't want to overreact when it was just in Asia (heck, that happens every few years doesn't it?), and thought it was going to be ok for us.

But when you see nations like Italy be near a breaking point and all other European countries whose healthcare can easily rival the US go into basically total quarantines and lockdown you should KNOW IT'S SERIOUS! Nations aren't crashing their economies for the lulz. And yet most in the US still believe it will pass without affecting them, and because of that it will affect them 10x more than if they did the same as Italy is doing right now for example.

I think it's important to note that initially you actually want cases to rise. You want people to get the virus but in a way they can get best possible treatment.

So you have to let it grow before you impose lockdowns. The lockdowns will plateau the cases and let the hospitals treat patients while also getting as many people the virus as safely possible.

We won't be in the clear until at least 50% get it

Why?

We don't know if recovery provides any kind of immunity: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/15/can-you-get-infected-by-coronavirus-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/#4ee8b3195c0f

There is no evidence of saying things like "herd immunity" will be achieved and should be risked to target. I'd rather impose lockdowns before it grows and then do everything to limit the spread until the vaccine is available.

Acquired immunity is the default here, you'd rather be looking for evidence that immunity can't be acquired, of which there is very little.

If we can't get immunity to it then vaccines won't work. We will be waiting for years in isolation for scientists to develop treatments. It's just not realistic. Letting a 2% mortality rate play out is more realistic.

[slamilcarBarca]

Phase 1 trial for Covid19 vaccine has begun in Seattle. Obviously the long term impact on body's organs is critical and will take months to determine if vaccine is successful. But thats a very quick result to get a vaccine trial (approx 60 days).

Vaccines usually take 12-18 months
I'm not sure I would take vaccine that has been made quicker than that .

read about it. they didn't just stir this up over the weekend. the virus is not a component of the vaccine. it simply creates antibodies to recognize and eliminate foreign proteins. the aim has long been to find a way to eliminate the entire virus family. kind of like when Luke hit the sweet spot on the death star after Wedge choked.


i'd take it.

[EvanZ]

Phase 1 trial for Covid19 vaccine has begun in Seattle. Obviously the long term impact on body's organs is critical and will take months to determine if vaccine is successful. But thats a very quick result to get a vaccine trial (approx 60 days).

Just to be clear Fauci already said the Phase I trial would take a year. That's just to test safety.

[zimpy27]

Maybe we can get a little more investment in science and medical research after all of this.

[chrismikayla]

Hey everyone I'm sure this doctor has been mentioned at some point(John Campbell). He said that taking medications to reduce fever can be harmful due to fever being the body's natural response to kill foreign invaders. I wonder how many severe cases are people who developed a fever and took ibuprofen or something similar? It's interesting at least because I've had the flu twice in my life. The first time was in my early twenties and I took aspirin and motrin religiously. I also took prednisone which I reacted horribly to ( I will never in life take prednisone again). I felt horrible for several days and it took me weeks to get all my energy back. The second time was a couple years ago. I took no OTC medications. I drank black elderberry syrup and stayed extra hydrated. The flu was much less severe and a much shorter duration this last time.

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[6ixSideSniper]

Maybe we can get a little more investment in science and medical research after all of this.

Bill Gates has warned the world for years.

Everyone wrote him off as a bored ultra-rich guy trying to find his new hobby.

[DingleJerry]

Maybe we can get a little more investment in science and medical research after all of this.

Exactly. This is a big wake up on that sense and in also in regards to getting a protocol in place for the future on these issues. With how much the world is interconnected now this is going to happen more than it has in the past. But then you realize they had a whole division dedicated to Pandemics and it was disbanded last year and you just roll your eyes.

[HotRocks34]

Huge amount of info from the task force press conference today. Will try to summarize below.


- FDA has said individual states can now authorize their own tests (not need FDA approval on this now)
- Expansion of Medicare tele-health services. States can cover cost of this as well (not rely on Medicare if not want to)
- Waiving HIPPA (medical policy) so doctors can do tele-health stuff on like own personal phones
- We encourage people to do tele-health. This will reduce hospital capacity, and protect vulnerable seniors from exposure
- Talked to fast foods chains today and they said would stay open and use drive-thru services (social distancing)
- Senate is taking up Virus Stimulus #1 bill today
- New York is now #1 hotspot for virus
- Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) on standby
- There will be full report on drive-thru testing later in the week as sites come on line (places open for testing)
- Soon every major TV network will have PSA spots on the virus
- We spoke with Department of Defense (DOD) about supply stockpiles
- Fed Reserve setting up special thing which Treasury will invest 10 billion in. Will enable Fed to guarantee A1P1 stuff. This is (or will be) a 1 trillion market. This should help a lot. Fed can now purchase 1 trillion dollars worth of paper now, if needed
- 300 billion put into IRS fund or something (not catch this)
- Individuals can defer up to 1 million in IRS payments for 90 days. No fees.
- Businesses can defer up to 10 million in IRS payments for 90 days. No fees.
- We're working on Virus Stimulus #2. Payments to small biz. Loan guarantees to key industries. Payments for workers
- (think it was said) Virus Stimulus #2 proposal will be announced today
- We want to keep the stock market open now. So people have access to their money
- We're starting to work with states to increase hospital capacity. We'll probably supplement what states do.
- DOD can help in medical capacity. ACOE can help renovate existing buildings to use for medical purposes
- We're doing inventory of field hospitals (like MASH; guessing this is DOD stuff). Can be deployed rapidly
- We have some MASH-type stockpiles in or near Washington state that can be used if needed
- There may be 100% chance of recession. Deal with that after defeat virus
- We have to win. Must flatten the curve
- Hopefully we won't need a national lockdown (like San Francisco)



Giroir (testing czar)
- As of this morning, done more than 59,000 tests in USA. 8200 done yesterday by clinical labs (private sector) alone.
- Soon we will get all testing information, from all sources (test data; some not have to give it right now)
- Drive thru labs are on the way. In next few days, we want to set up 47 of them in 12 states
- (Asked about WHO kits that USA apparently turned down). I talked to as many WHO people as I could find. As far as I can tell, no one ever offered a test we refused. The WHO kits were research-level tests (either not very good or not gone through quality control to make sure they are good) that numbered in the tens of thousands that were offered to 100 nations on earth (point is, not very many of them to go around). I think much that has been said about the WHO kits is based on rumor and myths.



Birx
- We're working to set up a new roadmap (testing, etc) for future pandemics (expand testing ability so ramps up fast in future)
- We wanted a top-level test (not the "research level" Giroir mentioned above)
- You will see in coming months that other tests done around the world are not same quality of tests we're doing here
- The tests we are using studied rigorously by FDA to ensure quality.
- Anyone (in the world) can submit tests to us, but we don't buy test kits that have not been quality controlled by the FDA
- We will not accept kits that have not been studied and data affirmed by us
- If we used poor-quality tests, would increase panic. Think about how people might react if 47% of the people tested came back with false positives
- We just got Seattle and Santa Clara data and will study it
- Non-Wuhan mortality rate for virus around the world is settling in at 0.7% currently. But much higher for select groups (elderly)
- We are having a "model" meeting tomorrow (talk about models of what might take place for USA going forward)
- We want all data, for all tests, put up on a website that people can look at in real time



Fauci
- We will bend the curve. Not going to see peak, but a hump instead
- (Cuomo said peak may be in 45 days). Possible. We don't know yet
- We likely wont know for weeks if the new measures we're taking now are working

[Catchall]

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That is truly incredible. I read the first post/thread rules and didn't at all understand what/who it was trying to stop. I thought... there can't be people like that out there, right? Thanks for this. Just wow though.

For most people in 'red' states, the virus hasn't had much impact to date. For example, I'm in Utah right now. There are roughly 40 people who have tested positive statewide, maybe a few people are in ICU, and there are zero reported deaths so far. Most cases are related to travel to infected areas or direct contact with other known cases. There's been very little community spread.

Schools are closed. Businesses and restaurants are closed. People are staying home and taking precautions when they go out, but at this stage, it does feel like an overreaction in many places.

People here are sitting back and waiting for more information to emerge, but it's nothing like the situation in New York, Seattle or San Francisco.

[basketballRob]

The only thing that President Trump didn't tell the truth about was the WHO's test not working, when actually it was the CDC's test that initially didn't work.

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[Catchall]

Speaking of New York, I honestly think some of these large apartment buildings with shared elevators and recirculated air could become breeding grounds for the virus, much like the Princess cruise ships. That's why New York is going to have the highest rate of spread and it's a nightmare to try to achieve containment.

[mademan]

The virus isnt dangerous enough on an individual level for someone of my demographic to risk taking a vaccine that is fast tracked through and doesnt have long term safety data. I'd imagine a lot of people would feel the same way

[Ambrose]

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That is truly incredible. I read the first post/thread rules and didn't at all understand what/who it was trying to stop. I thought... there can't be people like that out there, right? Thanks for this. Just wow though.

It's poll taken from 852 people. Independents are at 50% in the same study.

[Catchall]

The only thing that President Trump didn't tell the truth about was the WHO's test not working, when actually it was the CDC's test that initially didn't work.

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The best thing Trump has done is get the CDC out of the way and let the states and the private sector go to work. Whatever role the CDC was meant to perform, they didn't effectively do it.