og15 wrote:Sofia wrote:Alize wrote:Ultra-competitive, if he wanted he would break Curry 3pt record.
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He could’ve broke the rebounding record too but he chose not to.
On that basis, he should be considered one of the best rebounders of all time.
Lol, yea, people can get very mythical about players.
I don't think this is a situation to dismiss, though, my observation has been that he was a better 3PT shooter than his percentages, and he would be at the least good in his prime as a 3PT shooter. Certainly nothing close to what some people who basically should loose all rights to have their comments taken seriously and with a straight face compare him to DeRozan for example.
It is a point I have made in the past. Statistics always need to be analyzed, they don't happen in a vacuum, and 3PT% doesn't happen in a vacuum. A players 3PT% doesn't always represent their 3PT shooting ability, we all know this, the amount of attempts, the quality of attempts, the role on the team, these are all factors.
That's why none of us look at Bird's 3PT% from 80-81 to 83-84 which was 25.7% on 0.9 3PA/G and think it was representative of his 3PT shooting ability even at that time. If we look at his first 6 seasons of his career, the more 3PA he took, the higher his percentage. This is very logical when we are talking about low 3PA from a first option. When the attempts are around 1 or fewer, then many more attempts are late clock, desperation, and heaves. The more you take, the more are good shots, and the higher your percentage.
Look at Bird's first 6 seasons and compare 3PA and 3PT% and rank in order:
0.7 3PA / 21.2% 3PT (Year 3)
0.9 3PA / 24.7% 3PT (Year 5)
0.9 3PA / 27.0% 3PT (Year 2)
1.0 3PA / 28.6% 3PT (Year 4)
1.6 3PA / 42.7% 3PT (Year 6)
1.7 3PA / 40.6% 3PT (Year 1)
If we take only the seasons where Bird shot 2+ 3PA, he was a 39.4% 3PT shooter on 2.8 3PA for his career. For first option players who will be the ones taking the late clock, desperation and heave shots, we generally won't be able to gauge true 3PT shooting ability with few attempts. The median 3PT% for very late clock 3PT shots this past season was around 26%, and that includes the late shots that might not necessarily have been bad, such as a late open catch and shoot, but the other shots drag that percentage down. The primary ball handlers / first options are going to be the ones that end up taking more of those types of shots, in a league where players/teams are barely shooting the three, a primary option is going to have a lot of the few three's they are taking be those kinds of shots. Obviously if you are a secondary scorer or role player, and you are catching and shooting very late clock after someone else has broken down the defense and created an open look, that's a different shot.
Here are some examples of player's percentages in very late clock this season:
Devonte Graham 1.5 3PA / 29.3%
Donovan Mitchell 1.3 3PA / 19.1%
James Harden 1.3 3PA / 27.6%
Chris Paul 1.1 3PA / 24.0%
Reggie Jackson 1.1 3PA / 33.3%
Luke Doncic 1.0 3PA / 6.9%
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Jamal Murray 0.8 3PA / 29.2%
Lebron James 0.8 3PA / 24.0%
Jimmy Butler 0.7 3PA / 21.1%
Stephen Curry (18-19) 0.6 3PA / 20.5%
We see that even a guy like Butler who only took 2.1 3PA this season, he still had 0.7 3PA late in the clock, that's almost half of his three point attempts, though he was still not good otherwise. Wade's best 3PT% seasons also correlated with his highest 3PA seasons, and his lowest 3PT% with his lowest attempts. We see a guy like DeRozan who all the combined seasons he took 1.5+ 3PA he shot 30% 3PT on average, but the last two seasons when he took the bare minimum, he's shot 20%, and that's simply because the relationship between 3PA and 3PT% is not linear. Role plays a factor, we have to separate catch and shoot guys and role players from primary ball handlers and scorers, then there's a threshold for primary scorers around the 2-3 3PA mark before their desperation shots start to get cancelled out in terms of how much they impact their percentage. Then of course depending on the player and their ability, there's also another upper limit where they start taking bad shots and their 3PT% could suffer, that one is harder to figure out.
Of course we want to differentiate pure speculation, from supported reasoning. So if a player NEVER actually takes more three's and never shoots well, all we have is speculation. In Jordan's case, his two highest 3PA seasons before the short line were his best 3PT shooting seasons, (2.9 3PA / 230 3PA / 35.2%) and (3.0 3PA / 245 3PA / 37.6%), then we have the sample of 5 playoff seasons, and 91 games where he shot 2.5 3PA / 35.7% 3PT (227 3PA), so we're not simply speculating, we're just projecting from ACTUAL happenings.
In terms of projecting him into a great 3PT shooter, or something, I don't care for that, he played in a different time where the 3PT shot was simply utilized differently and not a main focus. What I do think is important, especially since there's a lot of "how would this guy play now", and what are this players weaknesses, etc discussion going on, is to have a balanced and nuanced take that isn't simply looking at a stat and not doing any analysis.
Beautiful post, man. You really brought some of the data to back up my original surmising in January of this year, in terms of not only the low percentages that current players shoot late in the clock, but also the high number of attempts that occur in those situations. I think the case is very strong for Jordan's 3P% being a bad representation of his ability; it's strong logically, statistically, and based on the film from his career.
