Is Chet Holmgren going to be like a 7 foot Durant?

[IgorK]

This kid's a future bust. Feel free to @ me in 4 years.

[magee]

Durant is going to be a 6'10" Chet Holmgren.

[HotelVitale]

I don't get the Holmgren hype. He looks sloppy and slow. I guess this combination of length and skill are pretty rare though. The gold standard for guys with his frame is Kristaps. Check out this predraft workout video, it really highlights his unique coordination, strength, and athleticism. I don't see anything like this from Chet, and I struggle to imagine what his role would be in the NBA.

Watch on YouTube

Hmm, I don't see standout athleticism or coordination in the Porzingis video, think that might be a bit of hindsight there. He's not particuarly quick or explosive and a couple of those moves are really slow. The key for all these prospects is whether or not they can actually do their thing in the NBA, and basically everything that Porzingis showed in workouts--his jumper, his length, his finishing--has worked right from the jump in the NBA, which is something that almost never happens with those unicorn-y types. Most guys have a decent jumper but they might struggle to get it of cleanly or drill shots in games, or they might look strong and lithe around the rim but struggle finishing or rebounding in NBA-sized traffic, or can block shots against smaller guys but get juked a lot by NBA athletes, etc. KP was able to make all that stuff work, but you can't really tell if that's the case before it's happening. Workout video just won't tell you that.

Holmgren's workout videos would show a smooth jumper and far better ball-handling skills, and generally more ability to make things happen with the ball. Holmgren really dominated dudes in transition in HS despite being not super quick, crossovers, spins, cradling the balls, etc, and with really nice touch. They would also show him being insanely skinny. I think he's going to be a pretty fascinating prospect, could look horrible one minute and super special the next, I feel like I'm not that hype on him and it wouldn't surprise me if he's kinda awesome in college. One of the reasons prospect watching is fun, you really don't know until you know and the whole thing is full of surprises/reveals.

[DirtyDez]

Spitting in KD’s face is less offensive than this title lol.

[shotsquatch]

Porzingis is likely nearly 20 in that workout video (I think he turned 20 the year after the draft). The footage of Holmgren is at 18 (possibly 17, depending where you watch). For people who have grown that big, another year or two often makes a big difference in their body catching up with their height. It's also easier to look good in a workout that you've trained for specifically than even playing against below your level competition.

That being said, I do think that a lot of Chet's success will be determined by whether he fills out a bit. Like a lot of people in this thread, I watched the video of the game he played against Emoni Bates and thought he looked really good, so I think he has great potential to be a very good NBA player but his body has to cooperate.

Good point, Chet is just barely finishing up puberty lol. I'm not a Chet hater, just can't find any tape where he looks like a lock for the #1 pick.

I'm sure scouts are seeing stuff that I don't have access to. Their judgment is based on his performance over the course of entire games, not just mix-tapes and highlight reels. If he's a consistent shooter I can definitely see him being valuable at the NBA level.

Hmm, I don't see standout athleticism or coordination in the Porzingis video, think that might be a bit of hindsight there. He's not particuarly quick or explosive and a couple of those moves are really slow. The key for all these prospects is whether or not they can actually do their thing in the NBA, and basically everything that Porzingis showed in workouts--his jumper, his length, his finishing--has worked right from the jump in the NBA, which is something that almost never happens with those unicorn-y types. Most guys have a decent jumper but they might struggle to get it of cleanly or drill shots in games, or they might look strong and lithe around the rim but struggle finishing or rebounding in NBA-sized traffic, or can block shots against smaller guys but get juked a lot by NBA athletes, etc. KP was able to make all that stuff work, but you can't really tell if that's the case before it's happening. Workout video just won't tell you that.

Holmgren's workout videos would show a smooth jumper and far better ball-handling skills, and generally more ability to make things happen with the ball. Holmgren really dominated dudes in transition in HS despite being not super quick, crossovers, spins, cradling the balls, etc, and with really nice touch. They would also show him being insanely skinny. I think he's going to be a pretty fascinating prospect, could look horrible one minute and super special the next, I feel like I'm not that hype on him and it wouldn't surprise me if he's kinda awesome in college. One of the reasons prospect watching is fun, you really don't know until you know and the whole thing is full of surprises/reveals.

You don't see Kristap's athleticism in that video? I think he looks absolutely monstrous for a guy who is 7'3". He makes smooth explosive movements that I just don't see from Chet. There's a bit around the 2 minute mark where he takes it coast to coast a few times and shows off his speed and handle. Not necessarily impressive relative to other players, but given his gigantic height and build that level of coordination is incredible.

If Chet can shoot better than Porzingis, I think he'll be a good player. I'm also reading that scouts are high on his defensive potential. But I keep thinking back to Thon Maker, and wondering if people are being too quick to throw the "unicorn" label on any seven-footer who can do a crossover.

I wish high school mix-tapes weren't all dunks and blocks. I get the feeling that if scouts are this excited about Chet then he must have a much deeper skillset than what shows up on YouTube.

[SkyHookFTW]

I'm looking at this kid's body. Geez, it looks like a stiff wind would get the better of him.

[KuruptedCav]

Kevin Durant already is a 7 foot Durant

KD is maybe 6'10" with sneakers. I love how people run with these laughable narratives like KD is 7' and Zion weighs 285 lbs.

Wrong.

Speaking to Bob Fitzgerald on KNBR, Durant put fact over fiction when answering the age-old question of how tall he really is. “Since I love you guys so much, I was recorded at 6’10” and three-quarters with no shoes, so with my shoes on I’m 7-feet,” Durant finally revealed.

So, why has Durant been listed at 6-foot-9 for so long?

“I just like messin’ with people. They just ask me so much… yeah, I just like messin’ with people.”

KD for his height, with his handle and shooting stoke is the real unicorn.

https://www.slamonline.com/nba/kevin-durant-finally-admits-hes-7-feet-tall/

There is a bias against being listed at 7’0” and how players crossing that threshold get pigeoned into the Center position.

Goes the other way too. Ben Wallace and Charles Barkley claimed to be bigger than they were...


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[MarcusBrody]

Porzingis is likely nearly 20 in that workout video (I think he turned 20 the year after the draft). The footage of Holmgren is at 18 (possibly 17, depending where you watch). For people who have grown that big, another year or two often makes a big difference in their body catching up with their height. It's also easier to look good in a workout that you've trained for specifically than even playing against below your level competition.

That being said, I do think that a lot of Chet's success will be determined by whether he fills out a bit. Like a lot of people in this thread, I watched the video of the game he played against Emoni Bates and thought he looked really good, so I think he has great potential to be a very good NBA player but his body has to cooperate.

Good point, Chet is just barely finishing up puberty lol. I'm not a Chet hater, just can't find any tape where he looks like a lock for the #1 pick.

I'm sure scouts are seeing stuff that I don't have access to. Their judgment is based on his performance over the course of entire games, not just mix-tapes and highlight reels. If he's a consistent shooter I can definitely see him being valuable at the NBA level.

Hmm, I don't see standout athleticism or coordination in the Porzingis video, think that might be a bit of hindsight there. He's not particuarly quick or explosive and a couple of those moves are really slow. The key for all these prospects is whether or not they can actually do their thing in the NBA, and basically everything that Porzingis showed in workouts--his jumper, his length, his finishing--has worked right from the jump in the NBA, which is something that almost never happens with those unicorn-y types. Most guys have a decent jumper but they might struggle to get it of cleanly or drill shots in games, or they might look strong and lithe around the rim but struggle finishing or rebounding in NBA-sized traffic, or can block shots against smaller guys but get juked a lot by NBA athletes, etc. KP was able to make all that stuff work, but you can't really tell if that's the case before it's happening. Workout video just won't tell you that.

Holmgren's workout videos would show a smooth jumper and far better ball-handling skills, and generally more ability to make things happen with the ball. Holmgren really dominated dudes in transition in HS despite being not super quick, crossovers, spins, cradling the balls, etc, and with really nice touch. They would also show him being insanely skinny. I think he's going to be a pretty fascinating prospect, could look horrible one minute and super special the next, I feel like I'm not that hype on him and it wouldn't surprise me if he's kinda awesome in college. One of the reasons prospect watching is fun, you really don't know until you know and the whole thing is full of surprises/reveals.

You don't see Kristap's athleticism in that video? I think he looks absolutely monstrous for a guy who is 7'3". He makes smooth explosive movements that I just don't see from Chet. There's a bit around the 2 minute mark where he takes it coast to coast a few times and shows off his speed and handle. Not necessarily impressive relative to other players, but given his gigantic height and build that level of coordination is incredible.

If Chet can shoot better than Porzingis, I think he'll be a good player. I'm also reading that scouts are high on his defensive potential. But I keep thinking back to Thon Maker, and wondering if people are being too quick to throw the "unicorn" label on any seven-footer who can do a crossover.

I wish high school mix-tapes weren't all dunks and blocks. I get the feeling that if scouts are this excited about Chet then he must have a much deeper skillset than what shows up on YouTube.

These are the highlights from the game where Holmgren and Emoni Bates's AAU teams square off. Bates's team has another five star prospect

Watch on YouTube

Holmgren starts a bit slow and makes some poor passes in the first quarter or so, but then settles and looks good. He handles the ball really well for someone so tall. His best move seems to be a LeBron-special angled drive and spin (there is one at 6:45 or so but I don't think it's the best I just can't find the other now), and he shows really good body control with it. He hits a few threes from pretty deep (there's on at 9:45 with him dribbling out of the corner and getting a screen. He passes well off his drive once he settles down. At 14:45 or so there is a good sequence where Holmgren rejects Emoni Bates at the rim than maybe 15 seconds later brings the ball up the floor, crosses Bates over over and holds him off as he goes down the lane a dunk. I think the Durant comparison does come from the lanky motion of his very good for his size dribbling and shooting.

He blocks a lot of shots in this game, but it mostly seems like a tall person blocking shorter people's shots. Same with rebounding. I wasn't impressed with his positioning as he often stood too far under the basket and got pinned there as he reached up. He can work on both those things.

I definitely don't think that Holmgren is going to be mistaken for high school LeBron, but no one really is. This game had two top prospects (and some other very good ones) and Holmgren looked good. I'll be eager to see how things develop for him.

[NO-KG-AI]

He’s not nearly as explosive or as strong as Durant, even with how weak Durant was at 17.

All these great shooting bigs never come close to replicating Durant’s versatility in his shooting talent.


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[HotelVitale]

Hmm, I don't see standout athleticism or coordination in the Porzingis video, think that might be a bit of hindsight there. He's not particuarly quick or explosive and a couple of those moves are really slow. The key for all these prospects is whether or not they can actually do their thing in the NBA, and basically everything that Porzingis showed in workouts--his jumper, his length, his finishing--has worked right from the jump in the NBA, which is something that almost never happens with those unicorn-y types. Most guys have a decent jumper but they might struggle to get it of cleanly or drill shots in games, or they might look strong and lithe around the rim but struggle finishing or rebounding in NBA-sized traffic, or can block shots against smaller guys but get juked a lot by NBA athletes, etc. KP was able to make all that stuff work, but you can't really tell if that's the case before it's happening. Workout video just won't tell you that.

You don't see Kristap's athleticism in that video? I think he looks absolutely monstrous for a guy who is 7'3". He makes smooth explosive movements that I just don't see from Chet. There's a bit around the 2 minute mark where he takes it coast to coast a few times and shows off his speed and handle. Not necessarily impressive relative to other players, but given his gigantic height and build that level of coordination is incredible. If Chet can shoot better than Porzingis, I think he'll be a good player. I'm also reading that scouts are high on his defensive potential. But I keep thinking back to Thon Maker, and wondering if people are being too quick to throw the "unicorn" label on any seven-footer who can do a crossover. I wish high school mix-tapes weren't all dunks and blocks. I get the feeling that if scouts are this excited about Chet then he must have a much deeper skillset than what shows up on YouTube.

I see some athleticism but I don't see the sort of high-end athleticism that assures you the player will be able to impose his will in the NBA. Pretty much anyone but the worst stiffs can get up and throw down an open dunk or run to a spot quickly, and many other players each year in the draft are more quick/explosive leapers than KP. KP for example definitely wasn't more nimble than Thon Maker or Biyombo or any of a million other mobile-ish bigs who didn't amount to much. I was basically a KP advocate in that draft--or rather I spent a lot of time telling people why calling him an instant bust were off base--but you were really just betting blind on his upside. He wasn't particularly good in his euro years--he played hard and showed some decent in-game skills so there was no reason to doubt him but he hadn't been great or put up numbers at any level. Drafting is hard. (I'm also not sure what highlight you're talking about, everything around the 2 minute mark looks pretty pedestrian to me and none of it is happening at NBA speed.)

Holmgren's going to show us a lot more over the next year to help determine if he can keep up defensively and if his skill game will work against grown NBA dudes. Will still be a lot of guess work but it'll be a lot less than if he were to be coming out now. He's a very unusual prospect, but it's honestly always a guessing game about inches and speed. Put differently--most lotto picks can dominate or stand out in many settings but it's often very unclear if they can do it at the NBA level. Seems like there's definitely a cut-off point for that for Holmgren, since so much relies on his combo of height/length+skills vs skinniness/lack of elite explosion.

And yeah those dunk mixtapes are pretty worthless, I usually search for "game highlights" and those often give a better sense. The best are the ones that track every possession a player used but those are rare for prospects.

[Optms]

The White American NBA player has been in shambles since Larry Bird. They've been surpassed by everyone, including the world. So for this reason I have to say RIP Chet Holmgren chances. KD level? Maybe some day. But not tomorrow. Lets lower our expectations.

[clyde21]

I'm looking at this kid's body. Geez, it looks like a stiff wind would get the better of him.

wait till you see Victor Wembanyama

[NYPiston]

His skill is on that level, he's special, but he is way skinnier than even Texas Durant. It's one of the oddest body types I've ever seen in a top athlete and I'm not sure he has the frame to tack on much weight so it's a concern but man, that skill level is off the charts and he has that killer mentality to be a great player. People talk about Mobley being a 7 foot unicorn? Nah. This kid is the unicorn.

[Shock Defeat]

Need to see how many tweets he has to really be able to compare. If he is not even close to Durant in # of tweets per day then I am off his bandwagon.

[Lockdown504090]

i dont know how he can stay healthy over a whole season like this, and if he bulks up too quickly( more than 8 lbs of muscle per year) its going to mess with his athleticism(see bamba).

[Lalouie]

Kevin Durant already is a 7 foot Durant

kd is both 6'11 AND 7'

he said he's 6'11 but 7' when he's talking to women

[Wonka]

With his body, I think the likelihood that he becomes Zach Collins is more likely. Some promise, but the best ability is availability.

[Ice Trae]

Need to see how he’ll do in college but atm I’m not high on him at all

[shangrila]

Crystal ball says yes

[Big J]

Kevin Durant already is a 7 foot Durant

kd is both 6'11 AND 7'

he said he's 6'11 but 7' when he's talking to women

I grow an inch when I'm with women also.