Why do most people still think Embiid is better than Jokic?

[TTP]

This has been posted multiple times, but you don't seem to want to admit it:
Career Playoff stats

Joel Embiid: 22.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 3.7 TO 43 FG%, 28 3P%, PER: 21
Nikola Jokic: 24.7 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 6.9 APG, 3.0 TO 51 FG%, 41 3P%, PER 27
The difference in scoring efficiency is incredible.

Admit what? You're listing a bunch of stats that might correlate with winning, and I've listed stats that correlate significantly more. Those stats don't acknowledge defense at all, and there's a mammoth difference in the defenses each player has anchored in the playoffs.

The stat that correlates most with winning is whether your team outscored your opponents when you're on the floor- that's literally the win condition!

On court data in conjunction with on/off data is far more valuable than all of that stuff you quoted.

The Sixers have outscored their opponents by more with Embiid on the floor in his playoff career than the Nuggets have with Jokic. Embiid's career playoff on/offs are better than Jokic's as well.

You are cherry picking stats. But if you insist on using on/off stats

Career Playoff BPM:
Jokic: 9.3
Embiid: 4.1

Next...

I'm not cherry picking. I'm using a far superior stat that correlates with winning far more, and I've always been consistent in using it in NBA related arguments. BPM is literally a box score stat that may or may not correlate with winning.

[Woodsanity]

Because he plays something called defense.

This is a really bizarre argument that I always see. The assumption here is that Embiid is similar to Jokic offensively so his defense gives him the edge.

Except it isn't the case here, Embiid isn't even in the same stratosphere as Jokic offensively. Jokic anchors a top 3 offense. Embiid anchors a top 15 offense which is not good for a "30 ppg scorer" with one all star and a border-line all star on his team and multiple competent shooters like Seth Curry and Danny Green shooting over 40% on high volume.

This is like a Giannis vs Steph Curry comparison. Steph is a mediocre defender, Giannis is a "two way player" except Giannis is a higher impact offensive player than Embiid to be honest.

[TTP]

Because he plays something called defense.

This is a really bizarre argument that I always see. The assumption here is that Embiid is similar to Jokic offensively so his defense gives him the edge.

Except it isn't the case here, Embiid isn't even in the same stratosphere as Jokic offensively. Jokic anchors a top 3 offense. Embiid anchors a top 15 offense which is not good for a "30 ppg scorer" with one all star and a border-line all star on his team and multiple competent shooters like Seth Curry and Danny Green shooting over 40% on high volume.

This is like a Giannis vs Steph Curry comparison. Steph is a mediocre defender, Giannis is a "two way player" except Giannis is a higher impact offensive player than Embiid to be honest.

Here you go being disingenuous again after you ignored my response to you about it in the other thread.

Sixers offense with Embiid on the floor this season is 119.3.

You can criticize him for not playing more, but implying that Embiid doesn't anchor a great offense in the minutes he plays is just false.

You know what you're doing too, you just won't admit it.

[TTP]

BTW this is multi-year playoff RAPM for 1998-2019. I can't find any data that also includes 2019-20 but if someone else has it, I'd appreciate it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/db5hpt/19982019_playoffs_rapm_1_lebron_james_1_draymond/

Embiid's 2019-20 will drag him down slightly, but it's still remarkable that he has a reputation as a poor playoff performer. Small sample size for sure, but +7.0 so far in the playoffs is elite by any metric.

[PistolPeteJR]

Well if we're talking about winning, either have won anything of note, so that's kind of a moot point.

For me though, it's pretty simple: Jokic is an elite offensive player, and a below-average defender. Embiid is a really good offensive player, and an elite defender. Center is the only position where both things probably matter equally. Therefore, gimme Embiid.

I've always thought that Embiid has a slight edge as a player over Jokic. However, given that Jokic never gets hurt and Embiid is just by default going to miss 20-30% of each season, I'll take Jokic. His overall production is better than Embiid by virtue of being more available.

In my opinion, if you’re going to argue Jokic > Embiid, this is the only legitimate route to take. If both had the same availability, I wouldn’t be able to see it.

[Wonka]

Rudy gobert better than both of them on both ends. Idk why hes not the frontrunner for mvp. most dunks in a season, defensive player, his rolling to the rim gives him playmaking, sets great screen assists. Hes way better than Nicole and Embum

LOL. BUMP.

Gobert isn’t every going to be anywhere near the MVP discussion. Ever. Multiple NBA players have repeatedly made inferences to him being one of the easiest guys to score on in the league as well.

[DreamTeam09]

26-29 pts is similar, but 8ast to 3ast are two totally different types of players. I'd take Jokic everytime but Embiid is a monster and no slouch. I just like the fact that my big can run the teams offense and get his at the same time. That's crazy to me.

[Couch Potato]

Rudy gobert better than both of them on both ends. Idk why hes not the frontrunner for mvp. most dunks in a season, defensive player, his rolling to the rim gives him playmaking, sets great screen assists. Hes way better than Nicole and Embum

Gobert D is nice. But 14 PPG isn't that exciting for a starting star player. Probably why one of the last players picked in All Star game. Gobert is in better shape for weight though. Joker and Embiid are kinda flabby.

[NuggetsWY]

Who is the greatest center of all-time results in comparing players that played different styles and that's Embiid vs Jokic. The two teams have been built around those centers and they play different styles for their centers.

Box score watchers are going to prefer Embiid, for the most part; or so it seems.

Also, Embiid gets more television/media exposure because he's from a big market on the East Coast.

If someone thinks Embiid is better than Jokic, I'm okay with that.
If someone thinks Jokic is better than Embiid, I'm okay with that.

After all, everyone has the right to be wrong. My choice? I'd love to have them both on the same team.

[bebopdeluxe]

Why do people think that Embiid is better than Jokic?

Because he is.

A guy who EVERY TEAM double and triple teams every time he touches the ball AND a top-3 DPOY player.

Is this a trick question?

[hoosierdaddy34]

Because there are 2 sides to basketball, it’s not just about offense. Embiid is a great offensive player and a elite defensive player. Jokic is a elite offensive player and an average defender.

[Dupp]

So far, they aren’t even close as far as playoff performers go. Jokic has been substantially better.

[Dnt hate]

Media and casuals almost always say winning/playoff performance is the end all be all for deciding which players are the best.
Well Jokic's playoff resume is head and shoulders above what Embiid has done. It makes zero sense...Jokic's playoff numbers are better...he's gone farther in the post season...like why...why is this even a debate. Jokic is clearly the best Center in the world and it's driving me insane that so many people still believe Embiid is better. Skip Bayless can't even remember his name Why can't Jokic get a fair shake..

Career Playoff stats]

Joel Embiid: 22.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 3.7 TO 43 FG%, 28 3P%

Nikola Jokic: 24.7 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 6.9 APG, 3.0TO 51 FG%, 41 3P%

The "he's gone farther in the post season" argument sounds great but look at it a different way - a tale of two jumpers that decided the fate of this narrative.

If Kawhi misses his miracle shot at the end of game 7 in 2019, there's a very real chance that Philly advances that series, a series in which Philly massively dominated in the minutes Joel was on the floor, and got destroyed in the minutes he sat. The Sixers were +90 in the minutes Embiid played against the Raptors and -109 in the minutes he sat. He played 45 minutes in game 7 and they were +10, and they were -12 in the less than 3 minutes he sat. Those stats you linked massively underrate the defensive impact difference between the players - the Sixers defense gave up only 95.7 points per 100 that postseason during his minutes. What more could he have done?

If Conley makes his miracle shot at the end of game 7 in 2020, Denver gets knocked out in round 1 in a series that the Nuggets got outscored in the minutes Jokic was on the floor. The Nuggets were actually outscored while Jokic was on the floor for that entire playoffs - they essentially lost during his minutes.

The fate of this narrative was decided for each by players on the other team. Hell, Embiid at least managed to get a good contest on Kawhi on the shot, whereas Jokic wasn't even on the floor for the Conley jumper. So you're telling me that if Kawhi misses and the Sixers advance, and Conley makes his shot and the Nuggets don't, you're suddenly going to give Embiid the edge...for something that wasn't even in his control?

The playoff argument isn't even reasonable. The Sixers are +7.0 with Embiid on the floor in the playoffs with +14.2 on/offs. The Nuggets are +1.2 with Jokic on the floor in the playoffs with +8.7 on/offs. The Sixers have won the Embiid playoff minutes by a bigger margin, and he's elevated them more when he's been off.

You're judging and penalizing Embiid individually for his lack of team success in the playoffs because the Sixers have gotten destroyed in the minutes that he's sat. That's pretty unreasonable.

To you, the difference between Jokic having a better playoff reputation than Embiid, rather than being seen as a playoff choker, is literally a Mike Conley jumper - consider that.

This^ . Very well said.

[AlexanderRight]

Jokic has played way more games and is carrying a bigger load while basically matching the Sixers record. He’s the MVP. Swap Simmons with Murray, you know damn well the Nuggets come out better.

[Sharkboy242]

Admit what? You're listing a bunch of stats that might correlate with winning, and I've listed stats that correlate significantly more. Those stats don't acknowledge defense at all, and there's a mammoth difference in the defenses each player has anchored in the playoffs.

The stat that correlates most with winning is whether your team outscored your opponents when you're on the floor- that's literally the win condition!

On court data in conjunction with on/off data is far more valuable than all of that stuff you quoted.

The Sixers have outscored their opponents by more with Embiid on the floor in his playoff career than the Nuggets have with Jokic. Embiid's career playoff on/offs are better than Jokic's as well.

You are cherry picking stats. But if you insist on using on/off stats

Career Playoff BPM:
Jokic: 9.3
Embiid: 4.1

Next...

I'm not cherry picking. I'm using a far superior stat that correlates with winning far more, and I've always been consistent in using it in NBA related arguments. BPM is literally a box score stat that may or may not correlate with winning.

You know what correlates with winning even more? Actually winning. And Jokic seems to have done more of that in the playoffs. Your whole post on tale of two jumpers is an interesting thought experiment, but the fact of the matter is not only did the nuggets beat the Jazz, they went on to defeat a title favorite team there-after. Basketball is a game of inches and history will be written as such. They got lucky once but you can't just chalk up what happens next to luck as well lol (or in your case, not even mention it).

And yes it definitely seems like you are cherry picking data. On/Off is a useful stat. What's not as useful is using it solely to track an individual. On/off is better suited for seeing of how certain units work together. In the context of the playoffs, there's less staggering between starters and the bench so its not a stretch to say that Jokic' on/off will strongly correlate with certain players. A lot of those players flat out aren't that good. Grant sucked in that series. Morris had to start in place of Harris and is a bad defender. Millsap is old and a liability defending the perimeter. MPJ was a rookie. Craig is a 2 way contract value player. Those were the main guys right there, plus Murray. To walk away from that series and conclude that the Nuggets would have been better off without Jokic is silly, and it violates occam's razor. We can't look at on/off and not even consider who the main pairings are/were.

A superficial argument will suffice: Jokic has played against better teams in the playoffs (Mitchell/Gobert who are now the no. seed, and the reigning finals MVP Kawhi), he's gone further in the playoffs, and he's put up better numbers. If you want to complicate it more than that and argue that the Nuggets have a better collective unit then go ahead. Just bear in mind that two seasons ago they were the youngest no. 2 seeded team in history and Jokic has never played alongside another all-star.

With all that being said, things can change quickly and this is hardly a convincing lead. There's plenty of time for narratives to change.

[Roger Murdock]

Why do people think that Embiid is better than Jokic?

Because he is.

A guy who EVERY TEAM double and triple teams every time he touches the ball AND a top-3 DPOY player.

Is this a trick question?

If Jokic got double and triple teamed every time he touched the ball he'd lead the league in assists and the Nuggets would score out of their minds. Embiid gets double teamed because he can't punish it nearly as effectively as Jokic can, not because he's some unstoppable threat you have to throw bodies at.

Also Embiid isnt a top3 DPOY candidate although he came in 2nd 3 years ago.

[DCasey91]

I think Embiid is a way better archetype to a Championship winning team, NBA history is littered with his exact type dominate two way big men.

I can’t think of any Championship roster that didn’t have a good/elite amount of interior/rim protection.

Also Embiid hasn’t played with the correct setup so far. Get an elite smaller guy ggs league (same goes for Giannis too.)

If there was a two year window at the thing I’d take Embiid. Jokic most likely will have a more decorated individual career but I’m not buying his equity for now.

[MTJazzv3]

Rudy gobert better than both of them on both ends. Idk why hes not the frontrunner for mvp. most dunks in a season, defensive player, his rolling to the rim gives him playmaking, sets great screen assists. Hes way better than Nicole and Embum

LOL. BUMP.

Gobert isn’t every going to be anywhere near the MVP discussion. Ever. Multiple NBA players have repeatedly made inferences to him being one of the easiest guys to score on in the league as well.

Nice. You wanna back that up with some evidence? Its laughable on the surface: "Yeah, the reigning 2 time DPOY is the easiest guy in the league to score on." New level of absurd hot takes.

[Mickey8]

They are both great players and its great that centers are back in the guard oriented league. The main issue here is , that one player is getting so much good publicity , media hype and is protected by the refs and other is openly disrespected, on all three fronts.

[mcmurphy]

What a well-reasoned, nuanced counterargument. I'd say you can do better, but so far, the evidence indicates the opposite.

No sane person would seriously discuss this claim:

Jokic lost the minutes he was on the floor the year they went to the WCF but because the Nuggets performed better while he was on the bench, they advanced.

You mean that fact? They got outscored when he was on the floor that playoffs.

They scored 115.5 per 100 and gave up 119.0 per 100 with Jokic on the floor that playoffs, meaning they were outscored by 3.5.

They scored 107.4 per 100 and gave up 107.9 per 100 with Jokic on the bench that playoffs, meaning they were outscored by 0.5.

You win a basketball game by outscoring your opponents. Specifically, you need to score more points than you give up on the other end. The Nuggets didn't do that with Jokic on the floor during those playoffs. They didn't do it with Jokic off the floor either, but it was significantly closer. Hell, they even took Jokic off the floor in crunch time of game 7 vs the Jazz.

The main issue here is that you're unwilling to be objective and make a well-reasoned argument using data to support your claims. You're clearly a Jokic fan so you're unwilling to be objective, so you resort to comments like "get serious" and "no sane person would seriously discuss this claim". If you could do better than that, you would, but you clearly are not capable.

Meanwhile, I've stated multiple times that I think Jokic should be MVP, that several others should be considered at or above the level of Embiid this year (Gobert, LeBron, Curry, etc). I've also stated that Embiid's numbers were awful last year, and I've criticized countless Sixers players.

If you were capable of being objective rather than a biased fanboy, we might actually be able to have a reasonable discussion.

Ok dude, how do you explain this?

Jokic is capable of play defense... when count...

Unlike the first seasons where he took stupid fouls at the beginning of the game that affected the whole game now he is much more careful... you have to consider that practically in the Nuggets he fills 2 roles, PG and C he is fundamental for his team...

Jokic DefRtg
1Q 113.9 (111.7 avg Team 1Q)
4Q 104.5 (107.0 avg Team 4Q)


The same datas from Embiid:
DefRtg
1Q 100.6 (101.6 avg Team 1Q)
4Q 110.8 (102.9 avg Team 4Q)

WTF we're talking about??